The Australian has today published a Newspoll result of state voting intention in Victoria, which I have added as an introductory note to my earlier post covering general electoral developments in the state. I am not sure what the deal is with Newspoll’s federal polling – plainly it has not returned to its earlier schedule of a poll every three weeks, as there would otherwise have been one on Monday.
We do have two new attitudinal polls from the Australia Institute, one posing an array of stimulating questions on the potential for conflict with China. This encompassed both an Australian sample of 1003 and a Taiwanese sample of 1002, the survey work being conducted by international market research firm Dynata.
Among many other things, the Australian end of the survey found 47% expecting a Chinese armed attack on Australia either soon (9%) or “sometime” (38%), with only 19% opting for never and 33% uncommitted. Twenty-one per cent felt Australia would be able to defend itself from China without international assistance, compared with 60% who thought otherwise, and 57% anticipate such support would be forthcoming from the United States compared with 11% who didn’t and 19% who opted for “it depends”. Thirty-five per cent would back the US and Australia to win such a conflict compared with 8% for lose and 26% for a draw of some description.
Thirty-seven per cent felt the Australian people would be prepared to go to war if China threatened military action against Australia, effectively equal to the 38% who thought otherwise. Twenty-six per cent were prepared for Australia to go to war to help Taiwan gain independence compared with 33% who weren’t and 41% for uncommitted. Framed a little differently, 14% strongly agreed and 23% less strongly agreed that Australia should “send its defence forces to Taiwan to fight for their freedom … if China incorporated Taiwan”, compared with 20% for disagree and 9% for strongly disagree.
The Taiwanese end of the survey is beyond this site’s scope, thought it’s interesting to note that 41% felt optimistic with respect to the future for Taiwan compared with 40% for neutral and only 20% for pessimistic. The survey was conducted between August 13 and 16 – Nancy Pelosi’s visit was on August 2 and China’s military exercises followed from August 4 to 7.
A second report from the Australia Institute provides results of a poll conducted back in April on the seemingly less pressing subject of “wokeness”, a concept that meant nothing to 43% of those surveyed, ranging from only 22% of those aged 18 to 29 to 59% of those aged 60 and over. Forty-nine per cent of the former cohort owned up to being woke, decreasing with arithmetic precision to 9% for the latter, while around 30% for each of the five age cohorts identified as “not woke”. Interestingly, Coalition and Labor voters produced similar results, with Greens and One Nation voters deviating in the manner you would expect. The poll was conducted from April 5 to 8 from a sample of 1003, so the sub-sample sizes for the results cited above are not great, however intuitively likely the results might be.
Also:
• Anthony Galloway of the Sun-Herald identifies possible successors to Scott Morrison in Cook: Mark Speakman, moderate-aligned state Attorney-General and member for Cronulla; Melanie Gibbons, state member for Holsworthy, who unsuccessfully sought preselection for the Hughes at the federal election; Carmelo Pesce, the mayor of Sutherland Shire; and Alex Cooke, identified only as a “party member”.
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has called for submissions to its inquiry into the 2022 federal election. Matters specifically touched up on by the terms of reference include political donation and truth-in-advertising laws, enfranchisement of New Zealand citizens living in Australia and “proportional representation of the states and territories in the parliament”, the latter seemingly referring to the possibility of adding extra seats for the territories in the Senate.
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a “quick guide” on the technicalities of when the next federal election might be held, together with a handy calendar showing when state and local elections are due through to 2006.
• No fewer than twelve candidates have nominated for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election on September 17, with Labor not among them, for a seat with only 11,189 voters. As well as the Nationals and the Liberals, there are two candidates of the Western Australia Party, one being hardy perennial Anthony Fels, plus the Greens, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats, No Mandatory Vaccination, the Small Business Party and two independents. My guide to the by-election can be found here.
BK:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 3:29 pm
[‘Mavis
Did you watch much of the judgement?’]
No, I didn’t. And I only know the bare facts of the case, but I would’ve still elected for a jury trial on a charge of murder, particularly due to it occurring 40 years ago, and where the evidence against Dawson, as I now understand it, was circumstantial.
‘Victoria says:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 3:37 pm
Itzadream
Well according to boerwar there has been a shift. Not sure in which direction. Lol!’
—————————————
I suspect that there are two areas. The first is in relation to sex between adults and younger people, broadly defined – not as easy as previously. The second is probably some sort of response to #metoo and women in particular having a greater power to say ‘no’. I am guessing a bit here. Going off the vibe, as it were.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/27/hawks-and-doves-open-thread/comment-page-27/#comment-3972888
Section 80 of the Constitution only applies to “offence against any law of the Commonwealth” and murder is a state offence, so section 80 is irrelevant.
Historyintime @ #1347 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 3:33 pm
They haven’t said they won’t do anything. But they are claiming the budget limits what they can do. Which we all know is tosh. What happens to the budget next year that Labor can’t afford to lift JobSeeker, but they somehow can afford to give themselves and their CEO mates an extra 10k per annum each?
I see Labor’s next budget papers. They will be subtitled “Magic Happens”
Historyintime @ #1348 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 3:33 pm
Albanese said he wouldn’t leave anyone behind.
He broke this promise.
Ukraine testing the theory that, all things being equal, defence has the upper hand. In other words will Ukraine swap relatively higher casualty rates than Russia for territory?
I see that the Haines, Pocock and the Greens are on a unity ticket re the FICAC bill. I’m onboard that ticket as well. Dreyfus can’t dish up a half-baked FICAC bill.
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 3:42 pm
I’m constantly amazed at your ability to make make such absolute assessments from virtually zero evidence.
laughtong @ #1313 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 2:01 pm
6-3
6-4
7-6
An incidental global benefit to China hosting the Biodiversity Convention COP (conference of parties) is that they seem to have become somewhat sensitized to the massive loss of biodiversity resulting from various policies introduced by the Chicommies over the past 70 years. Getting a handle on the scope of the problem is always a good start. I vividly recall wandering through a pet fish shop in Hong Kong. There were whole reefs’ worth of rare coral-based fish swimming around. The prices were staggering.
Those with a sense of how things are connected would notice that we share a common problem (mosquito fish) and that China has donated Snake Heads to the USA in exchange for the Alligator Gars.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1274157.shtml
For a decade the Coalition/Greens wedge ensured that Labor could not establish a FICAC.
Albanese promised a FICAC. The Teals and the Greens have followed Albanese’s lead with their noisemakers in full stuntarama.
Regardless of any noise, Australia will get a FICAC.
Thanks be to doG the Albanese and the Adults are running the show.
Haines is just one member out of 151 members and she is ranting like she is running a majority government.
Absurd. Pathetic. Bombastic.
If she is serious about running a government rather than a stunt show she should get herself 75 friends in the House.
Failing that, she should stop roaring like a mouse.
32% Labor knows it’s in their interests to work with the crossbench.
32% Labor will not listen to their partisan supporters who are essentially calling for crossbenchers to STFU.
Boerwar
“It must be time to retreat to eco resorts and to repel climate losers.”
Water off a duck’s back for P1.
No doubt she brings the same charm and eclectic knowledge to her role in her interactions with the paying guests. One can only imagine how mine host’s amusing ripostes and empathy must have aided the business over these difficult times.
Busy, but still with enough free time for thoughtful contributions to this site.
Labor sure a frack isnt going to listen to the likes of you, Rex.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1366 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 4:08 pm
As long as they listen to Haines & Co.
I doubt it, but Putin’s meat grinder tactics though will have to end eventually.
Victoria @ #1349 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 3:37 pm
Oh, I must pay more attention, or maybe less.
Poliphili @ #1364 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 4:06 pm
I reckon that if you and Boerwar stood one on each side of the Lidell steam turbines, we would never need to mine any more thermal coal.
Nicko
I have considerable levels of doubt about how this ‘offensive’ will play out. I assume that we are not talking about a tactical nibble here or a tactical nibble here. It seems to be being sold as a strategic offensive.
Anyhoo. I am extremely glad that I am nowhere near the fighting.
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 4:09 pm
Considering Labor has been consulting with the cross benches, it’s hard to see you have a point.
But that’s hardly unusual.
Of course we should only retreat to proper eco resorts: self-sufficient ones that grow all their own food, mine, smelt and manufacture all their own metals, medicines and other material good, make their own clothes generate all their energy from renewables. In other words the only real eco resorts are peasant economies that require huge amounts of hard work and occasional famine and starvation to ‘work’.
Other than that ‘eco resorts’ are Trumpie fakies: bullshit factories.
Haines was being consulted by the Adult Government.
But the thing is this. Haines was insisting that SHE is doing the consulting.
Talk about arse about.
I DO hope that Labor has been consulting Rex, nath and P1!
“ I DO hope that Labor has been consulting Rex, nath and P1!”
Ha! You’re a Liberal plant! Busted!
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 4:21 pm
No, it’s a legitimate sorting method to quickly eliminate dud options.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/27/hawks-and-doves-open-thread/comment-page-27/#comment-3972878
Fortunately the 538 Lite forecast has the Democrats getting, on average, 52 in the Senate and both 53 and 54 individually more likely than 52. So they have a decent chance of getting some legislation, such as voting rights, through if they keep the House of Reps. However, if the Democrats were to get ~58-62 Senators there might be less appetite for filibuster exemptions and more might be hostage to Manchin, Sinema, Murkowski and Collins.
frednk @3:35, do you know the number if you subtract reinfections?
Boerwar @ #1372 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 4:17 pm
I believe panadol is good for reducing fever, Boer. I think you will need about 150 tablets.
The interesting thing is that greenwashing marketing actually ‘works’ – for everything except the environment.
People who holiday at ‘eco resorts’ genuinely think they are somehow as one with the environment. These sustainability self-delusions are carefully fostered by the sellers.
Boerwar @ #1380 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 4:31 pm
We try not to disappoint our guests. But in your case we would be prepared to make an exception.
A classic example of how to greenwash an eco resort is to put one hundreds, or even thousands, of kms from where the clients live and then to allow them to arrive in any old sort of ICE vehicle. Presumably the clients are expected to plant trees as they drive along the road – as a sort of carbon offset.
The BoerRetreat offers complimentary musket on arrival with live wombat targets for lots of family fun.
Boerwar @ #1382 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 4:39 pm
Or you could come in your EV, which I am sure you own.
‘An oversight committee that “can’t be stacked”, ie will have independent or crossbench members;’
How can you guarantee this? Historically, numbers of crossbenchers have been low. If – say, ten years from now – their numbers drop, there may be not enough of them to be on the committee.
Secondly, having a seat on a committee does not mean that you have enough numbers to overcome stacking. A favorite move I’ve encountered (in various community groups) is to have some tokens on whose numbers are outweighed by the others (so, for example, a board of five might have two indies on it, but they will be pretty meaningless if the other three vote in unison).
‘Independent oversight of the body’s funding, as a “longevity safety measure”’
Again, nice idea but difficult to implement. Unless there is a discreet funding stream e.g. a levy, then the body’s funding will be subject to the same vagaries as anything else funded from general revenue.
Any legislation passed by the present Parliament can be overturned by future Parliaments.
‘Whistleblower protections’
Of course, but see above.
‘Broaden the definition of “corruption” to allow investigation of the actions of third parties other than ones the government has contracted with..’
So an ICAC which looks at corruption outside of government? Which is something entirely different and far wider reaching than anything that’s been proposed up until now.
Maybe Plibersek should consult with Bludgers about setting up a national eco resort-led environmental protection and conservation program?
First, make a road through the forest.
Second, build bridges along the road.
Third, chop down some trees to make a space.
Fourth, get some earth movers in to create flat spaces, water infrastructure and sewage infrastructure.
Fifth, import all household items from China (provided they were NOT manufactured using Australian coal and gas – one cannot be too careful).
Sixth, import food for hundreds or thousands of food miles.
Seventh, plant your vines for your wine provender.
Eighth, control burn the local forest to reduce fuel loads.
It goes on and on and on.
zoomster
There are some quaint notions floating around.
The first is that FICAC will somehow be unaccountable to the taxpayer for taxpayer funds. This can only be done through parliamentary budgetting and parliamentary oversight. The Exbies have an absurd notion that we can trust THEM because they trust themselves.
The second absurdity is that one cross bencher is worth 78 Labor MPs. The authoritarian tendency among parliament’s losers is strong indeed.
I AM interested in grey corruption. The Greens want to extend this to just about every breath, word or action. Would it include making a promise to halt extinctions by 2030?
IMO, That is intellectually and morally bankrupt and clearly corrupt.
Boerwar @ #1386 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 4:45 pm
A Boerwar listicle! I knew we’d make it sometime! Yay!
Sadly, since we are a true eco retreat, only one of your list entries applies. I’ll leave it to you to guess which one.
So…. what would Civil War No 2 look like?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/29/us-civil-war-fears-poll
I am sure that P1 could fill out the actual environmental costs of a so-called eco-resort for Plibersek.
That is bound to be yet another policy winner from the fertile minds of P1, nath and Rex!!!!!!
Boerwar at 3.37 pm
With respect, you’re not in a majority if, bless you, Covid hasn’t infected you yet. The experts were saying 6 months ago (when there was sustained media interest for a while) that at most official figures counted about 40% of actual infections.
Re Late Riser’s graph, the mass of uncounted infections means the Covid case mortality rate is actually lower. But it is only a one-dimensional graph, as it does not show the amount of infections at all, or accurately.
However, it would be worth comparing that graph with a similar graph for Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and New Zealand. It would show that case mortality in Singapore has dropped more than in Australia, especially after the Delta wave.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/27/hawks-and-doves-open-thread/comment-page-28/#comment-3972939
It depends who controls the Federal Government.
I’m thinking that we should have eco-resorts in the Inner Urbs.
Some considerations:
1. Level an inner suburb.
2. Cart out all the materials, being particularly careful to deal with toxic materials of which there will be scads.
3. Shift the existing population to the edges of the outer urbs.
4. Plant koala habitat!
5. And so on and so forth… to personal taste.
Boerwar @ #1390 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 4:52 pm
Environmental cost? Well, perhaps not nil (how could it be?) but certainly closer to it than any other residential or holiday accommodation – even rough camping would generally do more damage.
Dr D
We are in the an risk group: 70+. We still wear masks when venturing forth. We are quad vaxxed. We still do social distancing. We entertain al fresco. There are costs but then Long Covid and Death are costs as well.
I do have one question. When or how will the next wave be triggered? Or do we absolutely lack the data to answer that question?
p1
I don’t read your posts, except by sad accident. If you have any useful contributions on eco resorts please correspond with Plibersek’s Office. They are bound to be more responsive than the Coalition peeps who bastardized you and your business following Covid and the Fires! Only think! I contacted them to try to help you. They treated me badly, as I recall. They simply had no real interest in helping real people OR Bludger posters. Bastards!
Boerwar @ #1396 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 5:00 pm
Sure Boer. We believe you.
Perhaps you should have contacted Labor peeps, as I did. Or do you not know any?
Gosh … and you such an amiable fellow. I can’t imagine why they had no interest in helping.
Executives, shareholders and superfunds roll in money while the planet dies around them.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/30/huge-profits-for-fossil-fuel-giants-woodside-and-santos-stoke-calls-for-windfall-tax
Rex Douglas @ #1398 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 5:18 pm
But Rex … Labor is now the party of cutting taxes, not imposing them.
David Rowe