Relevant news coverage of the past few days:
• Today’s Herald Sun reports pollster Redbridge Group believes “Labor will be reduced to minority government with 43 seats out of 88”, though this is based on “extensive polling and hundreds of focus groups in key seats across the state over the past two years” rather than anything specific. A “best-case scenario” is nonetheless conceded in which Labor wins 48 seats. Labor is predicted to lose Bayswater, Bass, Nepean and Pakenham to the Liberals, with Ashwood, Box Hill and Ringwood “under serious threat” and Eltham, Monbulk, Cranbourne and Eureka “considered to be in play”. Richmond and Northcote are rated as Greens gains, possibly to be joined by Albert Park, Footscray and “even” Pascoe Vale, the latter being the view of “party insiders”. Melton, Point Cook and Werribee “could” be won by independents, Ian Birchall in Melton seemingly being the best chance. Labor is “not expected to retain” Hawthorn, which I take to imply uncertainty as to whether it will be lost to Liberal John Pesutto or independent Melissa Lowe.
• Similarly, The Australian reports strategists from both parties consider seven to eight losses an “optimistic Labor prediction”, although the contention there are “up to ten in the party’s doubtful column” still suggests a bare Labor majority. The Liberals are still hopeful of a “train wreck” scenario for Labor in which the undecided break their way, but concede it to be unlikely. It is “understood the Liberal Party’s poll track has the two-party preferred vote locked at 50 per cent” across 20 target seats, implying it is likely to win a good many of them.
• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll showing Labor leading 55-45, in from 57-43 in a similar poll a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Labor 38% (down two), Coalition 32.5% (up three-and-a-half), Greens 12.5% (up one), “teal independents” 4.5% (steady), and 12.5% scattered among the remainder. There were also forced response questions for Daniel Andrews’ personal approval, breaking 57.5-42.5 his way, and preferred premier, breaking 65-35 in favour of Andrews over Matthew Guy.
• An audience of 100 ostensibly undecided voters recruited by Q&A Market Research for Tuesday night’s leaders debate in Box Hill came down 38 for Daniel Andrews, 34 for Matthew Guy and 28 undecided.
• The Age had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including issue salience responses that closely tracked a similar recent question from RedBridge Group in having the cost of living well in front on 27%, followed by health and environment on 12% each. Respondents were also asked how they viewed twelve election policies announced during the campaign and found net positive responses for all of them, with little separating the Coalition’s promise of $2 public transport fares (65% for, 10% against) and Labor’s investment in renewable energy under the State Energy Commission (64% for, 14% against). The least popular policies were banning gas exploration (34% for, 24% against) and raising the age of criminal responsibility from twelve to fourteen (37% for, 28% against). I am advised that the voting intention results to one decimal place shown on Wikipedia are sourced from the company itself. For what such distinctions may be worth to you, the 53-47 headline was rounded from 52.7-47.3.
So whilst the ALP invest in State assets, being the reconfiguration of the power network to accommodate renewable energy
The Liberals are going to sell the sewerage and water assets of the State
And “raid” the State’s contingency fund
Now “raiding” the contingency fund is acceptable because, being a contingency fund it is there to cover contingencies (such as supporting the community thru a Global Pandemic) as and when required
The funds are reserved for such contingencies and to stabilise the community
But it is the level of the “raid” which draws attention
It is most definitely not there to fund election promises such as those populist policies the Liberals have promoted (so paying for children’s lunches and $2- to use public transport, so really nonsense policies)
The Liberals are to “raid” very significantly more than Labor – so $7 billion versus $2- billion
Plus sell State assets
What hasn’t this tawdry, divided political party not sold off to their big business donors – and what is the cost to the community?
These private operators have a duty to their Shareholders, to maximise returns, pay dividends and improve the Share price
That is their DNA (and their bankers assess for such performance)
Next they will privatise public education because they can not afford to invest in public education
Or just cut costs as they did when last in government – driving people including my wife from the industry
Frednk
Jordan Peterson sounds like kermit the frog.
Btsays – cooker means antivaxxer conspiracy theorist dickheads exclusively.
Climate science deniers are just called deniers, and religious bigots are just called religious bigots.
There’s some overlap in the absolute self belief that both cookers and denialists think they’re the smart ones who understand things the majority of people don’t, but we’re nonetheless sticklers for correct labelling.
Even now climate activists are labelled stupid greenies by the right, you don’t need to go back to the 1920s for that… People will always be labelled for having different beliefs.
@Oliver Sutton
Its the very vocal small minority thing, up here, our local booth was 58/42 to ALP last time in 2018. Interesting in the federal poll it was 45/55 to the Nats with about 16% to the cookers. So will be one to watch.
I am temperamentally pro-cooker and genuinely loathe Dan Andrews’ policies and style — but they are mad. Talk to them, they will sound rational from a certain ideological perspective for the most part , then come out with a casual comment which has you going…….hmmmm, time to move on.
OTOH Teals are rational but actually rather mean, sanctimonious and elitist when you actually parse their core views. Grown up private school captains.
“raid every contingency known to mankind”
And, trust me, Hayward is a serious brain
He has savaged the Liberal Party
Well colour me green and call me a cucumber but I do not understand the whole anti- Dan thing, please enlighten me.
is it because of lockdowns and vaccines? Or telling the corrupt branch stacking operatives in the ALP to GAGF, or taking tough decisions and standing by the result bad or good?
I try and contrast it with the “bloody Jeff” – and that was quite well understood unless your were a LNP lackey who liked pain.
The Liberals, it is in their DNA, “get in and wreck the place”
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid
Didnt you know Dan Andrews created the pandemic. He is all knowing and all powerful.
Lol…………
“And tell me BTsay’s what wondrous conclusion have you reached?”
I haven’t! Definitely not intelligent enough for that, nor inspired enough to spend the time on it. Sorry to disappoint 🙂
But hopefully not enough of a sheep to simply follow whatever the MSM / celebrities of the day tell us is the truth.
Can’t say it’s a topic I give a lot of thought about in truth, but thought it was a good example as so topical in current society.
Victoria says:
Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 8:26 pm
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid
Didnt you know Dan Andrews created the pandemic. He is all knowing and all powerful.
Lol…………
____________________
And dont forget he has those tunnels for trafficking children……and the vaccines are for the 5G tracking
Dr fumbles McStupid
Of course. How could i forget!
Of course, the high profile leaders of the cooker group are simply opportunist scammers who use their followers to financially benefit themselves – Trump and the like. The movement won’t last.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 8:23 pm
Well colour me green and call me a cucumber but I do not understand the whole anti- Dan thing, please enlighten me.
is it because of lockdowns and vaccines? Or telling the corrupt branch stacking operatives in the ALP to GAGF
___________
Dan must have been the only Victorian with a vague interest in politics who didn’t know that Somyurek was running a branch stacking empire when he appointed him to Cabinet twice.
But I will hand it to him. Once Channel 9 had the goods on Somyurek, Andrews gave him a good and proper kicking.
That they had to vote early to obviously avoid a circus on Saturday is pretty sad.
https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/status/1595711377888641024
Counter-factual: If Pesutto had survived last time and was leader now, I could see the Libs forming government on Saturday, assuming he’d been able to keep the loony right in check.
Luke
Interesting to compare 2022 federal election
LNP GAINS: 0
ALP GAINS: 10 from LNP
GRN GAINS: 2 from LNP, 1 from ALP
IND GAINS: 6 from LNP, 1 from ALP
Which made it
ALP: 77 (+8), LNP: 58(-18), GRN: 4 (+3), IND/Minor : 12 (+5)
Could be a similar pattern with ALP losing a few to GRN and IND, but LNP losing more to IND than ALP do. Which would put LNP in poor position, and then any losses from LNP to ALP would make ALP majority more certain.
Pesutto is a lame duck as leader in a party of lightweights like Crozier, Davis and the Pentecostals, just like Turnbull was.
I’ve listened to Peterson on a number of occasions and have heard nothing that would warrant calling him a ‘woman hater’. He does take issue with some of the claims of radical feminism but his arguments are well reasoned and worthy of consideration IMO.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #158 Thursday, November 24th, 2022 – 8:23 pm
What the cookers don’t realise is that we were all in it together and the vast majority of Victorians although unhappy about the lock downs, we did it because we understood that it was to our benefit and that of our family, friends and everybody else.
The vast majority of Victorians really don’t want to engage in useless arguments with cookers (been there done that),so they the cookers in their own galaxy only mix with themselves and the MSM has fanned that and encouraged them to think everybody else thinks they have a just cause.They haven’t they never have and never will.
The beauty of the ballot box is it’s secret, so what you might crap on about outside may not reflect what goes into the box,I mean all these so called cookers can’t really all believe their rhetoric surely?
If they did they might as well sign up to their nearest Pentecostal tithe facility to engorge their pastor’s superannuation fund.
@Rocket Rocket
I just can’t see ALP not winning a majority. The Greens and Teals will no doubt pick up a few but as much from the Libs as Labor.
alias
I’m sure a lot of Liberals are hoping Pesutto wins and ‘fixes’ things in opposition to maybe win next time. Then again they thought the same about Frydenberg. So if Pesutto loses who will be the Victorian Dutton?
Also, thanks for the heads up about Malaysia and Anwar Ibrahim. That has truly been a long journey!
Rex Douglas @ #169 Thursday, November 24th, 2022 – 8:44 pm
A nice enough bloke in a party of spivs.Give Newbury the job and watch him go.
I’ve been expecting more from the Herald Sun and The Age on Matt Guys plan to privatise sewage.
I wanted to see the headlines:
“Libs plan to S#it from nobody”
“Libs poo plan stinks to high heaven”
“Privatisation of sewage number 1 and number 2 priority according to Matthew Guy”
Im not buying into all the doom and gloom;
There has been a strong mainstream media campaign in last few weeks amplifying a vocal minority. Its been a dirty campaign, with the strategy seeming is to ‘drag the whole system down, and hope voters blame the government more’.
At the federal election (and in the US) we have seen voters using their brains and judging the candidates above parties more than they used to, polls might not map well to seats.
Labor will lose some seats to Libs and Greens, but are the only party that can form government, if it’s a minority there is sure to be enough variety on their left and right that getting legislation through won’t be a problem. Being in the sensible center is where a successful party belongs.
What can the Liberal party gain from this election, Mathew Guy will have to go (again) after his second time as leader and second loss, they have nobody with leadership credentials to replace him. The Victorian Libs havent been good at developing policy for i dont know how long, they dont seem to have good internal administration, even the candidates they might gain look like more of a burden than a benefit.
There is renewal happening on the Labor side, with some long term members bowing out, so there will be prospects for growth within the team as it looks to a fourth term.
Cookers are cooking right now, but we will hear from the majority on Saturday.
Alpha Zero says:
Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 8:53 pm
I’ve been expecting more from the Herald Sun and The Age on Matt Guys plan to privatise sewage.
I wanted to see the headlines:
________________
Matt Guy promises privatized poo palaces for public.
I think the Victorian great unwashed have had enough of privitisation and the ALP moves about the SEC will be more influential.
I have to admit a terrible sin, in the early 90s I was part of the privitsation move being employed as a wet behind the ears economics/policy postgrad and blinded by ideology but I did not share in the spoils that the more senior collegues did. Was a big eye opener for sure and changed me.
Alpha Zero @ #175 Thursday, November 24th, 2022 – 8:53 pm
OMG I’ve got Giarrhea!
Nothing like privatising sewage / now how has that gone with the Tories in the UK?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/24/water-companies-dumping-sewage-during-dry-weather-sas-report-finds
nath says:
Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 8:57 pm
Alpha Zero says:
Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 8:53 pm
I’ve been expecting more from the Herald Sun and The Age on Matt Guys plan to privatise sewage.
I wanted to see the headlines:
________________
Matt Guy promises privatized poo palaces for public.
_______________________
Could always take the European solution to poo places and charge $2 to use the facilities….
Funny story I was once chase out of a public loo in Berlin in 1995 as I was desperate to pee, German beer is so nice, so I jumped over the turnstiles and did it, will always remember the attendant chasing and yelling “Ein mark funfzig”
Now we have …mat …matty………Mathew’s new plan to leave all victorians in The Shit…….
It’s one shit show after another …. Not pay per view ..but pay to shit ..what are they going to charge by the Log you drop.
Polling booth bunting (late printing)
“LIBERALS WANT TO PRIVATISE YOUR SEWAGE
ANOTHER SH*T IDEA FROM MATTHEW GUY”
@ Dr Fumbles McStupid
I’ll have a go at the general anti Dan sentiment. Outside of the ‘cookers’ and hard core conservatives, I think there is a sense among many (including myself) that Dan always passes the buck but tries to claim all the glory. Blaming the public for the second lockdown while not acknowledging the Hotel issues was terrible but typical.
His lack of empathy has also been a real issue. During lockdowns, he would speak with passion about why the lockdown was important, while reading the daily death numbers with all the sincerity of reading the nights lotto numbers. Locking up the high rise apartments was disgusting and inhumane and served no purpose. Plus, it was all good and well to firmly tell people to “just stay at home”, but I’m pretty sure he wasn’t living in a high rise apartment!
But most of all, it was the deliberate bending of the truth. Anyone who has been a member of the ALP knows how rampant branchstacking is. Dan would have known about every deal, so to hang Somureyek out to dry and pretend he knew nothing said a lot. The “I don’t recall trials” was an embarrassment, and the fact he worded up all his ministers to do the same was, again, terrible but typical.
I could go on, but I think that’s the core issues. Dan clearly worked his ass off during the Lockdowns and ScoMo and Gladys ballsed it for everyone in 2021, but it just seemed clear that he couldn’t emphasise with those who really struggled during lockdown.
Totally understand that people have different experiences and beliefs, but it seems to me that those who have backed Dan are generally quite well off and in relatively secure employment.
@Rocket Rocket
Love it!! (Your puns, not Guy’s sh!tshow)
Agreed Rocket Rocket
I wonder how long before Anwar’s old mate Philip Adams gets him back on Late Night Live?
@Luke says:
Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 9:11 pm
@ Dr Fumbles McStupid
Totally understand that people have different experiences and beliefs, but it seems to me that those who have backed Dan are generally quite well off and in relatively secure employment.
______________
Will have to take some issue with that, Dan stood up to get some relief for Victorians under the second lockdown when SfM and the Josh boy said GFYS. Then NSW had an issue so those in Vic got assistance. It wont be forgotten that when Josh said state govts that lockdown are on their own and get no assistance but Dan made them see the folly of it.
alias
In dark anti-democratic moments I think of Martin Luther King Jr’s quote –
“The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice”
@Rocket Rocket
Yes, reassuring quote, and it’s been a reasonably good patch right? Bolsonaro’s loss, the US mid-terms, Albo of course.
On the flipside, Israel is headed for its most right-wing government ever.
@Dr Fumbles McStupid
Totally hear what you’re saying re Frydenberg and the Feds and Dan fighting for more payments.
My last point was more that peoples experiences of Lockdown dictate their feelings (rightly or wrongly) about Dan. Those in secure employment and secure housing generally have a high opinion of him. Casual workers (myself at that time), people in cramped or poor living conditions generally have a negative opinion of him.
I also feel that the best way for everyone to move on is a fresh start. ScoMo is gone, time to start afresh with Ms Allen in Victoria.
That cooker term is a vic thing. The thing that people in Victoria get, is the venn diagram overlap of meth-heads and the conspiracy freedumb cosplayers. The riseup nazi lot. They’ve been here for years. Cookers.
@Luke
Have to say i agree, the casual workers really got the shaft from the pandemic, Dan was late to the party to try and protect but did try in the end.
Luke
I think someone here made the point yesterday that before Covid he was maybe planning to step down in 2020-2021 but stayed on because of Covid – and now with the plan to absorb all the ‘damage’ then hand over in the next term.
I think this is likely what will happen. By the next election people will want to forget about Covid (and from a health perspective I hope that is an easy thing to say then!) and he would remind people of the bad Covid years so a new Premier instead will help.
“My last point was more that peoples experiences of Lockdown dictate their feelings (rightly or wrongly) about Dan. Those in secure employment and secure housing generally have a high opinion of him. Casual workers (myself at that time), people in cramped or poor living conditions generally have a negative opinion of him.” This supreme analysis is based on what exactly? A hunch?
Luke: “ScoMo is gone, time to start afresh with Ms Allen in Victoria.”
Nah, ScoMo’s chickens are coming home to roost.
Findings of the review of his multiple secret co-ministries imminent.
Robodebt royal commission to follow.
Actions have consequences.
Lobsters are bottom filter feeders who get filled with S…t!
No wonder the Lobster wants to privatize S…t!
I have some reservations about Andrews – both his record and his style – but no politician is perfect and on balance I think he’s been a good Premier. I think it’s time for him to move on in the next term though, assuming he’s returned. However the visceral dislike of him by many in the community is real. It stops me in my tracks a bit as I don’t quite get where it’s coming from.
The people I’m thinking of are mostly men who otherwise aren’t generally interested or engaged in politics. It’s not particularly from people who lost jobs or otherwise were affected financially by the pandemic. But for reasons I don’t understand- and I haven’t explored them, as I haven’t wanted to trigger an angry rant that I’d have to listen to – there’s this real anger there. Not sure how widespread it is. I guess we’ll find out on the weekend.
Unless those cookers can somehow maintain the rage until 2026 this will be the high water mark.
Casual workers (myself at that time), people in cramped or poor living conditions generally have a negative opinion of him.
You wanted to get COVID-19 instead? Before you were fully vaccinated? Just so you could keep doing your Casual job!?! And you don’t appreciate Dan Andrews making the effort to protect you? What a perverse perspective.
I work in the water/wastewater sector. The Libs plan would be an unmitigated disaster for Victorians. For so many reasons.
Rocket Rocket @ #178 Thursday, November 24th, 2022 – 9:04 pm
Exactly. What this policy proposal also shows is how bereft of new policy ideas Guy is. He’s just copy and pasted this one from over there.