Hawks and doves (open thread)

A new poll from the Australia Institute poses many a hard question on the potential for conflict with China.

The Australian has today published a Newspoll result of state voting intention in Victoria, which I have added as an introductory note to my earlier post covering general electoral developments in the state. I am not sure what the deal is with Newspoll’s federal polling – plainly it has not returned to its earlier schedule of a poll every three weeks, as there would otherwise have been one on Monday.

We do have two new attitudinal polls from the Australia Institute, one posing an array of stimulating questions on the potential for conflict with China. This encompassed both an Australian sample of 1003 and a Taiwanese sample of 1002, the survey work being conducted by international market research firm Dynata.

Among many other things, the Australian end of the survey found 47% expecting a Chinese armed attack on Australia either soon (9%) or “sometime” (38%), with only 19% opting for never and 33% uncommitted. Twenty-one per cent felt Australia would be able to defend itself from China without international assistance, compared with 60% who thought otherwise, and 57% anticipate such support would be forthcoming from the United States compared with 11% who didn’t and 19% who opted for “it depends”. Thirty-five per cent would back the US and Australia to win such a conflict compared with 8% for lose and 26% for a draw of some description.

Thirty-seven per cent felt the Australian people would be prepared to go to war if China threatened military action against Australia, effectively equal to the 38% who thought otherwise. Twenty-six per cent were prepared for Australia to go to war to help Taiwan gain independence compared with 33% who weren’t and 41% for uncommitted. Framed a little differently, 14% strongly agreed and 23% less strongly agreed that Australia should “send its defence forces to Taiwan to fight for their freedom … if China incorporated Taiwan”, compared with 20% for disagree and 9% for strongly disagree.

The Taiwanese end of the survey is beyond this site’s scope, thought it’s interesting to note that 41% felt optimistic with respect to the future for Taiwan compared with 40% for neutral and only 20% for pessimistic. The survey was conducted between August 13 and 16 – Nancy Pelosi’s visit was on August 2 and China’s military exercises followed from August 4 to 7.

A second report from the Australia Institute provides results of a poll conducted back in April on the seemingly less pressing subject of “wokeness”, a concept that meant nothing to 43% of those surveyed, ranging from only 22% of those aged 18 to 29 to 59% of those aged 60 and over. Forty-nine per cent of the former cohort owned up to being woke, decreasing with arithmetic precision to 9% for the latter, while around 30% for each of the five age cohorts identified as “not woke”. Interestingly, Coalition and Labor voters produced similar results, with Greens and One Nation voters deviating in the manner you would expect. The poll was conducted from April 5 to 8 from a sample of 1003, so the sub-sample sizes for the results cited above are not great, however intuitively likely the results might be.

Also:

• Anthony Galloway of the Sun-Herald identifies possible successors to Scott Morrison in Cook: Mark Speakman, moderate-aligned state Attorney-General and member for Cronulla; Melanie Gibbons, state member for Holsworthy, who unsuccessfully sought preselection for the Hughes at the federal election; Carmelo Pesce, the mayor of Sutherland Shire; and Alex Cooke, identified only as a “party member”.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has called for submissions to its inquiry into the 2022 federal election. Matters specifically touched up on by the terms of reference include political donation and truth-in-advertising laws, enfranchisement of New Zealand citizens living in Australia and “proportional representation of the states and territories in the parliament”, the latter seemingly referring to the possibility of adding extra seats for the territories in the Senate.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a “quick guide” on the technicalities of when the next federal election might be held, together with a handy calendar showing when state and local elections are due through to 2006.

• No fewer than twelve candidates have nominated for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election on September 17, with Labor not among them, for a seat with only 11,189 voters. As well as the Nationals and the Liberals, there are two candidates of the Western Australia Party, one being hardy perennial Anthony Fels, plus the Greens, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats, No Mandatory Vaccination, the Small Business Party and two independents. My guide to the by-election can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,515 comments on “Hawks and doves (open thread)”

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  2. Boerwar:

    My view us thst we should post 200 S3 repeats every day for the next 1000 days. That way PnathRextor can get their political rocks off and there will be Peace on Bludger for Ever and Ever.

    if Pnathrextor can do endless repetition then we should cut the ABC some slack.

    No words…

  3. Player One @ #1400 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 5:21 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1398 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 5:18 pm

    Executives, shareholders and superfunds roll in money while the planet dies around them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/30/huge-profits-for-fossil-fuel-giants-woodside-and-santos-stoke-calls-for-windfall-tax

    But Rex … Labor is now the party of cutting taxes, not imposing them.

    It’s a 25yr collective effort from the fossil fuel cartel made up of LNP, Labor, corporate media, fossil fuel execs, fossil fuel unions, superfunds and fossil fuel shareholders. Game-set-match.

    Australia is delusional.

  7. Tom the first and best @ #1377 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 3:55 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/27/hawks-and-doves-open-thread/comment-page-27/#comment-3972878

    Fortunately the 538 Lite forecast has the Democrats getting, on average, 52 in the Senate and both 53 and 54 individually more likely than 52. So they have a decent chance of getting some legislation, such as voting rights, through if they keep the House of Reps. However, if the Democrats were to get ~58-62 Senators there might be less appetite for filibuster exemptions and more might be hostage to Manchin, Sinema, Murkowski and Collins.

    Democrats will struggle to hold the House. And with the GOP reps in the house the way they are, very few (if any) will support Democrat led legislation without forcing big changes. Cheney – Gone. Kinzinger – not contesting.

    And dont worry about the Dems getting close to 60 in the senate. Aint happening. 56 would mean Missouri falls to Busch Valentine. She is an interesting chance, but very much an outside chance. Missouri is a state that the Dems would love to see back as a swing state. They havent won it since Bill Clinton (who was governor of neighbouring Arkansas). Trump easily won it both times. Obama in 2008 got close.

  8. From the Guardian live blog – Albo tying himself up in knots:

    Anthony Albanese is on ABC Sydney, again on the defensive about why Labor hasn’t reversed its position and decided to tear up the stage three tax cuts.

    Albanese said:

    We tried to amend the legislation, we weren’t successful, by one vote. All the crossbench in the Senate voted for stage three. That was a legislated change, we had to make a decision once we weren’t successful whether to block all the tax cuts for everyone. We didn’t do that.

    We said at the time it was ambitious to say you know what the economy would look like in 2024. There is also the issue of certainty that is there, these are legislated tax cuts … and we did say we wouldn’t seek to change them, at the election.

    Albanese also claims the stage three tax cuts discussion “wasn’t front and centre” in the election campaign, and that Adam Bandt had a chance to advocate then. Which is odd because: (1) the Greens definitely did advocate this then; and (2) to the extent they weren’t front and centre, it was because Labor promised not to tear them up.

    Albanese said Labor will examine jobseeker “each and every year”, citing the fact Labor passed the biggest increase in the pension “in history” in its last year in office (2013). “Labor will always be better on these issues,” he said, although jobseeker won’t be raised in the October “mini-budget”.

    “Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!”

  9. I’m growing increasingly optimistic about the US midterms. The combination of the Supreme Courts’ overreach, some truly appalling GOP candidates, the Trump factor, and the Biden administration actually getting some stuff done in recent months could well see the Democratics buck the historical trend. They should hopefully hold the Senate, and are in with a good shot at snagging a few extra seats. (In which case, eliminating the filibuster must be the first priority.) Holding the House as well will be a lot tougher, but it actually looks like a possibility now, which is more than could be said a few months ago.

  11. PlayerOne
    The ALP didn’t promise in the last election to raise newstart and the ALP’s refusal is based on some irrational fear of the media.

  13. Mexicanbeemer @ #1411 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 6:03 pm

    PlayerOne
    The ALP didn’t promise in the last election to raise newstart and the ALP’s refusal is based on some irrational fear of the media.

    Labor’s fear of the media is not irrational. But it is also not useful.

    Being afraid of snakes is not irrational. But letting it stop you from going outside is not useful.

  15. The latest considered opinion wrt the House results after the American Mid Terms is GOP + 11. A weaker result than they were hoping for and which may constrain their worst instincts should the Democrats hold or improve their numbers in the Senate.

    I mean, Mad King Don calling today, again, to be reinstated to the Presidency, and if not that then to have a do-over election, cannot be helping the Republicans.

  18. Perrottet campaigning for Daniel Andrews. Why wouldn’t he when the alternative is Matt Guy.

    Both state premiers were keen to highlight what the NSW leader called a “new era” of collaboration between the states across party-political lines

    “I’m not sitting here at a Labor party fundraiser, I’m sitting here with a Premier who wants to get things done and look after his people,” Mr Perrottet said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-30/victoria-nsw-joint-emergency-care-plan/101386200

  19. PlayerOne
    I would say it is irrational because before the 2019 election ALP supporters were like we can’t pick a fight with the media but they couldn’t see the danger in picking on benefits enjoyed by talk back callers.

  21. The Prime Minister sounds uncomfortable and rightly so. Hopefully he will show some enhanced leadership soon.

    They’ll probably announce some kind of Jobseeker review.

  23. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/27/hawks-and-doves-open-thread/comment-page-29/#comment-3972967

    If the Democrats don`t have a majority in the House of Reps, it would be unlikely many Democratic bills would make a vote for procedural reasons, so the Democrats at least need the barest majority for any hope of a legislative agenda.

    The Conservative majority on SCOTUS will likely get plenty of news, which should help motivate Democratic voters and some of the economic headwinds (such as inflationary pressure) have declined in the USA, also helping the Democrats.

  24. Mexicanbeemer @ #1419 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 6:14 pm

    PlayerOne
    I would say it is irrational because before the 2019 election ALP supporters were like we can’t pick a fight with the media but they couldn’t see the danger in picking on benefits enjoyed by talk back callers.

    Yes, that’s a fair point. As is the fact that the Murochracy doesn’t have quite the dominance of our print media that it used to. How many people actually buy Murdoch newspapers these days? Most shops we go to are desperate for you to take them for nothing, because otherwise they can’t get rid of them (and hence can’t add a “sale” to their distribution figures). This was true even a decade or so ago when we lived in Sydney. Who bought newspapers when there were piles of them around the city going for nothing (if you knew where to look)?

  26. Historyintime says:
    Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 6:15 pm

    The Prime Minister sounds uncomfortable and rightly so. Hopefully he will show some enhanced leadership soon.

    They’ll probably announce some kind of Jobseeker review.
    ———————
    I will be very surprised if newstart got raised in this term.

  27. To continue this train of thought, well the new Government and especially the Prime Minister are not heartless bastards and so they will be getting uncomfortable with not doing something for the very underprivileged in economic terms.

    And, they will also be looking to avoid the critique of being overfocussed on Teal type issues.

  29. Best thing the government can do for jobseekers is to find them a job with a real wage. Instead of putting them through a dehumanising system that is the employment industrial complex, which is costing the government a lot of money.

  31. The government would be looking at the unemployed and thinking if they can’t get a job in this market then they are not getting a rise.

  33. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 5:29 pm

    BK @ #1400 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 5:26 pm

    Re the latest David Rowe, there are worse to aspire to.
    中华人民共和国
    I second that. The Hawke-Keating years made sure Australia didn’t become another Argentina.

  34. Mexicanbeemer @ #1431 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 6:40 pm

    The government would be looking at the unemployed and thinking if they can’t get a job in this market then they are not getting a rise.

    I’ll agree to that if we can agree that our federal pollies should get a salary based on a fixed multiple of either JobSeeker or minimum wage.

    Two or three times should be more than ample, don’t you think?.

  35. Nicko @ #1430 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 6:39 pm

    Best thing the government can do for jobseekers is to find them a job with a real wage. Instead of putting them through a dehumanising system that is the employment industrial complex, which is costing the government a lot of money.

    And this is exactly what they have been getting on with doing. Half of the Disability Job Services companies have been given their marching orders. These ticks on the body politic will be gone and will save the government a lot of money.

    My son’s Disability Job Services liaison told us last week that she had been getting 1 or 2 referrals from Centrelink per week before the changes, now she is getting 4 or 5 a day contacting her! That’s increased efficiency and saving taxpayers’ money, right there.

    There will probably be more of it.

  38. Also, south, I make the point that if you are on a wage up to $180000/year, then you are probably working quite hard for that money. You are probably not a salary earner and it’s the rorts of the salary earners which need looking at in order to raise revenue. Not attacking, hard-working PAYE wage earners.

    Anyway, there’s another benefit for people at that wage level. A lot of them are doing salary sacrifice into their Super. This will also save the Budget $$ in the long term.

  39. I would stake my life that there will be a real increase in Jobseeker over the term of this government, probsbly about 10% or so. Also a somewhat more humane system of administration. The alternative to this is not worth thinking about in terms of what the Labor Party stands for.

  40. I applaud Jason Clare for overhauling the ARC but add one cautionary tale:

    When I mentioned this one to Xanthippe she said
    “OK but the main problem before was not the ARC, but the Minister constantly overruling the ARC on grant approvals to fight what he called woke leftism”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/30/academics-welcome-australian-research-council-overhaul-following-controversial-grant-decisions

    If we can get rid of the main problem (ministerial interference on blatantly non-academic grounds) the system will work a lot better, with fewer research careers ruined.

  41. Tom the first and best @ #1438 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 6:49 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/27/hawks-and-doves-open-thread/comment-page-29/#comment-3972993

    Job vacancies and the unemployed are often not in the same location and/or occupation.

    Newstart also includes people who can`t work for temporary (up to 2 years) medical/disability reasons.

    So, retrain them for vacancies in their region. There are plenty of jobs around in the regions as well as the cities. My next door neighbour owns a restaurant on the South Coast of NSW. She can’t find staff for love or money, so she’s having to work in the restaurant with her adult children herself. So, training chefs and wait staff should be a priority. Problem solved for people who thought they had to go out of region to get a job.

    And people with a disability or long term illness, should get Sickness Benefits or be assessed for a Disability Pension. The healthy unemployed should be getting training to fill our skills shortages, not getting a higher rate of JobSeeker.

  42. Historyintime @ #1440 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 6:50 pm

    I would stake my life that there will be a real increase in Jobseeker over the term of this government, probsbly about 10% or so. Also a somewhat more humane system of administration. The alternative to this is to believe that the modern Labor Party is purely an identity/mild green/nice neoliberal outfit.

    I think it will go up to $50/day. But only after there has been a good chunk of Budget repair first, as the Budget is put on a sustainable footing and all the unemployed who can be are put into training for our skills shortage areas.

  43. Thanks for the link c@t. I’ll check it out.

    Re the midterms, past performance will mean less this time. A lot will depend (as always) on the turnout influenced by the events leading up, and the events will be hard to predict. Trump, who lost in 2020, is inserting himself ‘biggly’. I find myself hoping he announces his run for President in 2024, real soon. This will increase the turnout of both ‘sides’ but given he lost 2 years ago plus what is known today, the GOP is right to be worried about that. And of course SCOTUS has inserted itself too. That turnout boost will favour the Dems. And the DOJ are warming up and the J6C are warming up again. On balance that should persuade Rep voters to stay home. Timing of events will be the thing.

  44. C@T
    If the government was serious about mutual obligation then it should be setting the mutual obligations to if the unemployed are turning up to tutorials and lectures in whatever course they are studying.

  45. And you can see that Budget repair is first and foremost in the minds of the government with their determination not to bring in the Child Care changes until July 1 next year.

    I actually disagree with the government on this one because I can see the merit of the argument that every $1 invested by the government in a Child Care subsidy, produces $2 of benefit to the Economy.

    Hopefully they can be persuaded to change their minds on this one.

  49. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgEAbLk8jSI
    Decent wrap up. Thanks.

    For mine, Trump stole those documents. They have been recovered. The damage, past and ongoing, is being evaluated.

    Re the Special Master, I believe that was granted, but the DOJ response was very quick, as if they had prepared for it. The document filtering was already done, which as I understand it, means that the Special Master won’t slow down a thing.

  50. Soc,

    I have to disagree with Xanthippe on that.

    The whole structure of the ARC’s competitive grants scheme makes it an incredibly time consuming lottery with a very small chance of success, plus added bad actors.

    The minister’s interventions were simply whipped cream on a croquembouche of administrative turds.

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