Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 28, Greens 12 in Victoria

More evidence to suggest Daniel Andrews’ government is set to match or even exceed its 2018 landslide.

After two monthly federal polls, the Age/Herald Resolve Strategic series has followed its pre-federal election practice of combining two polling samples to produce a state voting intention result for Victoria, which hopefully indicates a return to regular monthly federal and bi-monthly New South Wales and Victorian state polling. Consistent with the recent Newspoll, these numbers suggest another emphatic win for Daniel Andrews’ Labor government, which is up five points since the last such poll back in April to 42% and down only one point on its 2018 result. The Coalition has slumped five points since the last poll to 28%, down seven on the election result, while the Greens are up two to 12%, up more than a point on 2018. Of the remainder, 12% opted for an unspecificied independent and 8% went for minor parties.

Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, but the primary vote numbers suggest a Labor lead of as much as 60-40, compared with 57.3-42.7 in the 2018 landslide. Approval and disapproval are not featured, but Daniel Andrews holds a 46-28 lead over Matthew Guy as preferred premier, out from 48-31. The poll was conducted, I presume, both last week and around a month previously from a total sample of 1107.

In other Victorian poll news, The Guardian reported last week on a RedBridge Group poll of the Mornington electorate for Climate 200, which is supporting independent candidate Kate Lardner. The seat will be left vacated after Liberal incumbent David Morris lost preselection to Chris Crewther, former federal member for Dunkley. The headline voting intention result suggested a win for Crewther with 43.2% of the primary vote, with Labor on 28.9% for Labor, 11.4% for a generic independent and 5.9% for the Greens, which much or all of the remainder uncommitted.

When it was put to respondents that the field would include an “independent candidate like Monique Ryan”, 20.3% said they would support that candidate compared with 39.3% for the Liberals, 19.2% for Labor and 6.5% for the Greens, which pollster Kos Samaras projects to a 53-47 win for the independent. The poll was conducted from a sample of 797 shortly after Lardner’s campaign was announced in August.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

60 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 28, Greens 12 in Victoria”

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  1. It certainly appears that Victorians are continuing to be very happy with Dan Andrews and will show their satisfaction at the upcoming election. Of course, Andrews is no doubt aided by the dearth of nous and capability in the Lib opposition and more power to him for driving home the advantages he has. Vic Labor is by no means perfect but the alternative………well really, there is no alternative.

  2. “Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 28, Greens 12 in Victoria”…

    Oh my, is the Victorian Liberal party heading the way of the Western Australia Liberal party…?

  3. “Work To Rule says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 6:46 am
    The age did it very best to spin the poll:

    “voters will abandon the Liberal Party fearing a change of government in the face of a crumbling healthcare system and skyrocketing living costs””

    Ha, ha, ha…. that’s truly remarkable!… So, the argument is that everything of importance is falling apart in Victoria, but the reaction of the voters is to reward the government that has presided over the disaster, without, so the innuendo goes, doing anything of substance to prevent/ameliorate/decrease it?… But the same could have been said about the federal Coalition government which in fact lost the federal election (it was punished by the voters).

    I love how the stupid mainstream media can happily live with such blatant contradictions, perhaps because they assume that most voters are Morons?… That’s a truly wild assumption in Victoria, I am afraid….

  4. Yes, the chances for the Independent look good in Mornington, although in order to avoid any surprise, the Independent, ALP and Greens should allocate preferences strategically, so whoever comes second to the Liberals will harvest the preferences of everybody else.

  5. What’s being going on with some preselections isn’t helping the Liberal Party’s chances.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-21/cathrine-burnett-wake-valedictory-church-religion-liberal-party/101463452

    Ousted Liberal Party MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake condemns extremists in politics
    ABC Gippsland
    By Bec Symons
    Posted Wed 21 Sep 2022 at 7:10pm

    A Victorian Liberal Party politician who was ousted at pre-selection by a candidate linked to a Pentecostal church has lashed out at extremism in politics in her final speech as a parliamentarian.

    Upper House Member for Eastern Victoria Cathrine Burnett-Wake was widely expected to contest the November state election, but despite being personally endorsed by federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, was instead tossed from the ticket when City Builder’s Church member Renee Heath won pre-selection.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-01/vic-liberal-party-branch-stacking-claims-city-builders-church/101388642

    Victorian Liberal Party branch stacking claims as Pentecostal church ‘infiltrates’ branches
    ABC Gippsland
    By Bec Symons and the Regional Investigation Team’s Charlotte King and Andy Burns
    1 Sep 2022

  6. How Victorian Labor’s failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy

    https://theconversation.com/how-victorian-labors-failure-on-upper-house-electoral-reform-undermines-democracy-190136

    I had an article published for The Conversation yesterday. The Vic 2018 election was an anti-democratic shambles in the upper house as the Greens won just one seat out of 40 despite 9.3% of the upper house statewide vote, while three parties with hardly any votes won seats.

    This was due to group voting tickets, which Vic Labor has made no effort whatsoever to abolish. So Vic is the last Aus jurisdiction with GVT, and that’s going to be in place at the forthcoming election. Labor has been in govt since 2014 under Dan Andrews, and there are no excuses for this failure.

    To avoid the preference deals from GVT, I recommend people vote below the line. In Vic, you only need to number five boxes below the line for a formal vote, though you can continue to number more than five.

  7. Alpo at 7.50am

    “Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 28, Greens 12 in Victoria”…

    Oh my, is the Victorian Liberal party heading the way of the Western Australia Liberal party…?
    ____________

    One can only hope.

    I don’t believe in a one-party state, but the Coalition’s lurch to the Right over the past few decades, not just in Victoria, makes them basically useless in govt. Worse than that, enablers of corruption.

    About the only time the Coalition was a better governing option in any jurisdiction in this country was when compared with Obeid-era Labor in NSW. Not sure NSW Labor has fully shaken of the (real or perceived) Obeid stench…

  8. “Adrian Beaumontsays:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:19 am
    How Victorian Labor’s failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy”..

    Well, Adrian, I frankly wouldn’t single out the Vic government for allegedly supporting anti-democratic procedures. At the recent federal election, in my seat of Brisbane, the Greens ended up third on primary votes, and then they overcame the ALP on redistribution of preferences from minor parties, which finally led to their win over the LNP thanks to the redistribution of ALP preferences. I don’t recall any single Greens politician regarding that result as “illegitimate” or “anti-democratic”…..

  9. If these poll numbers hold up then Andrews is headed for a historic victory because Victoria hasn’t given a sitting government back to back swings since the 1970s and making that more impressive the Andrews government goes into this election with one of the biggest margins in Victorian political history.

  10. “Snappy Tom says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:28 am
    Alpo at 7.50am

    ….About the only time the Coalition was a better governing option in any jurisdiction in this country was when compared with Obeid-era Labor in NSW.”

    Yes, and I also note the total fascination of the Liberals with “Obeid”. I don’t think that anybody needs to be a genius to predict that in the lead up to the coming NSW state election in 2023, Obeid will return to the frontpage of newspapers and TV news bulletins…. The ALP must have a strategy to quickly get that out of the way, to prevent being sucked into yet another Obeid-propaganda-vortex.

  11. Adrian Beaumont @ #8 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 10:19 am

    So Vic is the last Aus jurisdiction with GVT, and that’s going to be in place at the forthcoming election. Labor has been in govt since 2014 under Dan Andrews, and there are no excuses for this failure.

    It is curious given the Govts willingness to tackle more challenging reforms (e.g. euthanasia). My guess is that the ALP would prefer to deal with a random bunch of indies in the upper house rather than a block of greens.

  12. I’ve never seen The Age so blatantly campaign against a Labor government as they have against Andrews in the last term.

    They know the Libs have no chance but are campaigning hard for a minority government by pushing the teal and independent narrative.

  13. If you look at The Age’s landing page right now, the top story is about a Liberal scandal but the photo used is their typical, unflattering angry Dan Andrews photo.

  14. Alpo Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:58 am

    The diffrence is the voters chose the preferences not the party.

    Snappy Toms Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:28 am

    I would argue the first few days of Newman in Qld(as bad as he turned out) was also better then how the ALP was at the time.

  15. @Trent bizarre isn’t it, but totally unexpected. Definitely there is an agenda going on at Costello Media Vic. The state political reporters at The Age seem to really have it in for Andrews for whatever reason. I am from Sydney and watching from afar but it is so brazen.

  16. The Age has typically leaned a little more consistently left/Labor than the SMH in the past (although I have always found both to be quite fair and balanced), but there’s been a noticeable shift to the right since the Nine takeover.

    It’s definitely much more pronounced in state politics and against Andrews though.

  17. Trent says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:09 pm
    If you look at The Age’s landing page right now, the top story is about a Liberal scandal but the photo used is their typical, unflattering angry Dan Andrews photo.

    This is the Age headline:
    “Victorian Liberals face second donations probe for ‘Ditch Dan’ campaign
    The opposition faces another probe over fundraising activities that followed a campaign blitz last month which raised more than $500,000 for its state election campaign.”

    However the unflattering photo of Dan has now changed to this:

  18. Alpo says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:58 am
    “At the recent federal election, in my seat of Brisbane, the Greens ended up third on primary votes, and then they overcame the ALP on redistribution of preferences from minor parties, which finally led to their win over the LNP thanks to the redistribution of ALP preferences. I don’t recall any single Greens politician regarding that result as “illegitimate” or “anti-democratic”…..”

    Why would anyone regard the Brisbane result as “illegitimate” or “anti-democratic”? Are you suggesting that winning from third place is illegitimate? Are you suggesting that we just throw away the preferences of minor party voters?

  19. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/23/resolve-strategic-labor-42-coalition-28-greens-12-in-victoria/#comment-3982643

    In the Commonwealth election in Brisbane the preferences were allocated by the voters who were easily able to see what they were doing; under Victorian Legislative Council GTV the groups allocate the vast majority of preferences in ways the voters would not do themselves through a system that is not transparent where the preferences are going without effort.

  20. Alpo: that is simply not a valid comparison. Brisbane was decided entirely by voters placing numbers in boxes to allocate their own preferences. Labor and the Greens had almost exactly the same primary vote and the voters for minor parties preferred the Greens to Labor, as a result of which the Greens moved into second and then won the seat on Labor preferences. That’s a legitimate means of determining a seat by voter choice. It’s not the only one, true, and there are some other systems in which Labor would have won the seat based on the same set of voter preferences, but it’s the system of preferential voting that we have.

    In contrast Group Ticket Voting is undemocratic in the age of preference harvesting. Voters are not only in general uninformed about where their preferences are going (and hence not making a deliberate choice to allocate them in that manner) but in many cases could not know what effect voting 1 for a party would have, because the preference orderings are so convoluted. Group ticket voting also creates a structural disadvantage for minor parties that poll too well because there is no point in other parties doing deals with them since they will not be excluded.

    Furthermore, because the main thing that determines whether a crossbencher gets re-elected or not is the nature of preference tickets and the vote shares for various random parties in their region, members elected by Group Ticket Voting are not accountable to the people who elected them. A great example is the Shooter who more than doubled his vote and polled nearly 8% – and deserved to win – but lost to other parties involved in GTV preference spirals.

    It saddens me to see people try to muddy the waters in defence of an indefensible system, and in the process casting groundless aspersions on legitimate results.

    One thing I would add is that the Liberals also deserve some blame for GTV continuing (as do the micros including Patten – who is often wrongly portrayed as anti-GTV; she is only anti-Glenn-Druery-getting-money-out-of-GTV). The Liberals initially supported axing it in their Electoral Matters sub but have made zero effort to introduce legislation to get rid of it, and the last time the Greens moved a motion on the matter David Davis talked some absolute nonsense in which he said that he would have amended their motion to only call for Group Ticket Voting to be reformed not removed.

    Davis said “what we think is important—that group voting tickets
    or whatever arrangement you have electorally actually direct the voting outcomes in a way that most
    closely reflects what the community and the people want”

    Group ticket voting cannot do that in an era with high minor party voting and anyone who doesn’t know that should certainly not be embarrassing themselves in parliament on this subject.

  21. Adrian Beaumontsays:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:19 am
    This was due to group voting tickets, which Vic Labor has made no effort whatsoever to abolish. So Vic is the last Aus jurisdiction with GVT, and that’s going to be in place at the forthcoming election. Labor has been in govt since 2014 under Dan Andrews, and there are no excuses for this failure.
    _____________________
    No excuses at all. It’s all down to Andrews.

  22. Several elections ago I put a one in the box for the ALP in Victoria. I did so because the election was too close and I wanted the ALP to get over the line. My preference helped elect an anti-choice religious RWNJ. I have painstakingly numbered every box ever since (and put the ALP behind the Greens to teach them a lesson.

    Alpo, with respect, preferential voting is a terrific concept in which the 3rd and 4th candidate sometimes win. The upper house system still used in Victoria is something completely different.

  23. The reason for this is relatively simple.

    Labor’s vote has dipped a little, but where it dips it tends to go to the Greens, which flows back to Labor on a TPP basis.

    The Liberals, on the other hand, have been taken over by happy-clappy fundies, anti-vaxxers, and all sorts of ultraconservatives and, having lost the battle within the party, the moderates have simply moved to the Teals – notice the 12% independent polling.

    The Liberals have lost the liberal vote and, whatever their misgivings about Labor, they feel that Labor is actually more moderate than the Liberals.

    The Liberals in Victoria simply cannot be trusted, and certainly not even by their own traditional liberal base.

    Who was the last Liberal to win a Victorian state election? Ted Baillieu. What did his own party call him? “Red Ted”.

    That’s where the Liberal Party is now.

  24. TAB has 20 seats available for individual seat betting. My recommendations are Independent to win Melton at 21 and Coalition to win Morwell at 6.0. Plus get on minority Labor at 6.50. Independent to win Benambra at 5.0 also nice.

  25. Jeremy

    You should learn how to count

    Then you will be able to change hands at 99

    The Liberal Party primary vote in Victoria is under 30% – by both published polling informing 28% and internal polling informing at under 30%

    And it appears NSW is going the same way

    Following on landslide wins in Victoria, SA, WA, the NT and the ACT plus a comfortable win in Queensland

    Which leaves Tasmania

    The reasons are well documented – Pentecostals and the IPA

  26. Here we go again, this being the first state or territory election since Albo took office. Budget late October and I’ll let you know that dictator Dan ain’t that popular. He very lucky lobster is his opponent. Both Labor and Liberal on the nose thus Greens and independents might have a field day. Red shirts, duck shooting, native logging, renaming a hospital from an indigenous name to that of their colonisation past, suburban railway with every worthwhile organisation declaring a dud. I could go on but l always thought this was a discussion, not the socialist left of Labor party personal blog. I’m still calling a hung parliament on the opinion of a circa 5% swing against Labor and Independents and Greens having a field day. I could quite conceivable be wrong. But here we go again, l could be right. Don’t count chickens till they hatched.

  27. The problem of Vic Libs is that they are viewed too right wing for being anti vax by moderate voters but too progressive for climate change and their handling of Bernie Finn by the ultra conservatives voters

  28. The more people bang on about the possibility of a hung parliament the less likely it is to happen: wavering voters will run straight into Labor’s arms to make sure it doesn’t happen. Happened in 2018 too.

  29. I was up in the Shepparton area over the weekend and I think the local female independent (Suzanna Sheed) might actually be under threat. The new Super school system is not particularly popular with a section of parents and some of the other promised benefits have failed to be delivered.
    The Nationals and Liberals are both running female candidates and have a lot of signs up (at least from my view on the GV hwy). This might be an example of where a once popular independent (Not quite a teal but more like Helen Haine) might in trouble.
    The one thing that might save her is an extremely bad performance by the LNP as a whole.

  30. Suzanna Sheed will be fine. That seat will never go Labor and the punters know there is no point voting LNP.
    The AlP has to work out why there is a cohort of about 25% who will never vote for them no matter how bad the alternative is. It is about 40% in that electorate.

  31. I am not too sure about your confidence that Sheed is safe. She only has a 5% margin and she is a bit on the nose. She has lost the support of some the local rags (which still have a bit of influence in the bush) and this whole school issue has upset a lot parents.
    But what might save her is the mess that the LNP is in the city.

  32. Logically if parents in Shepparton are upset with Labor over a school issue, but the Liberals appear to have 0.001% chance of winning in November so a minority Labor government would be far more likely than a Liberal government, then that’s all the more reason they’d be better represented by an independent who could shape decisions from the crossbench, than a Coalition MP who would have zero influence from opposition.

  33. ‘I’m still calling a hung parliament on the opinion of a circa 5% swing against Labor and Independents and Greens having a field day. I could quite conceivable be wrong. But here we go again, l could be right. Don’t count chickens till they hatched.’

    I agree to an extent. There should be some swing against the government. The level of contention this term, and dislike for Dan Andrews, has to have some impact. However, if you give any credence to the poling it’s hard to see Labor losing its majority. But I’m looking forward to the result, if Labor does get back with no swing at all, it’s time for me to shut up forever about elections.

  34. Sheed seems to be linked to the super school as a supporter and someone the government seems to want re-elected. Sheed also has had at previous elections her support more in the Shepparton area where the super school is, so irate parents who had previously voted for her switching back to the Coalition could be a serious electoral issue for her. Shepparton will be one to watch on election night.

  35. Shepparton And Indi have learned the lesson of the value of an independent. Electing an LNP opposition backbencher is a complete waste of time. Sheed is safe. So is Dan. 60/40 does not a minority make, no matter how hard the MSM wish.

  36. Everyone is on the anti-Vic case at the moment. A good example is this breathless piece in the Murdoch media.
    “State droves of Aussies are fleeing from – and where they’re going to”
    https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/thousands-of-aussies-leave-nsw-and-victoria-for-queensland/news-story/02383f35eb63a9598e18c026b3467529

    Let’s play down what’s happening in NSW, but hype up Victoria.

    Example 1:
    Thousands of Aussies are continuing to abandon Victoria and NSW for other states, new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows.

    A whopping 40,057 NSW residents and 17,997 Victorians left to live elsewhere in Australia.

    Example 2:
    Victorians have been leaving the state in droves ever since the state was hit with harsh Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020.

    Meanwhile, NSW has consistently lost residents to other states since 1981.

  37. MAWBM, polls are only a snapshot of current voting intentions. With a large proportion of Victorian electors probably not even knowing an election is on the fourth Saturday of November 2022, or unsure whose fault rising interest rates and cost of living pressures are. Look at the last SA election. Two months out and the polls and Liberals were expecting an easy return to Government. Didn’t end so well for them did it. Health played the major role in their downfall. Now have a look at Victoria’s health system. MAWBM, am sure most on this site understands poll numbers, it’s about where those poll numbers are heading on election day. It’s also in my opinion the trend in polling numbers to independents and Greens. Methinks Labor will poll in mid to high 30’s, Liberal in the low 30’s. Where is the other 30% plus going, even if they prefer Labor over Liberal they could elect Green or Independent before Labor gets em back via preferences. I’m still calling a minority Labor government. 2PP to a large extent means nothing.

  38. With regard to dislike of Daniel Andrews, my tiny bit of anecdotal evidence is that there are plenty of people who hate his guts, but they’re all rusted-on Liberals. On the other side of the ledger, all the rusted-on Labor voters think he’s godlike.

    And the swinging voters? The indifference is deafening.

  39. Yep – there’s always a good 40% of people who dislike the current leader. Typically these are the people who will vote for the opposition. In this case, that 40% happen to really, really dislike him, but that doesn’t magically make their vote worth extra.

    The mistake lib-rusted ons like Jeremy keep making is assuming that the extra strong dislike them and their circles have of Andrews must be reflective of the wider community, even when all the polls and actual evidence suggest that isn’t the case. It was no different in the commentary in Vic leading up to the Federal election.

  40. I can remember the 1999 Victorian election, and the demise of the even more polarising figure of Jeff Kennett. My memory (and again, this is just anecdotal evidence) is that absolutely everyone either wanted him to die horribly or thought he was the messiah. There was virtually no middle ground.

    This is the contrast with Andrews, where there’s a large chunk who don’t really have an opinion one way or the other.

  41. There is a very vocal anti Andrews contingent here in Victoria and in the main they are all right wing nut jobs, who would never have voted Labor anyway.

  42. The Vic polling has been at 60/40 since the last election, which was 57/43. It has not moved, so I guess we’ll just get the same “minority” government we got last time…. (s)!

    Matthew Guy is vote repellant – Bracks was quite the opposite.

    It stuns me that rusted on libs in Victoria just can’t admit their party has been highjacked and they need to start again. The Teals have started the rebuild for them.

  43. “2pp to a large extent means nothing”

    We have mandatory and preferential voting – in single member electorates. 2PP is the only thing that matters in the lower house – where government is formed.

    Of course the polls are a snapshot in time. That is the very definition of an opinion poll.

    Of course anything could happen between now and the election – but given the polls have not shifted in 4 years I’m not seeing any evidence, yet, that suggests a minority government. That could change, but so far the tectonic plates are soldiering on.

    Sheed is a safe as houses. So too is Dan. Wish all you like but there is no evidence of a swing.

    The anti-Dan echo chambers still have the same members. They are loud. They are, in many cases extreme, but they are in the minority.

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