10:59am Thursday Reps have just been projected to win California’s 27th. That gives them 218 seats and control of the House, with Dems on 208. If all current leads are retained, Reps will win the House by 221-214. Reps lead in the popular vote is down to 51.3-47.1, a 4.2% margin. Earlier, the Dem won Maine’s second 53.1-46.9 after preferences from an independent were counted. This will be my final update to this late counting thread.
3:27pm In Alaska Senate, with 80% counted, the Trump-endorsed Tshibaka’s lead over the moderate Rep incumbent Murkowski narrows to just 43.3-43.1 with 10.0% for a Dem. Those Dem preferences will help Murkowski. In Alaska’s only House seat, the Dem now has 48.1% of primaries, 8% higher than at the August by-election, and will win convincingly. Preferences will be tabulated Nov 24 AEDT.
2pm CNN has called California’s 41st for the Rep, moving them to 217 House seats and now just one away from the majority.
1:41pm Wednesday In non-counting news, Donald Trump has announced his 2024 presidential campaign. Perhaps that will assist Democratic turnout in Georgia’s Senate runoff election in three weeks. In counting news, the Dem’s lead in California’s 13th has been cut back to 50.3-49.7 today from 50.4-49.6 yesterday, but the Dem lead in California’s 47th has widened to 50.8-49.2 from 50.6-49.4 yesterday. CNN currently has the House at 216-205 to the Reps, wha are two wins away from a majority.
3:03pm Dems have overturned a Rep lead in California’s 13th district, and now lead 50.4-49.6 with 58% in. But trends in other California seats are good for the Reps. Also, New York’s 22nd has been called for the Reps. If current leads hold, the final House will be 221-214 to the Reps.
1:37pm Reps will win the Alaska governor, so the final governors’ results will be 26 Reps to 24 Dems. Dems gained Massachusetts and Maryland after moderate Rep governors retired. They also gained Arizona, while the Reps gained Nevada. All election deniers who ran in key swing states for secretary of state – a state’s chief electoral authority – were defeated.
1:05pm Tuesday With almost all votes counted in Arizona, Dem Hobbs will win the governor, a Dem gain; she currently leads by 50.4-49.6. But Reps will win two House seats by 1% or less, taking their tally to 214 seats to 204 for Dems, with 218 needed for a majority. Reps are near certainties now to win a House majority.
2:17pm While California’s late counting has generally been good for the Dems, the exception is the 41st district. The Rep has extended his lead to 51.3-48.7, from 50.7-49.3 yesterday. The Arizona late counting below would be from mail drop ins on Election Day, which were expected to help the Reps.
12:35pm Monday Today’s Arizona counting has been good for the Reps. In Arizona’s first district, the Rep has taken a 50.1-49.9 lead after the Dem led by 50.4-49.6 yesterday. In the sixth, the Rep has extended his lead to 50.3-49.7 from 50.2-49.8 yesterday. If Reps win both these districts, it’s very likely they will win the House majority. Also some US media, but not yet CNN, have called Oregon’s sixth for the Reps.
1:33pm Sunday Clark counting has put Dem Cortez Masto up by 0.5% or almost 5,000 votes statewide in Nevada Senate, and CNN has CALLED it for the Dems, a Dem hold. Dems now have 50 Senate seats to 49 for Reps, and they will HOLD the Senate on Harris’ casting vote, regardless of Georgia’s runoff result in December.
In the House, Washington’s third district has been called for the Dems, a Dem gain. This is a major upset. Reps now lead on seats by 211-204 per CNN, with some races in Arizona and Oregon still close and set to be decided on late counting.
7:20pm Arizona Senate has been CALLED for Dem Kelly as he leads by 51.8-46.1 with 85% counted. In Nevada Senate, Rep Laxalt retains a lead just over 800 votes after a Washoe batch cancelled out with rural counties. But Clark tomorrow should be decisive. In the House, CNN has called four more seats for Dems, who now trail by just 211-203, even though Reps still lead by 5.2% on popular votes.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
At time of writing on Saturday morning, CNN had Democrats winning 48 Senate seats (including seats not up for election and two independents who caucus with Democrats), Republicans had 49 seats and three races were uncalled.
Of the uncalled seats, Georgia will go to a December 6 runoff after no candidate won at least 50% owing to a Libertarian who got 2%. In Arizona, the Democrat leads by 51.7-46.1, and although Election Day mail drop offs are expected to help Republicans, they are unlikely to be enough to overturn that lead. In Nevada, the Republican currently leads by just 48.5-48.4, or just under 800 votes, but there’s more than enough late mail in Democratic-leaning Clark and Washoe counties to overturn that lead.
If Democrats win Arizona and Nevada, they will have 50 Senate seats, enough to control it on Vice President Kamala Harris’ casting vote. However, as I wrote for The Conversation on Wednesday night, Democrats face a very difficult Senate map in 2024, when they will be defending 23 seats and Republicans just ten.
House: Republican majority no sure thing
In the House of Representatives, CNN has called 211 seats for Republicans and 199 for Democrats, a net gain for Republicans of 12. There are 435 total House seats, so 218 are required for a majority.
Two of the remaining uncalled seats used preferential voting: Maine’s second and Alaska’s at-large. In both these cases, I will call for the Democratic candidates. In Maine’s second, the Democrat is leading by 49.2-43.9, and won’t be caught on preferences. In Alaska, Democrat Peltola is at 47.3%, with Republicans Palin at 26.6% and Begich at 24.2%. Peltola’s vote share is 7% higher than at the by-election she won against Palin in August, and should increase further in late counting.
If we give these two seats to Democrats, the House is currently 211-201 to Republicans, leaving 23 uncalled seats. Twelve of these 23 seats are in California, the most populous US state, with 52 total House seats. California takes about four weeks to count all its votes, and Democrats will hope that late mail assists them to overturn Republican leads there.
According to this spreadsheet, Republicans currently lead in 221 House seats and Democrats in 214, so Democrats would need to overturn four current Republican leads to win the House. Despite the tenuous lead for Republicans in seats, they are winning the House popular vote by 52.0-46.5, a 5.5% margin, according to the Cook Political Report. I believe this popular vote lead is partly explained by Democrats not contesting many safe Republican seats, so Republicans won nearly 100% of votes in those seats.
One other federal contest of interest is Alaska Senate, where the Trump-backed Republican Tshibaka leads the moderate Republican incumbent Murkowski by 44.2-42.8 on primary votes with 9.5% for a Democrat. Murkowski is likely to gain in late counting and Democratic preferences will assist her to hold her seat.
The RWNJ Arizona crew, like Charlie Kirk, have been bleating about the earlier Maricopa County ballots coming from the Dem areas. And just you wait for the YUGE turnaround when their ones get counted
Well the latest batch was not bigly for the…
Maricopa County has tabulated 85,656 ballots
Est. 194,885 remain (88% complete)
Batch breakdown
Governor
@KariLake 51.8
@katiehobbs 48.2
Senate
@bgmasters 49.1
@CaptMarkKelly 49.2
AZSOS
@RealMarkFinchem 49.4
@Adrian_Fontes 50.6
AZAG
@AbrahamHamadeh 52.4
@krismayes 47.6
85,656 late early ballots were counted in Maricopa today. They were spread out all over the county, but many this time did come from GOP strongholds in north loop 101 and the southeast valley.
And Nevada…
In a new batch of 23.2k ballots counted in Clark County, here are the #nvsen results:
– Cortez Masto received 14.1k votes (60.4 percent)
– Laxalt received 8.2k votes (35.4 percent)
Race shifts from Laxalt leading statewide by 863 votes to CCM leading by nearly 5k.
NBC calling Nevada for the Dems, 50 Senate seats in the bag
The picture in the Senate became clear on Saturday after Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada narrowly defeated Republican Adam Laxalt to win re-election, putting her party over the threshold, NBC News projected Saturday.
Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona won his re-election contest in Arizona, NBC News projected Friday evening, directing all eyes to Nevada and its two most populous counties, Clark and Washoe, as mail-in ballot counting continued over the weekend.
Both Laxalt and Masters were endorsed by Trump and promoted his false claims about the presidential race he lost. Laxalt has said the 2020 election was “rigged.”
Biden can now count on partners in the Senate to confirm his judicial and administration appointments, even if his legislative agenda ends up effectively blocked because of a Republican takeover of the House.
The president’s party typically loses ground in Congress during the first midterm elections as Americans seek to put a check on power. But weak GOP candidates and voter concern about issues like abortion rights and election denialism galvanized the Democratic base and turned off swing voters in states that might have been winnable for Republicans under different circumstances.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/democrats-maintain-control-senate-nbc-news-projects-defeating-many-tru-rcna56677
Yes, Nevada now blue on 270 to win: https://www.270towin.com/2022-election-results-live/senate/
sprocket_ @ #52 Sunday, November 13th, 2022 – 1:17 pm
Thank you, Las Vegas casino workers. 🙂
I wonder if Trump will ever realize how dumb he comes across? Probably not as ego trumps intelligence
davidwh @ #57 Sunday, November 13th, 2022 – 1:27 pm
davidwh,
Not as dumb as the followers who hang off his every word and believe it!
C@t true but sad.
C@T
Re Nevada, super news!
Arizona looking like a clean sweep…
Minority Leader “Mitch McConnell” – 🙂
Upnorth 🙂
Beautiful set of numbers.
O Nevada! Praise be.
Now for the house. Go California!!
“ And Nevada…
In a new batch of 23.2k ballots counted in Clark County, here are the #nvsen results:
– Cortez Masto received 14.1k votes (60.4 percent)
– Laxalt received 8.2k votes (35.4 percent)
Race shifts from Laxalt leading statewide by 863 votes to CCM leading by nearly 5k.”
_____
ha! I was out by around 2K in terms of democrats pick up from Clark county – those late mail-ins had the democrats down to 60%, the early ones were – i think – tracking at around 67%. So there is that.
However, Sen. Cortez Masto should still pick up around another 5K from the last remaining Reno mail-ins … PLUS, if the local unions can get enough ballots cured then the lead could still hit 15k (and who knows, bring the democrat candidate for governor back into the race, even though he conceded just yesterday).
Sisolack is about 17K behind Lombardo in the Nevada governor’s race – the only Republican flip so far. Could the late vote – outstanding mail-ins and cured ballots – be enough to bring him back in?
From CNN
“Cisco Aguilar, the Democrat who will be Nevada’s next secretary of state, said the “future of American democracy hinged on the outcome” of his race in his matchup with avowed election denier Jim Marchant, who baselessly insisted that the 2020 presidential election in Nevada was “rigged.” Marchant said he would not have certified President Joe Biden’s win in Nevada if he had been secretary of state in 2020.
“My opponent was an election denier who ran a campaign on conspiracy theories,” Aguilar said in remarks prepared for delivery. “My campaign focused on protecting democracy for all Nevadans and ensuring our elections remain free and fair in the future.”
He praised voters “who put country over the party and rejected extremism so that the will of Nevada’s continues to determine the future of our believed state.”
>C@tmomma says:
>Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 11:32 am
>Gambling is bad, m’ok?
lol you must be the life of the party around here
“Democrats have kept control of the Senate after the crucial race in Nevada was announced in their favor, cementing a midterms election performance for the party that widely beat expectations.
Democratic US senator Catherine Cortez Masto has now beaten Republican challenger Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump, the Associated Press said.”
Boom, boom!…. Let’s move to the House now…. 🙂
Alpo Good House News
“FiveThirtyEight’s final election forecast projected that Washington Republican congressional candidate Joe Kent would win by more than 12 points. Instead, in the biggest upset of the midterms, Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has carried the Republican-leaning district in southwestern Washington.
Gluesenkamp Perez is the kind of relatable candidate Democrats have often struggled to nominate in recent years. At 34, she is more than two decades younger than the average House member. After Reed College, she started running a Portland, Oregon, auto shop along with her husband. They live across the state line in rural Skamania County, Washington, in a home they built themselves. She’d run for office once before in 2016. Gluesenkamp Perez lost that race for county commission, but managed to run ahead of Hillary Clinton by 6 points.”
Mother Jones
A comment I read, which I agree:
Now on to GA, as there is a WORLD of Difference between a Senate with 51-Ds & 50-Ds. With only 50-Ds, major committees are split 50/50, meaning nominations get held up (or are even forced to withdraw). That changes with 51 D Senators. (the MSM never covers this, but there was a LOT of Key nominations that got held up or had to withdraw, due to the 50/50 split in the past 2yrs).
My hope is that sensible R’s in GA, knowing that Senate control is not at stake, will stay home rather than to give their vote to someone as reprehensible and unqualified as Mr. Walker.
”
Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatismsays:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 3:43 pm
Alpo Good House News
“FiveThirtyEight’s final election forecast projected that Washington Republican congressional candidate Joe Kent would win by more than 12 points. Instead, in the biggest upset of the midterms, Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has carried the Republican-leaning district in southwestern Washington.
Gluesenkamp Perez is the kind of relatable candidate Democrats have often struggled to nominate in recent years. At 34, she is more than two decades younger than the average House member. After Reed College, she started running a Portland, Oregon, auto shop along with her husband. They live across the state line in rural Skamania County, Washington, in a home they built themselves. She’d run for office once before in 2016. Gluesenkamp Perez lost that race for county commission, but managed to run ahead of Hillary Clinton by 6 points.”
Mother Jones
”
Indeed! I posted about this seat yesterday in previous US thread, where I mentioned that she is on her way to win the seat.
C@tmomma:
“A cadre of conservative senators is moving to shift blame onto Trump’s favored target: Republican leader MITCH McCONNELL. At least seven GOP senators want a delay in next week’s leadership elections — with one, MAGA darling Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.), demanding a leadership change altogether.”…
Ha, ha…. great!… Perfect recipe to start a bloody GOP Civil War…. Oh, and McConnell will be playing the role of Ulysses S. Grant, btw…. 🙂
“Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 3:43 pm”
These are the seats where the Republicans are only marginally ahead and there are still enough votes to be counted for them to lose the race:
– Oregon 5th
– California 13th
– California 41st
– Arizona 6th
In much closer races, given the small number of votes still to be counted:
In Colorado 3d there are still 1% of votes to be counted and the Republicans are ahead by just 0.4%.
In New York 22nd there are still 3% of votes to be counted and the Republicans are ahead by just 1.6%.
If the Democrats (marginally) win the House too, I think that there will be a very serious “Civil War” unleashing in the Republican party…. That’s good, because it will keep them very busy for the next couple of years….
Realistically I can’t see the Republicans getting less than 218 House seats most likely 1 or 2 more.
“davidwh says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 4:04 pm
Realistically I can’t see the Republicans getting less than 218 House seats most likely 1 or 2 more.”
That’s a realistic possibility, of course. But at this stage, and given what has happened so far, I think that we can just offer our predictions and then watch the actual results unfolding….
The base line for the GOP seems to be around 220 house seats. However, the count in some of the Californian seats is very slow – and I don’t think anyone really knows what the GOP/Dem split with late votes will be like. Leads of 2% with 50% counted can easily swing the other way. It’s going to be a long couple of weeks, but conventional wisdom seems to be that the GOP will finish in low 220s. This makes any attempt at impeachment of Biden unlikely – the GOP caucus won’t hold 100% discipline.
Of interest is that 3 of the Supreme Court judges are men in their 70s, and both Roberts and Thomas have had health scares in the past (not sure about Alito). Odds are that Biden won’t get another chance to appoint another judge to the Court, but the Dem Senate majority means that if one of the current judges should falter, and need to be replaced, then the court will return to a 5/4 split – with Roberts being the swing vote (assuming he is not the one to be replaced).
”
Alposays:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 4:04 pm
“Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 3:43 pm”
These are the seats where the Republicans are only marginally ahead and there are still enough votes to be counted for them to lose the race:
– Oregon 5th
– California 13th
– California 41st
– Arizona 6th
In much closer races, given the small number of votes still to be counted:
In Colorado 3d there are still 1% of votes to be counted and the Republicans are ahead by just 0.4%.
In New York 22nd there are still 3% of votes to be counted and the Republicans are ahead by just 1.6%.
If the Democrats (marginally) win the House too, I think that there will be a very serious “Civil War” unleashing in the Republican party…. That’s good, because it will keep them very busy for the next couple of years….
”
Alpo
Repubs are about to lose CA-13.
https://twitter.com/cbouzy/status/1591387927904669696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1591387927904669696%7Ctwgr%5E94371a8dd3a74c5c6001d23a1db3004386254152%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2022%2F11%2F12%2F2135708%2F-Marie-Gluesenkamp-Perez-takes-WA-03
MSNBC is now projecting that Republicans will have a 219-216 majority plus or minus 4 seats.
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/12/2135697/-Dems-chances-of-holding-House-increase-with-flip-of-WA-3-MSNBC-now-projecting-219-216-GOP-majority
MSNBC projected that Democrats won another seat when Yadira Caraveo defeated Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer for an upset victory in Colorado’s 8th CD. This was an open seat created after Colorado gained a seat after the 2020 census. She will become the first Latina to represent Colorado in Congress.
“sprocket_says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 1:38 pm
Arizona looking like a clean sweep…”…
… and pathetic Kari Lake lost… Is that proof that there is a God after all?… 🙂
Boebert looks to be hanging on, so no. Or if there is, he’s sloppy.
Trump begone!
“a r says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 6:00 pm
Boebert looks to be hanging on, so no. Or if there is, he’s sloppy.”…
Yeah, I suspected that the proof for the existence of God couldn’t be so simple… 🙂
Hitting 50 in the senate is great, and should make it easier to hit 51 – easier to motivate democrats to limit the power of manchin than to motivate republicans to vote to give manchin a bit more power.
House is going well too. 211 R vs 206 called on abc. But there’s still a blue vs blue seat (cal 34) so the real number is 207.
There’s a few east wins from here for the democrats. The two going to preferences seem likely to go the democrats way. There’s a couple in cali that no one will call with so little counted (35%) but every reason to assume the count will become bluer over time as more votes are counted.
That puts D on 211.
The republicans don’t have any outstanding you’d bet your bottom dollar. Cali 27 and 45 have ok margins but low count % and would assume they’ll blue shift over time.
Even counting them for R, that’s still a modest 213 vs 211 R lead. And then for the remaining seats, a blue shift is more likely than a red shift generally
MSNBC is predicting a Republican House 219: 216 Democrat. 😀
https://youtu.be/LsPbluvoAcM
Steve Kornacki
Voice endeavour @ #88 Sunday, November 13th, 2022 – 7:05 pm
Are there any procedural advantages to having a clear majority as opposed to being 50-50 and the VP having the deciding vote?
If the VP is out sick or away, you can still do business as usual?
Also may have some relevance on procedural/rules matters, like nuking the filibuster, that Manchin/Sinema won’t get behind. Though if those two operate as a bloc 51 still isn’t enough.
I wouldn’t get too excited about nuking the filibuster, even if the Dems do get to 51. Remember that both Manchin and Sinema are against the idea, and there’s also a suggestion that Jon Tester from Montana is also against the idea, but he hasn’t had to say so publicly. The Dems probably need 53 or 54 Senators to do away with the filibuster.
I just listened to Al Franken and Norm Ornstein discuss what is the difference between a 50-50 Senate and a 51-49 Senate, and it’s a lot!
https://youtu.be/4g3aWqveK-o
Of course, having 51 Senators is better than 50, even without filibuster reform, as it does give Schumer more options in getting things through. But most important it provides a bit more buffer ahead of a very difficult Senate map for the Dems in 2024, where there are no real pick-up opportunities, while at the same time having to defend seats in red states like Ohio, West Virginia and Montana. This year’s election shows the value of incumbency, which will help, but it’s going to be tough for the blue team in two years’ time.
Hugoaugogo
Apparently having 51-49 also means you can have majority on various committees etc rather than having ‘split’ numbers.
sprocket_
I had some time on my hands after the cricket and plugged the Arizona Governor county by county numbers (from NBC) into a spreadsheet – assuming same rates per county of all the apparently remaining votes on a county by county basis (obviously a big assumption)
Hobbs – currently 1156448 votes = 50.7%
Lake – currently 1122319 votes = 49.2%
Final estimated tallies
Hobbs – 1323054 votes = 50.9%
Lake – 1273396 votes = 49.0%
If this turns out to be true, I am looking forward to Kari Lake’s concession speech!
I don’t get why people say 2024 will be tough for democrats.
They have a very good chance of a pickup in Arizona – the primary should be easy and the state is becoming blue it seems.
West Virginia is another likely probable for them.
If Ted Cruz is sick of the whole thing and retires, Texas could (yes I know people always claim this) come into play. Candidate quality matters and R will likely pick a maga nut job to replace him.
Indiana is on a tight margin with a retiring incumbent.
Florida is tight margin but will swing red.
At risk?
Maybe West Virginia is at risk as well as a potential pickup opportunity.
Montana is marginal and at risk.
Nevada is marginal but the incumbent is running again and the state is trending blue. Not at risk
Michigan and Ohio are decent margins but could still be at risk.
4 potential gains, 4 potential losses counting WV as both. That’s not a bad election to run
Sorting out the House: If Democrats win three of the five closest toss-ups, it’s 218 D vs 217 R
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/13/2135861/-Sorting-out-the-House-If-Democrats-win-three-of-the-five-closest-toss-ups-it-s-218-D-vs-217-R
Six D likely Holds:
AK-01 & ME-02 are the ranked choice races.
CA-6, CA-9, CA-21, and CO-8.
Three R likely holds:
CA-3, CA-45, and OR-5
That brings it to D 210, and R 214. Eleven close races left…
Five of those are leaning or expected to be D wins; just one is leaning to be an R win.
Five D leans:
AZ-1 — Maricopa County race (Phoenix). Biden won in ‘20, D Hodge currently has 0.8% lead.
CA-13 — the Dem candidate Gray trails by just 84 votes, and with almost 40% left to count, has good chances.
CA-47— D Katie Porter has a 2.8% lead
CA-49 — D Levin currently leads by 4.8%
OR-6— D Salinas has a 1.8% lead
One R lean:
NY-22— the R candidate B. Williams leads by 1.6% with 97% reported
That brings it to D 215 and R 215; the five seats remaining are rated more toss-up. Whichever party wins three of these controls the House:
The Five Toss-Ups to Control the House:
AZ-6. — D Engel trails by 0.4% with 87% counted. Biden won Pima County (includes Tucson) with 59% in 2020.
CA-22 — The D candidate Salas trails by 5% with 53% of the vote counted. The Washington Post analysts predict Salas will pull it out.
CA-27 — D Smith is down 10.8% now, but… quoting the WP today: “northern Los Angeles County seat is majority Hispanic and a big target for Democrats because Biden ran up double digits here in 2020. Smith is slightly favored.”
CA-41— The R candidate Calvert has a 1.4% lead over D Rollins. Trump won the district by 1 point; chances are Calvert holds his lead.
CO-03— Lauren Boebert has a 1100 vote lead, 0.4% over Adam Frisch. How awesome would it be if the Democrats win the House because Boebert lost her race!!??
If by any chance Dems eke out a miraculous 218-217 victory in US HOR, Kevin McCarthy political career will be finished.
And the Repugs will tear themselves apart for next 2 years.
VE – I think people say that the 2024 Senate is tough for the Democrats because, well, it is.
In 2024, the following stares will be voting for Senator:
Arizona – Kirsten Sinema (D) – Yes, Arizona is trending purple, but it’s not California, and if someone like Doug Ducey, the former GOP Governor, puts his hand up, this one is a real toss-up, especially if the Dems have (as seems likely) a bloody primary.
California – Dianne Feinstein (D) – the veteran Democrat will be 91 at the next election, and rumoured to be cognitive decline. Presumably she’ll retire, and another Democrat will win easily.
Connecticut – Chris Murphy (D) – will win easily in a very Blue state.
Delaware – Tom Carper (D) – will win easily in a very Blue state.
Florida – Rick Scott (R) – I think we can now safely say that Florida is now a solid red state, and I can’t see any Democrat winning statewide office there for the next decade.
Hawaii – Mazie Hirono (D) – will win easily in deep blue Hawaii
Indiana – Mike Braun (R) – Braun is retiring to run for Governor, which in theory makes this a pick-up opportunity, but Indiana is very red, and the Democratic bench is pretty thin.
Maine – Angus King (I/ D) – King is very popular, but he hasn’t said if he is running again. If it’s a straight Dem v GOP race, then the Dems would be slight favourites in a presidential year, but no sure thing.
Maryland – Ben Cardin (D) – will win easily in a very blue state.
Massachusetts – Elizabeth Warren (D) – will win comfortably.
Michigan – Debbie Stabenow (D) – will probably win, but Michigan is not as deep blue as some.
Minnesota – Amy Klobuchar (D) – will almost certainly win. Minnesota is probably the bluest state in the upper mid-West outside Illinois, and Klobuchar is pretty well-established.
Mississippi – Roger Wicker (R) – will the Dems even put forward a serious candidate? Easy GOP retain.
Missouri – Josh Hawley (R) – Not so long ago, Missouri was a swing state, but those days are long gone.
Montana – Jon Tester (D) – If Tester runs, he will probably win in a Presidential year, but no certainty is an otherwise reddish state.
Nebraska – Deb Fisher (R) – will win comfortably is a mostly red state.
Nevada – Jacky Rosen (D) – Nevada leans Democrat, but as we’ve seen this year, not by much, and no Nevada office-holder can be certain of re-election in any year.
New Jersey – Bob Menendez (D) – probable Dem retain in a relatively blue state in a Presidential election year, but there is a smell about Menendez which raises a small risk.
New Mexico – Martin Heinrich (D) – NM is pretty solidly Democrat these days, so they should hold this.
New York – Kirsten Gillibrand (D) – will be re-elected comfortably in a blue New York, notwithstanding the apparent loss of a few House seats this time around.
North Dakota – Kevin Cramer (R) – Fewer that 800,000 people live in North Dakota, and apparently no Democrats with any hope of winning statewide office.
Ohio – Sherrod Brown (D) – Brown has successfully remained a Senator from this trending red state, and presumably he will win. But eventually that tide might run out on him.
Pennsylvania – Bob Casey (D) – Casey is pretty well-established in the Keystone State, and will presumably win, but it might be interesting with a half-decent GOP candidate.
Rhode Island – Sheldon Whitehouse (D) – should win comfortably in a very blue state.
Tennessee – Marsha Blackburn (R) – Should comfortably in a very red state.
Texas – Ted Cruz (R) – Cruz nearly lost to Beto O’Rourke in 2018, and Texas is slowly trending purple, but I’d be shocked if the Senate’s most dislieable member isn’t re-elected comfortably.
Utah – Mitt Romney (R) – Romney will be comfortably re-elected to remain one of the few Republican Senators with any sort of conscience e.
Vermont – Bernie Sanders (I/ D) – Bernie will be 83 come the next election, and hasn’t said if he’ll run again. If he does, he’ll win in a landslide, but if he doesn’t, and GOP Vermont Governor Phil Scott runs, it might be a potential pick-up opportunity for the Republicans.
Virginia – Tim Kaine (D) – Virginia is mostly blue these days, but not entirely (see: Youngkin). If Kaine runs again he’ll win, but if not, the Dem will still probably win, but not definitely.
Washington – Maria Cantwell (D) – There was some talk that Patty Murray was in trouble this year, but it didn’t happen, and so Cantwell will win comfortably in a Presidential year.
West Virginia – Joe Manchin (D) – Manchin is the last of the old school of Democrats able to win big in otherwise red states, but he’ll be 77 in 2024, and might feel he has enough. If he does retire, the GOP will win this seat easily, and even if he doesn’t, he’s not so popular as to be completely invulnerable. Either way, I’d rate this a toss-up.
Wisconsin – Tammy Baldwin (D) – Wisconsin just re-elected the dodgy Ron Johnson, so Republicans can and do win here, but Baldwin is very popular and will presumably win.
Wyoming – John Barrasso (R) – Wyoming has a population of less than 600,000, and most of the ones who vote are Republicans.
So, the Dems should hold CA, CT, DE, HI, ME*, MD, MA, Mi, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, VT*, VA, WA, WI (with * meaning assuming that the popular independent incumbents run again).
Meanwhile, the Republicans should win: FL, IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, TX, UT, WY.
This leaves up with the following states up for grabs: AZ, MT, NV, OH, PA & WV, and at least three of these, Montana, Ohio and West Virginia, Dem chances are pretty much entirely reliant on the incumbent running.
So to my mind, there don’t appear to any GOP states that the Dems could win, while there are half a dozen Dem states that could go the other way in the right/ wrong circumstances.