10:59am Thursday Reps have just been projected to win California’s 27th. That gives them 218 seats and control of the House, with Dems on 208. If all current leads are retained, Reps will win the House by 221-214. Reps lead in the popular vote is down to 51.3-47.1, a 4.2% margin. Earlier, the Dem won Maine’s second 53.1-46.9 after preferences from an independent were counted. This will be my final update to this late counting thread.
3:27pm In Alaska Senate, with 80% counted, the Trump-endorsed Tshibaka’s lead over the moderate Rep incumbent Murkowski narrows to just 43.3-43.1 with 10.0% for a Dem. Those Dem preferences will help Murkowski. In Alaska’s only House seat, the Dem now has 48.1% of primaries, 8% higher than at the August by-election, and will win convincingly. Preferences will be tabulated Nov 24 AEDT.
2pm CNN has called California’s 41st for the Rep, moving them to 217 House seats and now just one away from the majority.
1:41pm Wednesday In non-counting news, Donald Trump has announced his 2024 presidential campaign. Perhaps that will assist Democratic turnout in Georgia’s Senate runoff election in three weeks. In counting news, the Dem’s lead in California’s 13th has been cut back to 50.3-49.7 today from 50.4-49.6 yesterday, but the Dem lead in California’s 47th has widened to 50.8-49.2 from 50.6-49.4 yesterday. CNN currently has the House at 216-205 to the Reps, wha are two wins away from a majority.
3:03pm Dems have overturned a Rep lead in California’s 13th district, and now lead 50.4-49.6 with 58% in. But trends in other California seats are good for the Reps. Also, New York’s 22nd has been called for the Reps. If current leads hold, the final House will be 221-214 to the Reps.
1:37pm Reps will win the Alaska governor, so the final governors’ results will be 26 Reps to 24 Dems. Dems gained Massachusetts and Maryland after moderate Rep governors retired. They also gained Arizona, while the Reps gained Nevada. All election deniers who ran in key swing states for secretary of state – a state’s chief electoral authority – were defeated.
1:05pm Tuesday With almost all votes counted in Arizona, Dem Hobbs will win the governor, a Dem gain; she currently leads by 50.4-49.6. But Reps will win two House seats by 1% or less, taking their tally to 214 seats to 204 for Dems, with 218 needed for a majority. Reps are near certainties now to win a House majority.
2:17pm While California’s late counting has generally been good for the Dems, the exception is the 41st district. The Rep has extended his lead to 51.3-48.7, from 50.7-49.3 yesterday. The Arizona late counting below would be from mail drop ins on Election Day, which were expected to help the Reps.
12:35pm Monday Today’s Arizona counting has been good for the Reps. In Arizona’s first district, the Rep has taken a 50.1-49.9 lead after the Dem led by 50.4-49.6 yesterday. In the sixth, the Rep has extended his lead to 50.3-49.7 from 50.2-49.8 yesterday. If Reps win both these districts, it’s very likely they will win the House majority. Also some US media, but not yet CNN, have called Oregon’s sixth for the Reps.
1:33pm Sunday Clark counting has put Dem Cortez Masto up by 0.5% or almost 5,000 votes statewide in Nevada Senate, and CNN has CALLED it for the Dems, a Dem hold. Dems now have 50 Senate seats to 49 for Reps, and they will HOLD the Senate on Harris’ casting vote, regardless of Georgia’s runoff result in December.
In the House, Washington’s third district has been called for the Dems, a Dem gain. This is a major upset. Reps now lead on seats by 211-204 per CNN, with some races in Arizona and Oregon still close and set to be decided on late counting.
7:20pm Arizona Senate has been CALLED for Dem Kelly as he leads by 51.8-46.1 with 85% counted. In Nevada Senate, Rep Laxalt retains a lead just over 800 votes after a Washoe batch cancelled out with rural counties. But Clark tomorrow should be decisive. In the House, CNN has called four more seats for Dems, who now trail by just 211-203, even though Reps still lead by 5.2% on popular votes.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
At time of writing on Saturday morning, CNN had Democrats winning 48 Senate seats (including seats not up for election and two independents who caucus with Democrats), Republicans had 49 seats and three races were uncalled.
Of the uncalled seats, Georgia will go to a December 6 runoff after no candidate won at least 50% owing to a Libertarian who got 2%. In Arizona, the Democrat leads by 51.7-46.1, and although Election Day mail drop offs are expected to help Republicans, they are unlikely to be enough to overturn that lead. In Nevada, the Republican currently leads by just 48.5-48.4, or just under 800 votes, but there’s more than enough late mail in Democratic-leaning Clark and Washoe counties to overturn that lead.
If Democrats win Arizona and Nevada, they will have 50 Senate seats, enough to control it on Vice President Kamala Harris’ casting vote. However, as I wrote for The Conversation on Wednesday night, Democrats face a very difficult Senate map in 2024, when they will be defending 23 seats and Republicans just ten.
House: Republican majority no sure thing
In the House of Representatives, CNN has called 211 seats for Republicans and 199 for Democrats, a net gain for Republicans of 12. There are 435 total House seats, so 218 are required for a majority.
Two of the remaining uncalled seats used preferential voting: Maine’s second and Alaska’s at-large. In both these cases, I will call for the Democratic candidates. In Maine’s second, the Democrat is leading by 49.2-43.9, and won’t be caught on preferences. In Alaska, Democrat Peltola is at 47.3%, with Republicans Palin at 26.6% and Begich at 24.2%. Peltola’s vote share is 7% higher than at the by-election she won against Palin in August, and should increase further in late counting.
If we give these two seats to Democrats, the House is currently 211-201 to Republicans, leaving 23 uncalled seats. Twelve of these 23 seats are in California, the most populous US state, with 52 total House seats. California takes about four weeks to count all its votes, and Democrats will hope that late mail assists them to overturn Republican leads there.
According to this spreadsheet, Republicans currently lead in 221 House seats and Democrats in 214, so Democrats would need to overturn four current Republican leads to win the House. Despite the tenuous lead for Republicans in seats, they are winning the House popular vote by 52.0-46.5, a 5.5% margin, according to the Cook Political Report. I believe this popular vote lead is partly explained by Democrats not contesting many safe Republican seats, so Republicans won nearly 100% of votes in those seats.
One other federal contest of interest is Alaska Senate, where the Trump-backed Republican Tshibaka leads the moderate Republican incumbent Murkowski by 44.2-42.8 on primary votes with 9.5% for a Democrat. Murkowski is likely to gain in late counting and Democratic preferences will assist her to hold her seat.
As of end of 11 Nov, 538 site had Repubs with 211 House seats and Dems with 205.
Cortez Masto is 862 votes behind Laxalt in Nevada, and likely to overcome him.
Laxalt got 86% in second least populous county of Eureka, but misses the prize.
Noteworthy that Dems have won 3 out of 4 House seats in Nevada. See:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/nevada-house-results
And ranked choice voting wins the day in Nevada, with 52% support (88% in).
The Nevadans are smarter than the British, only 32% of whom chose it in 2011.
“At time of writing on Saturday morning, CNN had Democrats winning 48 Senate seats (including seats not up for election and two independents who caucus with Democrats), Republicans had 49 seats and three races were uncalled.”
The Guardian is giving 49/49 in the Senate, with Nevada and Georgia still in contention.
In Georgia the count ended with the Democrats ahead (now waiting for the runoff), whereas in Nevada the situation is:
48.5% Republicans
48.4% Democrats
94.7% of votes counted
So, the currently most parsimonious outcomes seem to be either: 50D/50R (which is good for the Democrats), or 51D/49R (which is even better for the Democrats).
The House is still quite volatile.
The best the Democrats could hope for is 220, which would be a +2 majority.
The worst the Democrats could do is 214, which would be a -7 minority.
… and all the various possibilities in between.
Given the shocking result for the Republicans and the turmoil already spreading across the Republican camp, even if they win by a few votes in the House, the win could disappear in the floor due to lack of unity and party discipline.
Most of the outstanding vote to be counted is in California, which is very Dem heavy. When all the votes are in, my back-of-the-envelope estimate is that the Democrats will win the popular vote in the House by 0.8%.
A huge red tide to float ‘Trumpty Dumpty’s 2024 Presidential launch?
Hole amidships.
Dr Doolittle – 654pm
The Tory campaign against ranked choice voting was incredibly misleading and dishonest (yes, I was shocked also, shocked I tell you!).
Just another way they fooled the clueless Lib-Dems who had gone into Coalition with them after the 2015 election with one of the conditions being a promise to have a plebiscite on this issue.
From previous US mid-term thread
”
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 5:15 pm
Republicans have 51.8% of the house vote compared to Democrats 46.6%, a difference of about 5 million votes.
In Australia they would now be forming government with a workable majority.
I suspect that if they do not win control of the house, this will be the bedrock of the conspiracy that the election was stolen or that there is a Democrat gerrymander. This would conveniently ignore Biden’s victory over Trump by more than 7 M votes
It will be interesting to see analysis of voter turnout in the seats. It is likely that Republical votes have been wasted in safe seats
”
I read that when GQP gerrymandered US HOR seats where they can do they did it in such a way that there would around 16 seat competitive seats ( i.e. they wanted to be certain they win around 200 seats without much effort). The way they gerrymandered actually was bit favourable to Dems in open/ competitive seats.
Rocket Rocket at 7.31 pm
I think you meant the 2010 election. Lib Dems lost 49 seats at 2015 election. See:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7186/#fullreport
Yes, Lib Dems remained clueless, as shown most of all by Jo Swinson pushing hard for the 2019 election that gave Johnson a large majority, with awful consequences. Swinson deservedly lost her seat, but the UK would have been in a better condition to respond to the challenges of Covid if the 2019 election had not occurred then.
Swinson had been a marketing and public relations manager. That’s among the worst type of backgrounds for anybody hoping to be a serious political leader.
Re the 2011 plebiscite, it is one example of how half-baked politics in the UK is when compared to Australia, which is hardly a world leader in terms of plebiscites. The turnout in the 2011 plebiscite was only 42%. Even in Russia the Constitution needed 50% to get passed, in 1993 (it didn’t get there really, but was fudged).
For a referendum in Australia there needs to be a formal case put before voters. The archaic procedural details are now being revised in preparation for Voice vote.
There is a nice Englishman named John Pert who now farms outside York in WA growing olives (having earlier been a machinist). He may still attend the farmers’ market at the Mt Claremont Primary School. He was aghast in 2016 about how such a serious question as Brexit could be decided in such a very dishonest way.
Probably the most remarkable mid terms in 50 years. Not even Reagan, Clinton or Obama could stem the gushing tide of the opposition party.
The Dems have a lock on the Senate. They will end up winning Nevada comfortably. They should then win the Georgia run off. No need for Kamala.
Now for Donald’s tremendously tremendous and important announcement next week which will be hilarious.
I don’t think he will back down. But he will lose the battle to be nominated.
Events, dear boy, events.
On betfair right now Democrats are 75:1 outsider to gain a senate majority with no majority a 1:50 on favourite. What am I missing here?
Betfair rules the 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats are NOT counted in the majority. Democrats have to get to 53 for a win
Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.
Reposted from previous mid-terms thread (would be interested if Adrian can quantify this further for us):
GOP might be leading 5% / 6m votes but raw vote counts for the House of Reps aren’t the correct measure for national votes, in the way they are for Presidential elections or for Senate elections (at a state-wide level only for Senate in practice, simply because only 1/3 of senate seats are up for election every 2 years).
The reason for this is because many Reps are elected unopposed. This happens in safe seats for both sides, but much more prevalent for GOP – so naturally all those zero vote tallies for Dems will artificially make it look like GOP have won lots more votes when tallied up nationally.
Reposted from previous mid-term thread:
Sidenote: one of the houses of congress in USA is the House of Representatives, the races for which we are watching closely on this thread.
The 435 members of this house are called ‘Reps’ in common parlance – meaning everywhere in USA media etc. – whether Democrats, Republicans or Independents.
Therefore please can we stop calling Republicans the abbrev of ‘Reps’ as this is quite confusing. GOP or Repubs work fine. 🙂
re: Betfair, if you’re using the version of the site on the phone, those conditions are very hard to see. Always bet on the desktop site if you can!
The Betfair odds for number of seats for the Dems suggests 49 is the favourite, which assumes a win for both Cortez Masto in Nevada (highly likely) and for Warnock in Georgia in the run-off (don’t be so sure).
“Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 10:02 pm
Betfair rules the 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats are NOT counted in the majority. Democrats have to get to 53 for a win”…
…. and of course this is only relevant to those people who bet with Betfair….
“Al Pal says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 9:05 pm
…Now for Donald’s tremendously tremendous and important announcement next week which will be hilarious.
I don’t think he will back down. But he will lose the battle to be nominated.”… and if he does so, what’s his reaction going to be?
a) Humbly accept that he is a loser and fade away?
b) Stay on and try next time?
c) Deny that he lost the nomination?
d) Get so outraged to leave the GOP and start his own MAGA Party?
Dr Doolittle – 834pm
Yes – 2010 – I think maybe I am scarred from happening to be in the UK at the 2015 election!
And I agree that the 2019 election should not have happened – pushing Johnson into that election which he was always going to win was a huge mistake. Not that anyone could see Covid coming, but just imagine if the UK had had an election in the second half of this year as would have occurred being five years after the 2017 General Election. No time for a two-year “Rishi Revival” – they may still have had Boris or even Liz Truss in charge.
And yes in the 2015 election the clueless Lib-Dems got punished, while the actual party behind all the austerity disaster got off scot-free. (Quite literally seeing as I had predicted a Labour-LibDem-SNP ‘coalition’ Government!)
Alpo
The big announcement was clearly going to be claiming credit for the Republican mid-term Red Wave / Tsunami, and declaring his candidacy for the 2024 Presidential election.
I think he may still declare he’s running (saying that without him on the actual ballot the Republicans did horribly), or perhaps announce that he will be making a big announcement in January.
Somewhere along the line he has to declare one way or the other. If he enters the race and is losing the primary does he ‘go postal’ and run as an independent? If he did it would gift the election to the Democrats surely.
I think the Republicans will be putting up roadblocks on the Interstate Highways 75 and 85 to stop him travelling from Florida into Georgia before their Senate run-off election in December.
Well I was significantly wrong in my view that the Republicans would have a comfortable win in the House and a narrow one in the Senate.
The premise of my view was that: (i) economic factors were the most important, and within that inflation and the cost of living were the most important issues ; (ii) the Democrats would be held accountable for these economic problems; and (iii) the non-economic factors of abortion and the Republicans’ extremist/Trumpist element, would be less important than the economic factors.
That premise was a pretty standard one. Obviously it was wrong. What will be interesting is the battle over the ‘explanation’. Was it that voters were not as angry about the cost of living as thought; or didn’t blame the Dems even if they were; or were they indeed angry but even more angry/frightened by the social and Trump factors. Or maybe they just looked at the Dems and the Biden administration holistically and thought ‘close enough’. Or some combination.
However, the win of Fetterman, despite his incoherent debate performance, reinforced a cherished view that voters focus on fundamental issues and ideology not saying ‘the wrong thing’ or being too old or too male/female or whatever.
Trump will run because it keeps the cash flowing to his ”campaign”…a significant portion of which he siphons off for himself.
He can cancel his campaign at a much later date of he wants.
Thanks for that Oakeshott Country.
I’m 100% more fond of Americans today than I was a week ago.
“Republican Adam Laxalt’s lead over Catherine Cortez Masto shrinks in race that could hand Democrats control of chamber”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/12/democrats-senate-nevada-race-midterms
The shrinking Senatorial GOP is getting pretty nervous….
Significant gender gap crucial to Cortez Masto winning in Nevada. According to exit polls she got support from 43% of men and 52% of women, of whom there are more voters than men (54% to 46%). That will prove decisive. See:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/nevada-senate-results
So, its afternoon in the States. Come ON!!! Where are the next round of updates (confession: I didn’t think I’d be even interested, let alone addicted, this late into the mid-term counts, lol).
There are lots of things that I find hard to imagine but how an enthusiastic Trump voter finally makes up their mind to dump him after all that kool-aid is beyond me.
“ “I had a pit-of-my-stomach moment as I watched the rally,” said the former Trump fan, who did not want to be named. “It is hard to quit Trump — I voted for him twice enthusiastically.” But “at this juncture, I think we have to move forward to a new generation of leaders.”
https://nypost.com/2022/11/11/trump-voters-are-done-with-ex-president-he-needs-to-disappear/
CNN now estimates that in Washoe and Clark there are 32,000 postals, 10,000 needing a cure and 5,000 provisionals. I think the number remaining in Bugtussle, Potash and other counties is very low.
Making up 860 should be doable. The 32,000 regulars will be counted some time today
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/12/politics/nevada-arizona-votes-midterms-what-to-know/index.html
A big hour coming up!
CNN says around 11am AEDT for Clark and 3pm for Washoe
Hey AE, there will be a big drop of votes around 2.00pm Sydney time that should put the Dem Senate candidate in the lead in Nevada
Who said that the principles of democracy were simple and crystal clear?… They don’t seem to be anymore, in some sectors of the USA electorate:
“Officials in Maricopa County, Ariz., have had enough of election-fraud conspiracy theories, if a new thread from the county’s Twitter account is any indication. “CANDIDATES: All legal votes will be counted, including votes for you,” it says in one tweet. “If you have the most votes in the final tally, you will be elected. If you do not have the most votes, you will have lost your election.””
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/11/12/us/election-results-updates
“As of this morning, with nearly 97% of the vote counted in the Nevada Senate race, Laxalt was leading by around 800 votes. However, uncounted votes from Cortez Masto strongholds could vault her to victory.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-await-nevada-election-result-that-could-seal-their-us-senate-majority-2022-11-12/
“Bellwether says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 8:56 am
I’m 100% more fond of Americans today than I was a week ago.”
Indeed!…. It may not be easy to achieve, but Voter De-Moronisation is possible! Latest examples:
USA, Brazil, Australia….. all countries under massive attack by the usual Neoliberal-Conservative manipulators.
I note that most of the commentary is being still posted on the older mid term election thread, FYI
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 11:00 am
I note that most of the commentary is being still posted on the older mid term election thread, FYI
中华人民共和国
Shoud we be nice and tell them? I like our Cartel though.
Note also that CNN’s coverage projects times for vote releases using ET – Eastern Time – ie, the NYC time zone, which is a 3 hours difference from the Nevada time zone.
Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism @ #35 Sunday, November 13th, 2022 – 11:14 am
Too bad. I’m back. 😀
No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen
@NoLieWithBTC
·
6h
A Republican in Michigan who opposed women having the right to vote because he said they don’t have the “characteristics” to govern just lost to a woman.
In case you were wondering how the “red wave” is going.
One for the male cartel to chew on. 😀
Omar Comin’ @ #10 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 9:43 pm
Gambling is bad, m’ok?
Continuation of the Story of ‘freak out ‘ car
SK posted that the car is idling.
Finally A-E got out of the car and got a ride in a car of PBers which apparently was used on previous occasions for drive-by commentry.
Confessions, who got into the car quietly in sad mood, got out of the car much happier.
ar, Arky, Skeptic insisted that the car be parked on the kerb-side for quick departure in next 2 years.
Initially when Victoria and C@tmomma were asked to get in the car, Victoria firmly planted her feet in the ground and refused to move and C@tmomma moved upto the door with a tear or two in the eyes. But once they were told that there is no need to go on the trip in the car they jumped up and down with joy, like kids who are intially forced to go on trip but told that they don’t have to go anymore.
Mavis and Cronus muttered under their breadth that they are too old for this sh*t.
SK still sat in the car because he thought the car was running idle pretending all the time that he is outside the car.
AB, finally after realising that the car is not going anywhere for the time being,unbuckled the seat belt.
Rex, P1 and nath are no where to be seen.
Ven is still bemused by ‘car running idle’ comment because Ven has the car keys and Ven only opened the car doors but never started the car.
Ven noticed the absence of Upnorth.
Historyintime admitted that they got the US mid-term election predictions wrong. 🙂
BTW, Dandy Murray posted that initially his family got in the car. No Idea whether they got out.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 11:16 am
Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism @ #35 Sunday, November 13th, 2022 – 11:14 am
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 11:00 am
I note that most of the commentary is being still posted on the older mid term election thread, FYI
中华人民共和国
Shoud we be nice and tell them? I like our Cartel though.
Too bad. I’m back.
中华人民共和国
Oh you’ve always been in the Cartel sister, apparently (according to one). Once your in you can’t get out.
Ven at 11.50 am
Some people who get paid for polling got their predictions quite wrong, like Trafalgar. For Nevada see:
https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-polls/nevada
No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen
@NoLieWithBTC
·
3h
Republicans are dumbstruck that young voters stopped their red wave while they are simultaneously suing to stop student loan debt relief.
😆
“ Oh you’ve always been in the Cartel sister, apparently (according to one). Once your in you can’t get out.”
____
You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
Ven,
I hope the car is an EV! 😀
How is anyone still finding non-useless content on Twitter? My feed/recommendations with Elon in charge are now:
– Randoms commenting on the FTX/crypto thing
– Randoms offering vague praise in Elon’s general direction
– Right-wingers celebrating various deplorable things, from election wins in the midterms to Sweden killing its Environment ministry and axing all EV subsidies
– Occasional videos of bareknuckle fights, both consensual and non
Doesn’t seem to matter how often I click ‘Not interested’ in these, it just keeps showing more of the same.
a r,
I have been on Twitter a long time and I constantly curate my Followers list. Plus I get recommendations from reliable sources for who to follow. I also just ignore Elon’s ads. 🙂
This does not sound good. A bit like our own Liberal Party not listening to the message the voters just sent them:
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/11/12/the-trump-backlash-might-already-be-fading-00066608
Watching this is like watching a tight golf major. Most of the time it’s boring as bat shit but you can’t stop watching. As long as Trump is castrated politically then it will be a win.
Earlier contributions on wrong thread 🙂
Of the US aggregators, RealClearPolitics have long been known as boosters for Republican aligned astroturfing outfits.
I wonder will they adjust their algorithms to avoid this abysmal pre-election prediction?
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 10:22 am
One of the quaintest features of the US state-based electoral system, is that some states who encourage mass mail-ins – Like Nevada which pretty much issues postal ballots to everyone – also allow ‘curing’ of signatures.
Signed returned envelopes have to match the signature on file, along with other details such as address. So how do the ballots get ‘cured’? In Las Vegas at least, the Culinary Union is please to assist…
UPDATE: @Culinary226 has reached out to 5,100 Nevadans to cure their ballots so far, daily cure program continues with 200 canvassers in the streets, full time phone bank,& organizers inside the casino Employee Dining Rooms to reach workers on their lunch breaks. #WeVoteWeWin
Culinary Union spokesperson says the union’s ballot cure outreach has reached 5,100 people
(Of note: more than 7,000 people have cured their ballots in Clark, a little more than 7,000 remain)
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 10:27 am
About 4 hours away from Washoe /Reno for the next drop…
https://electionresults.washoecounty.gov/
The link is worth a scroll to see who gets elected ‘down ticket’