First things first:
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday looking at how-to-vote cards, preference deals and the media coverage attendant to them. It considers a claim by Greg Sheridan of The Australian that any teal independent victories will be owed to ovine fealty to how-to-vote cards on the part of Labor and Greens voters; Labor’s decision to put the United Australia Party ahead of the Greens in central Queensland seats, in sharp contrast to its treatment of the party everywhere else; and One Nation’s tokenistic direction of preferences against the Liberals in five seats, without endangering Pauline Hanson’s second placement on the Liberal National Party Senate ticket in Queensland. Had I held back a day, I might have been able to note the latest full-page United Australia Party advertisements proclaiming &8220;Labor are preferencing the Liberal Party”.
• Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports the Liberals are boosting resources in the Labor-held seat of McEwen in outer Melbourne. However, Labor sources say they expect to retain the Victorian seats that have become the source of media chatter over the past week, the others being Corangamite and Dunkley, as “national concerns over cost of living and antipathy towards Mr Morrison” are registering as strongly here as anywhere else.
• The Australian reports the Liberals are newly concerned that the normally safe Brisbane seat of Ryan will be lost to Labor. There has also been increasing talk that the Greens could prove competitive in both Ryan and neighbouring Brisbane, together with Labor-held Griffith immediately to the south.
• Alice Workman of The Australian reports “independent polling conducted over the phone, towards the end of April” shows Liberal candidate Jenny Ware on a low enough primary vote to put her in danger of losing Hughes to independent Georgia Steele. Liberal sources are quoted saying Ware is “on the nose with locals after being picked by Scott Morrison to run, against the wishes of rank-and-file branch members”. Assuredly not in contention is the seat’s incumbent, Craig Kelly, notwithstanding United Australia Party advertising proclaiming him the “next Prime Minister of Australia”.
• The Age/Herald today reports that this week’s Resolve Strategic poll showed 32% rated the Coalition as best to manage the Solomon Islands issue compared with 29% for Labor.
Now, by popular demand, a post probing into this site’s popular BludgerTrack poll aggregate, for which a permanent link can be found on the sidebar. This presently suggests Labor holds a lead of 54.0-46.0 on two-party preferred, which I don’t think anyone seriously expects to be actual result at the election. It does, however, show a narrowing trend commencing slightly before the onset of the campaign period, though not sufficient to suggest any chance of the Coalition closing the gap. Given the record low support for the major parties, the Coalition can at least hope that parity on two-party preferred need not be required to at least hold on to minority government – and also for another pollster failure like that in 2019 (the likelihood of which is considered in a post by Mark the Ballot).
BludgerTrack is one of a number of endeavours around the place that seek to plot a signal through the noise of federal opinion polling, together with one on the Wikipedia federal election page maintained by a user called Canley; Twitter user @Gergyl’s regular posts aggregating trends both short-range and long-range; and semi-regular blog posts from the aforementioned Mark the Ballot. That’s aside from the sites Armarium Interreta and Buckleys and None which, together with Professor Simon Jackman’s betting odds model, are tracking the horse race in other ways.
BludgerTrack and its close relatives, each of which produce very similar results, use LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) functions to trace a path through the data points that keeps the distance between the path and the points at an appropriate level. The degree of tolerance for this difference is set by a smoothing parameter, which produces something resembling a straight line if set too high, and zooms all over the place in response to each individual poll result if set too low. The industry standard for determining the Goldilocks point is called the Akaike information criterion, which I use (thanks to a library available for the R statistics package) without really understanding its mathematical intricacies.
The data points themselves consist of every opinion poll of voting intention published since July 2019 by YouGov/Newspoll, Essential Research, Roy Morgan, Resolve Strategic and, just recently, Ipsos, which are weighted according to their perceived accuracy and adjusted to smooth out the peculiarities of each series. My methods here are quite a bit less presumptuous than they were before the pollster failure of 2019, when I imagined there was value in calibrating pollsters’ historic performances. I now assume that YouGov/Newspoll, the only pollster with any track record to speak of since 2019, is essentially free of bias, and calculate other pollsters’ biases based on the extent to which they deviate from a trend measure of it. These are halved so the peculiarities of each pollster have at least some weight in the overall result, rather than it being totally centred around Newspoll. The biggest change made is to Resolve Strategic’s Labor vote, which is increased by over two points. All other adjustments amount to less than one point.
Each pollster gets a weighting based partly on how much bias adjustment they’re being loaded up with, but mostly on my subjective impression of how accurate they’re likely to be, together with consideration of how frequently they report. The latter ensures the aggregate doesn’t get overwhelmed by the more prolific polling series. The most heavily weighted pollster at the moment is actually Ipsos, which is a (presumably) high-quality pollster that has so far produced only two polls released several weeks about. However, the mainstay of the series, Newspoll, is not far behind – a Resolve Strategic poll is worth about half a Newspoll, and an Essential Research (the most prolific series over the current term) and a Roy Morgan (which has a dubious track record) are worth about a quarter each.
Where BludgerTrack goes deeper than its rivals is in providing state breakdowns (together with leadership ratings). This is done using trend measures of each state’s deviation from the national results, which are then combined with the national trends (excepting Tasmania, for which next to no state-level data is published). Unfortunately, only Ipsos offers complete state data for each poll, as the others don’t care to have their small sub-samples held up to scrutiny their margins of error can’t bear. Essential Research comes close, but it smooths results for the smaller states by publishing three-poll rolling averages. Newspoll has always dealt with the issue by publishing state-level aggregates on a quarterly basis, which are a big deal for BludgerTrack when they come along (it would be nice to see one soon). Resolve Strategic only goes as deep as Queensland, and Roy Morgan’s are not used as they only provide two-party preferred at state level, whereas BludgerTrack works off primary votes.
“alias says:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 7:01 pm
ABC TV news in Melbourne leading on Albo “gaffe”. Terrible, lazy news judgement.”
The “gaffe” was about NDIS policies… So, is the ABC suggesting that because of this irrelevant “gaffe” the voters should vote for Scomo and the Coalition who hate and want to destroy the NDIS?…
Will the voters be less Moronic in 2022 than they were in 2019?….. Not long to wait now….
Happy Birthday Karl Marx, on the occasion of the 204th anniversary of your birth, your dalliance with the London Stock Exchange not denting your towering intellect whatsoever(?).
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-a-history-of-the-stock-market-investments-made-by-karl-marx-and/
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I’ve found the AEC to be most impressive. Applying for a postal vote, everything went to plan, with emails confirming each step, said PV arriving in the mail today & duly dispatched. This will have the member for Wright shaking in his R.M. Williams. This country’s blessed to have a central authority overseeing federal elections, and what’s more, a very efficient one – BZ.
_____________________________________
“I like Scott Morrison, he’s a Cronulla supporter, and has done a great job” – just one constituent in a vox pop in Cook, on Aunty.
_____________________________________
As for Albanese unable to answer journos’ questions re. the NDIS, it could’ve been handled better, but it’s a cup in a storm, though the MSM seems intent to make it an issue à la Beazley -until tomorrow.
This has always been my opinion
Lib/nats combined primary vote is below 40% on the night of the election
The result of the federal election – government is defeated will be called early
I just caught up with the Defence debate at the NPC today between Dutton and McCormack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYMQ2GM18zo
To be honest, I thought neither speaker impressed; nothing like Albo’s campaign launch or Chalmers skewering Lydenberg. McCormack fumbled a lot with his speech notes, and did not seem across the details. Dutton was imposing but superficial, hinting at secret knowledge he has failed to share even during the caretaker period.
There were little details they both got wrong. Somebody explain to them that “Ukraine” is a country. “The Ukraine” is the way Russians refer to the region as it was in the former Soviet Union. Ukrainians hate that. Its like saying “The France”.
McCormack seems a decent person and made some good points. But many opportunities to nail Dutton were missed. He is obviously not knowledgeable in this area, and his background is in IR, and it shows. The failure of Morrison and co to deliver thousands of jobs to Adelaide over six years was completely missed.
From the Daily Telegraph:
Anthony Albanese’s colleagues question his ability to lead Labor as he makes another mistake
Anthony Albanese’s own Labor colleagues are questioning his ability to lead after he made his fifth campaign mistake just two weeks from the polls. See the video.
Jade Gailberger
and
Hayden Johnson
2 min read
May 5, 2022 – 6:56PM
News Corp Australia Network
Just saw the ‘gaffe’ on ABC news.
Shades of that Liberal candidate from back in the day, except Albanese could actually name the central point of Labor’s policy on disability care.
Still, by now Albo should be able to provide an off the cuff response to questions he doesn’t know the specific detail of.
Former Labor Leader Mark Latham’s take on NDISgate:
Real Mark Latham
@RealMarkLatham
·
2h
A non-aligned voter just said to me, “Does this Albanese not give a shit; he just couldn’t be bothered learning what his policies are?”
Looks that way.
Real Mark Latham
@RealMarkLatham
·
21m
Albanese to his doctor: “Can you get Covid twice in three weeks?”
The thing is – most punters couldn’t give two shits whether a party is left or right. Partisans of all stripes, myself included, keep forgetting most people do not self-analyse themselves.
Elections are rarely won on specific policies or trajectories – but the vibe. The meta I keep on about.
Incumbents everywhere are increasingly on the nose. After two years, include the fires, 2.5 years… people are tired and angry and frustrated. Incumbency was a boon, now it’s a liability. Then add in the shit they’ve actually done (or not done)… if you pull your head out of your arse… you’ll see what’s actually going on here.
Ah @Lars – the old we’ll make a story up knowing Labor cannot deny it, since it will give it more oxygen.
There is no way that the LNP can win in 2022. Swinging voters have had 3 years to see them in action.
The polls are correct this time.
Kyla Tink, the independent candidate for North Sydney, has COVID, bad timing for her.
“Still, by now Albo should be able to provide an off the cuff response to questions he doesn’t know the specific detail of.”
Yeah it is not a secret recipe.
Don’t accept the premise of the question give the answer you want and don’t allow repeats.
In this case answer you want plus “since you can’t google I’ll get you a glossy of the policy delivered today.”
Lol Lars Von Trier
Lars: one more brain fade from Albo and I will call for Jim Chalmers to take over. Stuff like today does not help. Yes, Ten ignored it, but Nine and Seven and the ABC did not
“Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 7:08 pm
From the Daily Telegraph:
Anthony Albanese’s colleagues question his ability to lead Labor …”
The Daily Telegraph?…. Ha, ha, ha….
Will the Telecrap refer to Albanese as PM, after the ALP wins the election, or would they insist that he is “illegitimate”?
Albo needs to be firmer with these press jackals.
He simply should have said I’m here to talk about our climate and renewable policies, that’s why Chris Bowen is here. We’ll have more to say on the NDIS in the next few days as we’ve already had a lot to say so far in this campaign. But I will say this, Labor created the NDIS, just like we created Medicare and we’ll fix the mess the coalition has made of the NDIS.
That said I don’t think it was a major issue.
“Kyla Tink, the independent candidate for North Sydney, has COVID, bad timing for her.”
Damn amd she was next of the eagles liat to play in the midfield.
@Evan – I’ll stand by for your media statement.
FFS.
I would have preferred Chalmers too – but guess what? It’s Albo who’s led the party and got them unified on the cusp of victory.
Frankly – while it wasn’t a great look. I would have told Sparky to go fuck himself and come back when he had some manners.
Cat,
What is the point of our MSM asking questions about matters where the information is readily available?
Reporting by tripping up is a pretty weak sort of journalism. I don’t think it has impacted the campaign. But, I am sure some of these opinion setters think they have struck gold.
“Evan says:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 7:15 pm
Lars: one more brain fade from Albo and I will call for Jim Chalmers to take over. Stuff like today does not help. Yes, Ten ignored it, but Nine and Seven and the ABC did not”….
Who is Scomo going to call to cover him up from his blunders, lies and incompetence?… Do you have any recommendation for him?
Albanese should start calling the corrupt media hacks
mister speaker
Evan, I reckon PM ‘s and party leaders have enormous ego’s and self-belief. I wonder if thats there with Albo. I think the source of Albo’s problem is insecurity about being worthy/ up to being PM.
I still think he’ll win – but if he really doesn’t think he’s up to it – bowing out by blaming something like long covid and throwing to Plibersek or Chalmers could be a masterstroke – generating enormous sympathy to Albo and a groundswell for a thumping Labor win.
The only thing ScoMo has going for him is the doubt about Albo.
Evan: do you not realise that Chalmers would look just as bad if not worse with the media pack’s focus and character assassination? That’s the fate of every Labor leader. Albo’s gotten to a winning position by being himself and not by being a smooth talker. Inconsequential nonsense like this is so prominent because they have nothing.
“Henry says:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 7:16 pm
Albo needs to be firmer with these press jackals.”
I prefer him to be firmer against Scomo, his incompetent Gang in Government and their policies….
… and just laugh at the jackals, as he did today…
Haha ABC news exposing ON tactic to make money!!!
Lol Evan and Lars.
ltep @ #675 Thursday, May 5th, 2022 – 6:36 pm
I’m not locking it in, yet, because I want to actually look through the seats, etc, and judge them before making my prediction… but my temporary quick prediction is Labor 85, Coalition 53, Greens 3, Others 10.
There seem to be an awful lot of people without names who voice opinions to Murdoch’s minions. Not for a moment would I insinuate that these people do not exist.
Labor on the wane in Australia? Labor holds most state governments. NSW goes to the polls in 2023, and with no Gladys at the helm it’s going to be very competitive. Federally Labor has led the TPP for many months now. The Albo ‘gotcha’ in week one of the campaign translated to a 1-point dip for Labor in the Newspoll, which then ticked up again in later Newspoll/s. The LNP has not risen above the mid 30’s for months. The LNP federal treasurer is in the fight of his life just to hold his current seat, with advertising now basically begging for him to be re-elected. Overall, the LNP are looking at being out of office federally come 21 May. So that would leave the LNP/ Liberals in government in Tas and on shaky ground in NSW. The coloured map tells the story, click on link and srcoll down to the right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiers_and_chief_ministers_of_the_Australian_states_and_territories
From well known Sydney identity Kyles:
Kylie Parker
@KylieParkerCA
·
May 4
My hairdressers electoral opinion in Double Bay
I asked who he thought would win.
Labor
His electorate of Fowler
Dai Le the local Labor person against Kristina. I said there can’t be two Labor. Yep she is Labor.
So you have to be superhuman now as you recover from COVID-19?
Feeling very comfortable. Doubling down by focusing on gaffegate is a mistake. A waste of precious time by those behind in the polls.
The challenge with negative messaging to a group of people is to find what is negative to individuals. It can be hard to tell what resonates.
If that sort of thing influenced your vote, you have already decided in week 1 😉
The few days after Albanese’s Day 1 gaffe the odds tightened a lot, based on nothing other than media perception. Of course, within a week we had actual poll data to show that it was 53-47, and has been the whole time. The odds lengthened every day after that.
After today, the odds came in slightly (LNP in to $3.00 from $3.15 this morning).
The media want a tight race. They’ll go psychotic over the next fortnight, guaranteed.
I don’t the press have moved to beyond pathetic, and it would seem the ABC is there with the rest of them.
In partial defence of TV journalists who succumb to the temptation to use vision such as Albanese’s latest “gaffe”:
The plain fact is that politicians are increasingly scripted and it’s very rare to get footage of a politician, especially one aspiring for the highest office, at a moment of vulnerability, with human foibles on full display.
These journalists film hundreds of hours of guys like Morrison and Albanese spouting the usual stuff.
And with captivating “vision” so rare, the temptation to use footage such as today’s of Albanese is overwhelming. I’m not saying it’s sound news judgement; it’s not. But the temptation is huge.
“Stuck in limbo or having to fight the NIDS for support”
Perhaps this article on ABC News should have led the News Service
Because it is that description which IS the story
And why the ALP is campaigning on NIDS
To fix the problem introduced by this government
Forget the “gotchas”
The reason there is a plan is that there is a problem – a very significant problem
Putting people with disabilities and their families first is a not negotiable requirement
This government has a different focus
Media is a disgrace
And those putting questions should identify themselves and which media owners they represent
As for this vox populi entertainment by our sad and incompetent media, it isn’t a reflection of how each political party is going. That is what polling is for. It is moreso a reflection on how biased the media is. If they show opinions that are roughly 50:50 then they are neutral based on the current polls. If they are only attracting and presenting opinions from people that would vote one way, then they are the one eyed cartoon figures that Rowe drew in his recent picture of truth.
Fuckwit of the week
Will Chamberlain
@willhamberlain
Casually tweeting the identity of the person who he thinks leaked draft Roe v Wade opinion
SA Bludg – correction … they want the appearance of a tight race.
It’s almost too late for them to generate one.
But the thing with campaigns is it always blurs the situation, rather than clarify it. Because it suits almost all players for things to be muddy.
Shellbell,
Is that the old Boston Celtics basketballer?
This is funny:
PRGuy
@PRGuy17
·
8h
Hello
@AlboMP
, can you please tell me the atomic weight of carbon and the exact number of electrons in the outer shell of a carbon atom? These details are missing from your policies on fighting corruption, reducing the cost of living and giving Aussies a better future. #auspol
Lars Von Trier:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 7:08 pm
From the Daily Telegraph:
[‘Anthony Albanese’s colleagues question his ability to lead Labor as he makes another mistake.’]
You don’t think the DT is over-egging it a smidgeon? I guess we’ll have to wait until Sunday night. I think most 60s & over suffer the occasional memory lapse? In fact, I can’t recall what I had for lunch. I now remember, it was a fricassee of jellyfish, garnished with onion, served with lobster sauce?
Gg
Two feet shorter, 50 years younger and alabaster
Have we spotted first signs of pants wetting?
I’d imagine China would be torn as to its preferred election winner.
The Liberals would provide more opportunities in the Pacific, whilst Labor would provide a mature partner where our relationship could become more civilised and productive.
730 with a good report on NDIS
And then 7.30
The media reporting “gaffe” and not the problem should be named, drawn and quartered so they have to rely on the scheme
They are criminal
Wilt Chamberlain
Shellbell,
It’s amazing what you can do with photo shop these days.
my guess :
ALP : 84
Teals : 3
Teals get Goldstein + Wentworth, and 1 of Kooyong or North Sydney. Technically pink in NS but meh. Scamps in Mackellar seriously dark horse.
But what the fk do I know? Nothing. Less than I used to know. Getting less all. of. the. time.
Apparently the leaking of the Roe opinion is not actually against the law.