Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)

A new federal poll finds Labor maintaining a commanding lead, with most undecided on the question of stage three tax cuts.

Newspoll may be spinning on its wheels, but the Age/Herald has come through with the third Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention since the election, three weeks after the last. This one has Labor on 39% (steady), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 12% (up two), One Nation on 5% (down one), the United Australia Party on 3% (up one) and independents on 9% (up one). Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish its own two-party numbers, but a fun new tool from Armarium Interreta allows you to punch in primary vote numbers and get a two-party result based on preference flows from the May election, which suggests a Labor lead of about 58-42.

Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is 60% (steady) compared with 25% for poor and very poor (up one), and he leads 53-18 on preferred prime minister (53-19 last time). Peter Dutton has a positive rating of 30% (up two) and a negative rating of 41% (up one). The poll also had questions on the budget and tax, the most interesting of which finds 34% supporting and 13% opposing the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with fully 53% “undecided/neutral”, and on the Optus security breach. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)”

Comments Page 41 of 44
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  1. Wow! Cookers and Kookbabblers won’t take them but I will:

    “Vaccines to fight cancer could be widely available before 2030, the husband and wife team behind one of the most successful Covid-19 jabs has said.

    Lessons learnt in the pandemic will accelerate cancer treatments based on mRNA technology, Professor Ugur Sahin and Professor Ozlem Tureci said.

    The couple co-founded BioNTech in Mainz, Germany, in 2008, to work principally on cancer. When the pandemic started, they changed focus to create a vaccine, working with the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer.

    Their vaccine uses mRNA to give the body a blueprint of the coronavirus’s spike protein. This tells cells to make copies of the protein, which teach the immune system to recognise and fight it.

    Tureci said in an interview on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg on the BBC: “What we have developed over decades for cancer vaccine development has been the tailwind for developing the Covid-19 vaccine, and now the Covid-19 vaccine and our experience in developing it gives back to our cancer work.” She said that they had learnt how to manufacture vaccines better and faster, as well as how the immune system reacted to mRNA “in a large number of people”.

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/expect-cancer-vaccine-by-2030-say-covid-pioneers/news-story/27bb9c1536f4ae535633adf1ea9bc4ce

  2. How to ruin a beautiful morning coffee here in Amsterdam- 4 pages of S4 Tax Cut ‘discussions’…..that offers nothing new.

    As for fashion, I slipped outside in the semi-dark this morning to urgently put out the rubbish- in my footy shorts, socks and thongs…..and of course a stream of well dressed Dutch women turned up from no where to observe the spectacle!


  3. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 4:19 pm
    David Shoebridge
    @DavidShoebridge
    ·
    1m
    It’s honestly shocking that the NSW Government is seeking to block UN torture inspectors from surprise visits to NSW jails.

    Telling an institution when you are coming for a surprise visit defeats the whole point, and means things are more likely to be hidden.

    Deeply troubling decision from NSW Govt.

    Shoebridge, Did the UN Torture inspectors went to China, North Korea and Russia to check their jails?

  4. Last week while searching to see if the Moe River and Latrobe River would both flood, and therefore put my locale in harm’s way, I came across numerous (and I mean very very many) warnings about the high probability of the Maribyrnong River flooding. And how the residents had been warned.

    When the flooding did occur, I came across this coot from the Ch 9’s Today Show (don’t know his name) covering the actual flooding of said river. As they panned across the damage, he and his co-host were trying to drum up consternation that the residents hadn’t been forewarned, until a chap from the SES said that they had been doorknocking all week prior to this event. The coot, though, while a bit dismissive of this information, was so relieved to see that Flemington racecourse hadn’t been inundated, because, you know, biggest event of the year coming up . . .

    But, have a look and a listen to the first 4 minutes of this segment (from today, the 17th, on Today) and see how the coot (the guy on the left) and his co-host trying to minimise the effects of the wall round Flemington racecourse to Janet Rice, Greens senator and apparently ex-councillor, having a go at the gambling industry.

    Questions over Flemington’s flood wall in wake of Maribyrnong damage https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxPZTml2W6E&ab_channel=9NewsAustralia

  5. Dog’s Brunch @ #1665 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 4:02 pm

    C@t, Cronus and UpNorth-had stuff to do this am so couldn’t stick around.
    re: Thunder runs

    1. Sorry C@t about adding the ‘tosser’ judgement but the presenter was a bit ‘aren’t I clever?’
    2. The comments on the video related the experience of one commenters father who found the Baghdad run was like a turkey shoot and the killing and damage done resulted in PTSD.
    3. Ah the Hilux…I’ve a 2012 Single Cab that pre-retirement was my farm ute (tray body) and now has an alloy canopy for camping etc. would looove an EV one but can’t quite figure out what Toyota are trying to do with EVs.

    I just watched it. He WAS a tosser! With his plummy accent, classical music in the background and bon mots. Groan! 😆

  6. Ven @ #1699 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 5:35 pm


    Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 4:19 pm
    David Shoebridge
    @DavidShoebridge
    ·
    1m
    It’s honestly shocking that the NSW Government is seeking to block UN torture inspectors from surprise visits to NSW jails.

    Telling an institution when you are coming for a surprise visit defeats the whole point, and means things are more likely to be hidden.

    Deeply troubling decision from NSW Govt.

    Shoebridge, Did the UN Torture inspectors went to China, North Korea and Russia to check their jails?

    To the areas of Ukraine where the Russians have set up torture chambers?

  7. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:43 pm

    S3 is a political deadly cancer for Labor.

    Best to take the uncomfortable treatment now and spend the next few years healing and be back to full strength by the next election.
    ____________

    S3 is a cancer, but not in the direction you mean. We’ve been given a taste of the attack to which Labor would be subject if it repeals S3, as you’d prefer.

    The attack would be cancerous and terminal, resulting in a Coalition govt at the next election – on the twin grounds of “Labor’s broken promises” and “Labor will tax you more.”

    Why do you long for a Coalition govt?

  8. The interesting thing is that Reynolds and Cash are not on trial. But given that their evidence would inevitably aim at protecting their own reputations, given what Ms Higgins had said about their “support”, this sort of stuff will only reinforce questions about their credibility in the eyes of the jury and, conversely, strengthen the veracity of Ms Higgins’s evidence.

  9. Boerwar says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 5:35 pm
    Upnorth
    That is a hoax, right?
    中华人民共和国
    No Cobber. It’s in the Oz (err via Times and BBC). I guess they currently make vaccines for the HPV virus that causes cancer so maybe MRNA against others.

    It’s Ridgey Didge and them smart cookies reckon by 2030 they could be rolled out.

    Freedum lovers of course will avoid them.

  10. Snappy Tom @ #2012 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 5:44 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:43 pm

    S3 is a political deadly cancer for Labor.

    Best to take the uncomfortable treatment now and spend the next few years healing and be back to full strength by the next election.
    ____________

    S3 is a cancer, but not in the direction you mean. We’ve been given a taste of the attack to which Labor would be subject if it repeals S3, as you’d prefer.

    The attack would be cancerous and terminal, resulting in a Coalition govt at the next election – on the twin grounds of “Labor’s broken promises” and “Labor will tax you more.”

    Why do you long for a Coalition govt?

    I think the question is why do have such little faith in Chalmers and Albo’s political skills to sell a recalibration of S3 policy …???

  11. Regarding NSW jails- I have worked in or visited most of them- not sure what the NSW Govt is afraid of.

    The older Victorian nightmare jails like Parramatta, Berrima and Grafton are being wound down or closed for much more modern facilities like Wellington, Nowra and Kempsey, that are more amenable and larger, so they can offer better facilities, particularly health. I presume it is just an ideological hatred of transparency and the UN.

  12. Snappy Tom @ #1705 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 5:44 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:43 pm

    S3 is a political deadly cancer for Labor.

    Best to take the uncomfortable treatment now and spend the next few years healing and be back to full strength by the next election.
    ____________

    S3 is a cancer, but not in the direction you mean. We’ve been given a taste of the attack to which Labor would be subject if it repeals S3, as you’d prefer.

    The attack would be cancerous and terminal, resulting in a Coalition govt at the next election – on the twin grounds of “Labor’s broken promises” and “Labor will tax you more.”

    Why do you long for a Coalition govt?

    So he can spend the next 10 years of a Labor Opposition telling them that they should ‘manage out’ female MPs, and that they should adopt Greens’ and Independent policies which will guarantee Labor will win government. But will instead keep Labor in permanent Opposition. Rinse and repeat. 😐

  13. a r @ #1710 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 5:51 pm

    Ven @ #2005 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 4:35 pm

    Shoebridge, Did the UN Torture inspectors went to China, North Korea and Russia to check their jails?

    The implication being that we get to torture our convicts because other places do the same, or worse? Yeah, nah. It’s not a race to the bottom.

    No, the implication being there are bigger fish to fry for UN Torture Inspectors. Maybe it’s a bit too dangerous for them though, so they come to Sydney instead, probably at the invitation of The Greens, it wouldn’t surprise me.

  14. Labor have changed their policy of no new money for fossil fuel projects (Middle Arm at Darwin Port), so what’s stopping them from changing position on S3 ..??

  15. Why are some posters here so arrogant as to think all voters would think just like them if only someone else had the competence to explain the obvious truth to them?

    When those posters are signal failures in convincing even their fellow bludgers.

  16. Rex Douglas @ #1708 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 5:49 pm

    Snappy Tom @ #2012 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 5:44 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 1:43 pm

    S3 is a political deadly cancer for Labor.

    Best to take the uncomfortable treatment now and spend the next few years healing and be back to full strength by the next election.
    ____________

    S3 is a cancer, but not in the direction you mean. We’ve been given a taste of the attack to which Labor would be subject if it repeals S3, as you’d prefer.

    The attack would be cancerous and terminal, resulting in a Coalition govt at the next election – on the twin grounds of “Labor’s broken promises” and “Labor will tax you more.”

    Why do you long for a Coalition govt?

    I think the question is why do have such little faith in Chalmers and Albo’s political skills to sell a recalibration of S3 policy …???

    Oh, that line again. I bet you think it’s a good one. We’ll probably hear it another 10000 times at least. 😐

  17. TPOF @ #1706 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 5:45 pm

    The interesting thing is that Reynolds and Cash are not on trial. But given that their evidence would inevitably aim at protecting their own reputations, given what Ms Higgins had said about their “support”, this sort of stuff will only reinforce questions about their credibility in the eyes of the jury and, conversely, strengthen the veracity of Ms Higgins’s evidence.

    You’ve got to wonder what’s going on in the WA Liberal Party when these 2 are the best they can offer to sit in the Senate?


  18. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 5:43 pm
    Ven @ #1699 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 5:35 pm


    Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 4:19 pm
    David Shoebridge
    @DavidShoebridge
    ·
    1m
    It’s honestly shocking that the NSW Government is seeking to block UN torture inspectors from surprise visits to NSW jails.

    Telling an institution when you are coming for a surprise visit defeats the whole point, and means things are more likely to be hidden.

    Deeply troubling decision from NSW Govt.

    Shoebridge, Did the UN Torture inspectors went to China, North Korea and Russia to check their jails?

    To the areas of Ukraine where the Russians have set up torture chambers?

    Or Saudi jails?

    I wonder why UN Torture inspectors only Democratic countries’ jails.

  19. Granny Anny says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 5:00 pm

    Some time ago there was a post or two about whether Dutton would give the Victorian Libs a hand.

    He won’t.

    If the polls are right, the Libs will get flogged. If Dutton turns up the flogging will be bigger and commentary will be that it was all his fault.
    ____________

    I’d love it if Dutton turned up lots and Vic produced a WA result!

  20. No 1 story on Channel 9 News: Linda Reynolds seeking out the transcript of the Lehrmannn Trial(not allowed). It appears the Prosecution have Reynold’s text messages to the Defence team as well, offering them tips. Big no no.

  21. TPOF

    “The interesting thing is that Reynolds and Cash are not on trial. But given that their evidence would inevitably aim at protecting their own reputations, given what Ms Higgins had said about their “support”, this sort of stuff will only reinforce questions about their credibility in the eyes of the jury and, conversely, strengthen the veracity of Ms Higgins’s evidence.”

    Exactly. Why would they lie about it if they thought the allegations were nonsense?
    Especially if only a cover up would be “political suicide”.

    Cash thought knowing of an alleged rape in a Ministerial office wouldn’t even be embarrassing! So again, why lie?

  22. Socrates @ #1722 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 6:04 pm

    TPOF

    “The interesting thing is that Reynolds and Cash are not on trial. But given that their evidence would inevitably aim at protecting their own reputations, given what Ms Higgins had said about their “support”, this sort of stuff will only reinforce questions about their credibility in the eyes of the jury and, conversely, strengthen the veracity of Ms Higgins’s evidence.”

    Exactly. Why would they lie about it if they thought the allegations were nonsense?
    Especially if only a cover up would be “political suicide”.

    Cash thought knowing of an alleged rape in a Ministerial office wouldn’t even be embarrassing! So again, why lie?

    If they are found to have misled the court wouldn’t that make their positions in parliament untenable?

  23. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 5:51 pm

    Why do you long for a Coalition govt?

    So he can spend the next 10 years of a Labor Opposition telling them that they should ‘manage out’ female MPs, and that they should adopt Greens’ and Independent policies which will guarantee Labor will win government
    ____________
    Instead of constantly trying to police the opinions on here. Why don’t you harass Sally McManus. Who is a part of your movement and should surely be brought into line by the self appointed online commissars.

    Sally McManus
    @sallymcmanus
    The Stage 3 tax cuts are both unfair and completely unaffordable.
    They were a bad idea at the time and a terrible one now

  24. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:01 pm

    When you’re dealing with a politically cancerous policy, such as S3, it’s best to treat it early.
    ____________

    Evidence-free.

  25. Snappy Tom says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:09 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:01 pm

    When you’re dealing with a politically cancerous policy, such as S3, it’s best to treat it early.
    ____________

    Evidence-free.
    _________
    You believe in Heaven. I mean come on.

  26. Professor Ugur Sahin and Professor Ozlem Tureci

    – November 2020: on developing a vaccine against covid, using techniques being developed to find an anti-cancer vaccine
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54886883
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/10/ugur-sahin-and-ozlem-tureci-german-dream-team-behind-vaccine

    – October 2022: on using what was learned fighting covid to further the development of anti-cancer vaccines
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-63247997

    The mRNA technology being used works by sending an instruction or blueprint to cells to produce an antigen or protein. In Covid this antigen is part of the spike protein of the virus. In cancer it would be a marker on the surface of tumour cells.

    (Upnorth, thanks for reminding us of the two professors.)

  27. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:14 pm

    Of course, the minute Chalmers announces changes to S3 next year, he will be lauded by the PB commentariat.
    ______________
    He and Albo will be compared to:

    Labour would reverse the government’s cut to the top rate of income tax, leader Sir Keir Starmer has said.

    He told the BBC the move was “the wrong choice” during a cost-of-living crisis.

  28. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:14 pm

    Of course, the minute Chalmers announces changes to S3 next year, he will be lauded by the PB commentariat.
    __________
    Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia

  29. Boerwar says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:00 pm
    upnorth
    I am pretty sure it is a hoax. My cooker mates tell me they have done research on it.
    中华人民共和国
    Ohhhhhh. You got them too! Some of the Upnorth extended clan have done similar research. They have a Degree from the University of Facebook.

    Sorry I didn’t get your original humour cobber! Cookers and Kookbabblers seem to be everywhere.

  30. nath says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:16 pm
    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:14 pm

    Of course, the minute Chalmers announces changes to S3 next year, he will be lauded by the PB commentariat.
    ______________
    He and Albo will be compared to:

    Labour would reverse the government’s cut to the top rate of income tax, leader Sir Keir Starmer has said.

    He told the BBC the move was “the wrong choice” during a cost-of-living crisis.
    中华人民共和国
    Yes

  31. nath, have you thought about doing Comedy Stand Up with Rex Douglas? That latest line you fed him about the statement by Keir Starmer was hilarious! As if the situation in the UK has any relevance to Australia’s? And the old Eurasia and Oceania line, a bit tired don’t you think?

    Fyi, I’ll be sticking to my original position. If the government conduct a conversation with the Australian people about tax, put it to them in an election and get a mandate for it, I will support it.

  32. I would hope that we could aim to have a slightly better human rights records than brutal authoritarian dictatorships like China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.

  33. Dr Johnsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 4:18 pm
    What is Taylormade’s opinion of Liberal candidate for Mulgrave, Michael Piastrino?
    _____________________
    Friday afternoon I caught the local bus service that calls into Coolangatta airport on its route around the southern Gold Coast.
    A guy across the aisle saw the suitcases and asked where I was from. I said Geelong Victoria.
    Next second another Queenslander from a few seats up yelled out at the top of his voice.
    “When will Daniel Andrews be charged with genocide”
    True story and it was bloody funny.

  34. Taylormade @ #2047 Monday, October 17th, 2022 – 6:37 pm

    Dr Johnsays:
    Monday, October 17, 2022 at 4:18 pm
    What is Taylormade’s opinion of Liberal candidate for Mulgrave, Michael Piastrino?
    _____________________
    Friday afternoon I caught the local bus service that calls into Coolangatta airport on its route around the southern Gold Coast.
    A guy across the aisle saw the suitcases and asked where I was from. I said Geelong Victoria.
    Next second another Queenslander from a few seats up yelled out at the top of his voice.
    “When will Daniel Andrews be charged with genocide”
    True story and it was bloody funny.

    Sounds like you were ensconced with a right wing loony tune. Birds of a feather.

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