YouGov: 56-44 to Labor in New South Wales

A new poll finding Labor on course for a clear win in New South Wales, plus news on preselection developments over recent weeks.

Today’s Sunday Telegraph has a YouGov poll suggesting Labor is headed for a comfortable win at the New South Wales state election on March 25, leading the Coalition 56-44 on two-party preferred and 39% to 33% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11% and others on 17%. The poll also encompasses questions on the Dominic Perrotet Nazi costume scandal (67% say it won’t affect their vote, 20% say it will make them less likely to vote Coalition, and 8% demonstrate the problems with this sort of question by saying it makes them more likely to vote Coalition), cashless gaming cards (61% are in favour with 19% opposed), better party to deal with the cost of living (30% Labor, 25% Liberal, 26% neither) and issue salience (39% cost of living, 17% economy, 14% health, 10% each for housing affordability and environment). The poll was conducted January 14 to 17 from a sample of 1069.

Other recent election-related news:

• Labor-turned-independent MP Tania Mihailuk has joined One Nation and will run as the second candidate on the party’s Legislative Council ticket behind Mark Latham. Mihailuk quit the ALP in October, a month after being dumped from the shadow ministry after she raised allegations in parliament about links with Eddie Obeid, for which no evidence could be found my an independent investigation completed last week. Latham was elected in 2019 and will cut short his eight-year term to run again to improve the party’s chances of electing a second member.

• Canterbury-Bankstown mayor Khal Asfour has withdrawn from his plum position on Labor’s Legislative Council ticket, complaining of a “smear campaign” that included extensive reportage on his council expenses claims in the Daily Telegraph. However, Chris Minns said Asfour had made the right decision as the claims were unacceptable, and promised to reform council allowances if Labor wins the election. Tania Mihailuk’s breach with Labor, noted above, relates to accusations she made against Asfour in parliament over alleged dealings with Eddie Obeid, for which Asfour was cleared by an independent investigation earlier this month.

• Lawyer and factional conservative Katie Mullens is set to succeed the retiring Geoff Lee as Liberal candidate for Parramatta, emerging as the only preselection candidate standing following the withdrawal of Tanya Raffoul, chief-of-staff to David Elliott of the centre right. James O’Doherty of The Daily Telegraph reports that Raffoul’s decision was made “amid concerns any preselection vote would be tainted by members signed up to the Liberal Party with fake emails”, six local party members having been expelled from the party last month for allegedly using false emails to sign up members. Labor’s candidate is local lord mayor Donna Davis, who was chosen at the behest of Chris Minns without a ballot of the local membership.

• Chris Minns will face an independent challenge in his seat of Kogarah from Troy Stolz, a former auditor for ClubsNSW who is being sued by the organisation after he leaked a report disclosing failures by poker machine venues to comply with money laundering and counter-terrorism laws. Stolz has been critical of Minns’ nuanced response to Dominic Perrottet’s push for cashless gaming cards, as recommended by a NSW Crime Commission report into the use of poker machines for money laundering.

Max Maddison of The Australian reported on January 3 that Liberal Democrats members were in revolt over the disendorsement of the party’s lead Legislative Council candidate, former Liberal Party activist John Ruddick. The decision was carried by a four-to-three vote of the state executive over allegations of bullying and abuse, and will now be referred to a special general meeting before the end of the month.

• Labor’s new candidate for Ryde is Lyndal Howison, a teacher and former communications and marketing manager who ran unsuccessfully for the federal seat of Bennelong in 2016. The party’s original candidate, local doctor Franscisco Valencia, withdrew in December after an apprehended violence order was sought against him over an alleged domestic incident.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

131 comments on “YouGov: 56-44 to Labor in New South Wales”

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  1. well hazard and others praised sidoti ward could all ways give kiama to his friend paul el he is still friends with some of the liberal cowncilors so perrottit could costs government is devided so labor could win kiama also dramoin with sidoti staffer getting the spot

  2. doing whats right like giving john barilarow a trade role even though some one else was promised the job plus the premier has not got a single cadadate he has backed pitwater and davidson rejected his picks and ward controls kiama branches of liberals got his close friend luke sickora the seat of south coast wonder if the clubs nsw oficial toby williams got wakehurst may bi perottit wants to loose buy atacking clubs a change from his strong support for clubs over the vouchas thankfuly minns has largily avoided the distraction focusing on schools and hospitals

  3. It appears the NSW election is heading the same way as Victoria did only months ago.

    Similar 2PP in Labor’s favour for a few months now.

    Has any party which reached 54% of the 2PP vote, not won office?

  4. @98.6

    Yes, at the 1962 South Australian election, Labor got 54.3% of the 2pp vote, but lost in the end. However, that was mainly because of the “Playmander” malapportioned seats at the time. And even then, it was 19 Labor seats against 18 Liberal Country League + 2 conservative Independent seats.

    That said, yes, going by the pendulum, a whole lot of things have to go right for Labor to win majority government at this upcoming NSW election. However, in the past, things have gone to the line for Labor victories in that state. Such as 1976 and 1995.

  5. Opv has given a bonus to the liberals and nats as they.outpolled Labor. Now with the polls predicting a swing to Labor of 6% and a higher alp.primary vote than.the coalition. This.bonus goes to.labor

  6. Kirsdarke

    Yes the NSW electoral map doesn’t really favour Labor, unlike in Victoria. They need a very solid TPP to win.

    I have never been confident they will win and leave the only remaining Liberal Government members on that offshore island of Tasmania – but maybe I am starting to believe.

    And if they do there would then be zero National Party members in any Australian government.

  7. perottit seems to be strugiling he seems out of tuch with the concerns of the averige nsw voter especialy western sydney his land tax preposal he wants to exband to nely evry home owner is not egzacktly geting votes

  8. I can actually see a non-problematic way that a poll respondent might claim that the “Perrottet nazi uniform” mini-scandal (scandalette? Teacup scandal?) would make them more likely to vote Coalition.

    Start with someone who believes in letting the past (especially the distant past) stay in the past, preferably one who is already inclined to give the Coalition the benefit of the doubt. Add in a belief that the whole mini-scandal is a media dogpile; not a belief that it’s “fake”, just that it got way too much media focus. From there, it’s easy to say “This makes me more likely to vote Coalition”, at least partly in reaction to the perceived media over-emphasis on Perrottet’s long-past actions, all without being either a neo-Nazi or a rusted-on Coalition voter. Won’t happen all that much, but it can happen.

  9. sprocket_

    I realise you know this, but just to make an obvious partisan point. The disgruntled can also vote for a Labor woman if they wish, it’s not actually against the LAW, despite what one might think when reading in the MSM about what options voters have in northern Sydney.

    There are very good female candidates for Labor in Lane Cove (a Ryde Councillor), Willoughby, Manly and Wakehurst. Ironically Labor has a male up against the only Liberal female in northern Sydney, but he is the Deputy Mayor so a very good candidate as well.

  10. Teal types have always done well in Sydney. Robyn Read. Our Dawn. Peter McDonald. Clover. Hatton down the coast. The Libs should be very worried about anywhere with a water view IMHO.

    Very quiet elsewhere. So far. Tolls and trains might bite in Holsworthy and East Hills and out west – but they will need to.

    Minns’ koala national park proposal (30 years too late, but, still…) – a push for Green preferences, everywhere (counterweight to Kean’s Net Zero positions?)

    Too close to call, Labor minority the most likely outcome based on a PDOOMA

  11. There doesn’t appear as yet to be a Labor candidate for Epping. Not likely to change hands, I know, but as someone unable to physically help with the campaign I would at least like to be able to make a modest financial contribution to the candidate.

  12. I agree with subgeometer, Aaron Newton and others. On these numbers Labor will form majority government. The question is how many extra seats the Teals will take off the Liberals, not whether the Teals will hold the balance of power. Minns is sensibly taking a leaf out of Albo’s book and not promising too much, save a clean out of the cronyism. He could do worse than start with NSW police.

    With two months to go a turnaround is possible, but where does it come from? The Libs are changing neither policy nor candidates, despite the inclusive rhetoric. They are inclusive of Anglos and Saxons, both middle aged and old.

    The Libs have had successive heavy defeats in Federal and Victorian elections with identifiable demographic factors of gender and ethnicity. So I find it stunning that they are sticking to more of the same.

  13. The Nazi outfit is not really the main issue sure it was a act of poor judgement that would not be made by most people. You can also argue well that is 20 years ago i have grown up since then
    No the issue is the disharmony in the liberals why is David Elliott so willing to dump on his own side
    If a party cannot govern itself how can it govern a state

  14. Kirsdarke, Thank you for your information.
    Obviously there were, and still are, idiosyncrasies in our voting system.
    Joh Bjelke-Petersen used to win government in Qld for decades on 28% of the vote.

  15. 98.6 at 10.26 pm

    Not in NSW any time recently, and you must go back to 1995 for a fairly close result:

    Given the margin of error, and the risk of under-sampling bogan voters, all the polls so far point to a Labor TPP (for what that’s worth under OPV) of at least 52%, as in 2007

    For comparison, Labor won 52 seats off a 39% primary vote (Lib 37%) in 2007. See:

    See some of the seats Labor held strongly then and get an idea of big swingers in 2023:

  16. Good numbers.
    I hope that if he gets up, Minns doesn’t let the wider Labor Party down. Not a given in the rum corps state.

  17. While many posts go into minute details of candidate personalities eg ex mayor, former assistant to an MP etc. or the location of a seat eg North Shore, Inner West etc. the fact remains at 56-44 in Labor’s favour, if repeated on election day, most of that speculation gets swept aside.
    Obviously, there will always be those few situations where the result will be ‘I knew that would happen’
    because . . . .

  18. i mean matt kean protended to be a modderit but all his atempts to present amodern image fell flat givenhe could not manage to get any candadates up apart from a couple of upper house mps but even his highest peter poulos is low down the ticket behind the likes of right winger mclaron jones so foor a so called power brocker he is not that great at actualy getting candadates selected

  19. If Matt Kean ever did become NSW Premier or Liberal leader, 2GB would go into extreme meltdown – the likes of Ben Fordham and Ray Hadley can’t stand Kean mostly because of his green credentials and views on climate change and renewable energy, Kean on that station is regularly called a “Labor stooge”.
    Report in today’s Sydney Morning Herald – nine of ten Liberal candidates in seats on Sydney’s North Shore are blokes, which tells you that Liberal preselectors are mostly older men who think women should be at home raising children and not getting involved in politics.

  20. no matter what 2 g b says i think kean would be a better leader for the party then perrottit especialy with yyunger voters 2gb wants the liberal only apeel to conservatives which worked out well last federal election

  21. @98.6

    Bjelke-Petersen’s government was a different matter. Basically from when he became Premier from 1968 to 1983 it was a Coalition government, only with the rare distinction from other Australian states that the Nationals were dominant over the Liberals. The Coalition always won on 2pp in that time, even if Queensland was still malapportioned. Then after 1983 the Nationals broke off the Coalition and aimed to govern by themselves, which they did from 1983-1989, holding a majority of seats with the Liberals on the crossbench.

  22. There was a post about 2007 where Iemma basically kept Carr’s .post 1999 majority intact.labor won a majority of the 2pp and a higher primary vote than the coalition .this is exactly what the polls are projecting now. Also sitting. Mps retiring are harming the liberals now. This is a mirror image of the 2011 election

  23. New South Wales with a Labor government sounds good. Would it make any difference though? The place was ruled by property developers with friends everywhere, it has always seemed.

    Has it progressed since The Rum Corps?

  24. but isnt the property developers now have links with liberal party like john sedoti plus most of labors old guard are out of parliament now there is no mp left with nich lalich being forced out of cabramata

  25. @PTMD

    Most of what I know about NSW politics is from Friendlyjordies, but a few of the big things he says will change if the government flips from Coalition to Labor is land clearing laws, action against regional local council corruption and, hopefully, new environmental protection laws. His main campaign against Gladys was branding her as “Koala-Killer”, and from hearsay that rather annoyed the Coalition government.

    And, hopefully, less influence by property developers. FJ has made it clear that he despises them, so much that he’s made videos against allegedly corrupt Labor held local councils that pander to them.

  26. Puff and drag on. (sorry, a play on words from the sixties)
    Of course it will make a difference. But I agree with you that property developers are everywhere.
    Also, it will be good to see how Labor will handle developers after watching the Libs do it for the last 12 years.

  27. I think a NSW Labor Government will be the same as any other modern centre left government. The politicians generally go where their support base is, both demographic and ideological. Look at Joe Biden he’s 80 and is governing like a 45 year old in terms of ideology and objectives.

    That said, I don’t think Labor is a sure thing yet. The Government doesn’t seem too decayed and might find a way to pull back 3 points or so. Probably still not enough but there is just that element of doubt. I think a 75-80% Labor probability seems right.

  28. We are in late January now.only 2 months to go. The opinion polls 2pp are averaging 54 to 56 labors way with Labor having a majority of 2 to 5% in the primary vote. To suggest the liberals can even move back to a situation of minority alp govt is unlikely. The votes I.think are locked in now and the lnp will be saving what seats they can

  29. Notice how the corrupt media hasnt called out Perrotet lie last week

    About releasing the gambling policy within days , a week later still nothing

  30. Kanye West is planning to visit his new inlaws in Melbourne next week and rumors are he wants to arrange a visit with the NSW premier as he has been told that they have a lot in common.

  31. Anyone else concerned that 8% of respondents were more likely to vote for Perrotet after admitting he dressed as a Nazi?
    (yes I realise, as the article highlights, that its largely a problem with the way the question is worded, but…8%!?)

  32. LOL NSW Liberal Party

    Rugby League star Josh Mansour has rejected an approach from the Liberal Party to run for government at the March state elections.

    The Sydney Morning Herald revealed the off-contract player was tapped on the shoulder to run against Labor leader Chris Minns in the seat of Kogarah.

  33. According to Chris O’Keefe on 2GB, their new drive time host, ex Channel 9 state political commentator, Liberal private polling is dire for them, especially in Western Sydney seats and on the South Coast of NSW, and the Libs also have made up no ground on the Central Coast of NSW, also they’re in trouble against Teal candidates in Willoughby, Pittwater and Wakehurst.
    Western Sydney seats Liberals are apparently polling badly in – Penrith, Parramatta, Winston Hills, Camden, Leppington, Riverstone(a seat Labor as yet haven’t preselected a candidate for).
    Seat of South Coast said to be looking good for a Labor gain, because of the loss of the personal vote Shelly Handcock enjoyed in that electorate.
    Nothing about Kiama, which will be a 3 way contest – Labor vs Liberal vs Gareth Ward.

  34. Scottsays:
    Tuesday, January 24, 2023 at 1:01 pm
    Notice how the corrupt media hasnt called out Perrotet lie last week

    About releasing the gambling policy within days , a week later still nothing


  35. Many bludgers are still worried, even with the 2PP polls at 56-44 to Labor, that with OPV and other factors like the swing needed on the pendulum, Labor may still not form government.
    Don’t forget both sides have the OPV to deal with as do the Indies.
    As to the swing, it is always averaged out, so not the ultimate predictor of which seats will change hands.

  36. Evan at 5.21 pm

    Not surprising at all. One would expect the Libs to leak fitfully in their current state.

    Add Holsworthy to that list of likely Labor gains in western Sydney. The stark double standard of the Gladys non-lockdown for eastern and northern Sydney will haunt them. People in western Sydney will not forget that when they finally attend the polls.

    Why is Gareth Ward standing? Porter did not stand when the writing was on the wall. What Ward will achieve, via OPV, is to ensure he is the only Lib to have held Kiama.

  37. Evan at 5:21 – yes an interesting report from 2GB, except that Larissa Penn hasn’t even declared she is standing in Willoughby, isn’t supported by the Teal forces, and isn’t campaigning yet. If the Liberals think they are losing to someone who isn’t even campaigning yet, then they are in trouble.

    Also word on the Tallyroom is that Wakehurst Independents have declared that they will not run a Teal Candidate in Wakehurst. But Michael Regan might run.

    Interesting that North Shore and Manly were not mentioned.

  38. what about n s w greens since shoebridge moved to senate the party is basickly inviasable in n s w have not been campaigning much and no hype apart the party picking up seats in n s w have they given up on nsw election they need to get rid of there policy of not having a state leader it means there is no main spockseman for the party andSghoebtridge was efectively the leader any way while in nsw parliament i think perrottits personal unpopularity would not help liberals he is sceen as arogent and out of tuch lacking the relatability of gladis who was just as bad but had a good image around being likable and a hard worker

  39. even 2 g b are giving minns a reasonable run apart from the asfour stuff but now him being removed basickly will not help latham as what can mihaylouk run on a sky news hoast would have been a more obveous choice latham basickly just wants to help the liberals he did not like gladis but

  40. Not shore if he will even win his seat the vote for one nation has declind in 2019 with hanson basickly backing a majority of liberals policies same with latham there is no fred nile though and sff is unknown [penrith seems to be promising plus paramater ayres had a low profile campaign desbite the local pappers backing

  41. well labor are campaigning heavily in penrith where as ayres has not promised much upgrades to sports he does not live in penrith plus the barilarow scandle would not help him desbite the local pappers claims he is a great minister he is usualy had junier positions like sport trade not high profile ministries his long sttanding push to increase developmentin the flood plain has not helped him iva and his stadiums policy no longer popular

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