YouGov: 56-44 to Labor in New South Wales

A new poll finding Labor on course for a clear win in New South Wales, plus news on preselection developments over recent weeks.

Today’s Sunday Telegraph has a YouGov poll suggesting Labor is headed for a comfortable win at the New South Wales state election on March 25, leading the Coalition 56-44 on two-party preferred and 39% to 33% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11% and others on 17%. The poll also encompasses questions on the Dominic Perrotet Nazi costume scandal (67% say it won’t affect their vote, 20% say it will make them less likely to vote Coalition, and 8% demonstrate the problems with this sort of question by saying it makes them more likely to vote Coalition), cashless gaming cards (61% are in favour with 19% opposed), better party to deal with the cost of living (30% Labor, 25% Liberal, 26% neither) and issue salience (39% cost of living, 17% economy, 14% health, 10% each for housing affordability and environment). The poll was conducted January 14 to 17 from a sample of 1069.

Other recent election-related news:

• Labor-turned-independent MP Tania Mihailuk has joined One Nation and will run as the second candidate on the party’s Legislative Council ticket behind Mark Latham. Mihailuk quit the ALP in October, a month after being dumped from the shadow ministry after she raised allegations in parliament about links with Eddie Obeid, for which no evidence could be found my an independent investigation completed last week. Latham was elected in 2019 and will cut short his eight-year term to run again to improve the party’s chances of electing a second member.

• Canterbury-Bankstown mayor Khal Asfour has withdrawn from his plum position on Labor’s Legislative Council ticket, complaining of a “smear campaign” that included extensive reportage on his council expenses claims in the Daily Telegraph. However, Chris Minns said Asfour had made the right decision as the claims were unacceptable, and promised to reform council allowances if Labor wins the election. Tania Mihailuk’s breach with Labor, noted above, relates to accusations she made against Asfour in parliament over alleged dealings with Eddie Obeid, for which Asfour was cleared by an independent investigation earlier this month.

• Lawyer and factional conservative Katie Mullens is set to succeed the retiring Geoff Lee as Liberal candidate for Parramatta, emerging as the only preselection candidate standing following the withdrawal of Tanya Raffoul, chief-of-staff to David Elliott of the centre right. James O’Doherty of The Daily Telegraph reports that Raffoul’s decision was made “amid concerns any preselection vote would be tainted by members signed up to the Liberal Party with fake emails”, six local party members having been expelled from the party last month for allegedly using false emails to sign up members. Labor’s candidate is local lord mayor Donna Davis, who was chosen at the behest of Chris Minns without a ballot of the local membership.

• Chris Minns will face an independent challenge in his seat of Kogarah from Troy Stolz, a former auditor for ClubsNSW who is being sued by the organisation after he leaked a report disclosing failures by poker machine venues to comply with money laundering and counter-terrorism laws. Stolz has been critical of Minns’ nuanced response to Dominic Perrottet’s push for cashless gaming cards, as recommended by a NSW Crime Commission report into the use of poker machines for money laundering.

Max Maddison of The Australian reported on January 3 that Liberal Democrats members were in revolt over the disendorsement of the party’s lead Legislative Council candidate, former Liberal Party activist John Ruddick. The decision was carried by a four-to-three vote of the state executive over allegations of bullying and abuse, and will now be referred to a special general meeting before the end of the month.

• Labor’s new candidate for Ryde is Lyndal Howison, a teacher and former communications and marketing manager who ran unsuccessfully for the federal seat of Bennelong in 2016. The party’s original candidate, local doctor Franscisco Valencia, withdrew in December after an apprehended violence order was sought against him over an alleged domestic incident.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

131 comments on “YouGov: 56-44 to Labor in New South Wales”

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  1. Thanks William.
    This poll result, two months out from the NSW election, is very encouraging for those of us who wish to be rid of the current LNP administration.
    However, this 8% margin needs to be applied universally across NSW in order for the ALP to win the ten seats required to form majority government.
    If this polling result can hold up to election day, it could make the election night tally extremely interesting.

  2. seems promising the anti gambling wedge has failed with mins policy and now perrottit would semingly have a weaker policy only managing to join minns in promising baning club donations and the poleing suggests it is not even a main campaign ishue mostvoters dont care if the premier excludes reajonal clubs it will fall apart minns could eazily dump his own policy think latham will struggle in upper house will win his seat but mihayliouk will not get up suprised he chose her if i was a long time one nation member i would be anoyed that a new members has been parashuted in to a posible upper house in stead of a long term member just shows apart from latham they have no tallent

  3. Good YouGov result for Labor. Will Perrottet resign to give way to a moderate, for the sake of retaining power for the Coalition? Most likely not, as he is a man of faith, and men of faith always believe in miracles (just ask Morrison).

  4. “… she raised allegations in parliament about links with Eddie Obeid”….

    How much anti-ALP juice there is still in the Eddie Obeid saga in NSW?… Haven’t Murdoch and the Libs extracted all of it already?

  5. ALPO. Its actually the Nine Papers that love a bit of Eddie Obeid action. Quite obsessed. Especially McClymont who seems to appear anytime they want to give Eddie and bad Labor a run.

  6. It’s interesting that the 2PP is now getting to a level, that with the unknown factors in some seats, which involves the Teals, Greens and other independents, and despite optional preferencing, that a change of government is now a real possibility but not assured.
    Election night will be most interesting, particularly so and depending on the political guests invited to attend the various media outlets.
    The upper house could throw up some potential difficulties for the side able to form government in the lower house.
    I believe the anti-Morrison pandemic is still rampant and will be evident with the direction of voting from the younger voters.
    The reaction to the stalled housing market may yet play out.
    The “Perrottet is a nerd” emoji has developed as an agent of change.
    The Nationals will trumpet the City v Country fixture to their advantage as usual.
    Most of the urban centres will remained drug and alcohol obsessed, devotees of fast and loud cars, more interested in the upcoming footy season while paying lip service to the environment.
    The Murdoch venom is yet to be dolloped upon a weary electorate as they navigate the congested roadways and trains toward their mortgaged riddled castles leaving very little time to contemplate the overcrowded and understaffed hospitals and their old age in homes belonging to someone else.

  7. problim is mihayliouk is hardly a known mp i thought a former liberal mp would have been mor effective mihayloouk has little use now that asfour is gone from upper house ticket must be little tallint in one nationlatham will probaly secure a seat but he is largily a liberal partysuporter desbite not liking gladis

  8. i think bankstown would have one of the lowist votes in the state mihaylouk clearly did not have much labor values latham will get in largily on the nile sff vote not sure if borsak will win

  9. i dought obead will have much impact he has largily been forgottin by now the media seem to have litle to report on minns they have the former nsw labor secretary but he is not a house hold name the strange thing is the nsw greens seem invizable know talk of a green slide in nsw the party suffers from no nsw leader shoebridge was basickly leader but he now is in senate and the othergreens mps would struggle to have any publick profile jeny leong is perhaps the closist

  10. What do NSW bludgers think is going to happen in the 2019 SFF seats; Barwon, Orange and Murray?

    Which sitting Indies can win again?

  11. 56/44 in Labor’s favour. Cue the hung parliament rhetoric in the main stream media. If 56/44 returned a hung parliament, even with OPV, the whole system would need a radical overhaul.

    I see there aren’t a great number of marginal LNP seats in NSW, but a result of that magnitude will see surprising results further up the pendulum. 56/44 in Victoria, consistent with all the polling produced a Danslide. As it should.

    Centrist and left voters have well and truly bought in to the ‘the polls can’t be trusted’ rhetoric despite clear evidence to the contrary. Oz 2019, Brexit and US2016 were all in the margin of error, and in the case of the latter two, had the non-compulsory voting asterisk. US polling 2022 was deliberately skewed and fuelled by partisan polls.

    NSW Labor will win with a thumping majority.

    * I concede I am an anti-lnp partisan, for the record.

  12. In a 56-44 results seats that were not on the radar and had no campaign resources put in them would be falling.
    Looking like a majority ALP win.

  13. Fantasising about hung parliament is the media’s way of projecting itself into the fray. Some reporting would make a nice change. The Labor primary will be suppressed a bit because of tactical voting in Lib held seats with Teal candidates, providing the LNP remnants with straws to clutch at after their inevitable pasting

    Eliott’s action in bringing Perrotet’s adventure in Nazi uniform to public attention(purely to assist, of course…) is not the sort of atmospherics that comes out of a government that had any chance of being returned, no matter how much they all hate each other. And 56-44 speaks for itself

  14. agree plus nsw labor seems united foor the first time minns was smart in getting prue carr as deputy she has a lot of mpsuport especialy in right faction and is also close friends with western sydney mps and ryan park minns had toput others in his team as he had only a few suporters he is running a smart campaign focusing on cost of living but not being to negative on covid plus he has the backing of the big unions like awu plus the twu thelathams pick foor one nation seems silly now asfour is gone

  15. elliotts action damaged perrottit plus the much gambling policy backed buy the herald to triy and save perrottit still has not been anowsed the herald just looks stupid triying to build up a naritive against minns and then the liberals cant deliver ap policy in time and now cashlis gaming is not a ishue that any one cares about elliott and his centre right faction lead buy hawke dont like premier i think penrith will fall to labor

  16. Interesting that the Sydney Morning Herald pushing the benefits of a cashless gaming card in the pubs and clubs doesn’t show up in the polling as a major election issue for voters, if this poll can be believed.
    If you believe the SMH and their editorial staff and some letter writers, Minns not supporting a cashless gaming card without a 12 month trial is apparently a negative for the ALP and a plus for the Premier.
    Overall, 56-44 would deliver a majority Labor Government in NSW, albeit that crossbench in the Lower House would probably grow.
    The seats Minns needs to pick up – Leppington, East Hills, Penrith, Oatley, Holsworthy. Miranda is a roughie, because the Labor candidate is Simon Earl, the bloke who got a fair swing against Scomo in Cook in the federal election last year – he’s a good campaigner. Parramatta is a chance too, Donna Davis the local mayor is the Labor candidate, Liberal long time MP Geoff Lee is retiring.

  17. With Lyndal Howison endorsed for Ryde, Ryde Councillor Penny Pederson is now confirmed in Lane Cove for Labor. Watch this one – it almost certainly won’t fall but there will be a big swing to Labor. Much will depend on the attitude of the Teal backed IND – if her voters preference ALP rather than exhaust, there will be a very large 2PP swing. Same with the Greens.

  18. Evan – there is a Teal backed candidate in North Shore and Lane Cove – but not Willoughby, so your list needs modifications.

    North Shore will be a close battle – perhaps with multiple candidates which will probably help the sitting Liberal. I can’t see the Teal IND getting ahead of Labor in Lane Cove.

  19. On those numbers, you’d think Labor would form majority government. But remember that the electoral pendulum is stacked against them. A uniform 2PP swing of 5.5% to the ALP in Sydney would yield just Penrith and East Hills. The ALP swing needs to be more like the 7-8% this poll implies to have a good shot at majority government. Of course swings won’t be uniform, a seat like Parramatta on 6.5% may be very vulnerable as a high profile incumbent has retired.

    There was an inquiry about the prospects of independents. I reckon Greg Piper in Lake Mac and Alex Greenwich in Sydney are sure of re-election, and would support a minority ALP government if it comes to that. Joe McGirr in Wagga has a big majority, but that was due to the smell from corrupt former member Daryl Maguire. My guess is McGirr holds.

    Who knows what happens to the 3 former SFF Indies. The Nationals did quite well in the Federal and Vic polls. My guess is they take back Murray and Barwon, but Philip Donato in Orange has been around a while and has a healthy majority, and may hold.

    The Greens will surely hold Newtown, and you’d think they’d retain hipster territory like Balmain even though the incumbent has retired. Ballina will be a 3-way Green/ALP/National contest again.

    There will be opportunities for new teal independents in electorates like Willoughby and Manly. The Dai Le/Frank Carbonne machine may threaten Labor in Fairfield and Cabramatta. It’s possible the election becomes an ALP bow-out based on this poll, but I think there’s a strong possibility there will continue to be a large cross-bench which will make majority government hard to achieve. It’s going to be a fascinating election night!

  20. Primary votes speak for themselves, Labor up 5-6% and the Liberals down 8%.

    Evan, three things with the cashless gaming card. One, the smh is not as powerful as it once was, and has considerably less clout than anyone who works there think it does. No bad thing for them to find that out.

    Two, campaigning on a subject that has majority backing in the electorate, but a soft majority, only goes so far. Who cares what the pokie policy is when catching a train is somewhat of a lottery in itself? The Government ends up getting marked down on indifference to the needs of the electorate, however worthy the small fight.

    Finally, as the argument continues, it plays into pre-existing negative connotations of the Government. The one rule for the rich and one for the rest of us was was the first impressions of the Premier for most. A policy that tells people that you have a limit on the amount you can spend on pokies, but those outside of Sydney or are wealthy don’t have or can change, perpetuates this impression.

  21. i dont think the cashlis gaming card is a big ishue at all i dought weather many voters care how ever perottit has no policy so i dont how it could be a plus for him only problim is labor has no candadates in fairfield cabramatta and riverstone i think minns is sceen as a nice guy where as perottit comes a cros as a typical private school person who is not overly relatible very conservative desbite herald atempting to protend he is progresive i think labor can win penrith east hills and lepington ayres is not campaigning much

  22. i think the cashlis card pushed buy the herald is not a plus most people dont care iva way but it plays in tothe premier being a moral cristian extremist pushing a social conservative agenda when it is not realy a main stream ishue basickly a culture war argumetnt he isprobaly the bigest drag comes a cros as stiff and unfriendly a corear poliitician with you cant relate to where as minns comes a cros as relatively friendly and low key

  23. 56/44 is a 8% swing. As opposed to 52/48 in favour of the liberals last time. Importantly Labor outpolls the liberals in primary votes. This means the opv bonus goes to Labor where it favoured the lnp. Some one asked what happens in the ex sff independent seats. I think they will all be reelected

  24. even on policys he has fallin in to the trap of saying one thing to inner city voters and an other to the suberbs and reajons in iner city kean claims the liberals have a great environment record on climate change desbite distroying colars and vegitation how evr in penrith to save Ayres perottit said he did not care if plants got distroyed buy the dam wall he is no gladis who putting aside ceruption aligations came a cros as a reasonably friendly hard working mp who was more interested in serving the comunity then premoating her slef she was relatible and did not push morale culture wars like gambling redform and triy to claim she was better then evry one else

  25. well the so called teels have a impact they had no real impact in victoria acsept helping the liberals winn a seat buy splitting the vote people buy now have worked out that teels are no friend of labor just basickly turnbull style so called moderit liberals pluspublickly has forgottin about this gaming card minns released his policy and perottit is missing

  26. So what do we make of the 8% allegedly more likely to vote Liberal due to Dom’s Nazi cosplay? Genuine? Or lying to the pollster?

  27. I posted many times and I will repeat again. NSW Labor will win majority government only when they win both Parramatta and Penrith.
    On the election night countiy if it is 56-44 2PP in Labor’s favour then they will win Parramatta and Penrith.

  28. William may say that Minn’s response to pokies reform was “nuanced” but it was duplicitous and cowardly enough for me to tell my local member I won’t vote for her or give money to the campaign and to tell another MP I will not hand out how to votes for him. I stood out for 12 hours in the rain for his election. Not this time.

    The pokies campaign is a big issue for many people. As Minns has a 0.1% margin he better hope that people aren’t unhappy enough to vote for Stolz.

  29. That polling seems about right. An aging, scandal ridden NSW Liberal gov. Now showing how desperate it is to cling onto power. Never forget that people like Gladys and Barilaro don’t resign without good reason – still unresolved by ICAC.

    Over their term, have been more interested in developer handouts and building unwanted football stadiums / casinos, than supporting healthcare, education, the environment or gambling reform. Talking tough on all fronts now, but the rhetoric doesn’t match reality.

    Will be keeping a close eye on seats the ‘Teal’ indies are contesting. See if it’s a similar result to VIC (none elected) or if the conservatives can’t hold onto those blue blood seats either.

  30. I don’t think that the Teal dynamics are the same at all for NSW as the recent Vic election. Andrews is considered a competent progressive by a plurality of voters, regardless of party. It’s why he drives some commentators mental. For better or for worse, those dynamics of the Teal independent conservative don’t translate the same way to either the federal government nor the NSW government. I think the Teal dynamics would be like Andrews if Kean was Premier. But he’s not. It’s not like Morrison, but the creepy nuttery of Morrison comes from NSW. Depending on candidates, there could be a few elected.

  31. Murdoch, Costello and Stokes instructed those employed by the media companies they chair to talk up “hung parliaments” both federally and in Victoria

    And, in Victoria, personally attack Andrews

    The polling in NSW is presented as 56% 2PP to Labor

    Hung parliament territory?

    We are not back in the days of Playford in SA, voted in by clumps of rocks and sheep

    And if we are, the outcry will see the outcome it visited on Playford and the LCP in SA

    The other question is, with the defeated Liberal Party MP’s, there are only a certain number of positions such as Chair of Cricket Australia and its likes to go around

    And only Tasmania with a Liberal government, so not many positions there either

  32. I think cashless gaming is an issue in predominantly safe Liberal electorates on the North Shore of Sydney, so in other words it will have little impact in marginal Western Sydney seats where the election will be decided. At best it might help the Liberals retain one or two seats where they are under threat from Teals.
    No doubt the Daily Tele and 2GB will now run a furious anti Labor campaign in the run up to March 25, because after all that is their business model, defending their conservative mates in government. Chris Minns to me is still largely invisible and he gets little coverage in the Sydney media and on the TV news programs, so if a 56-44 poll lead for Labor is reality, it is more due to dissatisfaction with a 12 year old state Liberal government and a continuing electoral honeymoon for Albo

  33. No Labor candidates yet preselected for Cabramatta, Fairfield and Holsworthy, that is puzzling to me, factional machinations in operation currently?

  34. when ever labor is in a winning position we get rubish about a hung parliament as media can not acsept that labor will win maybi barwin is the only x shooters seat that may loose the other two will be safe its strange labor has no candadate in holsworvy fairfield cabramata and riverstone latist pioles say holesworvy could be winable the liverpool mayor is in troube foor appoitnted former liberal mp john ajaka as gm

  35. evan you may be right the only problim is liberals do not have a gambling policy i assume now presure is off once minns gets elected he will quietly drop itapart from maybi the donations ban not egzacktly worth the fight kean would do better if liberal leader then perottit only chance is if there is a flood in western sydney he can triy the dam wall but after two years of pushing it the people of western sydney do not care about it i think latham will struggle to be re elected in upper house

  36. minns is still not a great leader seems nice but relucdeent to go on the attack 2gb gives him a largily posetive run though which is suprising some times even more then perottit 2gb have gone heavily in backing clubs nsw

  37. The liberals seem to have nothing to focus onthe liberals dont seem interested in western sydney stuart ayres only seems concerend in penirith with football stadiums after he nelly lost his seat last time you would think he would triy and talk about other things thensw waisted a lot of time on triying to please the rugby league then his land tax realy is not moving to many votes only abvalible to first home buyers but he wants to extend it to evry one

  38. matt kean would do better but perottit comes a cros as arich liberal party corear politician with no understanding of western sydney and reajons

  39. A staffer for the Drummoyne MP and disgraced former minister John Sidoti has won Liberal preselection for his seat tonight. Stephanie Di Pasqua won with 52 out of 99 votes in the first round I’m told @SkyNewsAust

  40. I think the Nats may do quite well considering the internal problems of the SF&F and Mark Latham isn’t from the regions. Regional folk are often very attached to their local pub or club which form a big part of the community in country towns so if they come to believe that these local institutions are under attack from pokies reform they could swing to the Nats. Plus Toole is pretty level headed and a safe pair of hands compared to the loose cannon Barilaro.

  41. The tone deaf Liberal Party in 10 of 11 North Shore seats have selected men. Laydeez can bring a plate to the election night knees up.

    However, the disgruntled can vote for a Teal woman if they wish….

    “You’ve just got wall-to-wall men across the entirety of the north shore, except Felicity Wilson [North Shore MP], which is a terrible look. But the reality is, this is who the branches chose. That’s a democratic process,” said one MP, who requested anonymity to speak freely.

    Perrottet last month pleaded for the party to not endorse a male candidate for Pittwater, one of the government’s most at-risk seats, however it endorsed Northern Beaches councillor Rory Amon to replace retiring Cities Minister Rob Stokes. Amon now faces teal challenger Jacqui Scruby.

  42. And Kiama is a basket case… parachuting Andrew Constance or Warren Mundine perchance?

    The party is also yet to find a candidate for the South Coast seat of Kiama, where the incumbent Liberal-turned-independent Gareth Ward is widely expected to run, but is yet to confirm another tilt at the electorate he has represented since 2011. Ward became an independent after being charged with historic sexual assault offences, which he denies.

    Perrottet said on Sunday that he still expected the party to run a candidate in Kiama, adding he did not shy away from the party’s flailing female representation.

    As the premier fielded questions about his party’s failure to preselect women, he brushed off results of a YouGov poll for Newscorp that predicted a Labor victory at the March election.

    Perrottet said voters could rely on his government’s economic record and doing “what’s right”, including his promise to introduce cashless gaming.

  43. And on top of Gareth Ward’s alleged historic sexual offences, there was this incident which the voters of Kiama will need to weigh up.. when he was the Liberal Families Minister..

    New South Wales Families, Communities and Disability Services Minister Gareth Ward had to be escorted home by police last night after being found naked outside his Potts Point apartment in Sydney’s inner east.

    Police said they were called to the unit around 11:30pm in response to a call that a naked man was trying to get into an apartment that wasn’t his own.

    When police arrived Mr Ward was standing in the doorway of another unit, which they determined was his residence and escorted him inside.

    Police said Mr Ward, the member for Kiama, “appeared to be disorientated” and called paramedics, but he refused to be taken to hospital.

    The Minister has issued a statement saying he was “disorientated” because earlier that day he had been under a “general anaesthetic for a procedure” in hospital.

    Police had to return again an hour later after reports the 38-year-old was walking around a common area in his underpants.

    They again escorted him home, and he refused medical treatment.

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