Another day, another assortment of news relevant to the federal election horse race. Note also the post below by Adrian Beaumont on today’s local elections in the UK. Here goes:
• The Australian reports Vivian Lobo, Liberal National Party candidate for the Brisbane seat of Lilley, lives in the up-market suburb of Windsor in the neighbouring electorate of Brisbane, but is enrolled within the electorate in a “run-down” and “obviously deserted” property in Lilley’s Everton Park. Lobo told the paper he had “signed a lease in Everton Park with the intention to move in straight away”, but had been “delayed” due to campaign commitments. The Labor-held seat is the most marginal in Queensland, being held by Anika Wells on a margin of 0.6%. Making a false claim for enrolment carries a maximum penalty of 12 months’ imprisonment.
• The Jacqui Lambie Network is directing preferences to Bridget Archer, who holds Bass for the Liberals on a 0.4% margin, but to Labor in the neighbouring seats of Braddon and Lyons, respectively held for the Liberals by Gavin Pearce on 3.1% and Labor by Brian Mitchell on 5.2%. Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports “strategists are privately confident that Labor will hold Lyons”; Max Maddison of The Australian reports Liberal sources were “confident of holding Braddon”. Labor has the JLN second on its Senate how-to-vote card, and the JLN has Labor third behind Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
• Matt Wade of the Age/Herald reports on a University of New South Wales analysis identifying seats where substantial numbers of mortgage payers are in financial stress. Top of the list is La Trobe in outer Melbourne on 72.3%, followed by Werriwa in Sydney (Labor 5.5%) on 70.7%, the Hunter region seat of Paterson (Labor 5.0%) on 65.0%, Pearce in northern Perth (Liberal 5.2%) on 63.2%, Bass in northern Tasmania (Liberal 0.4%) on 62.9% and Greenway in Sydney (Labor 2.8%) on 62.6%.
• Paul Garvey of The Australian notes Labor is “using specifically tailored advertising for the WA market” (I can report that not one Labor advertisement I have seen on Perth television could have been screened nationally), and that the party it outspending the Liberals on Facebook advertising in the state by three to one, “as the central ALP cedes control to the state party office and makes a major commitment to digital advertising”.
‘Lobo told the paper he had “signed a lease in Everton Park with the intention to move in straight away”, but had been “delayed” due to campaign commitments.’
… and the dog ate his homework.
“Please like me!”, pleads Joshie:
“People need to know that if they want to keep me as the local member but they may have an issue with something that the Liberal party has said or done, and they want to give us a kick for that, at the end of the day that may not leave me as the local member”
How sad …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/06/josh-frydenberg-pleads-with-unhappy-liberal-voters-to-stick-by-him-as-pressure-in-kooyong-grows?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Will the AEC actually follow up on Lobo (and fellow Lib Robbie Beaton in Isaacs)? Is there a minimum penalty or are they going to let it slide?
Sharri Markson no less. Has Murdoch flicked the switch?
Wonder how this will be received!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-encourages-voters-to-back-independents-to-thwart-liberal-factions-20220505-p5aiui.html
As i was at work last night i caught Q+A on youtube and a third of posts in chat (if i leave out the trolls) were for David Speers to shut up and let Albo answer the questions.
Expat
I wonder how long it will take for the AEC to act on Lobo and whether that will impact his candidacy?
Oliver Sutton
Re Joshy potentially losing his seat due to “something that the Liberal party has said or done”, somebody should inform him that is the whole point of elections.
I presume Vivian Lobo is a woman, and it will be treated the same way as any case where someone apparently incorrectly registers to vote. Can she be removed from the roll (I would’ve thought it’d be too late?)
It does seem weird to me that a candidate would bother to do this when you’re not required to be registered in the seat in which you’re running.
Edit: as others have pointed out, and the article if I’d read it, Lobo is indeed male, apologies all.
Itep
Lobo is a male.
Oz headline: Sprung: the fake home of LNP election hopeful
A candidate in Queensland’s most marginal seat has provided false evidence to the electoral commission claiming he is living at an address in his electorate that is abandoned, unfurnished and dilapidated.
Thanks Cronus! Oops 🙂
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-06/election-2022-albanese-morrison-gotcha-journalism-gaffes/101042428
I’ve made this point many times before. I can’t remember the last time a federal government minister encouraged booster vaccinations, or talked about rolling out 4th shots beyond the already-approved elderly and vulnerable groups.
Ditto in NSW. Despite advise from NSW Health about flu vaccinations, it’s like Covid has already been dispensed with in the minds of our politicians.
Vivian Lobo would not be the first Liberal candidate to fake reside in an electorate the Liberals have targeted. He’s just been caught before the election.
#nonamesnopackdrill
Morrison, “the knife thrower”, quite desperate to win, will, in the last two weeks of the election, wield his weapon of choice without restraint.
Morrison has a history, involving both friend and foe, of using anything to eliminate any obstacle to attain what he wants.
The derision with which he is held by colleagues attests to his ruthlessness.
Morrison wants to win this election to resign triumphantly, something he has denied others along his road to the apex of the liberal party.
The absolute irony of Morrison proclaiming “it’s not about me” or some such!
Who within the liberal party hasn’t had the boot prints of Morrison’s ambition tattooed randomly across both their self and path.
Perhaps Malcolm, Dutto, Abbott, Bailey, Gladys or Towke would like to comment!
Morrison is destined for Hillsong by the process of elimination.
Australia can’t afford this self-named, self-proclaimed, demi-godlike creature at the helm any longer.
Morrison remains a chance thanks to rampant political tribalism and a fractured culture within a corrupt Australian media.
Vivian is usually a name posh parents give to their sons. 🙂
Voters have turned against the Coalition across the country’s three biggest states in a powerful trend since the last election that exposes the government to defeat but also reveals a challenge for Labor in lifting its support in Victoria and Queensland.
The Coalition has suffered significant falls in its primary vote in Victoria, NSW and Queensland as part of a national trend that has cut its support from 41 per cent at the last election to 34 per cent in the opening weeks of this year’s election campaign.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-turn-against-coalition-in-key-states-but-labor-still-weak-in-queensland-20220504-p5aimq.html
“Making a false claim for enrolment carries a maximum penalty of 12 months’ imprisonment.”… From candidate to parliament to prison is a big jump …. I would call that “retrograde progress”… Very LNP.
“Holdenhillbilly says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 6:31 am”…
Funny “analysis” by Costello’s The Age…. Projecting weak gains or gains that “won’t be enough” on the ground of the primary vote is completely ludicrous. Assuming that the large number of votes attributed to the Greens in the poll are real, most of them will go to Labor in the 2PP and so the prediction is for substantial gains in seats by the ALP, even in Qld.
Expat @ #3 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 5:20 am
The AEC have been following up on matters brought to their attention thus far. Like the PHON candidate standing in two seats in two states for two different parties You’d imagine that if it’s the lead story in The Australian that they couldn’t ignore it.
Anyone able to provide results from the canberra times act senate polling? The headline is positive
“Alposays:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 6:41 am
“Holdenhillbilly says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 6:31 am”…
Funny “analysis” by Costello’s The Age…. Projecting weak gains or gains that “won’t be enough” on the ground of the primary vote is completely ludicrous. Assuming that the large number of votes attributed to the Greens in the poll are real, most of them will go to Labor in the 2PP and so the prediction is for substantial gains in seats by the ALP, even in Qld”
Exactly, it’s fucking nonsense analysis yet again
If both Labor and the Coalition win 34% primaries and the Greens and Independents have 20% between them, it is still almost certain Labor forms majority government or close enough to it for it not to be much different in practice (i.e 1 or 2 seats short with 8 to 10 on the cross bench)
Holdenhillbilly @ #16 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 6:31 am
This sort of analysis has been giving me the screaming meemees. It’s obvious to anyone with more than two brain cells to rub together that a lot of the support this election that has drained away from the majors is for the Teal candidates, or one of the Monster Raving Loony parties. It would comprise Labor supporters who want to see the Coalition defeated but live in a seat with a Liberal MP and so are parking their vote strategically with the Independent, or former Liberal voters who have defected.
Not only that but this analysis doesn’t seem to compensate for the fact that Teal Independents aren’t running in all seats but their score in the polls kind of reflects a situation as if they are.
… Which also doesn’t apparently reflect the votes for the majors in seats that they aren’t running in… which would consequently be higher.
And I really wish the polling companies would make their polls more sophisticated and actually ask which party of the Others people support!?! It’s such an important question that doesn’t seem to be being asked.
“Matt Wade of the Age/Herald reports on a University of New South Wales analysis identifying seats where substantial numbers of mortgage payers”… 3 seats are held by the Libs and 3 by the Labs. The hike in interest rates can only strengthen the Lab seats for the ALP and weaken the Lib seats for the Liberals….
The Scomo dinghy has got holes everywhere….
C@T
“ The AEC have been following up on matters brought to their attention thus far. Like the PHON candidate standing in two seats in two states for two different parties You’d imagine that if it’s the lead story in The Australian that they couldn’t ignore it.”
We’d certainly hope so, not only to uphold the law but especially in a seat being held by Labor by only 0.6%.
Might I also just comment on Morrison’s pissy little act last night where he chose to do a one on one interview with Paul Murray, at exactly the same time as Albanese was doing QandA!
What a pissant and a mean man.
C@T
“And I really wish the polling companies would make their polls more sophisticated and actually ask which party of the Others people support!?! It’s such an important question that doesn’t seem to be being asked.”
Agreed, it seems so simple and so obvious.
Oliver Sutton @ #2 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 4:53 am
The local polls must be dire. Talk about desperation.
Cronus,
Anika Wells is probably on the phone to the AEC, even as we speak. 😀
Tom @ #27 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 7:02 am
Um, isn’t that the whole point of voting? If you don’t like things your MP, and/or their government have done, you don’t vote for them next time???
C@T
“ Might I also just comment on Morrison’s pissy little act last night where he chose to do a one on one interview with Paul Murray, at exactly the same time as Albanese was doing QandA!
What a pissant and a mean man.”
Morrison can’t find time to hold a hose and goes on holidays in Hawaii when his nation is in desperate crisis but he can attend a self-serving interview at short notice, go figure, says everything about him doesn’t it?
“C@tmommasays:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 6:52 am
Holdenhillbilly @ #16 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 6:31 am”…
Yep, that kind of crap is the reason why commentators in the MSM often get their predictions wrong. The Teals are a significant game changer at this election and, for some reason, those commentators refuse to compute the obvious fact that Teals are running against Liberals in Liberal-held seats and a couple of them against the Nationals in Nationals-held seats. Moreover, most of those seats are usually regarded as safe against ALP+Greens attack.
Moreover, the Teals are not a path to a hung parliament. The Teals are the difference between a defeat of the Coalition by the ALP and a historical bashing of the Coalition by ALP+Teals.
Watched Q and A.
David Speers, whose real name is not David but Rick with a silent P, was awful.
He wanted short answers because of time constraints but took up that valuable time by making himself the centre of attention.
Nearly every time Albo started to get into the groove with an answer, Rick interrupted.
I thought Albo was impressive and my reading is that the audience thought so as well.
On a couple of occasions Rick looked uncomfortable as the audience applauded Albo
From the Canberra times
The “robocall” poll of 1064 people on April 23 and April 24 shows Senator Seselja settling below the quota at 25 per cent of the redistributed primary vote. He received 33.3 per cent of the vote in 2013, 33.1 per cent in 2016 and dipped below the quota to 32.4 per cent in 2019.
But Mr Pocock is now polling at 21 per cent overall and he is most popular with people aged 40 to 59 years at 26 per cent. That’s a leap from the first ACT Senate race poll published in early April which showed the independent challenger at 11 and 13 per cent. It shows him taking a significant bite into the votes of other candidates, although fellow independent candidate Kim Rubenstein remains unchanged at 6 per cent.
Looks like Zed is dead.
Thanks jayc.
Any labor or green numbers given in that?
C@tmomma says:
“Vivian is usually a name posh parents give to their sons”
Fans of The Young Ones?
C@tmomma @ #29 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 7:04 am
You silly Girl! Don’t you realise that Josh was born to be Prime Minister? How dare a mere commoner such as yourself question that. 😉 Well, that’s the attitude these people have. Must be an existential question of life for the libs. How could mere commoners turf them out.
Oliver Sutton @ #35 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 7:14 am
Or Cricket – Sir Vivian Richards.
If the maximum penalty for lodging a false enrolment form is 12 months in jail, a candidate who did that, and won the seat, would potentially have a s44 problem.
Isn’t Vivienne the female and Vivian the male name?
Not necessarily, Vivian can be either. Vivienne is female-specific.
C@t, Annika Wells is certainly on the ball.
On QandA last week, she called out a Liberal plant in the audience. By name.
All will be much clearer once all the votes are counted.
Rnm1953 says:
“David Speers, whose real name is not David but Rick with a silent P ..:”
The second Young Ones allusion within half an hour! (After Vivian [Lobo])
Anyone want to name-drop Neil or Mike?
Anyone got these WA ALP ads that are unbroadcastable in the east online?
Alpo @ #17 Friday, May 6th, 2022 – 6:31 am
You forget though that each LNP candidate is issued with a Get out of Goal Free card by SFM which entitles them.
Very true about Albo vs Scomoe , Albo who is accused of not being on top of his brief is out there facing a clearly hostile media pack every day. He patiently answered questions in an honest and decent way last night with ” Speersy” the ex Murdochcracy man constantly interrupting a la Stan Grant. Meanwhile over at the raucous sky tv madhouse Scomoe is getting a back scratch off some obsequious right wing toady. Media say plenty about Albos so called gaffes nothing about Scomoe just being exposed to friendly coverage. In fact in the rare event of meeting the public he is invariably yelled at.
What a sad state of affairs. The buffoon vs the babbling fool. Is this really the best Australia has?
Just to reiterate – it’s TWO Lib candidates. Robbie Beaton (Isaacs) should cop the same penalty as Lobo.
Turnbull encourages voters to back independents to ‘thwart’ Liberal factions
How does his previously endorsed mate Sharma feel?
I wouldn’t have known that Paul Murray interviewed Scott Morrison unless I’d read it in the comments here. The evidence of the interview doesn’t even appear on the first page of search results.