US midterm elections late counting

186 comments on “US midterm elections late counting”

1. Ven

   Thanks so much for the summary and (optimistic) foreaast of what is at least possible for Dems in the House now.

   With so many Senate races turning towards the Democrats in late counting I had been wondering if the same trend might be filtering through to House races. Sure enough you have confirmed it has been.

2. Brian Tyler Cohen talking to Adam Frisch, Lauren Boebert’s Democratic candidate in Colorado 3:

   https://youtu.be/FFZ1EtrFhnQ

3. Hugoaugogo

   The US Senate has become much more uniform in that fewer and fewer states have one Democrat and one Republican Senator. I think this trend will continue which of course disadvantages the Democrats who have two Senators for California’s 39 million people, while the Republicans have two Senators for South Dakota’s 900,000 people, and many other small population states.

   If the Democrats win the Presidency in 2024 I can see them holding on to the Senate narrowly – maybe even 50-50 again, but if the Republicans win they will surely sweep the Senate and House.

   I am fascinated about why some neighbouring states are so different. Minnesota has a history with their Democrat-Labour-Farmer party yet neighbouring Iowa is solidly Republican. Indiana is solid Republican next to solid Democrat Illinois and swing state (maybe not so much now!) Ohio.

   Demographics and industrial decay play a part, no better shown than the ‘swap’ between Virginia and West Virginia. In Presidential elections West Virginia used to be solid working class Democrat (one of the six states Carter carried in 1980) while it took Obama in 2008 to break a 36 year Republican hold on Virginia which has become more ‘Northern’ especially with so many people who live in the north of the state but work in or for government in neighbouring Washington DC.

   Ironic as West Virginia was formed by seceding from Virginia in 1861 because of the Civil War.

4. An interesting titbit:

   Gluesenkamp Perez’s victory puts House Democrats on track to represent every district that touches the Pacific Ocean, a feat they haven’t accomplished since before Washington became a state in 1889. Two Democratic incumbents on the California coast, 47th District Rep. Katie Porter and 49th District Rep. Mike Levin, have held the lead since election night, though their races haven’t been called yet.

   Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola won’t know her fate until the state conducts instant-runoff tabulations on Nov. 23, but she also looks well positioned: Peltola is taking 47% of the vote with an estimated 80% in, so she’d only need to win a small number of second-choice votes to pull ahead.

5. Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico would go a long way to fixing the Dems’ problems in the Senate.

   They need to rebalance the Supreme Court and then unravel tons of gerrymandering to fix their problem in the House. Adding two new states is probably easy by comparison.

6. Rocket – Yes, that’s undoubtedly true, and most states now tend to be one-party states for one or the other.

   There are of course still a small number of swing states, and other states that are trending one way or the other – the upper mid-west is probably still Democratic leaning, but slowly trending Republican, while parts of the south and west are Republican-leaning and slowly trending Democratic. We’ve got used to seeing solid Blue from Virginia north into New England as well as the entire west coast, with a solid red centre and south, but of course it wasn’t always thus. You rightly point to Virginia’s transformation into a Blue state, with Iowa into a red one, but both of those are fairly recent developments, likewise movements in Colorado, New Mexico, Florida and Missouri. And of course New England was for a lon g time a Republican stronghold, as was California, which went Republican as recently as 1988.

   In 20 years time, we might be looking at Electoral map with the so-called Rust Belt red more often than not, while some southern states like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona (not technically a southern state I know) are more Democratic.

7. “ In 20 years time, we might be looking at Electoral map with the so-called Rust Belt red more often than not, while some southern states like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona (not technically a southern state I know) are more Democratic.”

   In 20 years time we may see the Blue west coast actually extend along the southern boarder right up to Louisanna: Washington, Oregon, California, inland for Nevada and Arizona, New Mexico and Texas: all reliably blue. Texas will go purple by the end of this decade. Arizona and Nevada already have. In Dixie, Virginia is purple already, Georgia seems to be and North Carolina has had a few ‘near misses’ but the demographic trends favour team blue.

   Of course, if the GOP comes in from the nuttersphere and focuses on traditional conservative concerns – economy and crime – then that should delay and mitigate thee trends.

   In any two party system, the parties have a way of realigning themselves to the centre – eventually, largely because of their survival instincts. As soon as the GOP realise that pale, stale and male demographic is a dead end, they will change. It will likley take a long time, largely becuase of the legacy of Nixon-Ailes-Reagan-Trump on the soul of the party, but ultimately change is irresistible.

   Already mellienals who are eligible to vote comprise an equivalent voter base to boomers. the combined genY-Millenial (ie. under 40s) is as big as the combined GenX-Boomer-silent generation. If this election (and 2020 as well) demonstrates anything it is the power of THAT vote. It is highly unusual that these cohorts come out to vote in huge numbers and yet in the last 2 years they have done it twice: once to kick out a first term president (which itself is unusual – you have to go back to Jimmy Carter – and then before that to pre WW2 times – see see similar examples) AND then to hold off an insurgent opposition party in the mid terms (Bush II – on the back of war fever – was the last one to pull that off). ‘progressives’ turning up to vote in two successive elections is quite extraordinary. It represents real change in the voting patterns of the past 50 years: if they keep this up then they may actually start to really change the tide of the decline in governance that goes all the way back to Nixon and the repudiation of the Grand Society.

   The future is Brown, Yellow, Black & folk under 40, especially people with viable uteruses. The GOP is in a world of pain trying to cater for those demographics given its Trumpian makeup. even if it ‘goes back’ to being a Reaganesque mirage – I’m not sure of the appeal in THAT with the coming generation.

8. Maricopa County has tabulated 98,618 ballots
   Est. 94,285 remain (94% complete)

   Batch breakdown
   Governor
   @KariLake
   54.6
   @katiehobbs
   45.4

   Senate
   @bgmasters
   51.7
   @CaptMarkKelly
   46.5

   AZAG
   @AbrahamHamadeh
   55.4
   @krismayes
   44.6

   AZSOS
   @RealMarkFinchem
   52.3
   @Adrian_Fontes
   47.8

   https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591966344467353601?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1591966344467353601%7Ctwgr%5E5701d4d327f6b9da2cc045820a97d1bce44777eb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2022%2F11%2F13%2F2135886%2F-Kari-Lake-calls-workers-counting-her-votes-incompetent-and-a-laughingstock-but-says-she-ll-wait

   the last batch was about 100,000 ballots and they came from Maracopa and Pima both blue counties. Hobbs lead went from 34,000 to 26,000.

   There is about another 100,000 in those blue districts and if Hobbs loses by the same ratio she would go down from 26,000 to 18,000 lead.

   there are still about 43,000 ballots in all red districts and if Lake gets 40% more than Hobbs it would give Lake 17,200 and would just about wipe out Hobbs 18,000 lead and then their are the provisional.

   this is going to be a nail bitter.

9. Looks like Same Day Mail In ballots (that is, you take your Mail In ballot to the polling centre on Election Day). They usually favour the Republicans.

10. The same source says:

    For tomorrow’s drop to be relevant I was looking for at least a Lake 58/42

11. AE – Yes, there’s a lot of truth to what you say, but I’d throw in a few caveats. One you concede yourself, and that’s that the Republican Party will likely move back to the centre over the next decade, as the Trump wing loses its power in the face of continued election losses, and as their older voters die off. It’s also not a given that voters of colour are a lock for the Democrats. Latinos, in particular, are often conservative Catholics at heart, and may be amenable to Republican appeals to both law and order and social values. Black voters, too, are clearly less progressive than m any of the Left assume. Finally, never underestimate the Democratic Party’s ability to fuck up a winning hand (see 2008). In short, I largely agree with your analysis, but we should be wary about extrapolating trends that appear set right now, because things might yet look very different in a decade.

12. Hugoaugogo, A_E

    One of my favourite US Presidential election ‘maps’ is 1896 (even better if it is in the old colours of Democrat Red, and Republican Blue)

    

    Because it is almost the exact reverse of the situation now – Republicans with the North-East, Mid-West and the West Coast, and Democrats with the South, Plains and Rocky Mountain States.

    I have watched with interest as the Democrats have slowly but surely made inroads in the South-West and I do daydream about a time where they might also get Texas, Florida, South Carolina. But as A_E points out, once the map starts tilting dramatically that way (Texas, California, Florida and New York currently have 152 Electoral votes total – would be hard to win with none of those) the ‘fading’ party would surely realign themselves. Though with the current crop of Republicans I could see that taking a very long time.

13. USHOR-NY State
    The total mess up in NY cannot be ignored. 15-11 when they were initially eyeing 22-4 is a disaster of epic proportions that needs to be studied and corrected so it never happens again.

14. My simple Arizona Governor model currently says (with 93% vote counted as per NBC)

    Hobbs – currently 1211595 votes = 50.5%
    Lake – currently 1185584 votes = 49.4%

    Final estimated tallies
    Hobbs – 1316081 votes = 50.6%
    Lake – 1281402 votes = 49.3%

    fingers crossed!

15. Ven

    Yes amazing to think that NY has a good chance of causing the Dems to lose House majority!

16. Graham joins calls to delay Senate GOP leadership elections
    CNN Staff

    Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina tweeted Sunday that the GOP should delay leadership elections in the Senate until after the runoff in Georgia next month.

    In light of #GASen runoff, it would be appropriate to delay Senate leadership elections until we know who is in the Senate Republican Conference.

    I totally agree with Senator @TedCruz that to do otherwise would be disrespectful to @HerschelWalker.

    — Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) November 14, 2022

    CNN has reported Senate GOP leaders plan to hold leadership elections on Wednesday, with leaders arguing that the elections follow a similar timetable as 2020 when two Georgia Senate races headed to runoffs.

    GOP Sen. Rick Scott, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, called for a delay of the elections earlier Sunday, saying, it “doesn’t make any sense” to have them this week.

    Scott also said “a lot of people” have asked him to run for minority leader.

    While Mitch McConnell is widely expected to easily win the top spot again, making him the longest Senate party leader in history, he is facing some dissension in the ranks. That includes a campaign against his candidacy by former President Donald Trump.

    https://edition.cnn.com/webview/politics/live-news/election-results-congress-senate-house-11-13-2022/index.html

17. Has there been any significant counting today (Sunday US time)?

18. Rocket – yes, indeed, though of course the Democrats were still sweeping the South as late as the early 1960s. LBJ was on the money when he noted that passing of the Great Society reforms in that decade meant that the Dems would lose the South for generation (in fact, it’s coming up to three generations now). For many years, of course, the Democrats were the slavery party, but also the party of the rural poor whites, who were a much bigger voting block back then comparative to the whole nation. The Republicans, by contrast, were the anti-slavery party (as befits the party of Lincoln), but also the party of urban voters, which slowly but surely became the majority. This, along with residual opprobrium following the Civil War, enabled the Republicans to dominate national politics for about 70 years after the Civil War (while the Dems kept a lock on the South), only breaking up with the Great Depression, FDR and the New Deal.

    Those roles started to reverse over the course of the Twentieth Century, first when FDR’s New Deal created the modern Democratic coalition of working class urban whites and black voters, along with the rump of the racist South, who stayed with the party until Nixon, after which it’s safe to say that there was a comfortable majority of Republican-leaning voters until the 1990s (witness Nixon’s landslide win in 1972, and the three huge Reagan/ Bush wins in the 1980s). As non-white voters have increased their share of the electorate over the last 40 years, that has allowed the Democrats to compete their transformation into a more conventional centre-Left party, able to capitalise on that changing electorate. Trump was able to peel off enough of the old school working-class Whites in enough key states in 2016 to squeak a majority, but it’s not for nothing that the Democrats have won a majority of the vote in seven of the last eight Presidential elections (Bush II’s narrow win in 2004 the only exception), and they have won the Electoral College six of those nine times (seven, if you count 2000). The Dems will almost certainly also win the popular vote in 2024, though the Electoral College might not go the same way of course.

    The overall demographic trends favour the Democrats, but these things move slowly of course. The Dem,s are now the party of urbanites, the young and minorities, while the Republicans speak for ageing non-College whites and religious conservatives outside the major centres. Right now, the GOP can turn that into narrow majorities, abut as AE noted above, they are relying on shrinking demographics, while the Democrats are banking on expanding ones. Sooner rather than later, the Republicans will need to find a way to appeal to these more modern demographics, and my guess is that within a decade they will.

19. Rocket Rocket @ #115 Monday, November 14th, 2022 – 3:09 pm

    Ven

    Yes amazing to think that NY has a good chance of causing the Dems to lose House majority!

    I read that a conservative billionaire funded the successful legal challenge to NY’s Redistricting maps. Coincidentally, not, more Republicans won seats this election.

20. Hugoaugogo

    Yes I expect the Democrats to win the popular vote in 2024 almost no matter what.

    It is quite amazing how close American elections have been for the last twenty or so years – probably the only other comparable period was after the Civil War and Ulysses Grant’s Presidency from 1876 until about 1900 when the Republicans really started to dominate.

    Ezra Klein in New York Times wrote about three thing he thinks define US politics now –
    “calcification, parity and cultural backlash”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/opinion/election-midterm-pattern.html

    Calcification
    “The cause of this calcification is no mystery. As the national parties diverge, voters cease switching between them. That the Republican and Democratic Parties have kept the same names for so long obscures how much they’ve changed. I find this statistic shocking, and perhaps you will, too: In 1952, only 50 percent of voters said they saw a big difference between the Democratic and Republican Parties. By 1984, it was 62 percent. In 2004, it was 76 percent. By 2020, it was 90 percent.

    The yawning differences between the parties have made swing voters not just an endangered species, but a bizarre one. How muddled must your beliefs about politics be to shift regularly between Republican and Democratic Parties that agree on so little?”

    Parity
    “We live in an era of unusual political competitiveness. Presidential elections are decided by a few points, in a few states. The House and Senate are up for grabs in nearly every contest. In both 2016 and 2020, fewer than 100,000 votes could’ve flipped the presidential election. So even as calcification means fewer minds change in any given election, parity means those small, marginal changes can completely alter American politics.”

    Cultural backlash
    “That’s led to a backlash among those opposed to, or simply disoriented by, the speed at which social mores are shifting, and the rise, in countries all over the world, of a post-materialist right. That’s led to a slew of right-wing parties that care more about culture and identity than tax cuts and deregulation.

    “You can call them the radical right, that’s a very common way of labeling them,” Norris told me in a podcast conversation, “but they’re not always right-wing in economics. Sometimes they’re fairly positive toward public spending — for example, in Scandinavian countries. What distinguishes them is that they really want to restore and push back against social liberalism, or as we call it in the contemporary parlance in the media, the ‘woke’ agenda.”

21. Hugoaugogo, I agree with your analysis 100%, except – perhaps – for this:

    “ Those roles started to reverse over the course of the Twentieth Century, first when FDR’s New Deal created the modern Democratic coalition of working class urban whites and black voters” …

    This is not a strong point in my personal knowledge base of american political history … but … didnt this process of reverse polarity actually start a generation before as a combination of the internal Republican Party brawl involving Teddy Roosevelt AND the Woodrow Wilson ascendency in the Democratic Party?

22. 12:35pm…… Also some US media, but not yet CNN, have called Oregon’s sixth for the Reps.
    ———————————————–
    Oregon 5th? Dems ahead in the 6th. Havent seen anyone call the 6th yet.

    Nuts that Dems couldnt secure one of the two Montana districts – Biden got 40% of the state wide vote in 2020. I feel for the independent commission tho – it is just impossible to divvy one state up into two districts like this and be fair in any way or shape to either party or to any community.

    Having said all that, at 50-46 down, Dems might see themselves in with a chance at some stage before the next census.

23. ”
    Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Monday, November 14, 2022 at 4:06 pm
    Has there been any significant counting today (Sunday US time)?
    ”

    Yes.
    Across the board the Repugs have benefited whether firming up their lead in seats to watch, taken over lead where they were trailing marginally (AZ-01), closed the gap in some other seats, made it extremely difficult for Dems to get majority in HOR.
    Everything but everything has to go right for Dems from now onwards to get 218.

24. SK

    I only realised yesterday that Montana had got a new House seat after the last census. And yes it is hard to split up a big state of over 1 million people when there is only one city over 100k, and the capital Helena is under 50k.

    Of course these minor changes to the House also affect the Electoral College.

    Biden’s 306-232 win in 2020 becomes 303-235
    Democrats 2020 lose -1 in NY, PA, MI, IL, CA, gain +1 in CO, OR = net minus 3
    Republicans 2020 lose -1 in OH, WV, gain +1 in MT, NC, FL, and +2 in TX = net plus 3

    These tiny changes may be telling if the 2024 election is close.

25. 98000 Maricopa County Governor votes have been dropped:

    https://youtu.be/LEu_KYqsZEE

    Only a similar number to go.

26. On ‘Calcification’, with Lynn Vavrek:

    https://youtu.be/gwDRVS25kF4

27. AE – There’s something to that theory, but I’d argue that Wilson’s election was probably more of a fluke than marking any shift, given that he was lucky enough to have a credible third party candidate (TR no less) splitting the GOP vote in 1912, and then of course he got the benefit of war incumbency in 1916. But his Presidency came at the tail end of a long Republican hegemony, with just him and Cleveland the only non-Republican Presidents between 1860 and 1932. It’s worth noting that Wilson Presidency was sandwiched between a 16-year run before and a 12-year run after of GOP Presidents.

    Teddy Roosevelt’s experience tells us a bit more, though. TR was actually a pretty liberal President, famously standing up to the robber barons of the era, and being very enlightened on racial issues (scandalously inviting Booker T Washington to dine at the White House). TR’s struggles with his party are instructive in seeing how the modern Republican Party, as a vehicle for vested interests, came into being.

    But most historians see the real watershed election as 1932, when FDR was able to ride the Great Depression to create a New Democratic coalition of workers, the poor, black voters (who previously nearly all voted for the party of Lincoln) and intellectuals, still broadly speaking the Democratic coalition today.

28. Hugoaugogo at 7.59 pm

    You say Wilson “got the benefit of war incumbency in 1916”, yet the USA did not enter the Great War until 6 April 1917. See:

    https://www.worldwar1centennial.org/index.php/edu-home/edu-topics/579-overview-general-collections/4989-the-u-s-in-wwi-overview.html#:~:text=On%20April%206%2C%201917%2C%20the,and%20the%20world%20for%20generations.

29. Kari Lake looks like she started out sane and then went off the deep end with the trump cult. She did go to the U of Iowa so she must have had some brains at some point. She started out in media as a weathercaster in an era before a degree in meteorology was expected. Voted for Obama and Kerry. WTF happened?

30. Dr D – that’s obviously true, but the war (without the US) was most definitely in full swing by then, and US entry into WWI (or not) was a key issue in the 1916 election. Like FDR in 1940, Wilson campaigned to stay out of the war in Europe, and like FDR, people chose to believe him, but still thought he was the best option should war come anyway.

    So I certainly believe that Wilson benefitted from the wartime vibe, even though the US wasn’t actually involved on election day in 1916 (though war came just a month after Wilson’s second inaugural). Of course, US troops didn’t really fight in any great numbers until 1918 anyway, but politics is as much about the vibe as it is about the reality.

31. Rocket Rocket says:
    Monday, November 14, 2022 at 6:06 pm

    SK

    I only realised yesterday that Montana had got a new House seat after the last census. And yes it is hard to split up a big state of over 1 million people when there is only one city over 100k, and the capital Helena is under 50k.

    Of course these minor changes to the House also affect the Electoral College.

    Biden’s 306-232 win in 2020 becomes 303-235
    Democrats 2020 lose -1 in NY, PA, MI, IL, CA, gain +1 in CO, OR = net minus 3
    Republicans 2020 lose -1 in OH, WV, gain +1 in MT, NC, FL, and +2 in TX = net plus 3

    These tiny changes may be telling if the 2024 election is close.
    中华人共和国
    Big hey RR! I raise you a Queensland for 5 of your Montanas thank you very much!

    Last time I was in the States I met a bloke from Texas. He started to tell me how big the Lone Star State is. I pointed out that Queensland would gobble up over 2.5 Texas’! He got the bill for the Whisky! Nice Chap.

32. chauncey devega
    @chaunceydevega
    @TheRickWilson
    @gtconway3d
    @djrothkopf
    @NormOrnstein
    Anyone who is saying that the Republicans have been deterred in their war on democracy because of their defeats during the midterms is dangerously naïve. The Republican fascists will not stop, ever.

    https://twitter.com/chaunceydevega/status/1591866156264062976

33. Upnorth

    Yes it’s all relative – I think in the Korean War my dad told an American soldier from Boston that there was a cattle station (“ranch” for the American) in Australia bigger than the state of Massachusetts. Of course the guy didn’t believe him! The station, Victoria River Downs in the NT, is smaller than it was in the 1950s but still pretty big.

    I was looking at Alaska recently during the mid-term elections. On Mercator projection maps it looks absurdly big, almost as big as Australia. Yet on most US election maps they have it tucked into a corner next to Arizona and about the same size. In reality it is by far their biggest state, almost the size of Queensland.

    And I note Thailand is between California and Texas in area – smaller than Myanmar which I wouldn’t have guessed. I know which one I’d rather go to (having been to neither!)

34. Rocket Rocket says:
    Monday, November 14, 2022 at 11:19 pm
    Upnorth

    Yes it’s all relative – I think in the Korean War my dad told an American soldier from Boston that there was a cattle station (“ranch” for the American) in Australia bigger than the state of Massachusetts. Of course the guy didn’t believe him! The station, Victoria River Downs in the NT, is smaller than it was in the 1950s but still pretty big.

    I was looking at Alaska recently during the mid-term elections. On Mercator projection maps it looks absurdly big, almost as big as Australia. Yet on most US election maps they have it tucked into a corner next to Arizona and about the same size. In reality it is by far their biggest state, almost the size of Queensland.

    And I note Thailand is between California and Texas in area – smaller than Myanmar which I wouldn’t have guessed. I know which one I’d rather go to (having been to neither!)
    中华人民共和国
    Too true cobber.

    I was fortunate to go to Myanmar a few times during their brief democracy. Beautiful wonderful people and I am very sad at what has happened. The surprising thing for me was the higher level of English there than Thailand. I guess a leftover from British rule.

    Thailand and its people too are wonderful and I hope you can visit one day.

    I’ve also been to “VRD” and a heap of Stations in the area in both the NT and QLD. Some of my “mob” live up there and it’s fun to go on country with them.

    Stay safe cobber

35. Other than the horse-shit that ‘Morrison was right’, re: ‘EVs will ruin the weekend’ (at 5 minutes in), there is a lot in this little video that is pretty close to being … spot on …

    https://youtu.be/Crwz8rw9wDI

    Of course, his concluding remarks about folk being conditioned to be dumb (and hence manipulable) is standard LNP-MSM-business establishment MO. The Labor government faces stiff head winds in turning that around. The Labor movement always has.

    However, government – especially progressive government – is about boring holes into hard boards. It takes time & the ‘Lib-Lab: same-same’ brigade aren’t helping: they are lead in the saddle bag and triangulate to defeat Labor for the benefit of the pirates who created the whole paradigm in the first place.

36. test

37. I’m going to move this to the open thread since my copy/paste from twitter isn’t appearing here. And on the off chance this will work, I’ll leave a link. (Christopher Bouzy predicts Dems will achieve a at least 215 in the House.)
    https://twitter.com/cbouzy/status/1592189380470636544

38. Last time I was in the States I met a bloke from Texas. He started to tell me how big the Lone Star State is. I pointed out that Queensland would gobble up over 2.5 Texas’! He got the bill for the Whisky! Nice Chap.
    ———————–
    Just finished reading Peter Fitzsimons book about Hubert Wilkins. He did a lot of adventuring in Alaska – yes indeed, a big place.

    I wasnt very impressed with the writing. And his Mawson book wasnt the greatest read either. Anyone offer advice on how his other books compare? I have heard Batavia is good but hesitant to give him another go.

39. We lived on VRD and a portion cut from it, Yarralin, for three years back in the 1970’s. We were allowed by station management to camp where we wanted. Some of the back country up in the sandstone ranges (linked to the Kimberley sandstones) was completely and utterly isolated. There was no built infrastructure. No artificial lights. No artificial noise. The nearest other human might be 30 or 40km away. I imagine that parts of Alaska are similar, except swap extreme cold for extreme heat.

40. 6pm in Arizona

    My simple Arizona Governor model currently says (with 93.1% vote counted as per Washington Post)

    Hobbs – currently 1230262 votes = 50.6%
    Lake – currently 1201214 votes = 49.4%

    Final estimated tallies
    Hobbs – 1332508 votes = 50.7%
    Lake – 1293408 votes = 49.2%

    Getting close to this being called.
    About 100k votes left in Maricopa County (Hobbs leading 51.7-48.3), and 46k left in Pima County (Hobbs leading 60.5-39.3)

41. 743pm in Arizona. It’s done. Democrat Katie Hobbs beats Republican Kari Lake for Arizona Governor.

    Called by Washington Post, NBC, CNN, Associated Press

    Waiting for Kari Lake to concede (we could be here a while folks!)

42. Hobbs wins in Arizona!!!

43. RR
    Since you mentioned tabulation, here is the actual tabulation as per AZ election website. You may compare and contrast with your tabulation.

    https://apps.arizona.vote/info/bps/2022-general-election/33/0

44. Midterm results have led to a stunning turnaround in the 2024 Republican primary polls. In DeSantis, the MAGA crowd see someone they like who can also win. I do wonder if him sending migrants by plane to Massachusetts was a rather sick advertisement to gain their attention and support.

45. Ven, thanks for that link

    So they have just under 2.6 million votes estimated total. I had a bit over 2.6 million relying on media sources of county tallies and ‘percent counted’ estimates.

    The Democrats’ slow progression over the last three decades across the South-West continues.

    California – Colorado – New Mexico – Nevada and maybe now Arizona.

    Though I think Utah is a “bridge too far” !

46. SK
    I read one of FitzSimon’s first on Bomber Beazley and felt it was at an average undergraduate level.

    Since then most of his stuff is apparently ghosted by unemployed history PhD so a bit better but there is a reason they are unemployed.

    A review of his great war trilogy by Peter Stanley
    FitzSimons’ style is that of a graphic novel without the pictures,” wrote Prof Stanley, adding: “(It’s) cartoon history by the kilogram.” His [Mr FitzSimons’] popularity stems partly from the promotional advantages he enjoys with media outlets in all forms, but also because he is a sort of historical Trump – he understands and expresses [and probably shares] a simple patriotism that transcends the complexity of real life, and tells a good story regardless. The story of Villers-Bretonneux doesn’t deserve 700 pages and I don’t think it should be told in the way he tells it,” he said. The fact that he writes about a group of men in a lorry, he goes, ‘they bumped down the cobblestones of France, bumpity bumpity bump’, to me that’s just ridiculously simplistic. I really don’t think he gets the Great War was a global tragedy, I think he thinks of it as a national triumph for Australia. And that’s the way he presents it

    I once tried to engage with FitzSimons about his claim that the ANZAC’s would not have put up with racism or discrimination over sexuality and , indeed, fought for “our freedom” and human rights. Obviously wrong and an attempt to mould the ANZACs to his 21st C values. He didn’t reply

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/books/2016/11/14/peter-fitzsimons-war/

47. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 9:19 am

    We lived on VRD and a portion cut from it, Yarralin, for three years back in the 1970’s. We were allowed by station management to camp where we wanted. Some of the back country up in the sandstone ranges (linked to the Kimberley sandstones) was completely and utterly isolated. There was no built infrastructure. No artificial lights. No artificial noise. The nearest other human might be 30 or 40km away. I imagine that parts of Alaska are similar, except swap extreme cold for extreme heat.
    中华人民共和国
    I was on country about 15 years ago near Burketown (well about 120km away) chasing Barra, Threadfin Salmon and wild Pigs. My cousins husband, who is a traditional owner, set up camp whilst we were out. We got to the camp about 7pm. He said he had “Imparja” on. Not seeing a TV I was a bit surprised. Then he told me to watch the campfire for a long time!

48. Kari Lake and Trump relationship is master -servant relationship

    https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1579260714354868225?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1579260714354868225%7Ctwgr%5E8b7f6882b8d80dc08aac21c575e29774278721ad%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2022%2F11%2F14%2F2136194%2F-NBC-Calls-AZ-Gov-race-for-Katie-Hobbs%3Ffr%3Doperanews

    

49. “One of the Republicans in this state said that Kari Lake told a legion of John McCain supporters across Arizona that they could go to hell. Tonight they returned the favor.”

    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1592342425191809026?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1592342425191809026%7Ctwgr%5E90d0a8536f65df8d8ad2259182b72336a1a9627f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2022%2F11%2F14%2F2136194%2F-NBC-Calls-AZ-Gov-race-for-Katie-Hobbs

50. Kari Lake dissing Liz Chaney did not age well.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/2136204/-Kari-Lake-s-Smarmy-Diss-of-Liz-Cheney-Didn-t-Age-Well