Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 28, Greens 12 in Victoria

More evidence to suggest Daniel Andrews’ government is set to match or even exceed its 2018 landslide.

After two monthly federal polls, the Age/Herald Resolve Strategic series has followed its pre-federal election practice of combining two polling samples to produce a state voting intention result for Victoria, which hopefully indicates a return to regular monthly federal and bi-monthly New South Wales and Victorian state polling. Consistent with the recent Newspoll, these numbers suggest another emphatic win for Daniel Andrews’ Labor government, which is up five points since the last such poll back in April to 42% and down only one point on its 2018 result. The Coalition has slumped five points since the last poll to 28%, down seven on the election result, while the Greens are up two to 12%, up more than a point on 2018. Of the remainder, 12% opted for an unspecificied independent and 8% went for minor parties.

Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, but the primary vote numbers suggest a Labor lead of as much as 60-40, compared with 57.3-42.7 in the 2018 landslide. Approval and disapproval are not featured, but Daniel Andrews holds a 46-28 lead over Matthew Guy as preferred premier, out from 48-31. The poll was conducted, I presume, both last week and around a month previously from a total sample of 1107.

In other Victorian poll news, The Guardian reported last week on a RedBridge Group poll of the Mornington electorate for Climate 200, which is supporting independent candidate Kate Lardner. The seat will be left vacated after Liberal incumbent David Morris lost preselection to Chris Crewther, former federal member for Dunkley. The headline voting intention result suggested a win for Crewther with 43.2% of the primary vote, with Labor on 28.9% for Labor, 11.4% for a generic independent and 5.9% for the Greens, which much or all of the remainder uncommitted.

When it was put to respondents that the field would include an “independent candidate like Monique Ryan”, 20.3% said they would support that candidate compared with 39.3% for the Liberals, 19.2% for Labor and 6.5% for the Greens, which pollster Kos Samaras projects to a 53-47 win for the independent. The poll was conducted from a sample of 797 shortly after Lardner’s campaign was announced in August.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

64 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 28, Greens 12 in Victoria”

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  1. “The health care system is a disgrace” argument is an interesting one. None other than the NSW LNP premier was very impressed with the Victorian situation, just a few short weeks ago.

    Things can always be improved, of course. The LNP in Victoria are not concerned about the health system per se, they are just looking for political leverage. I suspect the voters can see through it, well 60% or so of them, anyway.

    Elections make Interesting bed fellows. Sometimes reality is not how political operatives want to paint it.

  2. 2pp between the winner and the second relevant party….. 2cp, if you prefer. But we are splitting hairs. Meanwhile, Jeremy, you are just trolling!

    The teal thing is liberal voters not being able to vote for their own candidates.

    The alp will lose seats to the greens, the libs will lose them to teals. It still doesn’t get you minority government on current polling. Things could change, but they haven’t yet.

  3. LOL! They are useless.

    Quote from the Libs in the article:

    “The $8 billion was 25 per cent of what the government was saying at the time the Cheltenham to Box Hill line would cost,” he told The Age. “Until we made our announcement [about shelving the first stage of the project], Labor never said anything about other sources of funding. So they need to come clean with the people of Victoria about how their funding model works.”

    That’s complete rubbish because on the actual day of the Liberals’ announcement, even before Labor responded to it, every news outlet made it crystal clear that only $11b of the $34.5b was being funded by the state, the majority was private investment and value capture, and some articles even went further to detail that only about $3b of that $11b is over the next 4 years when the Liberals plan to redirect it (the full $11b is over 13 years).

    So they can’t turn around and blame Labor now for not being upfront about the source of funding if everyone else knew in advance except them.

    Maybe they just need to pay more attention in class? Doesn’t say much about their capacity to govern if they don’t even know how to read a budget. What a bunch of clowns, promising to redirect a bunch of money in the budget that was never even there.

  4. Have not been to the Western suburbs of Melbourne for some number of years – but went with children and grand-children to Sovereign Hill last week.

    The place in not recognizable.

    The Ring Road systems (plural because you go from one to another) are what they are then you bypass the Sunshine Hospital, an enormous complex with one very significant building carrying the name of Joan Kirner.

    The media promoted narrative that the ALP has forgotten the Western suburbs could not be further from the fact from what I observed from the passenger seat.

    The suburbs of Caroline Springs et al, which abut the Ring Road are what they are, as are the shopping complexes.

  5. Here we go again. Melton the new Toorak is it? Times a do change l suppose. Just like the two party system. Still calling minority Labor. Melton into 3.0 from 21 with TAB. Hopefully some on here took my tip. Morwell into 2.75 for Coalition from 6.50. Easy $$$ to be made if you’re not a rusted on supporter of Labor or Liberal.

  6. @Jeremy, I don’t! Betting/gambling on politics (or indeed, anything else) is just plain stupid. But I really would like to see your betting slip on the hung parliament you keep going on about – Bet your house and your life savings on it, mate! Please!

    Guy is going to go backwards. The tide is still going out.

    He is sounding more like the black knight from Monty Python, every day.

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