First things first:
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday looking at how-to-vote cards, preference deals and the media coverage attendant to them. It considers a claim by Greg Sheridan of The Australian that any teal independent victories will be owed to ovine fealty to how-to-vote cards on the part of Labor and Greens voters; Labor’s decision to put the United Australia Party ahead of the Greens in central Queensland seats, in sharp contrast to its treatment of the party everywhere else; and One Nation’s tokenistic direction of preferences against the Liberals in five seats, without endangering Pauline Hanson’s second placement on the Liberal National Party Senate ticket in Queensland. Had I held back a day, I might have been able to note the latest full-page United Australia Party advertisements proclaiming &8220;Labor are preferencing the Liberal Party”.
• Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports the Liberals are boosting resources in the Labor-held seat of McEwen in outer Melbourne. However, Labor sources say they expect to retain the Victorian seats that have become the source of media chatter over the past week, the others being Corangamite and Dunkley, as “national concerns over cost of living and antipathy towards Mr Morrison” are registering as strongly here as anywhere else.
• The Australian reports the Liberals are newly concerned that the normally safe Brisbane seat of Ryan will be lost to Labor. There has also been increasing talk that the Greens could prove competitive in both Ryan and neighbouring Brisbane, together with Labor-held Griffith immediately to the south.
• Alice Workman of The Australian reports “independent polling conducted over the phone, towards the end of April” shows Liberal candidate Jenny Ware on a low enough primary vote to put her in danger of losing Hughes to independent Georgia Steele. Liberal sources are quoted saying Ware is “on the nose with locals after being picked by Scott Morrison to run, against the wishes of rank-and-file branch members”. Assuredly not in contention is the seat’s incumbent, Craig Kelly, notwithstanding United Australia Party advertising proclaiming him the “next Prime Minister of Australia”.
• The Age/Herald today reports that this week’s Resolve Strategic poll showed 32% rated the Coalition as best to manage the Solomon Islands issue compared with 29% for Labor.
Now, by popular demand, a post probing into this site’s popular BludgerTrack poll aggregate, for which a permanent link can be found on the sidebar. This presently suggests Labor holds a lead of 54.0-46.0 on two-party preferred, which I don’t think anyone seriously expects to be actual result at the election. It does, however, show a narrowing trend commencing slightly before the onset of the campaign period, though not sufficient to suggest any chance of the Coalition closing the gap. Given the record low support for the major parties, the Coalition can at least hope that parity on two-party preferred need not be required to at least hold on to minority government – and also for another pollster failure like that in 2019 (the likelihood of which is considered in a post by Mark the Ballot).
BludgerTrack is one of a number of endeavours around the place that seek to plot a signal through the noise of federal opinion polling, together with one on the Wikipedia federal election page maintained by a user called Canley; Twitter user @Gergyl’s regular posts aggregating trends both short-range and long-range; and semi-regular blog posts from the aforementioned Mark the Ballot. That’s aside from the sites Armarium Interreta and Buckleys and None which, together with Professor Simon Jackman’s betting odds model, are tracking the horse race in other ways.
BludgerTrack and its close relatives, each of which produce very similar results, use LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) functions to trace a path through the data points that keeps the distance between the path and the points at an appropriate level. The degree of tolerance for this difference is set by a smoothing parameter, which produces something resembling a straight line if set too high, and zooms all over the place in response to each individual poll result if set too low. The industry standard for determining the Goldilocks point is called the Akaike information criterion, which I use (thanks to a library available for the R statistics package) without really understanding its mathematical intricacies.
The data points themselves consist of every opinion poll of voting intention published since July 2019 by YouGov/Newspoll, Essential Research, Roy Morgan, Resolve Strategic and, just recently, Ipsos, which are weighted according to their perceived accuracy and adjusted to smooth out the peculiarities of each series. My methods here are quite a bit less presumptuous than they were before the pollster failure of 2019, when I imagined there was value in calibrating pollsters’ historic performances. I now assume that YouGov/Newspoll, the only pollster with any track record to speak of since 2019, is essentially free of bias, and calculate other pollsters’ biases based on the extent to which they deviate from a trend measure of it. These are halved so the peculiarities of each pollster have at least some weight in the overall result, rather than it being totally centred around Newspoll. The biggest change made is to Resolve Strategic’s Labor vote, which is increased by over two points. All other adjustments amount to less than one point.
Each pollster gets a weighting based partly on how much bias adjustment they’re being loaded up with, but mostly on my subjective impression of how accurate they’re likely to be, together with consideration of how frequently they report. The latter ensures the aggregate doesn’t get overwhelmed by the more prolific polling series. The most heavily weighted pollster at the moment is actually Ipsos, which is a (presumably) high-quality pollster that has so far produced only two polls released several weeks about. However, the mainstay of the series, Newspoll, is not far behind – a Resolve Strategic poll is worth about half a Newspoll, and an Essential Research (the most prolific series over the current term) and a Roy Morgan (which has a dubious track record) are worth about a quarter each.
Where BludgerTrack goes deeper than its rivals is in providing state breakdowns (together with leadership ratings). This is done using trend measures of each state’s deviation from the national results, which are then combined with the national trends (excepting Tasmania, for which next to no state-level data is published). Unfortunately, only Ipsos offers complete state data for each poll, as the others don’t care to have their small sub-samples held up to scrutiny their margins of error can’t bear. Essential Research comes close, but it smooths results for the smaller states by publishing three-poll rolling averages. Newspoll has always dealt with the issue by publishing state-level aggregates on a quarterly basis, which are a big deal for BludgerTrack when they come along (it would be nice to see one soon). Resolve Strategic only goes as deep as Queensland, and Roy Morgan’s are not used as they only provide two-party preferred at state level, whereas BludgerTrack works off primary votes.
Adem ? the dodgy Victorian pollie was tweeting today that Albo wasn’t up to it.
That was probably the DTs source. He allegedly was feeding stories re Kitching a few js ago.
Sprocket,
Does pissing yourself laughing at the concern trolls of PB count?
There’s still QandA and 2 debates to go. What happened today will not be definitive.
Speaking with some Liberal voting relatives, they are resigned to a Labor win – and are gratified that Albo looks ‘safe’ with no policies which will affect them.
His only policy, as relayed to me, is that ‘he isn’t ScoMo’. Which would appear to be a winner…
GG
No.
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 7:43 pm
Which isotope?
I think if Albanese’s Day One gaffe was an 8/10, today’s is about 3/10,
sprocket_ at 7:46 pm
I’m waiting for signs of some ‘Engadining’
Has anyone spotted Linda Reynolds, Minister for the NDIS?
I find it difficult to discern the utility of leaking the challenge to Roe v. Wade. I mean, it was always on the cards with the elevation of Coney Barrett. Can someone please enlighten me?
Is the Labor Party in “damage control” mode or is the Channel 7 News bised bullshit? Given that it doesn’t get a mention on the SMH site I’d suggest the latter.
But commercial TV is where many people are getting their information on how things are going.
Albo polishing his answer on Captain of the team…
https://twitter.com/exposingnv/status/1522023348955664384?s=21&t=ldPWY65XJFPAxhHI8aSfAw
This is shocking:
“A Liberal MP says women shouldn’t be allowed to have abortions even if they are a victim of rape. The comments have sent shockwaves through the party.”
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/politics/victorian-liberal-mp-bernie-finn-praying-for-abortion-ban-in-us/news-story/2ab187be8ecfa6a1b9f14eaedebf2c66
So you can call me out for being no fun and everything.
But I’m fucking sick of satire on nightly news. It cheapens the format.
Remember the news hour with Dan Rather. They used to run pictures of soldiers who died in Iraq and Afghanistan in a moment of silence at the end of the show. And here’s 7:30 and the ABC putting tons of effort into smug skits.
It’s part of the decline.
Being earnest may not be hip, but it’s something I kind of want from a show like the 730 report.
Gah, I hate the rain, just stuck inside yelling at the TV.
Mavis
“I find it difficult to discern the utility of leaking the challenge to Roe v. Wade.”
For the Midterms.
Mavis, I’ve seen two main theories:
1. One of the liberals in the court was so outraged by the draft opinion that they wanted to put it out there in public to provoke public outrage/ political action etc
2. One of the conservatives put it out there because CJ Roberts was supposedly trying to persuade the hard-line conservatives to agree to a more modest reversal of Roe. The theory here is that by leaking the opinion, the battle-lines are made public, and it’s harder for the five (Alito plus the hard-line other four) to alter their opinion.
alias:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 7:51 pm
[‘I think if Albanese’s Day One gaffe was an 8/10, today’s is about 3/10,’]
I think it’d be hard to get a distinction out of you.
Henry @ #719 Thursday, May 5th, 2022 – 7:16 pm
‘But I will say this, Labor created the NDIS, just like we created Medicare and we’ll fix the mess the coalition has made of the NDIS.’
Absobloodylutely.
Or turn and say ‘there’d be no NDIS without the Labor party’.
Also, I will put my hand up and say.
Labor will win, I think it’ll be 80+, There’ll be wins in Queensland. And possibly a loss to the greens or it’ll go line ball. Wilkie will be returned, Zali will win, FBerg and Tim Wilson will lose.
Scomo will keep his seat. Which will be fun when the by election happens 5 minutes after the first humiliating day sitting on the opposition benches.
Seat polls next week?
Upnorth have you been briefed on any more internal polls?
Steve777 @ #765 Thursday, May 5th, 2022 – 7:58 pm
And tonight they’ve been told Albanese stuffed up again.
Who is the Blue Pillock who comes here?
Down from Mt Liberal (“I did vote Labor once”) to tell us all what fools people are to support Labor…..
This is from someone who thinks a party supported by fewer that 4 out of 10 voters is a preferred option
Oh, and think of long-lasting stuff in politics, what did happen about all those “mean girls” just 3/4 weeks ago was it….? Who was it, Kichen, Kitching, Kitten? the conservatives were so concerned about…?
As I mentioned earlier, we had a recently departed Premier of NSW, who could not seem to “recall” anything from her political past when questioned – and that was not so very long ago either.
For good or bad, what short memories people have………
Amusing Mavis,
I think Latham’s handshake and Ralph Willis’ unwitting use of forged documents three days before the 1996 election would probably both earn distinctions.
Would this have been more relevant to 7.30 Report than bullshit gotcha press conference?
This morning the acting education minister, Stuart Robert, bizarrely claimed to have been doing Alan Tudge’s job for “almost 12 months”.
Robert told ABC News Breakfast:
Well, I’m the acting education minister, Lisa, and have been for almost 12 months. So I’ve got full authority in terms of running the education portfolio, as well as skills and workplace and the other things that I do.
In fact, Robert has only been acting education minister since 2 December (five months).
Curiously, the Coalition transcript corrects the error, claiming Robert had said:
I am the acting education minister … and have been for a number of months.”
But the footage is there for all to see:
Mundo, you miserable git…..
Why don’t you go away and sit on a rock at the bottom of Tasmania and contemplate the the the Antarctic……
Adda @ #726 Thursday, May 5th, 2022 – 7:20 pm
‘Albo’s got to a winning position …’
Fixed it.
What is it with ‘gotten’
A year ago people would still have been using ‘got’ where now they feel compelled to use ‘gotten’
What’s going on.
Tricot @ #60 Thursday, May 5th, 2022 – 8:12 pm
Got a bee in your bonnet?
What have I done this time?
I was simply making the observation that the coverage I’ve seen, including on the ABC was giving the impression that Albo had …’done it again’….
This is the gobshite the average punter sees and hears.
Do you not get that? Tosser.
Mundo gets to contemplate the big issues of life while hiding under the doona!
Commentariat Uprising:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 8:05 pm
[‘Mavis
“I find it difficult to discern the utility of leaking the challenge to Roe v. Wade.”]
[‘For the Midterms.’]
But the decision is almost due, way before the mid-terms. Perhaps even the SCOTUS, dare I suggest it, is testing the waters?
ABC Perth hosted a debate between the candidates for Curtin, Celia Hammond and Kate Chaney this afternoon. Link below:
“CURTIN VOTES: Celia Hammond and Kate Chaney discuss climate change, their values, funding transparency, hung parliaments and abortion”
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/perth/programs/drive/curtin-votes-debate-hammond-chaney/13868958
The Coalition will gain Dunkley, Corangamite, Parramatta and Gilmore. This will offset any possible losses elsewhere.
Greensborough Growler @ #63 Thursday, May 5th, 2022 – 8:17 pm
With his cat, Andrew.
I see all the Lib-bots feel the need to self-soothe… or think somehow this makes a difference?
LVT, you follow Mark Latham?
Ick.
He has a point.
https://twitter.com/JJKALE2/status/1522150895336648704
Mundo,
Your cat does not know it’s name. It doesn’t think it’s your cat. You are it’s client.
The special services you provide is all that keeps it interested in you at all.
Charlessays:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 8:02 pm
This is shocking:
“A Liberal MP says women shouldn’t be allowed to have abortions even if they are a victim of rape. The comments have sent shockwaves through the party.”
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/politics/victorian-liberal-mp-bernie-finn-praying-for-abortion-ban-in-us/news-story/2ab187be8ecfa6a1b9f14eaedebf2c66
_____________
Not shocking when you live in Victoria and know who Bernie Finn is……
south says:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 8:03 pm
ABC putting tons of effort into smug skits.
The skits are the only bit of real comment & analysis these programs generally have.
Bree says:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 8:18 pm
The Coalition will gain Dunkley, Corangamite, Parramatta and Gilmore. This will offset any possible losses elsewhere.
———————————————–
That will probably get lib/nats to a total of 50 seats in the house of reps
Alias,
I heard today that Fox News already had segments ready to go as soon as the Roe reversal was leaked. Make of that what you will.
Sad Story, but it doesn’t say anything about the father’s family and their thoughts regarding the child.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/05/fears-for-queensland-mother-in-mexico-after-her-daughter-was-found-wandering-alone-at-a-church
Big cheers for Albanese to open QandA.
Interesting C@tmomma. Hadn’t seen that.
[C@tmommasays: Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 8:34 pm
Big cheers for Albanese to open QandA.]
I think it’s a mistake the outgoing pm won’t appear on q&a.
Opposition leader @AlboMP is about to appear on the ABC’s Q&A with @David_Speers. Prime Minister Scott Morrison is about to appear with @PMOnAir on Sky.
Preaching to the converted on Q&A and Sky.
@Bludging
Here is a possible list of teal gains.
Kooyong
Goldstein
Nicholls
Monash
Grey
Curtin
Mackellar
North Sydney
Wentworth
Bradfield
Hume
Cowper
New England
Hughes.
Albo’s pants too short. Tomorrow’s headline?
Lol sprocket . Morrison continues to show he is no leader but a liar and a coward
alias:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 8:05 pm
[‘Mavis, I’ve seen two main theories:
1. One of the liberals in the court was so outraged by the draft opinion that they wanted to put it out there in public to provoke public outrage/ political action etc
2. One of the conservatives put it out there because CJ Roberts was supposedly trying to persuade the hard-line conservatives to agree to a more modest reversal of Roe. The theory here is that by leaking the opinion, the battle-lines are made public, and it’s harder for the five (Alito plus the hard-line other four) to alter their opinion.’]
A very good critique, though with Gorsuch, Kavanagh & Coney Barrett, abortion rights are at severe risk. I’m of two minds, but I’m not a woman.