YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8

All revealed from the YouGov MRP poll that was teased yesterday, suggesting Labor is on track for a fairly comfortable parliamentary majority in its own right.

The Australian now has the full suite of projected seat results from the YouGov MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, conducted April 14 to May 7 from a sample of 18,923. Usings its data to model results based on electorates’ demography, rather than just the relatively small number of respondents from a given electorate, it projects Labor to win a clear majority of 80 seats, with the Coalition to win 63, the Greens one and others seven.

Seats projected as Labor gains are Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid and Robertson in New South Wales, Chisholm and Higgins in Victoria, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, and Bass in Tasmania. However, some of these are 50-50 calls on two-party preferred that are identified as leaning fractionally to either side. This includes Bennelong and Lindsay, with Longman, Ryan and Sturt identified as remaining with the Coalition, and Corangamite as a potential Labor loss.

As noted in yesterday’s post, the model also projects Kooyong and Goldstein as teal independent gains from the Liberals, and for all existing cross-benchers to retain their seats. While Brisbane is listed as a clear Labor win, its near tie on the primary vote between Labor on 29% and the Greens on 28% suggests either could be the one to ride over the Liberal National Party on 36% with the preferences of the other.

Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:

• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.

• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.

• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.

• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.

• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.

• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.

These numbers for the most part line up reasonably well with BludgerTrack, except in South Australia where BludgerTrack has both major parties quite a bit higher on the primary vote. The Labor numbers are also lower than in BludgerTrack from the five biggest states, ranging from a 0.7% difference in New South Wales to a 2.9% difference in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8”

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  1. I find it hilarious, for all the bleating Murray made about “the will of the people” being ignored when Abbott was rolled, he seems very keen on not respecting the will of the people when he disagrees with it.

    Hardly a surprise Agro in human form is a belligerent prick. At least Agro off camera was MORE entertaining.

  2. As AA Calwell said to him in caucus at the time – “it won’t be long before you are leading a Nationalist government”
    Curtin fled the caucus room

  3. Bluey insists that he did not have sex with that man-occie.

    Aside from its seeming reluctance to wield poison, H. fasciata has another quirk: Males don’t appear capable of distinguishing between sexes. “You would think that an animal, with such amazing ability of color change, would convey [their sex] to the other members of their population, but they don’t,” Finn says. Mating thus becomes a bit of a crapshoot, with males lusting after both sexes. “They just have no clue when it comes to spotting the girls,” says Finn.

    The mating process is even more theatrical given the fact that males also have a physical handicap, so to speak. In octopus species, males have a modified arm that they use to deliver a packet of sperm into a female’s oviducts, which are located in a space in her sack-like body called the mantle cavity (“essentially, he hands [the sperm] to her,” says Finn). In the well-studied blue-ringed octopus species, that reproductive arm is shorter than the other arms, which means that a male needs to grab onto a female in order to successfully insert the sperm. As a result, if a male H. fasciata mistakenly latches onto another male, “it’s not until he’s actually got his reproductive arm inside the mantle cavity [that] he goes, ‘Oop! Sorry—you’re a bloke!’” says Finn. He then lets go of the embrace and keeps on trying until he gets it right.

  4. Which Australian Premier did time in prison prior to his Premiership, where he had a manservant and his own wood working shop?

  5. Oakeshott Country

    Calwell was instrumental in organising the downfall of the Argyle government, as I’m sure you’d know. He said this was one of his most proud achievements, “breaking the back of conservatism in Victoria”, along with expanding the MCG and the postwar immigration program.

  6. Back from doing my duty on the afternoon/night shift handing out HTVs for the good doctor. I was heartened that, even on a wet and dark night in Woy Woy, our candidate was as cheery as hell and he was actually treated like a rock star when people going in to vote saw that ‘the guy in the photo’ was actually there to speak to them!

    It’s certainly different this time to last as it seems as though that group of people that Labor have found it hard to get, being the ones that work very, very hard at 1 or 2 jobs and live harried lives as they strive to get ahead and keep their heads above water, that the Liberals have had a lock on for the last 2 or 3 elections, seem to have shifted across into our column. Or at least it seemed that way to me from the short exposure I got to the electors tonight. I even talked one guy around I think who was going to vote Liberal. 🙂

  7. Thanks Zoomster for travelling to honour Lizzie.

    I think of her often – she was a wonderfully positive influence on pollbludger. She’s very much missed.

  8. zoomster
    Thank you. I miss our lizzie. One of the many things I admire about her was that she was ready when it was time to go.

  9. Got me on that one
    I was thinking of Hugh Mahon jailed in Killmainham for Land League agitation but he held federal rather than state office.

  10. For those interested Kevin Rudd will be in Hervey Bay this coming Sunday afternoon addressing a crowd of interested electors and in support of Jason Scanes ALP for Hinkler.

  11. “Once you’ve met a candidate it’s a lot harder to say things like, “They’re all the same.””

    So that’s the solution, we get Greens voters to actually meet Labor and Liberal candidates!

    But seriously, the danger in meeting politicians is they are usually great at charming people in person, it’s how they get there in the first place.

    Mia Freedman on actually meeting Tony Abbott is a piece I still have in my bookmarks:

  12. I’ve met politicians with some of the most hideous reputations, and walked away liking them… and hating myself as a consequence.

    I have to say Tony Abbott is not one I walked away liking.

  13. Hoping that I will get through any spam filter, here is what an actual Modern Monetary Theorist says about the relationship between government spending, inflation and taxation:

    Conservatives favour tax cuts because they ultimately reduce the sustainable size of government. Why?

    While tax revenue does not fund government spending it does represent a reduction in the purchasing power of households and corporations, which means it frees up real resources that may have been deployed within the non-government sector with increased purchasing power.

    That allows the government to increase spending and bring those ‘idle’ productive resources back into use.

    If the non-government sector spending is higher and they have a greater share of the total resources available in the economy then there is less room for the government sector to spend without promoting inflationary pressures.

    Notwithstanding these ideological issues, tax cuts are, in general, less effective in stimulating spending that direct government spending.

    Notice that he does not say “Conservatives favour tax cuts because they ultimately reduce the sustainable size of government. Why? Because they are wrong. There is no limit to the amount of money the government can spend.” No, that’s not his words. He agrees with and argues for the conservatives’ premise. “Tax cuts ultimately reduce the sustainable size of government. Why? … there is less room for the government sector to spend without promoting inflationary pressures.”

    And this is nothing unusual. It’s not some concession or an “even in the worst case” type of argument. You can read it again and again through his writings; it’s part of the very core of MMT. Tax levels must be set to provide the government with access to resources that would otherwise be unavailable, or only available with unacceptable inflationary pressure. The size of the debt or deficit is irrelevant, and there is no requirement that outgoings need to be balanced by income, but the taxation itself is very important if you want the government to do something useful.

  14. We’ve had various pollies in for lunch. Enjoyable and lively company, usually. One subsequently turned out to be a pedo.

  15. In NT election there was only one polling place from memory in our Darwin electorate so on Election Day both candidates were there the whole day and you could meet them as you queued to go in. The Labor candidate had already personally called in to our place. Small electorates (in Darwin at least) with about 8000 people per electorate then.

    We ran into a lot of Territory MPs, even current and future Chief Ministers, in our day to day lives.

  16. The Coalition will do better than expected in Victoria at this election I’m feeling. The Coalition will retain Chisholm, Casey and Deakin and will gain Corangamite and Dunkley.

  17. Labor are obviously serious about the seat of Higgins this time, K Rudd there today rallying the troops.
    So Scomo on 7.30 next Monday, bet it’s a pre-recorded interview and Leigh is softer on him than she’d be on Albanese

  18. zoomster @ #719 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 6:31 pm

    OK, folks.

    I’m travelling down on Saturday morning to attend the sprinkling of lizzie/Zoe’s ashes.

    If you want to contribute a few words, I’ll collate them and read them out.

    She was always the calm amidst the storm. Wise and resolutely even-handed. Just a gem of a human being.

  19. Sprocket
    Not sure about engagements early Friday but Rudd’s expected in Groom for dinner tomorrow night & brekky Saturday morning.

  20. BK: “I wasn’t aware that Lizzie had died. She was a lovely person. Vale.”

    From what I can remember, you were having a few comms issues. Sad that you’re learning it for the first time, but there were quite a number of poignant words said.

  21. Had a quick look at the OZ newspaper website to see what they are up to. Shari Markson, “investigate reporter” has come up with a Manchurian Candidate story about Richard Marles again. They seem to have run out of ideas over there at Liberal HQ so she is just making it up for them. Too funny !!

  22. Rocket Rocket
    But the other side of small electorates is that there are certain people who, if you know them, you will never vote for.
    I am thinking of the recently defeated member for Fong Lim, who at the last election got 400 votes

  23. D says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:49 pm

    Not sure about engagements early Friday but Rudd’s expected in Groom for dinner tomorrow night & brekky Saturday morning.
    Geez if Rudd is followed by “The Angel of Death” in Groom things will be interesting! Hehe

  24. @jt – never actually met Abbott. The PMs I have met in person are Fraser, Whitlam, Hawke and Gillard. I don’t think I was terribly polite to Fraser at the time but it was probably around 1994 and I don’t think he’d really had his Damascene conversion yet.

  25. Bree says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:42 pm

    “The Coalition will do better than expected in Victoria at this election I’m feeling. The Coalition will retain Chisholm, Casey and Deakin and will gain Corangamite and Dunkley.”

    I admire your optimism but not your judgement.
    I believe Australia (including Victoria) deserves better.

  26. Rudd will be visiting all the pre-poll booths around town.
    It’ll be interesting to see the medias behaviour.
    This place is ink!

  27. So Rudd is going to Hinkler – that is a seat where Labor apparently is no hope all. A shame, Jason Scanes is an ideal candidate with his military record

  28. “I think KRudd is having the time of his life back on the hustings.”

    He certainly looks like he’s thrilled to be back and getting rockstar receptions. Someone slap him with a wet lettuce if he so much as muses about actually running for Parliament again though.

  29. Bree better be right, for her own sake. If the Labor party improves on its position in Victoria at this election, the Vic Liberals should just hand in their registrations. What’s the point in them if they can’t compete? More seats than Queensland and they just won’t shift? Only hope for the non-Labor side would be a community independent movement that can coalesce into a workable party that provides competition in state parliament and balance in federal parliament.

  30. The coalition will run hard on Albo’s minimum wage call for the final nine days. It’s all they’ve got.

    Call it overly simplistic but economic management is what it comes down to for a lot of people. I still don’t understand where this 25% undecided thing comes from, but if it’s true it’s a risk for Labor.

    Albo needs to project competence on the economy while the focus remains on wages. I’ve seen both Raf Epstein and Andrew Clennel today report that in their conversations people are unconvinced about Albo. It’s not media bias – it’s the genuine public feeling. Of course I’m very convinced by Albo but that doesn’t matter.

    He may well get across the line anyway, aided by the publics’s visceral disdain for Scotty, but he has to tread carefully. Scotty is projecting good economic management in the sound bites I see – Albo is simply talking about “a dollar more” and whatnot. Of course, it’s all bullshit but image matters.

    Importantly, Albo’s arguing for minimum wage workers to keep up while Scotty’s arguing for them to go backwards. This is what actually matters and Labor can’t let this point be lost amongst the jargon.

  31. jt1983,
    My wife was rowing in Canberra and saw Howard that morning doing his power walk. She became overwhelmed with star power and waved like a fan girl.
    She still feels bad about it.

  32. Thanks Zoomster for collating people’s thought’s.

    Lizzie welcomed and listened to all even if not in agreement. A great trait being lost. PB which is a bloody awesome mix of views and opinions has missed her greatly. That’s an even rarer ability in an online world. Vale

  33. hazza4257 ,
    Albo has an excellent comeback on that minimum wage attack. If the economy can’t handle a buck an hour for the lowest paid then what has happened to this great economy.

    Also, he’s making great headway with that 5 Billion wasted on subs line.

    It’s furniture saving time people!

  34. Dandy Murray-Honeydew @ Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:04 pm
    “Griff @7:42,

    On MRP, if there’s no hierarchical Dirichlet process I’m not interested.”

    I think a Bayesian approach could be adopted. It would be nice with longitudinal data. But I do not think YouGov have. At least not yet 🙂

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