YouGov MRP poll (part one) and more

YouGov unveils an ambitious project to project the complete result of the federal election, as more reports emerge of grim internal polling for the Liberals.

YouGov has dropped the first results from Australia’s first ever published MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, which aims for a detailed election prediction by surveying an expansive national sample of 18,923 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate. Its methods are outlined in The Australian by Campbell White of YouGov and University of Sydney data science lecturer Shaun Ratcliff. The method became something of a cause celebre when it predicted the hung parliament at the United Kingdom election in 2017 that crippled the prime ministership of Theresa May, a rare success for the British polling industry in that period. However, it did less well at the subsequent election in 2019, tipping a 28-seat Conservative majority that actually came in at 80.

It seems News Corp plans on getting some bang for its presumably considerable buck here by dealing out results piecemeal, as all we have at this stage is projected results from seats in which independent candidates (plus Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance in Mayo) might be thought competitive. Since the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances, I suspect it would be more robust in traditional party-based contests.

The results nonetheless point to Liberal defeats at the hands of teal independents in Kooyong (by 53-47) and Goldstein (52-48), but not in Wentworth (56-44) or Mackellar (53-47), and particularly not in North Sydney and Curtin, where independents are projected to finish a fairly distant third behind Labor. There is also no suggestion of independent Georgia Steele being competitive in Hughes, contrary to some media reports.

Indeed, the North Sydney result is interesting in showing Labor within striking distance at 53-47, consistent with the account of Liberal internal polling by Karen Middleton in the Saturday Paper and John Howard’s presence at Trent Zimmerman’s campaign launch last week. It is also encouraging for Labor in crediting them with a 53-47 lead in Boothby, and deficits of only 52-48 in each of their little-rated prospects of Page, Casey and Flinders.

The incumbent cross-benchers are projected to retain their seats, but by a narrower margin than I would have thought likely in the case of Andrew Wilkie in Clark (61-39 over Labor, a swing against him of 10%). Rebekha Sharkie is also credited with a margin of only 52-48 in Mayo, a swing against her of 3%. Zali Steggall is projected to slightly increase her 7.2% margin in Warringah, while a lead of 53-47 is projected for Helen Haines in Indi, compared with her 1.4% winning margin in 2019. The neighbouring seat of Nicholls, where independent Rob Priestly is widely thought to be a show, is not featured.

Also:

• Peter van Onselen reported on Ten News yesterday that “an unauthorised leak of Liberal polling” showed the Liberals trailing Labor by 55-45 in Bennelong, and also behind in Reid and Robertson, together with Gilmore and Parramatta, which the party has had high hopes of gaining from Labor. Van Onselen specified that this was polling conducted by the party’s fractious New South Wales branch, and was not part of the federal party’s tracking polling of 20 target seats.

• Raf Epstein of the ABC in Victoria posted results of Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan that showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences. The Greens are said to be on 8.4%, Labor 6.7% and the United Australia Party 5.2%.

• Day one of pre-polling on Monday drew 309,769 voters. Comparisons with 2019 are complicated by the fact that the pre-poll period has been reduced from three weeks to two: 661,225 pre-poll votes were cast in the entire first week of 2019, a figure low enough to encourage each of the main parties to agree that the first of the three weeks was not worth their bother, followed by 253,684 votes on day one of week two. Antony Green is helpfully plotting the relevant statistics, which point to a substantial upswing in postal vote applications: 13.2% of total enrolment compared with 8.1% at the equivalent point in 2019.

• Michael Gunner resigned as Chief Minister of the Northern Territory yesterday, but will remain the member for his Darwin seat of Fannie Bay. The Northern Territory News rates the favourites to replace him as Nicole Manison, Deputy Chief Minister, member for Wanguri and factional colleague of Gunner in the Right; Natasha Fyles, Health Minister, member for Nightcliff and member of the Left; and, unlikely as it may seem, back-bencher Joel Bowden, Johnston MP and former AFL player for Richmond.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,611 comments on “YouGov MRP poll (part one) and more”

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  3. ‘mj says:
    Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 10:56 pm

    I get the impression Sam Maiden cannot wait for the end of the Morrison govt.’
    ————————————————————
    I would bet a thousand dollars that she knows stuff that would make our hair curl.

  5. I’m glad those initial vox pops didn’t reflect the votes. I thought I was going crazy thinking Albo did well. There’s only so much average punter ignorance one can take.

  6. Sounds like Sam Maiden will pursue the Tudge story e.g. why was money paid to Miller, why would the PM have him back as a minister.

  7. I’m assuming that because this debate lacked the shouty biffo that Seven’s ratings for this debate will be well shy of Nine’s big figures, approaching 1 million.

  8. Albanese learned from the nine shambles. He went nice. Smiled. Was pleasant. Did not significantly interrupt. Cared for people as individuals.

    Morrison let Mr Nasty out for a run. I reckon that hurt him tonight. Morrison cares for numbers.

  9. The media has softened, bring on the next few days and the costings release and the count.

    May the alp win big and smirko, Dutton and frydenberg are all banished.

  10. Back to Sri Lanka – The Military has never ever taken over in the country, so it is not like Pakistan, Bangladesh or Thailand where it happens ever decade or so. So the situation is very serious if that is what happened.
    BTW If there was ICAC in that country, it would explode due to over work however.

  13. What a comment. Criticise Albo for not saying he would sack Tudge when sfm was standing right there supporting Tudge back into the ministry avoids criticism

  14. The Age “expert” panel’s verdict:

    Shane Wright: draw
    Jacqueline Maley: “dead draw”
    Chip Le Grand: Albanese win
    Dana Daniel (who?): draw
    Anthony Gallaway: Morrison win
    Rachel Clun: Albanese win

  15. I don’t think inspiring from Opposition is really an option anymore. Doubly so for any Labor opposition.

    The media has always been shallow and biased, but the addiction to conflict now that feeds off of social media probably makes anything more than milquetoast pronouncements an open invitation for a pile on.

    Just look at how hard the tools are trying to spin Albo’s perfectly benign suggestion that after a decade of falling real wages perhaps the minimum wage should keep pace with inflation for a while.

    I wouldn’t be confident that even a failure as obvious as Morrison and this government couldn’t have saved themselves had Labor dared to propose any policy that could be spun into a scare no matter how ridiculous their smear.

    Still work to do for Labor, but mostly that looks to be not fucking up and scaring the horses. Otherwise at this stage looking like a well executed strategy to keep the incumbent to focus and give him as little to work with to camouflage his incompetence as possible.

  17. ‘B.S. Fairman says:
    Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 11:00 pm

    Back to Sri Lanka – The Military has never ever taken over in the country, so it is not like Pakistan, Bangladesh or Thailand where it happens ever decade or so. So the situation is very serious if that is what happened.
    BTW If there was ICAC in that country, it would explode due to over work however.’
    ———————————————
    +1

  19. “that’s interesting”

    is it ch7?

    Your low-sample self-selecting pub polls are useless by any measure other than content filler

  21. Interesting the homogeneity of the results.

    Lanai Scarr: it’s really interesting that Albo won big everywhere, but yeah what about that draw in Hasluck. How interesting is that Hasluck result?!

  25. The general MSM reporting is what counts here. A couple of days ago Morrison was calling Albanese ‘weak’.
    Albanese has now beat him two debates from three with the other evens.

  26. Funny to watch these chuds talk about a pub test poll with the weight of a properly sampled poll.
    They have run out of content. Just put big brother back on.

  32. 7 west media releasing a poll tomorrow saying 53% believe Albo to be the better economic manager compared to 47% for Morrison

  33. Ch 7 “Pub Test”, after the final debate:

    50% ALP
    34% Coalition
    16% Undecided

    Funny enough, that’s roughly what the pollsters are saying too.

    What else can Scomo do to save the collective a..e of the Coalition?… Suggestions are open.

  35. leftieBrawler says:
    Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 11:06 pm

    7 west media releasing a poll tomorrow saying 53% believe Albo to be the better economic manager compared to 47% for Morrison
    中華民國
    Me thinks the Tories are off the knackers’ yard.

  37. The pub tests are dumb and unrepresentative of course but that doesn’t matter.
    Albo “won”and that’s the narrative the peanut brains in the msm will have to run with tomorrow, albeit through clenched teeth for most of them.

  39. ” Blink and you’ll miss it.

    Macquarie pub verdict:
    Albo won the debate – 50%
    Scotty won – 25%
    Undecided – 25%”

    Those numbers are suspiciously round. Was there a multiple of four people in the pub? Anyway, they seem incomplete. What about the percentage who asked “there was a debate?”. Or “couldn’t give a stuff!” Or “Who was that fat bastard who wouldn’t shut up?”

  40. Alpo says:
    Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 11:07 pm

    Ch 7 “Pub Test”, after the final debate:

    50% ALP
    34% Coalition
    16% Undecided

    Funny enough, that’s roughly what the pollsters are saying too.

    What else can Scomo do to save the collective a..e of the Coalition?… Suggestions are open.
    中華民國
    walk – bus – ouch

  42. I dunno what the media is doing by ignoring the polls pointing to a Labor landslide, but it suits Labor. If the narrative from day 1 of the campaign was Labor set to win, the campaign dynamics and polls at this point could be very different (don’t attack me)

  43. That surprising best economic manager polling is surely a direct result of the RBA rate rise, and Morrison’s laughable attempts to explain why it’s actually a good thing.

  45. I’m not sure there is anything that can save Scomo now, unless there is some massive, industry killing, polling error. The biggest problem the LNP have is him, so maybe he could STFU a bit more to save some more furniture.

  47. hazza4257 says:
    Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 11:10 pm

    I dunno what the media is doing by ignoring the polls pointing to a Labor landslide, but it suits Labor. If the narrative from day 1 of the campaign was Labor set to win, the campaign dynamics and polls at this point could be very different (don’t attack me)
    中華民國
    Agree

  48. CPI in USA was released 40 minutes ago. 8.3% YOY but monthly increase lower than April.
    Aussie dollar gave up earlier gains.

  49. Sometimes democracies give the screaming heebie jeebies. And then I think about all the alternatives.
    Oh, what it is to be human!

    Ha, too true. Have been having similar thoughts being back on the polling booth today. So much bullshit and lies and just plain inanity, but I love our democracy anyway. You look at what the poor bastards in Ukraine are going through just so they can have something like it rather than Putin or poison/prison and you should feel incredibly lucky.

  50. hazza4257 @ #1519 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 11:04 pm

    Who is the bloke on the left on 7?

    Simon Jackman from The University of Sydney:

    Professor · University of Sydney
    Specialties: data science, statistical computing, survey research. Experienced statistical consultant in litigation and business.

    Professor of Political Science, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

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