Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor; Ipsos: Labor 50, Coalition 35, undecided 15

A tick in Labor’s favour from the latest Newspoll, along with a more decisive turn in the second Ipsos poll for the campaign.

The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 53-47 to 54-46, their primary vote up a point to 39% with the Coalition down one to 35% and the three minor parties steady, the Greens at 11%, One Nation at 5% and the United Australia Party at 4%. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are deteriorated, his approval down three to 41% and disapproval up four to 55%, while Anthony Albanese is up a point to 41% and down two to 47%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-39 to 44-42.

The poll also found Labor leading 44% to 41% as best party to handle cost-of-living pressures. On this question at least, breakdowns are apparently offered by gender (44% each among men, but 45% to 38% in favour of Labor among women) and age (dramatically more favourable to the Coalition among the old than the young, as usual). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1523.

Also out today in the Financial Review was an Ipsos poll suggesting Labor is headed for a landslide win, with primary votes of Labor 35% (up one since a fortnight ago), Coalition 29% (down three), Greens 12% (steady), One Nation 4% (steady), United Australia Party 3% (steady) others 9% (up two) and 7% undecided (down one).

The poll offers two interpretations of two-party preferred, one of which asks respondents who support minor parties or independents to either state a preference between the Coalition and Labor or remain uncommitted, which has Labor on 50% and the Coalition on 35%, with the remaining 15% being those uncommitted on either the primary vote or the preferences question. The other allocates distributes minor party and independent preferences as per the 2019 election result, which has Labor on 52% and the Coalition on 40% with 8% identified as undecided. The accompanying report notes this translates into a 57-43 lead for Labor if the undecided are excluded.

The poll also finds 33% rate the global economy the factor most responsible for last week’s increase in interest rates, with the government on 16%, the pandemic on 17%, the Reserve Bank on 16% and the war in Ukraine on 7%. Personal ratings find Scott Morrison down two on approval to 32% and up three on disapproval to 51%, with Anthony Albanese down one to 30% and up one to 36%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister widens from 40-38 to 41-36. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2311.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,964 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor; Ipsos: Labor 50, Coalition 35, undecided 15”

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  1. From the previous thread:

    somethinglikethat @ #794 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 6:21 pm

    We all know it won’t be 57/43 on the day.

    But won’t it be great if the swing is large enough to remove two cancers from Australian politics: Dutton and Frydenberg. Those two top my wishlist.

    I’ll be closely watching Cook, a la 2007. 😀

  2. Definitely too wild to be accurate but promising if it’s representative of a clear lead, albeit a bit smaller. Hopefully Newspoll can just bring us a little more back to Earth (but still have good numbers for Labor.)

    If the numbers are actually woeful for the Coalition, the next fortnight is going to get really, really ugly. Buckle in.

  3. As per the previous thread, find it hard to accept this is the state of play………
    Has any party taken 57-43 into an election 2 weeks out?
    Gee, I hope Ipsos have their methodology somewhere near the mark, or the polling industry, again, will cop a whacking……………………..
    This outcome makes Morgan look conservative……
    However, with the debate on tonight I am sure Mr Morrison would have preferred something a little better to take in with him…….

  4. “The Financial Review shakes up the polling landscape with an Ipsos poll that suggests Labor is headed for a landslide win”…

    … and this is becoming quite a realistic scenario, unless something hyper-uber-ultra-mega dramatic happens in the next two weeks.

    Never forget that at this point in time in 2019, the 2PP had shrunk to within the margin of error (51-52% for the ALP)…. 57% ALP may be a bit too optimistic (a reverse-miracle!), but 54% is a real possibility.

  5. Fabulous Phil Coorey – Labor “could govern in it’s own right” on these numbers.

    Could govern?!??? Phil, mate. Have a breather champ.

  6. Well, if Newspoll goes in the same direction more or less, panic stations at Morrison/Murdoch HQ.

    57/43 brings into the picture seats like Deakin, Casey, Ryan, Flynn, Forde, Sturt, Bennelong, and that’s just Lib vs Labor, what about Libs vs Independents?

  7. The 2007 election – Newspoll a week out from the election of 3,600 voters in 18 of the Coalition’s most marginal seats revealed an ALP 54–46

    This may be a similar result to 2007

  8. Yeah I also saw Coorey saying Labor “could govern in their own right” on these numbers, as if 57% 2PP isn’t a complete and utter wipeout. It won’t be the election day result but what kind of analysis is that?

  9. Itep
    From last thread

    “ ltep says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:10 pm
    Primaries of 29 and 35 respectively. That’d be pretty catastrophic for the Coalition you would think if it was actually reflected on the day.”

    That will set the cat amongst the pigeons in Murdochracy Land.

  10. @Woke – this is the kind of Twitter over-excitement I’m very wary of.

    Did anyone actually see or record this? It would certainly be odd for Ten to have the scoop on NP, I wonder if someone just misunderstood IPSOS, assuming it was Newspoll?

  11. If we conclude that ipsos is just another Morgan at this point, the poll changes nothing and we can keep our heads down until polling day.

  12. Wow, it’ll sure as hell be interesting what number Newspoll spits out tonight, you would think it’ll be something like 54 or maybe even 55.

  13. In 2019 there was clearly a large soft vote that broke against Shorten in the actual booth.

    The soft vote is possibly larger this time on top of a solid move from the Libs to the ALP and Teals.

    So yeah it could shock us again.

    But the shock really could go both ways.

    Who knows how a few million voters will make a few million decisions, but it’s not impossible at all that a huge number of soft Lib voters actually do desert them this time. It’s happened in plenty of State elections.

    It’s natural to assume this is ott. But it’s not guaranteed.

  14. Coorey said on Adelaide radio last week that Morrison had clearly won the campaign so far and that Labor insiders were becoming agitated. That night he was on Sky suggesting a hung parliament was the most obvious outcome based on his own Resolve poll showing 54-46.

    The bloke is on the take and falling fast.

  15. BK says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:16 pm
    On the strength of the IPSOS poll I just poured out a nice Australian whiskey!

    I don’t drink BK but do have one for me as well good chap.

  16. jt1983 @ #19 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 6:36 pm

    @Woke – this is the kind of Twitter over-excitement I’m very wary of.

    Did anyone actually see or record this? It would certainly be odd for Ten to have the scoop on NP, I wonder if someone just misunderstood IPSOS, assuming it was Newspoll?

    PVO….who is CH10 would have some insight to NP numbers.

  17. Phil Coorey’s tap to all those Morrison Govt leaks is about to be turned off, his influence in the Press gallery would wane under a Labor Government. His fault really for being such a Morrison partisan hack.

  18. ”…then says there are still many undecided voters.”

    Well he would say that wouldn’t he.

    On the subject of posters / corflutes, on the Central Coast today the blue Liberal ones were by far the must numerous. There were few red Labor ones about and a few yellow UAP and a couple for One Nation. One telegraph pole on Mann’s road had both a Liberal and a UAP poster, the next one had Labor and UAP.

  19. @sonar – this is true… but we’ve seen QUITE a few of these Chinese whisper events via Twitter.

    So unless I see/hear something, I just don’t trust anything on Twitter, lol. But if someone heard/saw/recorded 10 News, happy to be corrected 🙂

  20. Given this Ipsos result, and Morrison’s masterstroke appointment in the Deves affair, where do you think Ipsos went wrong in its polling methodology, Freya?

  21. Fixed that for you.

    Evans says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:38 pm
    The tap to Coorey, Uhlmann, Speers, Jennett, Kelly, Benson and Shanahan (among others) for all those Morrison Govt leaks is about to be turned off, their influence in the Press gallery would wane to nothing under a Labor Government. Their fault really for being such Morrison partisan hacks.

    EDIT: Also that dipshit Probyn.

  22. Better be a huuuuge dirt file!

    But Hirsty may be thinking that with polling sentiment being what is seemingly is ATM, that the dirt may not be believed, despite the best efforts of Ullmann, Coorey & co … and might even backfire. Spectacularly!

    Can ScoMo emulate the Canak tory, Kim Campbell? Election miracle indeed!

  23. So are we all going to sh*t the bed next Sunday night when the Ipsos isn’t an outlier and returns to trend?

  24. Morrison has been saying “We’re not at push comes to shove, yet.”

    I think they might just about be at that point now and I don’t think the Australian voters like what they’ve seen regarding Morrison.

  25. “ Desperate times call for roving billboards.

    And not a Liberal logo in sight.”

    There is something decidedly Pythonesque about that photo, isn’t there?

  26. Confessions says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:44 pm
    PvO suggested there are more undecided voters now than there were at the start of the campaign.

    PvO also thinks Christian Porter was hard done by. He can get in the bin.

  27. Oh I am enjoying this. Not over till the fat lady sings, but I am enjoying this.

    “I’ve been underated all my life” – I seem to recall Albo saying.

  28. I don’t believe it’s 57/43 but the trend looks like it’s either holding or towards the alp.

    If the newspoll has improved for the a or held steady then that’s a great sign the lnp campaign isn’t working.

  29. “Confessionssays:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:41 pm
    Desperate times call for roving billboards.

    And not a Liberal logo in sight.”….

    Yep, the Liberals are desperately abandoning the toxic “Liberal brand”…. What they haven’t realised yet, is that they are also personally toxic!

  30. There is something decidedly Pythonesque about that photo, isn’t there?

    It looks pretty desperate.

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