A particularly random assortment of federal election developments:
• A third and final leaders’ debate will be held next Wednesday by the Seven Network, starting at 9:10pm (when Big Brother ends, in case you were wondering), to be moderated by Mark Riley. The second will be on the Nine Network at 8:30pm on Sunday.
• The Australia Institute has published a uComms poll crediting independent Zoe Daniel with a 62-38 lead over Liberal member Tim Wilson in Goldstein, with Wilson even trailing Labor candidate Martyn Abbott 53-47 on two-party preferred. Including results of a forced-response follow-up for the 6.3% undecided, the primary votes are Tim Wilson 34.5%, Zoe Daniel 34.3% and Martyn Abbott 14.3%, with the Greens on 8.9%, the United Australia Party on 3.2%, the Liberal Democrats on 1.9% and One Nation on 1.8%. Further questions find support finely balanced on who Daniel should support in a hung parliament should it come to that, and Scott Morrison viewed less favourably than Josh Frydenberg but more favourably than Peter Dutton. The poll was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 855. An unidentified Liberal spokesperson cited by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review described the result as “absurdly low” for Wilson.
• The Age/Herald had a follow-up result from the recent Resolve Strategic poll showing Labor’s carbon emissions policy, once explained, was supported by 45% and opposed by 30%.
• David Penberthy of The Australian reports that Rachel Swift and James Stevens, respectively the party’s candidate for Boothby and member Sturt, could emerge as the Liberal candidate for the looming state by-election for the safe Adelaide seat of Bragg if defeated on May 21.
• I noted the other day that Labor had made an exception to its general rule of putting the United Australia Party second last after One Nation on its how-to-vote cards in the seat of Dawson. This turns out to apply across central Queensland, where the party would evidently like it to be known that it is not directing preferences to the Greens. Other curiosities among Labor how-to-vote cards include the Liberal Democrats being put ahead of the Greens in Paterson, perhaps reflecting similar sensitivities in the Hunter region, and the Nationals going ahead of the Greens in the regional Western Australian seat of Durack. I’ll have more on preferences in Crikey later today.
• The ABC’s Media Watch had an item on Monday on the hot topic of the accuracy of opinion polling. It quoted my own assessment of the polling situation from the start of the campaign in Crikey, since which time the consensus has moved from Labor winning three seats in Western Australia to possibly two.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports the Australian Electoral Commission will provide telephone voting, using a system in place for blind and low vision voters, for those who test positive to COVID-19 – currently amounting to about 40,000 a day – between the close of postal vote applications on May 18 and polling day on May 21.
• Ben Raue at The Tally Room offers instructive charts recording the rise of pre-poll voting over the past two decades and changes in vote types since the onset of COVID.
Lars,
You cannot wave away the 4 Corners expose on Aspen Medical with a simple “notwithstanding” and imply that Greg Hunt was “hopeless” and made “poor decisions”.
4 Corners presented a very strong case that Hunt was corrupt in handing a $1B contract to his Liberal uni mate. There were competitors with better track records in this space (Aspen Medical had none according to the former chair) that did not get a look in.
To suggest this was just hopelessness is insulting to the intelligence of anyone who would care to look at the facts of this case.
Aspen Medical being given this contract with their lack of track of record, their Liberal Party connections and extraordinary and unethical leg-up by the relevant Minister at the time IS EXCEPTIONAL and not unexceptional as you term it.
This story/ rumour surrounding Frydenberg and Rachelle Millar will want to have a sound basis in fact or there’s going to be some bankrupt Twitteratti and citizen journos
Freya
Aren’t you just a little bit fascinated by how this will all turn out.
Burgey – In which case, let us not talk about it here as we like this place and want to keep William out of trouble.
There did use to be an electorate called Darwin. But it was in Tasmania.
Pointless election fact #42: Richmond, Flinders and Cook all share a name with a state electorate, but not in the same state. (NSW/Vic, Vic/SA and NSW/Qld .)
Also, until about 15 years ago there were two Moores and two Stirlings in WA – none of them overlapped.
Oakeshott Country:
Interesting article on that here:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/northern-ireland-government-formation
On current polling that’d mean SF/DUP get the gig, because while Alliance are almost coming second as a party, the “other” bloc (including Greens, independents etc) is a distant third.
I get the feeling the current system was designed by assuming NI is heavily polarised between unionist and republican, which would’ve been more true in 1998 than it is now. If “other” ever wins with a big majority, it’d be a sign power-sharing isn’t needed any more, and they can just have a normal democracy. That’d be nice to see.
Lars
Didn’t know about repatriating Tyrone and Fermanagh but after Bloody Sunday William Craig certainly called for the cession of the bogside and West Bank of Derry.
At the same time the Republic was considering Exercise Armageddon, in which the Army (described as having WWI administration with WWII weapons) would invade the North. It was pointed out that this would produce a NATO response
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Armageddon
In the end Haughey decided it was easier just to buy the IRA some guns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_Crisis
King of Malley – Aspen is the only company in the world to be certified as a medical team for infectious disease outbreaks byWHO.
What would you have done ? Don’t worry about the pandemic – we need to hold a full tender process first before getting you involved
Hey @William Bowe, what’s the point of internal polling?
First Dog on the Moon latest https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/04/heres-how-to-make-prime-minister-scotts-classic-no-cook-chicken-korma
Bird
Good Friday Agreement was just kicking the can down the road without looking at the real issues.
It is crazy that Northern Ireland schools are still segregated.
I am sure that the people who agreed to Good Friday assumed a Unionist domination until the 2040s by which time they would all be dead and some one else would have to sort out the mess.
For various reasons it is coming 20 years earlier
Pointless Election fact #43: Joseph Cook is the only dead PM without an electorate named after him. The division of Cook is named after James Cook.
I can’t see why they don’t just change who it is named after. This happen with the County of King in Washington State was named after William King, who is best known for being the shortest serving US Vice-president to die in office, but is now named after Martin Luther King Jr.
The did the old switch-a-roo with the seat of Fraser too – there used to be a Fraser in the ACT named after Jim Fraser but after Malcolm Fraser died a new seat called Fraser was created in Victoria and the ACT seat became Fenner.
Parties believe it can help them win elections if they know, or think they know, how people are considering voting and why.
B.S.Fairman – in time this can be remedied by renaming the existing Cook to Morrison and changing another seat to Cook.
[laughtong says:
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 4:00 pm
I recall with one of the previous Federal elections there was a site that allowed you to work through and print out your senate preferences. I found it rather helpful. Has anyone seen something like that for this year?]
Laughtong – senate voting card creator
https://www.finder.com.au/senate-voting-card-creator
Bird of paradox says:
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 9:54 pm
Pointless election fact #42: Richmond, Flinders and Cook all share a name with a state electorate, but not in the same state. (NSW/Vic, Vic/SA and NSW/Qld .)
Also, until about 15 years ago there were two Moores and two Stirlings in WA – none of them overlapped.
中华人民共和国
Richmond, Flinders and Cook are also all Shire Councils in Queensland.
Whilst the State seat of Cook still exists, the State Seat of Flinders was abolished to become Charters Towers in 1992. The last sitting Member for Flinders was Bob Katter who had held the seat since 1974.
Lars,
I happen to have over 15 years of experience in tendering for government work. This is what I would have done.
When you are in a tight spot and need a supplier fast you run a private tender by invitation. This can be efficiently done by selecting a small number of suppliers who have the best track record in the space you are tendering for. Responses can easily be sourced within 2 weeks (3 weeks is the norm) and a decision made within 1 week (or even a day) after that.
To not do this and award the contract to a supplier who had little or no track record in the space and to ignore other competitors who had superior track records is indefensible.
BTW please do not conflate being accredited for infectious disease outbreaks with being able to produce PPE at scale.
B.S.F who can forget the furore in QLD when people thought the electorate of Wright was being named in honour of Keith Wright (former Labor leader, paedophile etc) and not Judith Wright , poet.
B.S. Fairman @ #347 Wednesday, May 4th, 2022 – 9:49 pm
Would you say that about the ACT too? 🙂
Freya – Got to wait until he is dead. Not just politically dead.
He is only in his early 50s so he has many more church services to go before then.
King OMalley @ #365 Wednesday, May 4th, 2022 – 10:13 pm
I seem to remember that Australia had a PPE manufacturer but they were unable to get a contract with the federal government?
Cat – Any place that classifies sex work as a light industry is a bit crazy.
I bet the seat of Howard will be centred around Earlwood. So that means Barton will be renamed and Barton will go somewhere else?
Wow, this is fun. Rudd will have to be in Queensland and Gillard in SA, plus Keating in NSW, you would think?
B.S. Fairman @ #370 Wednesday, May 4th, 2022 – 10:17 pm
True. It should be a heavy industry. It’s hard work!
If the ultimate fall out from inflation (noting the contribution of government toward this as it tries to buy – bribe – its way back into government replicating 2007) and the history of flat to recessionary wages growth over 10 years and interest rates going up is a recession, what then?
There are schools of thought that there is the prospect of a recession at some point in the cycle (there always is)
The analysis of Indices movements refers to recession fears as a drag currently – at least by some commentators
With this prospect, are central banks increasing interest rate settings such that they have ammunition to respond to a recession when the cycle delivers that recession?
So the tools of reducing interest rates and expanding the Balance Sheets of Central Banks are in the armoury and not maxed out already
A better men behind the wire! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZNrAMhEEcY
OC, as my Irish grandmother used to frequently say to me whenever I was a naughty child, ‘may the curse of Cromwell be upon ya’. Old Ironsides still has a lot to answer for. In fact, Cromwell and Putin have a few things in common from a bullying character trait, a propensity to covet other people’s lands and manic religiosity. Cromwell’s Puritanism matches Putin’s Orthodoxy in their intolerance and narrow world view.
Wouldn’t Gillard be in Victoria given she represented Gellibrand (Vic)? It’s like Curtin, John Curtin was the member for Fremantle, brought up in Victoria but represented a WA seat, and Bob Hawke was the reverse.
Gillard was Lalor… and yes, Curtin was from VIC but was MP for Fremantle.
Pointless Election fact #11: Franklin is the only electorate that is discontiguous. The spell checker doesn’t think that is a word.
Actually that is not true, as the minor territories of Norfolk Island, Jarvis Bay are included in ACT electorates and Christmas Island and the Cocos Islands are in Lingiari. So….
Pointless Election fact #11b: Franklin is the only federal electorate in a state that is discontiguous.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 10:21 pm
I bet the seat of Howard will be centred around Earlwood. So that means Barton will be renamed and Barton will go somewhere else?
Wow, this is fun. Rudd will have to be in Queensland and Gillard in SA, plus Keating in NSW, you would think?
……..
Gillard could be a Victorian seat, based on where she was an MHR. The new seat of Hawke is in Victoria and Whitlam is in NSW even though his childhood home is in Kooyong
It’s also the seats don’t necessarily have an overlap with areas related to the person in their life. I’m pretty sure Wills and Hawke don’t overlap, let alone Whitlam, south of Wollongong versus Whitlam’s seat of Werriwa.
Seats named after Prime Ministers will always be in the state where their seat was, but not necessarily in a part of the state they have any connection to – the last three such seats in Victoria (Gorton, Fraser and Hawke) have all been safe Labor seats in Melbourne’s western suburbs, because that’s where the new seats in Victoria are being created with population growth (obviously that option isn’t available in states that aren’t getting new seats).
Lars and OC
Not getting ahead of ourselves a little are we? Poll misses have been a bit of a thing in recent years. Not only that, but one poll had the difference between SF and the DUP at two points. The DUP could potentially lose on primary votes, but if close enough, still end up with the largest amount of seats.
Pointless Election fact #14: In 1984, in order to elect the correct number of senators in the enlarged senate, there was 7 quotas per state; the most for an half senate election.
Hence the Nuclear Disarmament party got a senator.
Ah yes, the new seat for a former PM, now deceased, needs to be in the State they represented.
So, Rudd in Queensland; Keating in NSW; Gillard in Victoria; Howard in NSW and Keating in NSW.
cat,
For many blokes it doesn’t take much time at all.
GG! 😆
Upnorth: that’d mean there were three different Flinders for a while, then. (The other one covers the Eyre peninsula in SA.)
The AEC will have a headache trying to find ways to shoehorn Howard and Keating onto the NSW map. They had enough problems with McMahon – original plan involved merging Reid and Lowe and renaming it McMahon (he was MP for Lowe), but Reid was a PM too, so Prospect ended up getting renamed instead.
Hawke would’ve made a decent name for a WA division. Bob’s uncle Bert was WA premier in the 1950s, so it could’ve been named for both of them (like Hasluck). Then there’d’ve been three divisions named after WA premiers (the others are Forrest and Brand). O’Connor could be but isn’t: Ray the premier ended up in prison due to WA Inc; CY was an engineer who designed the Kalgoorlie pipeline.
Yet another pointless fact: Qld has the most division named after former premiers, with six. (Dawson, Dickson, Griffith, Herbert, Lilley, Ryan.) It’s a big state without many dead PMs to name them after.
The US trade deficit expanded by 22% in March to $110 Billion
Someone is buying
Noting supply chain interruptions for the reasons identified
A fuller analysis will be of interest
This data is the headline only
Freya Stark,
“The ultimate scenario is if [Sinn Fein] could overthrow a Tory government by changing their stance on the latter which almost happened in 2017 – that would show whether they really had teeth.”
That reminds me of a pre-election occasion when the Rev Ian Paisley was bellowing from his Free Presbyterian pulpit. He was excoriating any backsliders present in the congregation who were lukewarm in their support for him in the election.
Rev Ian: “And anyone who does not vote for me in the election will be damned for all eternity…I can assure you that for anyone in this category there will be copious amounts of weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth…”
A little old lady in the front pew, pretty much deficient in the dental department, sheepishly addressed his holiness: “Rev Paisley, what happens if you don’t have any teeth?”
Rev Ian reassures her and any other malcontents in the gathering: “Teeth will be provided!!!”
Bird of paradox @ #791 Wednesday, May 4th, 2022 – 10:42 pm
Hard to see any future Qld state electorates being named after dead Premiers. The last one was Nicklin and so next cab off the rank would be JBP.
The AEC simply replace the name of an existing electorate if there is no new electorate. They have been lucky with Victoria growing that Fraser and Hawke were add as new seats. Whitlam used to be the Division of Thorsby. The electorate can be anywhere in the state where they served.
The AEC has rules that “federation” electorates should be kept so anything from 1901 (or 1903 in SAs case). Indigenous names and PM named electorates should be kept. So my guess is something like Berowra (created in 1969) will be renamed Howard when he dies and stops growing his eye brows.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/04/federal-election-minus-17-days/comment-page-16/#comment-3891193
Actually Lord Howe Island is in Sydney, quite a long distance from the mainland part of that electorate.
That means that Sydney is one of only 4-5 multi timezone electorates (the others being Bean, Parkes, Lingiari and (unofficially?) O`Connor).
I am not convinced that internal polling is even a thing in Australia. In 20 years of major party marginal seat campaigns I never saw internal polling mentioned, not once. There has never been any actual internal poll data released after a campaign, by any Australian political party, to my knowledge, ever. (There has been a bit by issue-based 3rd parties, but it uses the same polling companies as everyone else and they’re either relatively transparent about the source or it’s just a crappy web poll of no value whatsoever.)
Furthermore, there is no reason for parties to do internal polling, it just duplicates exactly the same information that the media is already giving them for free, and there is no reason to imagine that political parties would be any better at polling accurately than companies that do it as their full time business.
Also, there’s no data you get from knowing who is ahead in a race that any political party can meaningfully use. For the most part you’re either winning or you’re not and throwing a couple of extra mailouts into people’s letterboxes is unlikely to change anything around those numbers. Further, targeted seats are determined at the start of the campaign and most of the money is already spent by the time a mid-campaign poll drops, while redirecting the leader or minister to a local marginal seat tennis club is never going to sway more than half a dozen votes halfway through a campaign, all that creates is a bit of colour for the nightly news.
Political parties do do some focus group work on messaging, as with any advertising campaign, but as far as I’m concerned “internal polling” numbers are just an easy media drop for campaign directors who are looking to influence some media narrative for the day, or just to buy a bit of favour or goodwill from a pestering journalist in exchange for a bit of “inside information”, the entirely made up details of the mythical internal polling data is thereafter eaten up by journalists desperate for another hook against which to generate a few extra column inches.
Pointless Election Fact #76: The 1955 federal election was the last general election in which there was uncontested electorates (10 in fact, all conservative). I am guessing that a lot of ALP branches were in a state of chaos due to the split. The Country Party won two seats in WA without getting a single vote in the state.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/04/federal-election-minus-17-days/comment-page-16/#comment-3891199
The 1949 election was also a 7 senator per state election as the Senate was being enlarged from 6 Senators per state to 10 per state, in one go.
Expanding the Senate over 2 elections, avoiding the need for short term Senators, is an untested option but is perfectly constitutional.
Internal polling does exist, it’s also usually electorate-level tracking polling – along with focus-testing.
Yes, Tom but it is an off shore island and the Geospatial information file has all the habour islands in Sydney and then this big long loop out to Lord Howe. So does that count?
Parkes is also across time zones as the City of Broken Hill is on Central Australian Time.