YouGov has dropped the first results from Australia’s first ever published MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, which aims for a detailed election prediction by surveying an expansive national sample of 18,923 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate. Its methods are outlined in The Australian by Campbell White of YouGov and University of Sydney data science lecturer Shaun Ratcliff. The method became something of a cause celebre when it predicted the hung parliament at the United Kingdom election in 2017 that crippled the prime ministership of Theresa May, a rare success for the British polling industry in that period. However, it did less well at the subsequent election in 2019, tipping a 28-seat Conservative majority that actually came in at 80.
It seems News Corp plans on getting some bang for its presumably considerable buck here by dealing out results piecemeal, as all we have at this stage is projected results from seats in which independent candidates (plus Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance in Mayo) might be thought competitive. Since the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances, I suspect it would be more robust in traditional party-based contests.
The results nonetheless point to Liberal defeats at the hands of teal independents in Kooyong (by 53-47) and Goldstein (52-48), but not in Wentworth (56-44) or Mackellar (53-47), and particularly not in North Sydney and Curtin, where independents are projected to finish a fairly distant third behind Labor. There is also no suggestion of independent Georgia Steele being competitive in Hughes, contrary to some media reports.
Indeed, the North Sydney result is interesting in showing Labor within striking distance at 53-47, consistent with the account of Liberal internal polling by Karen Middleton in the Saturday Paper and John Howard’s presence at Trent Zimmerman’s campaign launch last week. It is also encouraging for Labor in crediting them with a 53-47 lead in Boothby, and deficits of only 52-48 in each of their little-rated prospects of Page, Casey and Flinders.
The incumbent cross-benchers are projected to retain their seats, but by a narrower margin than I would have thought likely in the case of Andrew Wilkie in Clark (61-39 over Labor, a swing against him of 10%). Rebekha Sharkie is also credited with a margin of only 52-48 in Mayo, a swing against her of 3%. Zali Steggall is projected to slightly increase her 7.2% margin in Warringah, while a lead of 53-47 is projected for Helen Haines in Indi, compared with her 1.4% winning margin in 2019. The neighbouring seat of Nicholls, where independent Rob Priestly is widely thought to be a show, is not featured.
Also:
• Peter van Onselen reported on Ten News yesterday that “an unauthorised leak of Liberal polling” showed the Liberals trailing Labor by 55-45 in Bennelong, and also behind in Reid and Robertson, together with Gilmore and Parramatta, which the party has had high hopes of gaining from Labor. Van Onselen specified that this was polling conducted by the party’s fractious New South Wales branch, and was not part of the federal party’s tracking polling of 20 target seats.
• Raf Epstein of the ABC in Victoria posted results of Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan that showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences. The Greens are said to be on 8.4%, Labor 6.7% and the United Australia Party 5.2%.
• Day one of pre-polling on Monday drew 309,769 voters. Comparisons with 2019 are complicated by the fact that the pre-poll period has been reduced from three weeks to two: 661,225 pre-poll votes were cast in the entire first week of 2019, a figure low enough to encourage each of the main parties to agree that the first of the three weeks was not worth their bother, followed by 253,684 votes on day one of week two. Antony Green is helpfully plotting the relevant statistics, which point to a substantial upswing in postal vote applications: 13.2% of total enrolment compared with 8.1% at the equivalent point in 2019.
• Michael Gunner resigned as Chief Minister of the Northern Territory yesterday, but will remain the member for his Darwin seat of Fannie Bay. The Northern Territory News rates the favourites to replace him as Nicole Manison, Deputy Chief Minister, member for Wanguri and factional colleague of Gunner in the Right; Natasha Fyles, Health Minister, member for Nightcliff and member of the Left; and, unlikely as it may seem, back-bencher Joel Bowden, Johnston MP and former AFL player for Richmond.
Even some of the undecided seem to be tossing up Labor-Green or Labor Independent rather than Labor-Coalition.
Can’t wait to see the nation’s best political analysists after the break
Remember that there might already be people who are not undecided because they have decided to prefer Labor over Coalition. The ‘undecideds’ watching the debate may simply be deciding how big Labor’s margin will be.
Of course, that might just be wishful thinking.
Leroy says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 10:30 pm
Thanks
I call bullshit, especially on Wentworth, Sharma only 1% down on 2019… he is toast
Socrates
Thanks. Have put it in my favourites. Will check it out over the next couple of days.
Poroti
If you are about and you are following that site I linked (and which you excoriated!) and detect bullshit I would appreciate your drawing my attention to it.
With current polling numbers, 80 seats is only a tepid win.
Realistically Albo would want to win by more than that if he (1) wants to have any legislative potency, so LNP+PHON do not have a Senate blocking majority, and (2) wants to last more than one term
At a time of 4% unemployment how can the argument of business business business win with workers?
If I’m a worker what’s in it for me with the LNP? I’ll leave your business if you treat me poorly. But business business business is all you hear from Morrison.
The criticism since I was young pre Hawke was that Labor doesn’t understand business. The LNP has lost all connection with workers. It was laid bare tonight.
Sometimes democracies give the screaming heebie jeebies. And then I think about all the alternatives.
Oh, what it is to be human!
After the debate result, we’re going to enter the “saving the furniture” period for the terminal morrison.
No eye contact between Albo and Scrotty before during or after that handshake. There’s definitely no love lost there – not the case with every PM and LOTO
“Tricot says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 10:36 pm
Gee, Notting Hill Pub…is it still in existence?….Was in Melbourne Uni days….”
The pub is close to Monash Uni (Clayton campus).
SCMP Breaking News
“Outspoken Catholic leader and activist Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun has been arrested by Hong Kong’s national security police, along with former opposition lawmaker Margaret Ng Ngoi-yee and singer Denise Ho Wan-sze for allegedly colluding with foreign forces, according to sources. “
If SfM doesn’t win will he push for another debate…..
All I saw was smirks and talking points, the economy, business, economy, risk, same old same old.
I actually think it wa a pretty close call between them, SfM hammered the economy and had a pretty free go, Albo could have been much stronger with rorts, wages and ICAC but held back, but if you are the box seat already there is no need to go to town
Sad thing is, Scotty has clearly workshopped the “loose unit” thing and there are punters out there who’ll go “yer, ScoMo is right. I’m voting Liberal”
The Notting Hill Hotel is most certainly still there!! I’ve played gigs in the beer garden fairly recently.
When living on campus at Monash, it’s your second home.
I like how they are saying it was “More civil”
You know what isn’t civil. Boat turn backs and sexually harassing your staff.
This debate is as much about the contest between labor and liberal as it is between 9 and 7.
@hazza – those swayed by that are so few a) they were never really open b) are not of anyone’s concern.
People who’d vote for the new character “Scotty the Loose Unit” were already voting for the “ScoMo the Sharkies aw mate how good is curry” character from last time. So probably not much net change.
The Nott is an institution, about the only Monash Uni pub. As opposed to the many options for the Melbourne or RMIT Uni students.
I just saw the Liberal ad with the demented “more taxes” nursery rhyme to the tune of there’s a hole in my bucket, and the desperate lies about Labor costings. A sign of how low they’re going to go, but I’m pretty sure it will come across as desperate.
Sportsbet just shifted very slightly more to Labor (69.3% to 69.9% chance)
Labor 1.36, Coalition 3.15
A mix between an Albo win and even stevens from the PB panel tonight. Interesting as I felt Albo won quite convincingly but it’s good to have some diversity of opinion. No matter their merit, you can always rely on Scotty to deliver his talking points relatively cleanly.
” We can do better – now there’s a winning slogan…”
A great slogan. Maybe we could add “much”. Also use positive and negative variants as required:
– We’re much better than this.
– Not good enough
jt1983 @ #1465 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 10:46 pm
Oh I agree. I just hate that they exist
@hazza – hardly worth investing.
B.S. Fairman says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 10:47 pm
The Nott is an institution, about the only Monash Uni pub. As opposed to the many options for the Melbourne or RMIT Uni students.
———————————————
That might answer your earlier comment about the audience.
Last debate – marginal win to Albo (IMHO). That is all he needed – he probably didn’t even need that.
Morrison – too scripted.
Albo – less scripted and more genuine.
There are troops on the streets of Colombo at the moment. Perhaps there is coup going on in Sri Lanka?
Our cricketers are due there in less 4 weeks.
Anyone notice just how flashy and ‘American presidential’ these debates are going in the set dressing, all blue and white and the names and 2022 is big letters, when the republic comes we know what style it will be.
A bit of credit to Sky, it was far more toned down, alot less trashy and a better format too.
@hazza: Morrison is winging it. Maybe rugby territory is different (though I doubt it), but in footy territory you only ever hear “loose unit” said approvingly. People like loose units.
Thanks to all for sparing from watching the (mass)debate.
Vox pops re ‘how will Labor pay’ and ‘Coalition good on economy’ can be infuriating because they’re demonstrably untrue.
Just shows the Coalition have won the propaganda battles on the economy and national security, despite being atrocious on both.
I paraphrase an American political saying: ‘when the Left loses an election, they get sad; when the Right loses an election, they get mad.’
Part of Labor’s ‘sadness’ is walking away from its economic successes after electoral defeats. After 1996, Labor seemed to disown the Hawke/Keating reforms; from the 2010 removal of Rudd, Labor failed to promote its protection of this economy through the GFC (globally unmatched.)
It’s like defeat chastened Labor.
I say never again.
Albo has been proud of Hawke/Keating and Rudd/Gillard. Win, lose or draw on 21 May, Labor should continue to be proud of its economic and national security achievements. This is a prerequisite to fighting the propaganda battles with the Coalition in these spaces.
No no, blessed are the swing voters. I wish I was one. Imagine being able to change one’s mind. Wouldn’t it be wonderful.
Lanai spent about two seconds discussing Albo’s 50-25 win over Scotty in Macquarie. It’s just funny at this point.
BSF
Ironic after the peaceful tour of Pakistan
hazza
No matter their merit, you can always rely on Scotty to deliver his talking points relatively cleanly.
It’s dead easy when you’ve grown up listening to the Pentecostal bullsh*t week after week.
Macquarie: 50% to Albo, 25% to Scotty, 25% undecided.
BSF
The situation is parlous. Lots of hunger. The Government banned imports of fertilizer for greens reasons. The result has been catastrophic.
Blink and you’ll miss it.
Macquarie pub verdict:
Albo won the debate – 50%
Scotty won – 25%
Undecided – 25%
Mexicanbeamer – It is not exactly the centre of the electorate but there are not a lot of pubs in the heart of the electorate due to the historical dry zones. Bars yes, but not a lot of “pubs”.
The post debate chat is not good for Morrison.
Had to laugh at the stupid, obvious Kerry Stokes 7 West questions on the carbon and mining taxes.
Boerwar,
Just wait for the election. It’s going to be a ripper.
Arky says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 10:47 pm
I just saw the Liberal ad with the demented “more taxes” nursery rhyme to the tune of there’s a hole in my bucket, and the desperate lies about Labor costings. A sign of how low they’re going to go, but I’m pretty sure it will come across as desperate.
_____________________________
Well that ties in with SfM talking points on labor costings in the debate, obviously focus grouped before going out.
Who is that bobbling head from Perth?
“Sportsbet just shifted very slightly more to Labor”
Every day and “event” that passes without major incident favours the team in the lead. Get past the costings release without a major fluff and the lid might come off.
Is it just me, or are the panellists being fair and reasonable?
The guy from the West very passionate about Albo’s “missed opportunity” on Tudge.
Very strange
I get the impression Sam Maiden cannot wait for the end of the Morrison govt.
Who is this idiot from the West?
Hold back the tears Lanai. Scotty has “squibbed” the debate and the election.