Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor; Ipsos: Labor 50, Coalition 35, undecided 15

A tick in Labor’s favour from the latest Newspoll, along with a more decisive turn in the second Ipsos poll for the campaign.

The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 53-47 to 54-46, their primary vote up a point to 39% with the Coalition down one to 35% and the three minor parties steady, the Greens at 11%, One Nation at 5% and the United Australia Party at 4%. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are deteriorated, his approval down three to 41% and disapproval up four to 55%, while Anthony Albanese is up a point to 41% and down two to 47%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-39 to 44-42.

The poll also found Labor leading 44% to 41% as best party to handle cost-of-living pressures. On this question at least, breakdowns are apparently offered by gender (44% each among men, but 45% to 38% in favour of Labor among women) and age (dramatically more favourable to the Coalition among the old than the young, as usual). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1523.

Also out today in the Financial Review was an Ipsos poll suggesting Labor is headed for a landslide win, with primary votes of Labor 35% (up one since a fortnight ago), Coalition 29% (down three), Greens 12% (steady), One Nation 4% (steady), United Australia Party 3% (steady) others 9% (up two) and 7% undecided (down one).

The poll offers two interpretations of two-party preferred, one of which asks respondents who support minor parties or independents to either state a preference between the Coalition and Labor or remain uncommitted, which has Labor on 50% and the Coalition on 35%, with the remaining 15% being those uncommitted on either the primary vote or the preferences question. The other allocates distributes minor party and independent preferences as per the 2019 election result, which has Labor on 52% and the Coalition on 40% with 8% identified as undecided. The accompanying report notes this translates into a 57-43 lead for Labor if the undecided are excluded.

The poll also finds 33% rate the global economy the factor most responsible for last week’s increase in interest rates, with the government on 16%, the pandemic on 17%, the Reserve Bank on 16% and the war in Ukraine on 7%. Personal ratings find Scott Morrison down two on approval to 32% and up three on disapproval to 51%, with Anthony Albanese down one to 30% and up one to 36%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister widens from 40-38 to 41-36. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2311.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,964 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor; Ipsos: Labor 50, Coalition 35, undecided 15”

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  1. My prediction of a 54-46 Newspoll tonight might be conservative or bang on, but definitely movement.

    Ipsos haven’t herded or sat on a poll that people will look askance at, credit to them. Unherded polls ought to have some data points above and below the real result. I don’t really believe in 57-43 but I definitely believe that the Libs are behind significantly. Unlike last time where we had to make excuses not just for the stubbornly sticky polls but for the lack of movement against Labor in bad campaign weeks, for why the seat polling didn’t reflect the national, and even for how the ALP would win on the slim margin shown by the final polls, all the evidence hangs together this time and the behaviours of the Coalition supports that they and their internal polling also believe they are deep in the hole.

  2. Freya Stark says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:45 pm

    Pigs might fly.

    When a poll seems outrageously wrong it usually is.
    Freya darling – when are you coming to Bobawabba? You still have set no date.

    Speaking of Pigs – we will run the “Greasy Pig” competition to mark your visit. Allan Tudge covered in grease just for you.

  3. Fulvio: I think a mistallying by the spreadsheet people is to blame. Also a rogue poll of 3 points outside the margin of error does occur in one in 20 polls.

    Just letting you know that Biden had a 15 point lead in some polls immediately after Trump was diagnosed with COVID-19. Trump lost the popular vote by only 4 points and almost won the electoral college.

    Don’t count your butterflies before your caterpillars even hatch.

  4. We’re seeing the opposite of a narrowing this election, the harrowing. Kroges just misread the auto-cue because his right eye is dodgy.

  5. UpNorth: at this rate mate, mega pissup on May 21, better not get too overexcited, the mood in here can flatten in an instant due to a different poll result or something else.

    Sydney Bludgers, the alcoholically minded ones at least, we’ll have to hang out one day and get very drunk.

  6. Upnorth

    Albo said “I have been underestimated all my life.”

    He will be a Labor hero if he wins. Pretty much anyone who can beat the tories is.

  7. Lol at the Labor voters trolling them by saying the Greens are going to win the election.

  8. BK – 630pm

    We spent a fairly depressing afternoon at the MCG – when the Saints trailed one goal to nine we feared a massacre. It got a bit better after that but our TPP is falling by the week!

  9. Upnorth says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:52 pm
    Obviously John Howard out campaigning has had the desired results.

    The Angel of Death! Drink!

  10. Great Aunt Eunice says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:52 pm

    We’re seeing the opposite of a narrowing this election, the harrowing. Kroges just misread the auto-cue because his right eye is dodgy.
    I have told Mr Nath about Mr Krogers’ eyes after you noticed last week. But I think it will get worse as the campaign drags on.

  11. mj says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:48 pm
    Freya Stark @ #43 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:45 pm

    “Pigs might fly.

    When a poll seems outrageously wrong it usually is.
    Sure, but the trend is not looking like it’s with the LNP.”

    mj you beat me too it.

  12. I see from the IPSOS breakdowns that 12% of Labor voters agree with Mundo about the likely election result.
    God we’re a sad, depressed lot.
    Think Ian Dury – Reasons to be cheerful

  13. Upnorth

    Correction. The quote is

    “I’ve been underestimated my whole life. My whole life has been one whereby I haven’t got a leg up. I have fought for everything that I have got.”

    Gotta love Albo!

  14. There might be more undecided voters than the start of the campaign.

    But if they’re mostly voters that are now having second thoughts about sticking with Scomo?

  15. At this point in time in the 2019 campaign, Ipsos was predicting a 52% 2PP for the ALP.
    Actual ALP 2PP: 48.47%
    Difference: 3.53% overestimated.

    Current Ipsos poll in 2022: 57% 2PP for the ALP, minus 3.53% = 53.47% predicted actual ALP 2PP on election night.

    Ready to bet?….. 🙂

  16. Confessions – Had to dodge those mobile billboards this morning whilst jogging/walking….. They were hanging outside the Catholic church as a service ended.

  17. BK

    We lost to Collingwood on Election Day 2019 at the MCG. But yes at the moment I am prepared to let footy take second place.

    Also – I think your Crows are really on the right track, ahead of most pundits’ trajectories.

  18. To reiterate, these messages of an increase in ‘soft’ votes and undecided voters are coming from the Liberals and Liberal friendly media.

    Provided that this is actual data, the Liberals know which way the ‘soft’ voters are leaning.

    So if they aren’t telling us, it very likely that the soft vote is predominantly Liberal voters that are struggling with their choice.

    Entirely consistent with the swing being on against the incumbent.

  19. Why is this a surprise? Swinging voters decide elections, not rusted ons like most here. We are looking at the demise of the most corrupt, inept, government since federation. Why wouldn’t they lose in a landslide?

  20. Well, the Grayndler election night party this time around is going to be either even more funereal than 2019 or one of the great bashes of all time. Either way, we will be there.

  21. Morrison seemed on the verge of tears when I saw him speaking earlier. Pleading.

    Is the poll really outrageously wrong? According to it the Libs still have more support than their performance warrants.

    Perhaps the dire reality of this government is becoming focussed in people’s minds, media overreach has gotten obvious to the punters, who are annoyed at being so crudely cajoled to vote 1 Smirko, the Clown we all know. Let’s see what the Newspoll says. Imagine 54:46 or worse dropping mid-debate, lol. Can anyone see it narrowing though?

  22. AEC seeking information on unauthorised signage

    Updated: 8 May 2022

    On Friday 6 May the Australian Electoral Commission received reports regarding a range of unauthorised candidate corflute signs appearing across a number of electoral divisions.
    These signs are in breach of commonwealth electoral laws as they do not contain an authorisation statement, a requirement of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 to ensure voters know who is communicating with them.

    The signs depict a range of election candidates in a style that would suggest they have been produced by the candidates depicted. They also feature names and/or logos of political parties that have not formally endorsed the candidates in question – party names that will not feature next to those particular candidates names on ballot papers.

    In some cases, there have also been unauthorised stickers featuring party logos or statements affixed to the signage of other candidates.

    Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers said that while there is freedom of political communication in Australian federal elections, authorisation laws are critical and must be adhered to.
    “This is a very serious matter and we are exploring all avenues possible to get to the source of the signage,” Mr Rogers said.

    The matter has been referred to the Electoral Integrity Assurance Taskforce for investigation. As part of this investigation, information is being sought directly from relevant entities and being examined in an effort to determine the source.

    If anyone has information regarding any of the signage’s placement location, timing of placement or production please provide it via the AEC contact web form. Tip offs can also be submitted anonymously via our dedicated fraud contact options.

  23. Boinzo says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:55 pm

    Upnorth says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:52 pm
    Obviously John Howard out campaigning has had the desired results.

    The Angel of Death! Drink!
    “Just keep drinking”
    Rev. Jim Jones

  24. I am also making plans for election night. I will be camping in a luxury hotel with excellent wifi, my iPad and laptop and some nice Millbrook wine. I will enjoy watching the discomfort, disbelieve and anger amongst the liberal commentators and the liberal aligned hosts as seats fall to the Labor party. I am especially looking forward to Morrison’s concession speech. Will he be humble or throw a tantrum.
    I plan to enjoy the night and when I have locked in all the positive memories then I’ll celebrate and get drunk.

  25. Sharri Markson’s lead story:

    Labor insiders are DISMAYED at Albanese and feel that the election is slipping away.

  26. Not surprising.

    Newspoll prediction 55-45.

    The Liberal campaign has reeked of knowing they are gone.

  27. hazza4257 says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:57 pm


    Correction. The quote is

    “I’ve been underestimated my whole life. My whole life has been one whereby I haven’t got a leg up. I have fought for everything that I have got.”

    Gotta love Albo!
    That’s it cobber. Muchly appreciated.

  28. “sprocket_says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:53 pm
    Where does Freya sit in this graphic?”

    Interesting. Twice the percentage of Coalition voters believe that Labor will win the federal election, than Labor voters believing that the Coalition will win….

    Are the Liberals losing their faith in “miracles”?

  29. Maybe, just maybe, the situation is actually quite simple…
    The LNP is looking for a fourth term…
    It has not, despite its own self-opinionated supporters, been a ‘good’ government…
    Events have been moving against it, as has happened to previous governments….
    Inflation up and more to come, interest rates on the way up and more to come, real wages down with guesswork as to when and if they will go up, shonky deals, Liberal and Nationals at one another’s throats, Liberals and Liberals at one another’s throats, house ownership for young couples only possible with help from Mum and Dad Bank and a PM who is a great carpet salesman but a lousy leader….I think the term to use is…………It’s Time.
    If Labor wins, it will be because the electorate is just fed up with Morrison and his crew and want a change….
    Time will tell…………………

  30. sprocket_ @ Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:53 pm

    Wow! Over 1 in 5 Greens voters think that The Greens will win the election.

    How did Firefox vote so often? 🙂

  31. Come on Albo, wipe the floor with him in the debate tonight. Come on Newspoll get us a 54-46 or better…..then what will the media do?….which catastrophe will they ignore most?…..Lead story tomorrow is Cat stuck up a Tree

  32. God we’re a sad, depressed lot.

    It’s the lot of the Labor voter in Australia most of the time, at least when he/she thinks about politics.

    If Albo pulls it of, he joins a very select group of Labor leaders who have won from Opposition since WW2: Whitlam, Hawke and Rudd.

    He also avoids membership of a less select group: Evatt, Calwall, Beazley, Crean, He_Who_Must_Not_Be_Named and Shorten.

    EDIT: to complete the list, I’ll add Labor Prime Ministers who won re-election (excluding those in the most select group): Chifley, Keating, Gillard (yes, I count 2010 as a win).

  33. And Sportsbet dials are turning. $1.33 for the good guys vs $3.30.

    Newspoll plus a couple of debate beltings and alp backers will soon be penny hoovering !

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