Another day, another assortment of news relevant to the federal election horse race. Note also the post below by Adrian Beaumont on today’s local elections in the UK. Here goes:
• The Australian reports Vivian Lobo, Liberal National Party candidate for the Brisbane seat of Lilley, lives in the up-market suburb of Windsor in the neighbouring electorate of Brisbane, but is enrolled within the electorate in a “run-down” and “obviously deserted” property in Lilley’s Everton Park. Lobo told the paper he had “signed a lease in Everton Park with the intention to move in straight away”, but had been “delayed” due to campaign commitments. The Labor-held seat is the most marginal in Queensland, being held by Anika Wells on a margin of 0.6%. Making a false claim for enrolment carries a maximum penalty of 12 months’ imprisonment.
• The Jacqui Lambie Network is directing preferences to Bridget Archer, who holds Bass for the Liberals on a 0.4% margin, but to Labor in the neighbouring seats of Braddon and Lyons, respectively held for the Liberals by Gavin Pearce on 3.1% and Labor by Brian Mitchell on 5.2%. Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports “strategists are privately confident that Labor will hold Lyons”; Max Maddison of The Australian reports Liberal sources were “confident of holding Braddon”. Labor has the JLN second on its Senate how-to-vote card, and the JLN has Labor third behind Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
• Matt Wade of the Age/Herald reports on a University of New South Wales analysis identifying seats where substantial numbers of mortgage payers are in financial stress. Top of the list is La Trobe in outer Melbourne on 72.3%, followed by Werriwa in Sydney (Labor 5.5%) on 70.7%, the Hunter region seat of Paterson (Labor 5.0%) on 65.0%, Pearce in northern Perth (Liberal 5.2%) on 63.2%, Bass in northern Tasmania (Liberal 0.4%) on 62.9% and Greenway in Sydney (Labor 2.8%) on 62.6%.
• Paul Garvey of The Australian notes Labor is “using specifically tailored advertising for the WA market” (I can report that not one Labor advertisement I have seen on Perth television could have been screened nationally), and that the party it outspending the Liberals on Facebook advertising in the state by three to one, “as the central ALP cedes control to the state party office and makes a major commitment to digital advertising”.
@Felix go to Facebook Ad Library and look for a group called Stand Up for WA
Jonathon Kearsley on 9 this morning struggling to explain how it wasn’t a gotcha question and Albo still needs to prove he is across the detail of his policies … unconvincingly.
“All will be much clearer once all the votes are counted.”
Very good ltep. Reminds of when Bill Lawry used to say “In order to score runs you have to occupy the crease.”
Someone should ask Kearsley to recite the 12 principles of the journalists code of ethics.
It’s not impossible that Albanese could be experiencing some minor brain fog post covid. Many do.
A few more details on the ACT Senate poll.. Redbridge n=1064, April 23/24
, MOE 3.9
– ALP Gallagher – 27
– LNP Seselja – 25
– IND Pocock – 21
– GRN – TGG – 11
– Palmer – 6
– IND Rubinstein 6
– unsure – 8
The polling shows Mr Pocock would receive the highest percentage of second preferences at 24 per cent, while Senator Gallagher would get 23 per cent and Senator Seselja would get 13 per cent.
Quota is 33.3
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7725702/new-polls-show-zed-seselja-in-big-re-election-trouble/?cs=14329
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/06/nobody-home/#comment-3892898
Let’s see if polls are accurate
More logic overcoming polling reality, even former PM Fizza seems to be talking up non Fibs/ Nats alternatives (Tonicchio probably stuck too much to convictions, Spinocchio doesn’t seem to have any)
They don’t do journalism (just Nine corporate media, low tech at that, though state media doesn’t seem much better, check recent Q&A, unlike independent media), they are not observing the field, but are on the field
The Fibs/ Nats don’t seem to have conducive policies to advance Australia, fair, be it governance, Wuflu, climate, social support before corporate welfare, powershift …
I can’t remember who came up with it but it’s time for orgs protected by gov and media to be turfed out for a bit, capital only flowing up, more social and less liberal democracy, living standards for labour going down isn’t any more sustainable in Australia from 1788, any more than France before 1789
Going on Paul Murray doesn’t act as a spoiler for Q&A, Morrison would have got a bigger audience in a McDonalds.
Clive James was originally a Vivian – then ‘Gone With The Wind’ came out.
His name was spelt “Vyvyan” though. Ditto Vyvyan Holland OBE, son of Oscar Wilde:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vyvyan_Holland
Interesting ACT Senate polling. Senate polling has a bad track record, but it’ll be interesting to see how it goes. I’ll certainly be voting Pocock.
I think the Albo ‘not being across the details’ stories are just media clickbait for Coalition voters grasping at straws.
The biggest effect it has is on the media’s influence on voters, they aren’t talking about policy issues that are important to undecided voters, so it has delaying effect on resolving undecideds.
Isaac Vivian Richards was no pussy
Bellwether @ #55 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 7:41 am
Yes entirely possible,but of course all’s fair in love and war and no holds barred…And that’s just the MSM journos.
Jaeger says:
“Ditto Vyvyan Holland OBE, son of Oscar Wilde”
To spell Vivian with one Y is unfortunate.
To spell it with two seems like carelessness.
One final titbit from the ACT poll
In the ACT, Climate 200 has given seed money to both Mr Pocock and Professor Rubenstein, a constitutional expert and author, to assist their campaigns.
The Redbridge poll also shows Gallagher below quota, although you’d expect enough Rubinstein and Greens votes to flow to her rather than Pocock to avoid some kind of order of elimination that elects Pocock and Zed. I think.
Viv Richards real name is Smokin’ Joe
https://www.cricketcountry.com/criclife/viv-richards-sings-in-jon-farriss-smokin-joe-501083
ltep, Senate polling does indeed have a bad track record.
But in the particular case of the ACT, with just two seats in play and three closely-competing candidates head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the field, much of the complexity and uncertainty is reduced.
Malcolm Turnbull with an intervention…. Not happy with Scott Morrison’s bastardry towards the NSW Liberal Party
Washington: Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has encouraged Australians to vote for independents, a month after he declined to say if he would vote for Liberal MP Dave Sharma in his old seat of Wentworth.
In an intervention likely to infuriate the ex-colleagues Turnbull led to victory in 2016, the former Liberal leader has entered the fray in a speech concluding that “even if the members of a political party cannot escape from the thrall of the dominant faction, their traditional supporters in the electorate can do so by voting for an independent who has a real chance of success”.
Due to address the Washington Harvard Club at 8am Friday (AEST), Turnbull is expected to say that the Liberal Party had once been a broad church of liberal and conservative traditions, but since his “deposition in 2018”, moderate voices had become increasingly marginalised, “especially on the toxically controversial issue of climate change where the political right, supported by [Rupert] Murdoch’s media, have opposed effective action for many years”.
In a copy of the speech provided to The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, he notes there is also growing grassroots support for small-l liberal independent candidates who are typically progressive on climate and social issues and are now threatening his former colleagues in once-safe Liberal seats.
“In many respects this may be the most interesting part of the whole election, because if more of these ‘teal’ independents win, it will mean the capture of the Liberal Party will be thwarted by direct, democratic action from voters,” Turnbull will tell the club, whose members are made up of Harvard University alumni and associates.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-encourages-voters-to-back-independents-to-thwart-liberal-factions-20220505-p5aiui.html
“Centaur21says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 7:27 am
What a sad state of affairs. The buffoon vs the babbling fool. Is this really the best Australia has?”…
No, that’s NOT a real reflection of the two leaders. Note that each of the endless blunders, brain farts, lies of Scott Morrison is quoted by the media once at the most, and then they all quickly move on. Hence, there is little chance that the memory of all that crap is retained in the brain of the voters. With Albo (or any other leader of the ALP) we have the interest rates slip still being broadcast….many days after it happened… Expect the same with the NDIS points…. and also expect repetition of the combined interest rates+NDIS that will happen in the regular news programs on TV, not as part of official Liberal party propaganda….
Voters who don’t realise such a blatant media manipulation are part of the problem, not part of the solution.
Election campaign’s ‘gotcha’ questions are ugly journalism but hazards for Albanese and Morrison
The Conversation
/ By Michelle Grattan
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-06/election-2022-albanese-morrison-gotcha-journalism-gaffes/101042428
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Get your teeth into this lot!
Farah Tomazin reports that Malcolm Turnbull, in a speech about to be delivered in the US, will encourage Australians to vote for independents, a month after he declined to say if he would vote for Liberal MP Dave Sharma in his old seat of Wentworth. This will get the hounds – and The Australian – running!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-encourages-voters-to-back-independents-to-thwart-liberal-factions-20220505-p5aiui.html
After spending a lot of time talking about the gotch journalism we have been seeing, David Crowe concludes that “right now Albanese has the cautious pace of the contender who thinks he will keep his lead if he keeps his calm.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-the-scrappy-contender-refuses-to-duck-or-weave-20220505-p5aitj.html
Waleed Aly thinks rate rises may prove a pressing political problem for Morrison.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/rate-rises-may-prove-a-pressing-political-problem-for-morrison-20220505-p5ainj.html
The Canberra Times tells us that the ACT Senate race is pointing towards a boilover, with two new polls commissioned by climate-focused fundraising group Climate 200 showing ACT Liberal senator Zed Seselja and independent candidate David Pocock virtually neck and neck.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7725702/new-polls-show-zed-seselja-in-big-re-election-trouble/?cs=14329
Anthony Albanese has bemoaned the fact the 2022 campaign is more focused on “soundbites rather than philosophies and values” – a trend he says is alienating voters and boosting support for political disrupters. Katherine Murphy and Josh Butler writes that the Labor leader appeared solo on the ABC’s Q+A program on Thursday night to field questions from the audience, while Scott Morrison fronted another program on Sky News at the same time.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/05/anthony-albanese-bemoans-campaign-focus-on-soundbites-rather-than-values-after-forgetting-ndis-detail
Michelle Grattan says that ‘gotcha’ questions are ugly journalism but hazards for leaders.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-gotcha-questions-are-ugly-journalism-but-hazards-for-leaders-182538
The Prime Minister has labelled the Opposition’s warnings about the rollout of the card for pensioners as “a despicable lie” and demanded that “the Labor Party should stop frightening pensioners”. But, writes Michelle Pini, there is every reason to suspect that, just like Medicare, for example, the Morrison Government’s assurances that it does not intend to implement the cashless welfare card for all income recipients should not be trusted.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/fact–its-not-labor-that-needs-to-stop-frightening-pensioners,16326
The Coalition is a bit like the polar bear on a shrinking ice floe. This election is as much about not losing voters as it is about trying to win new ones, says Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/last-two-weeks-a-goalmouth-scramble-for-morrison-20220504-p5aih5
Scott Morrison insists he can come from behind in the final two weeks to beat Labor and says the current poll numbers are the softest they have been for many elections, writes Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/polls-are-soft-we-can-still-win-pm-20220504-p5aigz
Scott Morrison is reading off the Bob Hawke playbook. It’s not working, says Dennis Atkins.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/05/05/scott-morrison-bob-hawke/
The editorial in the AFR says that Scott Morrison does not have a core set of political goals he can point to in order to repel the attacks of an equally ideas-free Labor Party and it tells us that with no singular focus of his own, Mr Morrison now risks death by a thousand cuts when he reaches election day.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/pm-without-purpose-faces-death-by-a-thousand-cuts-20220505-p5aiol
Oh, for the stability of a ‘hung parliament’, yearns Alan Kohler. The Liberal MPs in danger of losing their seats to independents, backed by a riotously melancholy chorus at News Corp, are warning of wild consequences if some of the MPs on whom the next PM relies for his numbers are not subject to the discipline of the party whips. Which is ironic given how much of the past nine years has been characterised by indiscipline and chaos.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/05/05/hung-parliament-alan-kohler/
Monique Ryan, the independent challenger for the crucial Liberal seat of Kooyong, launched a piercing attack on Treasurer Josh Frydenberg at a debate on Thursday, accusing him of being the “Treasurer for NSW,” and his government of doing nothing good for almost a decade, write Paul Sakkal and Rachael Dexter.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/treasurer-for-nsw-independent-goes-on-the-attack-against-frydenberg-in-kooyong-debate-20220505-p5aipb.html
Chip Le Grand was there too.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/treasurer-for-nsw-independent-goes-on-the-attack-against-frydenberg-in-kooyong-debate-20220505-p5aipb.html
As was Carla Wahlquist who writes that Josh Frydenberg is in trouble, and he knows it. Three weeks before polling day, billboards asking voters to “keep Josh” started appearing in his Melbourne electorate of Kooyong.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/06/josh-frydenberg-pleads-with-unhappy-liberal-voters-to-stick-by-him-as-pressure-in-kooyong-grows
Anthony Galloway thinks that, at the NPC yesterday, in 15 seconds, Labor’s defence spokesman Brendan O’Connor delivered a better attack on the Coalition’s record on national security than anyone else in the party has managed over the past nine years. O’Connor laid out a litany of defence capability decisions taken over the past nine years that have resulted in billions of dollars wasted, and then turned to the greatest national security failure under the Coalition government: the decision in 2015 to allow the Port of Darwin to be leased to a Chinese company for 99 years.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-more-across-the-facts-but-o-connor-laid-the-best-blow-20220505-p5aivm.html
Peter Dutton attempted to shoot the messenger at the NPC yesterday, branding the Guardian a trashy publication and denying he had ever hung the chief of defence out to dry on the Brereton inquiry reforms. The Guardian responds here and challenges Dutton to provide the public with a more comprehensive update on what action you are taking to implement the Brereton report.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/05/when-confronted-by-his-inaction-on-the-brereton-reforms-peter-dutton-attempts-to-shoot-the-messenger
Our leaders are blindly dancing on the edge of calamity sternly refusing to look at the quagmire opening below them. The blindfold that Morrison has firmly tied around his own eyes, and which Albanese has failed to pull from his, is our obsession with a long term cap on tax at 23.9% of GDP – the third lowest in the OECD just after the US and Ireland, and less than half that of Europe and Scandinavia, writes Roger Bealw who reckons we are dancing on the edge of calamity.
https://johnmenadue.com/dancing-on-the-edge-of-calamity/
David Crowe writes that Anthony Albanese has vowed to revive a “spirit of consensus” between unions and employers to lift wages and profits in an economic pitch to industry leaders that emphasised his willingness to tackle major reform if he wins power at the election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/spirit-of-consensus-albanese-holds-out-promise-of-economic-reform-to-lift-wages-20220505-p5aixx.html
Peter Beattie opines that the leader who builds a Hawke or Howard umbrella will win the election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-leader-who-builds-a-hawke-or-howard-umbrella-will-win-20220505-p5aioe.html
Michael Yabsley looks at the phenomenon of “polite voters” who, at the last minute, change their votes away from how they responded to polling questions.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pollsters-beware-polite-voters-they-can-turn-in-the-booth-20220505-p5air5.html
We have in Scott Morrison a Liberal Party leader who “sold” himself to the nation on the basis of “stopping the boats” and dehumanising, then indefinitely imprisoning, asylum seekers. Now this same “leader” is stirring transphobic bigotry, using the lowest means to try to again secure the nation’s highest office, writes Stephanie Dowrick about the “questionable Deves” in leafy Warringah
https://johnmenadue.com/questionable-deves-in-leafy-warringah/
Voters in the nation’s three biggest states have turned against the Coalition since the 2019 election, but Labor has not made up the ground, writes David Crowe.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-turn-against-coalition-in-key-states-but-labor-still-weak-in-queensland-20220504-p5aimq.html
The invisible minister: Where is cabinet backbencher Alan Tudge, ask James Massola and Sumeyya Ilanbey.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-invisible-minister-where-is-cabinet-backbencher-alan-tudge-20220505-p5aiq5.html
Andrew Podger lays out three things that the Prime Minister must focus upon to establish the broad framework and ground rules according to which the Government will work with the public service, and the Minister for the Public Service must be ready to give advice on how these should be done to ensure maximum benefit to the Government and the public service.
https://johnmenadue.com/if-i-were-the-minister-for-the-public-service-in-a-new-government/
“Do Labor or the Coalition care about Australia’s women?”, wonders Jenna Price
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7726067/do-either-of-our-major-parties-care-about-women/?cs=14258
The Fed and RBA have finally hit ‘lift-off’ but may have waited too long, writes Stephen Bartholomeusz.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-fed-and-rba-have-finally-hit-lift-off-but-may-have-waited-too-long-20220505-p5aipn.html
If you normally vote for the Greens or you are a traditional ALP supporter in a blue-ribbon Liberal seat such as Goldstein, Wentworth, Kooyong, Mackellar or North Sydney, at this election you face a choice between voting for your preferred party candidate or removing the Morrison Government from power, writes Scott Burchill in this essay on strategic voting.
https://johnmenadue.com/tactical-voting-and-independents/
According to Anthony Galloway, Scott Morrison stopped talking to Manasseh Sogavare over concerns the Solomon Islands Prime Minister would become volatile and misrepresent the conversation.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-stopped-talking-to-sogavare-over-concerns-about-solomons-leader-s-behaviour-20220505-p5aivp.html
Carrie Fellner reports that an inquiry into NSW regional hospitals found doctors and nurses are operating in a “culture of fear” and are frightened to speak up about critical shortages.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/inquiry-condemns-culture-of-fear-in-nsw-hospitals-calls-for-funding-review-20220505-p5aion.html
And she tells us about some of the horror stories that the inquiry came to hear.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/horror-stories-and-damning-findings-from-hospital-inquiry-but-no-urgency-from-mps-20220505-p5aixf.html
The SMH declares that people in the bush must not be given second-class medical care.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/people-in-the-bush-must-not-be-given-second-class-medical-care-20220505-p5aix9.html
Daniel Andrews has been questioned in a secret anti-corruption hearing over his association with a property developer under investigation for allegedly corrupt land deals.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/daniel-andrews-grilled-in-secret-amid-anticorruption-probe-over-links-to-property-developer/news-story/a630ec6eb0d17743a72351c5c2a47c1c
A senior NSW Liberal minister, Rob Stokes, has described the temporary cut to the tax on petrol as “absolutely nuts”, arguing it benefits large global oil companies and undermines a transition to electric vehicles and spending on public projects.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/absolutely-nuts-liberal-nsw-minister-questions-cut-to-federal-petrol-tax-20220505-p5aiq0.html
Adam Morton asks, “Australia’s biggest industrial players are focusing on climate solutions – why isn’t the political debate?” He points out that energy companies, banks and regulators alike agree high-polluting coal-fired power is increasingly economically and environmentally unviable – and not necessary. Aemo, in a blueprint for an optimal power grid, has suggested coal plants could exit the system much faster than current announcements suggest.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/05/australias-biggest-industrial-players-are-focusing-on-climate-solutions-why-isnt-the-political-debate
Tuesday’s interest rate rise means homeowners are now going to have to deal with something they have not had to deal with for more than 11 years. Not only that, but there is also the prospect of mortgage repayments never again being as low as they are now. It means housing affordability is going to become much worse, explains Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/may/05/more-interest-rate-hikes-are-coming-and-housing-affordability-is-about-to-get-crunched
Victoria’s minister for women, Gabrielle Williams, has described a Facebook post by Liberal MP Bernie Finn as “deplorable” after he wrote that he was “praying” for abortion to be banned in Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/05/victorian-upper-house-mps-post-about-abortion-described-as-deplorable
Julia Banks writes that Victorian Liberals care more about their party than they do for their communities.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/05/06/liberals-victoria-julia-banks/
Here they go again! A charity has demanded a Queensland Liberal MP stop using a testimonial in promotional material, saying it did not consent to its use. In a pamphlet titled “What are locals really saying about Trevor Evans”, the MP quotes from three charities – the Pyjama Foundation, Gingercloud Foundation and Arts Access – with the former two also quoted on his website.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/05/liberal-mp-uses-charitys-testimonial-on-flyer-distributed-during-election-campaign-without-its-consent
Climate change is once again a hot topic in the federal election, but unlike 2019 when the Coalition waged a scare campaign on the cost of Labor’s more ambitious emissions reduction goals, this time around parties are vying for bragging rights over who has committed to the most meaningful action, writes Mike Foley.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-hot-will-the-world-get-under-political-parties-climate-plans-20220505-p5aisf.html
Several audience members walked out of a candidates’ forum in the southern Sydney seat of Hughes on Wednesday evening after the maverick MP Craig Kelly labelled mandatory vaccination in workplaces “an abuse of human rights” and “a very dark period in Australia’s history”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/05/election-forum-walkouts-after-craig-kelly-labels-vaccine-mandates-an-abuse-of-human-rights
Labor is promising more money for childcare, arguing it will pay for itself by increasing women’s participation in the workforce. But demands for free universal childcare are getting political traction, writes Jennifer Hewett who wonders if the rich should have their childcare subsidised.
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/should-the-rich-have-their-child-care-subsidised-20220505-p5aitr
Scott Morrison is asking the Australian people “Who do you trust?” – a gutsy approach from a man who has earned the sobriquet ‘Liar from the Shire’, writes Kaye Lee.
https://theaimn.com/who-do-you-trust-asks-the-liar-from-the-shire/
Matt Dalgleish writes that there are three things agricultural businesses need to watch carefully in 2022: Australian interest rates, the US economy, and China’s lockdowns
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/may/06/despite-predictions-of-stagflation-australias-rural-industries-dont-need-to-panic-yet
The World Health Organisation is estimating that nearly 15 million people were killed either by the coronavirus or by its impact on overwhelmed health systems in the past two years. The estimate is more than double the official death toll of 6 million. Most of the fatalities were in South-East Asia, Europe and the Americas.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/true-covid-19-death-toll-close-to-15-million-says-who-20220505-p5aj08.html
The new ACCC chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb faces the first real test of her attitude to possible anti-competitive behaviour in a concentrated market thanks to a Qantas takeover of Alliance Aviation, explains the AFR’s Chanticleer.
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/qantas-deal-test-s-accc-s-new-chair-20220505-p5aivz
The Anglican Diocese of Sydney – which runs Shore, Kings, Abbotsleigh and St Catherine’s – now requires principals to pledge they believe marriage is between a man and a woman. And Jordan Baker tells us the edict hasn’t gone down well with several of the principals.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/i-am-livid-anglican-principals-fury-at-edict-against-gay-marriage-20220505-p5aiss.html
Britain faces a grim double-whammy from double-digit inflation and a shrinking economy later this year, the Bank of England warned.
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/uk-faces-double-digit-inflation-and-shrinking-economy-boe-warns-20220506-p5aj0b
Republicans in Louisiana have advanced a bill to make abortion a crime of murder, as a draft decision that would end abortion rights continues to spark nationwide protests and police in Washington raised “non-scalable” fences around the supreme court. There is no hope!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/05/louisiana-abortion-bill-murder-republicans
Further attempts to restrict rights should be expected following state abortion bans. And they won’t be limited to women in the US, warns The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/05/the-guardian-view-on-what-follows-roe-v-wade-it-doesnt-stop-here
Here’s more on this issue. It says the attack on Roe v Wade has roots in well-funded organisations whose tentacles have spread across the Atlantic
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/05/us-far-right-abortion-laws-europe-roe-v-wade
And George Grundy says that the fact that a judicial decision to overrule Roe v Wade was widely expected does nothing to reduce the profound shockwaves now that it seems to be here.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/reports-roe-v-wade-will-be-overturned-should-alarm-us,16321
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Cath Wilcox
Matt Golding
Mark David
Peter Broelman
Fiona Katauskas
Jim Pavlidis
Andrew Dyson
John Shakespeare
Mark Knight
From the US
C@tmommasays:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 6:30 am
“Vivian is usually a name posh parents give to their sons.”
I immediately thought of Adrian Edmondson’s Vyvyan character in The Young Ones:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLwc9lbJlIQ
Sceptic @ #49 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 7:29 am
I laid down with dogs and now I’ve gotten up with fleas?
“sprocket_says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 7:57 am
Malcolm Turnbull with an intervention…. Not happy with Scott Morrison’s bastardry towards the NSW Liberal Party”
Well, Turnbull and others have clearly seized the moment by perfectly understanding the need for Teal candidates in solid Liberal (and some Nationals) seats. Finally, anti-Scomo, anti-Dutton etc. liberals will have a clear choice that’s neither ALP or Greens.
”
Tomsays:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 7:16 am
Oliver Sutton @ #35 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 7:14 am
C@tmomma says:
“Vivian is usually a name posh parents give to their sons”
Fans of The Young Ones?
Or Cricket – Sir Vivian Richards.
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Isn’t for women spelled ‘Vivien’? For example Vivien Leigh.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivien_Leigh
Justin for men, Justine for women,
Expat says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 7:29 am
Just to reiterate – it’s TWO Lib candidates. Robbie Beaton (Isaacs) should cop the same penalty as Lobo.
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Beaton might be able to muddy the waters enough to at least make the AEC think twice about a prosecution. At least he (previously) lived in Mordialloc and argues (unconvincingly) that he was still staying at a room in the Bridge hotel, that he previously owned. It might be enough to make the AEC decide not to pursue it – though I hope they do, and suspect Beaton’s case would be very weak.
Deliciously, Beaton’s tagline on the few Liberal posters I’ve seen around the place is that he’ll never take Isaacs for granted. Claiming to live in the electorate while actually living somewhere else, doesn’t quite jive with that.
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Centaur21says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 7:27 am
What a sad state of affairs. The buffoon vs the babbling fool. Is this really the best Australia has?
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There are many other parties or independents. Vote for them to your heart’s content.
Thanks BK…
Ven – yes Vivien is another variation. I have one in my extended family (named after Vivien Leigh) and occasionally have to remind myself how to spell it
How are you feeling about the election ven? Perky?
Some interesting data from Michelle Grattan’s column:
Thanks sprocket for the extra detail.
So, assuming that poll is accurate, lets see how it shakes out.
Simplfying to:
– ALP Gallagher – 27
– LNP Seselja – 25
– IND Pocock – 21
– Other – 23
– unsure – 8
Assuming the unsures break according to the split of the sures
– ALP Gallagher – 29.25
– LNP Seselja – 27.08
– IND Pocock – 22.75
– Other – 24.92
Now, it’s technically possible that Other could consolidate behind a single candidate and get ahead of Pocock. But it won’t. It would have to be Greens getting virtually everything, and they won’t get that many especially from Palmer. So, we basically just eliminate Others until the top three become two.
Assigning preferences according to the 24, 23 and 13 split from Sprocket (and taking the assumption that people will only number two boxes), Galagher is first to quota, at which point the votes are
– ALP Gallagher – 33.34
– LNP Seselja – 29.39
– IND Pocock – 27.01
– Other – 7.15
Then the final count would be
– LNP Seselja – 31.70
– IND Pocock – 31.28
You’d have to hand it at that point to Pocock – 2nd preferences basically closed the entire 1st preference gap. 3rd through 6th preferences would flow stronger to Pocock than to Zed, just like 2nd preferences did.
My annoyance with the most recent gotcha is that the journalist involved seems more concerned about making a name for himself and seemingly his career with than the reporting of the election. Like Anthony answered what they want to do with the NDIS yet he is making the story about himself which shows he is a poor journo imo
‘Brendan O’Connor delivered a better attack on the Coalition’s record on national security than anyone else in the party has managed over the past nine years. O’Connor laid out a litany of defence capability decisions taken over the past nine years that have resulted in billions of dollars wasted, and then turned to the greatest national security failure under the Coalition government: the decision in 2015 to allow the Port of Darwin to be leased to a Chinese company for 99 years.’
Exactly the sort of thing which should be packaged up for a campaign ad pronto.
Along with Chalmers’ tax-takedown of Frying turd at CPG this week.
Do it.
Do it now.
Get it in front of voters ears and eyeballs.
The media ain’t gonna.
Has it been figured out yet who the Gotcha journalist was and what media outlet he came from?
So after a week of the Murdoch tabloids front pages – the only thing many people glance at in passing on their way to the sports pages – ignoring the election altogether, we have some movement.
Like a drunk lurching towards a free drink, Murdoch goons are partly reverting to type. Disappointed that no cartoons of Albo have made an appearance yet…
Though the Melbourne chapter of the cabal thought the gotcha was too stupid a thing to beat up…
And another trotter-note, Palmer appears to stopped advertising in the Daily ToiletPaper..
If Zed were to lose the ACT Senate seat it could be key to the ability of a new government to pass legislation.
Of course the ACT scenario has been talked about in many elections past and come to nothing, but you’d think this is one of the best chances for it to actually happen.
I thought this a very complimentary headline for Albo in the SMH. For David Crowe’s article. A lot of + messages in there.
I know someone who could give us chapter and verse about this 😉
The Canberra Times tells us that the ACT Senate race is pointing towards a boilover, with two new polls commissioned by climate-focused fundraising group Climate 200 showing ACT Liberal senator Zed Seselja and independent candidate David Pocock virtually neck and neck.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7725702/new-polls-show-zed-seselja-in-big-re-election-trouble/?cs=14329
Things you see every 3 years on PB:
1) The Liberals losing the second ACT senate seat
2) The media figures overheard saying “our side ” won myth
3) Blue Ribbon Liberal seats / Doctor’s wives/ teal independents this time is different.
4) Posters who know for sure – because they have seen internal polling
5) Newspoll is rigged and biased whenever there is what is perceived as a bad poll for Labor.
According to 5AA Adelaide, the Labor campaign is in “damage control” and are fear the “campaign is derailed”.
Strategic voting in the ACT Senate race to eject Z might be in order… I am assuming here that Labor can’t win two quotas ~ 66.7%.
Vivians
My thoughts turned to Vivian Stanshall, Bonzo Dog Doo-dah band, ‘I’m the Urban Spaceman’, and the MC on Tubular Bells. His persona of an upper class twit defied his East End London background, where his hated father taught him to speak proper. His ‘Vivian’ was self chosen to build on the satirical character.
Wallowing in nostalgia reading Wikipedia and listening to Stanshall’s poetry.
When are the devastating ScoMo-sinking ALP negative ads going to drop?
Biggest impact in final week?
Close the deal
Gallagher will be fine. There is obviously a fair amount of strategic voting by Labor supporters in favour of Pocock. It’s similar to seats where high profile Teals are running.
@SA – Good for them?
No shade at you …
Whiplash!
Morrison switches so fast my head spins.
According to 5AA Adelaide, the Labor campaign is in “damage control” and are fear the “campaign is derailed”.
That’s what they were pushing on the Channel 7 “News” breaks last night while I was going through PB, analysing the weather models and half-watching the “Murdoch Mysteries” (no relation to Rupert). It’s as if they were worried no one would notice otherwise.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Morrison continues to hide from any hard questions.
Albo did not have a good day yesterday. He doesn’t have to remember every detail of every policy. But he needs a strategy to counter silly questions. Defer to the relevant minister. For the gotchas, adopt Bandt’s strategy and say to check Google. I missed QandA, where I understand Albo went much better.
Dutton and O’Connor did not have a great debate yesterday either. The SMH article pointed out the damaging line O’Connor did say, but there were many other areas Dutton was vulnerable on that he missed.
Overall though, it has not been a good week for Morrison or Frydenberg.