Freshwater Strategy: 56-44 to Labor in Victoria

Another Victorian state election poll fails to corroborate Newspoll’s finding of a narrowing gap. Also: the Poll Bludger election guide expands to cover the Legislative Council.

The Financial Review has a poll from Freshwater Strategy, which made its debut for the paper three weeks ago with a New South Wales poll, that credits Labor with a lead of 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34%, Greens 14% and others 15%. Daniel Andrews is on 39% approval and 48% disapproval, Matthew Guy is at 32% aod 48%, and Andrews leads 40% to 28% as preferred premier. We are also told that Jacinta Allan’s rating is neutral, Tim Pallas is at minus 12, the Labor brand is at plus 10 and the Liberals are on minus six. “Close to 60 per cent of Victorians” including 39% of Labor voters, believe they were locked down too long.The highest ranked issue by far was cost of living, followed by “health and social care” and “managing the Victorian economy”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.


• The Poll Bludger state election guide now comprehensively covers the Legislative Council, including an overview and the usual thorough guides to each of the eight regions. The upper house contest happens to be in the news today following Adem Somyurek’s announcement that he will seek re-election in South-Eastern Metropolitan as the candidate of the Democratic Labour Party. Somyurek’s, whose DLP colleagues include Bernie Finn in Western Metropolitan, tells the Herald-Sun he will represent the “sensible centre of Victorian politics”.

• “Prominent Melbourne art collector” Andrew King says he will pay the $350 nomination fees of the first 50 people who come forward to run against Daniel Andrews in Mulgrave. King’s theory is that this will divert voters from Andrews “by reducing his first preference vote, diverting votes away from him, and increasing the likelihood of informal votes”. On what remains of Twitter, Antony Green relates that the total number of candidates could exceed 600, compared with an already over-stuffed 507 in 2018, boosted by Family First’s determination to run candidates in all 88 seats.

• In a Twitter thread, Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group argued that the anti-lockdown parties, including Angry Victorians and the Freedom Party together with the United Australia Party, complicated Liberal ambitions in seats like Melton as they like were competing for the same demographic turf of asset-owning white voters with trade qualifications and incomes of over $100,000 a year. Labor’s voters in such areas tended to be newer arrivals with lower incomes and mortgages, many of them migrants.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

298 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 56-44 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. Seats with the current minimum of 5 candidates (ALP, Coalition, GRN, AJP, FFV): Wendouree, South Barwon, Murray Plains, Malvern, Ivanhoe, Glen Waverley, Eltham, Dandenong, Croydon. Euroa has the same lineup but with 2 Coalition candidates so they have 6. Bundoora and Box Hill (currently missing AJP) and Bulleen (currently missing FFV) have others on the ballot so they are above 5 regardless.

    ABC currently has for lower house: 88 ALP, 88 GRN, 87 FFV, 86 AJP, 83 LIB, 74 IND, 32 FPV, 22 VS, 11 NAT, 10 DLP, 8 RP, 7 LDP, 5 PHON, 5 SFF, 4 ND, 3 HAP, 1 CPP. I know of at least 8 independents that ABC doesn’t have, which would make 82. However these independents are not always spread out, and there are several districts with more than one.

    In other news, ex-Greens MLC Nina Springle is running for the Reason Party in NE Metro.

  2. I did a ‘like with like’ comparison of the latest Newspoll for Victoria with the Newspoll taken at about the same time in 2018.

    There was little significant difference between them.

    Basically, I read it as people realising that the election’s approaching and giving a knee jerk reaction to how they’ll vote without actually having put thought into it.

    As with the last election (if Newspoll is at all a guide), once they have a look at what’s on offer, their votes will shift (as in, people whose first impulse is to vote Liberal, won’t).

  3. Others 15%
    Greens 14%
    The voters of Victoria really don’t like Dan Andrews or that lobster with a mobster bloke. Methinks the minor parties and independent vote will be even higher on election night. What a fascinating election. Labor minority firming.

  4. wonder how guy feels about pessutos campaign t o chalinge him ifh he wins horthorn usualy if liberals united a candadate dont pitch them selves as a future leaderin the middle of the campaign pessuto agrees with guy on policy including his push to give religous schools mor rights to discriminate if liberals knew how bad guy was whiy did smith and credlin push for him to come back as leader given his 2018 performents

  5. This poll continues the story that this election is likely to be easily won by the ALP and it’s unusual for polls to get it so consistently wrong. Developments in the election campaign can change things sometimes, but so far it’s been more of the same- literally, with the Murdoch press recycling their narrative that Andrews must be guilty of… something nefarious….because he fell down some steps and/0r his wife was involved in a car accident 9 years ago. The latest IBAC narrative also seems like more of the same.

    There are outlier cases. In 1999 at the beginning of the campaign all the published polls but Morgan pointed to an easy Kennett win, the Nielsen poll had a 53.5 coalition 2PP and Newspoll had it at 56-44. Morgan pointed to a closer result. But on the other hand as we know, in 2018 most polls significantly underestimated the ALP 2PP. Absent a huge polling error, at the moment, there’s minimal prospect of Andrews going anywhere, with only a small prospect of him having to govern in minority in the lower house.

  6. I have read that Somyurek is standing in the Northern Metro Region for the DLP.

    A bit strange as his base has always been the Turkish population in the South East. But there are more people of Turkish ethnicity in the North Metro region. Perhaps that is the reason for the switch.

  7. “Freshwater Strategy: 56-44 to Labor in Victoria”…

    So far so good… Of course, we know that the opinion polls have been wrong in the past… but they have also been correct many, many times…. 🙂

  8. “Jeremy says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 7:01 am

    …Looks like Andrew’s stuffed. Can’t get his message out. Journalists really not like him.”

    Ha, ha, ha… the msm journalists really don’t like Dan and the ALP?… Jeremy, “thank you very much” for your “genial insight”, we don’t know what we would do without you…. Ha, ha, ha!

    Whether Dan and the Vic ALP are “stuffed”…. stay in the trench, and watch the results on election night…. 🙂

  9. “Jeremy says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 6:45 am
    ….Labor minority firming.”

    Ha, ha, ha!…. I lost count how many times Liberal party stormtroopers have predicted that… Last time was at the recent federal election… 🙂

  10. Hi nath, a fan of your posts during the May federal election. Hope you continue to post these next three weeks.
    l know Kos thinks the Indian vote will break with the ALP, however l had heard elsewhere that this demographic much more likely to swing or even vote Liberal as they are “aspirational”. Anyone have knowledge on the Indian vote from previous elections? Melton, Werribee, Tarneit, Point Cook could all be interesting battles on election night. Fascinating election.

  11. Last election it was the attack on blacks, this election it is an attack on Andrews. That really seems to be the only change. Both elections nothing really constructive out of the Liberal party.

  12. It must be very frustrating for Newscorp and Ninefax proprietors, management and stenographers that so many of the good voters of Victoria are apparently getting ready to once again ignore instructions regarding the coming State election…

  13. Given Mediawatch last night, how many (and who?) are going to be influenced by the media and their presentations?

    And how many are going to be influenced to vote Labor in the face of this concerted media attack on democracy, seeking to openly influence who citizens vote for?

    The absolute rank attack on Labor by media proprietors was laid bare by 7.30

    Polling suggests that citizens are turned off by this attempt to manipulate the election result by media proprietors

    What I do know from my lifetime is that the attacks, the innuendos replicate the Murdoch attacks on Dunstan during his years as Premier of SA (and Adelaide had 2 papers at that time, The Advertiser more discrete but attacking never the less)

    Dunstan retired, handing leadership to Corcoran

    And Labor has been the dominant Party since – except for one term Liberal governments every 15 years or so – and when in government they disintegrate to minority governments

    Bannon, Rann and Wetherald as long serving Labor Premiers were also the subject of constant attacks by Murdoch, Murdoch resorting to the attacks such as we see on Andrews

    Then you get to the attacks on Federal Labor leaders

  14. Cheers Jeremy. I think the Indian vote has been very solidly Labor so far. Both parties have been stacking them to varying degrees of success.

    If not the West, then the Outer South East will be where any shift in the Indian community towards the Liberals would have some significance.

  15. Jeremy says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 7:34 am
    Hi nath, a fan of your posts….
    Anyone have knowledge on the Indian vote from previous elections? Melton, Werribee, Tarneit, Point Cook could all be interesting..
    Indians backed a loser at Battle of the Little Bighorn.

  16. The thing with Sky News is that it’s so bold and extreme with its bias that it doesn’t actually try to disguise it or pretend to be reporting more impartially. Therefore, none of their attacks can be very effective because they are always seen through the lens of their known bias.

    Those who don’t share Sky’s views either avoid it, or watch it for a laugh just to see how loopy they get, and even their diehard viewership would understand the concept that “Of course Sky would have that view” but they specifically watch because they know Sky can be trusted to echo and confirm their own view.

    But really, the net result is that they’re not actually influencing anybody, or changing anyone’s vote because everybody knows what their agenda is. Put it this way – anybody listening to Andrew Bolt was never going to vote Labor in the first place and probably never has.

  17. Opinion.
    Attacks on Dan Andrews are part of News Corporation’s long abuse of power.
    Sane people trying to fathom the Herald Sun’s bizarre coverage of Victorian Premier Dan Andrews over the past few days might be helped by some insights from the founding of News Limited, the company on which Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation empire has been built and of which the Herald Sun is part.

  18. I agree with many here who are detecting a relative loss of media influence in Victoria (and I would say that the trend is becoming national).

    I mean, the concept couldn’t be simpler: Just vote in support of your own interests… Just identify your interests (it should be easy) and vote for the party that best fulfills them!… Ignore the media that’s desperately trying to shift your vote to the party that you have already identified as being bad for your personal interests (whether you are interested in a job, a good salary, a better environment, better social services, better education, better and more affordable healthcare, or whatever else).

  19. Pollbludger headline says: Another Victorian state election poll fails to corroborate Newspoll’s finding of a narrowing gap.

    I demand another poll! This one is 24 hours old. Surely one day soon Victorians will wake up and follow the Newscorpse / Costello media’s collective instructions.

    Seems those pesky polls just aren’t budging….

    I am now confidently predicting a massive landslide win for the Lobster Guy. On the basis of the current polling, and the collective wisdom of some of our more regular posters.

    All frivolity aside, I still can’t understand how 45% of the population would like to see the liberal national Pentecostal party on the treasury benches.

    On the hustings on Saturday and Sunday, for the Greens, it was quite remarkable just how old the LNP diehards are. The rudest people (admittedly there were only 3 or 4 of them ) have maybe one or two elections left in them.

    The other telling factor was just how disengaged the general public are. They don’t care or know that an election is on. How those voters break will determine this election.

  20. “citizen says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 8:58 am
    Time travel in Murdochland”…

    Thanks to Murdoch, the Libs will be bashed even more seriously at the election. I don’t think that Victorians will take lightly, media statements that actually suggest that they are a “bunch of stupid morons, gullible and brainless, that can be manipulated at will by Liberal party smartarses and their media mates….”.

    Being an “idiot” is becoming utterly un-Victorian!

  21. Fancy revisiting a matter that occurred in January 2013. Nearly 10 years ago. Catherine Andrews was the driver, and the cyclist rode into their car.
    No fault payment was made to the cyclist.
    The suggestion that one can sue 10 years later is funny. Did the cyclist get his advice from a lawyer or from the herald sun.

    Its obvious that the herald sun is courting the cooker vote.
    This same paper is what caused so much angst for victorians during the height of the pandemic.
    They were beyond pathetic.

  22. I got a flyer in my letterbox (Bayswater) yesterday from the Freedom Party with “Vote Labor Last” in huge letters on both sides. I’d never heard of the Freedom Party before.

    If it’s a sentiment that takes off on the right, the Greens might benefit in a couple of close seats.

  23. Victoria says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 9:23 am

    For eg. Construction workers are taking notice of this election.
    They know that their jobs are on the ballot.

    In addition to this one, there’s also the “Dan might be a prick, but he’s a prick who’s delivering for construction workers”.

  24. I have met a lot of crazies over the past few months, in parks, cafes and acquaintances that have seemingly gone feral. We can only speculate on its dimensions. I suspect that the nutters in Victoria have doubled since COVID began. So, if the ON and UAP vote in Vic was around 5% previously, as a measure of nuttiness. Then we could be looking at 10% nuttiness this time around. Time will tell.

  25. Of the target Greens seats, it looks like the ‘Freedom Party’ are fielding candidates in Northcote, Preston & Melbourne, but none have been announced (as yet) in Prahran, Richmond, Albert Park, Footscray or Pascoe Vale.

  26. @Victoria – “Mind you the incident with the cyclist occurred two years before Labor were in power. The vic govt at the time were the libs.”


    Great point. A little strange for the Herald Sun to somehow be insinuating a Victoria Police / government cover-up of the crash investigation, and feeding that into the “Dan is corrupt” narrative, when the investigation occurred under a Liberal government.

  27. Not sure why anyone cares what the Herald Sun is saying. They’ve been absolutely relentless with their anti-ALP coverage for as long as I can remember. If they had any actual influence:

    * The Libs wouldn’t have lost at the 2014 state election. Or been wiped out in 2018.
    * Frydenberg would be PM currently.
    * There would be zero teal members in federal parliament representing Vic seats.
    * The Greens would only poll a few %

    They’re yesterdays news. Same goes for Neil Mitchell and the rest of the imbeciles over at 3AW. Their foaming listeners have never voted anything but for the coalition.

  28. Jeremy says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 8:03 am

    Make fun of skynews, l agree with you but many voters don’t and believe what Credlin says like many on this site believe whatever ALP says.

    Australia-wide pay TV viewer numbers for last night.
    CREDLIN 48,000
    THE BOLT REPORT 44,000

    “Many voters”, yeah no.

  29. The media are becoming increasingly brazen and it looks like it’s only going to ramp up over the next few weeks.

    Which honestly seems like such an idiotic play by news corp and nine-fairfax. The harder they push the more overt their bias becomes to a greater number of people and it only strengthens the case for a royal commission into the media.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if these attacks galvanise support for the ALP.

  30. Nathan, I’m glad you posting. Don’t you love a lot of the posters on this site complaining about the “anti Dan” sentiment of the Age, then next post state with a straight face that absolutely nobody takes media seriously. That’s the ALP luvvies for you. Shorten still the devil?

  31. C’mon Folks.
    I have avidly read the Sydney Morning Herald, every day, since I was 15 – now 66.
    I have always been a lefty and accepted, whilst it was a Fairfax publication a degree of centre-right bias.
    Similarly, whenever visiting Melbourne, I chose to read The Age, with a similar degree of pro-LNP bias.
    However, the collapse in readership, has negated the influence of the print media in regard to election cover.
    The informed, will just laugh off the pathetic attempts by The Age & Herald-Sun, to tarnish Daniel Andrews with ancient, non-news.
    As for broadcast media – most people congregate to the outlets which reflects their personal bias or point of view.
    Personally, I believe that the influence of media, of any form, is greatly exaggerated and mostly irrelevant in Australia.

  32. ‘Jeremy says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 6:45 am

    Others 15%
    Greens 14%
    The voters of Victoria really don’t like Dan Andrews or that lobster with a mobster bloke. Methinks the minor parties and independent vote will be even higher on election night. What a fascinating election. Labor minority firming.’
    A Voice Buster eliding the Greens’ wrecker status. Voters not fooled: 85% voting against the Voice Busters.

  33. Macca RB says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 11:07 am

    C’mon Folks.
    I have avidly read the Sydney Morning Herald, every day, since I was 15 – now 66.
    I have always been a lefty and accepted, whilst it was a Fairfax publication a degree of centre-right bias.
    Similarly, whenever visiting Melbourne, I chose to read The Age, with a similar degree of pro-LNP bias.
    The SMH has endorsed Labor more than the Liberals in recent times. I believe The Age is even more pro Labor on endorsements.

  34. Macca RB

    The print media doesnt have much influence, but online media including social media does.

    Unfortunately many people have gone down the rabbit hole, getting their information from very influential disinformation sites.

    Just look at qanon. Millions of people have been sucked into this vortex. This includes many australians that actually believe this cray cray stuff.

    I actually have relatives who believed that the lockdowns in melbourne were so that dan andrews could traffick children through underground tunnels.

    I still cant get my head around the fact that middleaged people bought into this crapola.

    And mind you these people are very financial and continue to do well financially.

    We are not talking about homeless, despondent people who have been forgotten by society.

    I will go to my grave not understanding how and why…..

  35. Victoria says:

    I actually have relatives who believed that the lockdowns in melbourne were so that dan andrews could traffick children through underground tunnels.
    I haven’t heard that one. sounds like an extension of the Hilary Clinton absurdity.

  36. nath

    It is part of the qanon shit show.

    The cookers as they are known here, bought into this crapola as soon as the pandemic hit.
    Im embarrassed for them but at the same time i have not much sympathy.

    If they truly believe that children were being trafficked through tunnels, why arent they out in the real world trying to save them.

    Instead they are on their keyboards sharing their wankery with others.

    Narcissists come to mind.

  37. zoomster 0639 am

    I think you’re right. Working in health and dealing with hundreds of co-workers in Melbourne and regional Victoria over the last few months there is very little engagement with the election. Partly I think because the Federal Election in May took much of the heat out of lots of issues, but also recent floods etc just hold people’s attention more.

    I think probably only next week when prepoll voting starts will the interest ramp up. I expect a mild TPP swing against Labor, but I think the Liberals like their Federal counterparts will see some of their ‘traditional’ seats like Kew and Hawthorn (currently Labor) go to Independents making their path to Government all but impossible.

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