A particularly random assortment of federal election developments:
• A third and final leaders’ debate will be held next Wednesday by the Seven Network, starting at 9:10pm (when Big Brother ends, in case you were wondering), to be moderated by Mark Riley. The second will be on the Nine Network at 8:30pm on Sunday.
• The Australia Institute has published a uComms poll crediting independent Zoe Daniel with a 62-38 lead over Liberal member Tim Wilson in Goldstein, with Wilson even trailing Labor candidate Martyn Abbott 53-47 on two-party preferred. Including results of a forced-response follow-up for the 6.3% undecided, the primary votes are Tim Wilson 34.5%, Zoe Daniel 34.3% and Martyn Abbott 14.3%, with the Greens on 8.9%, the United Australia Party on 3.2%, the Liberal Democrats on 1.9% and One Nation on 1.8%. Further questions find support finely balanced on who Daniel should support in a hung parliament should it come to that, and Scott Morrison viewed less favourably than Josh Frydenberg but more favourably than Peter Dutton. The poll was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 855. An unidentified Liberal spokesperson cited by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review described the result as “absurdly low” for Wilson.
• The Age/Herald had a follow-up result from the recent Resolve Strategic poll showing Labor’s carbon emissions policy, once explained, was supported by 45% and opposed by 30%.
• David Penberthy of The Australian reports that Rachel Swift and James Stevens, respectively the party’s candidate for Boothby and member Sturt, could emerge as the Liberal candidate for the looming state by-election for the safe Adelaide seat of Bragg if defeated on May 21.
• I noted the other day that Labor had made an exception to its general rule of putting the United Australia Party second last after One Nation on its how-to-vote cards in the seat of Dawson. This turns out to apply across central Queensland, where the party would evidently like it to be known that it is not directing preferences to the Greens. Other curiosities among Labor how-to-vote cards include the Liberal Democrats being put ahead of the Greens in Paterson, perhaps reflecting similar sensitivities in the Hunter region, and the Nationals going ahead of the Greens in the regional Western Australian seat of Durack. I’ll have more on preferences in Crikey later today.
• The ABC’s Media Watch had an item on Monday on the hot topic of the accuracy of opinion polling. It quoted my own assessment of the polling situation from the start of the campaign in Crikey, since which time the consensus has moved from Labor winning three seats in Western Australia to possibly two.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports the Australian Electoral Commission will provide telephone voting, using a system in place for blind and low vision voters, for those who test positive to COVID-19 – currently amounting to about 40,000 a day – between the close of postal vote applications on May 18 and polling day on May 21.
• Ben Raue at The Tally Room offers instructive charts recording the rise of pre-poll voting over the past two decades and changes in vote types since the onset of COVID.
845 comments on “Federal election minus 17 days”
I reckon the ALP has this election won. I see no way the Libs can come back from the mess Morrison has made. He screws up everything he touches and the Liberals were fools to let him become their leader. succession planning example this is not. The ALP in contrast always has leaders in waiting, developing talent instead of eradicating it.
Rowe v Wade was always going to go down, as one commenter on the issue pointed out. Although I do not quite remember which woman it was who said this, she did say that this is a day they always knew was coming, so the Democrats need to codify Reproductive Rights into Federal law, and women plus supporters need to get out to vote Democrat in the mid-terms.
The Democrats have to get rid of the filibuster and put Reproductive Rights on a solid foundation, not the shakey basis of an SC ruling. The zealots have been working for 50 years to overturn Rowe v Wade. They need to be comprehensively defeated.
Wow, apparently there is a way to have a smaller audience than Sky. “Dead, buried, cremated.”
I’m surprised the SC has gone down the route of a ‘states rights’ ban rather than a constitutional blanket ban. A lot of the religious zealots won’t like the fact that abortion will remain legal in 20 or so Blue states.
Presumably they are doing it this way so as to keep the culture war going in Blue states .. and also in Red states to make sure they go the whole hog and criminalise interstate-hopping for abortions for residents of Red states
“Boris betrayed us”: ‘From the Red Wall to outer London, are the Tories doomed in the 2022 local elections? .. voters across Britain prepare to give their verdict on partygate, rising bills and local services on polling day’
Maybe in homage to classic Big Brother the audience can vote to evict either Morrison or Albanese.
Will the second and third debates be live, or pre-recorded and televised at the later time? Who would want to wait until after 9pm to attend a political leaders debate?
They are getting desperate.
William, typo. Zoe Daniel not Zoe Wilson 🙂
The Australia Institute has published a uComms poll crediting independent Zoe Wilson
Itep, Morrison *is* Big Brother.
“William, typo. Zoe Daniel not Zoe Wilson ”
Maybe Zoe secretly married Tim over the weekend?
Oh, wait …
Overnight Durian tales
A student brought a durian back from San Francisco to our outer Bay Area lab, knowing my taste for it. The lab split 50:50 as to how to handle it (flush it or eat it) and so it went in to a fume hood with extractor fan running. Within an hour a HAZMAT team stormed the area having been alerted to a gas leak. Seems the extractor had been sending our toxic fumes to a neighbouring lab, likely for a decade or more. The chief HAZMAT officer was from the Philippines, who took it in good humour and requested a segment.
Favourite experience ? A tasting at durian farm outside Penang with dozens of varieties including a small red-fleshed wild type. Magic.
Freeze to the deeming rate is good for part pensioners but maximum rate pensioners are WORSE off as all their money in deeming accounts will have income frozen at current rates:
Seven’s election debate to air after Big Brother as prime minister snubs national broadcaster
The sounds of squealing from the rorters !
Since the federal election is lost for the corrupt lib/nats and their propaganda media units
All what they have left for the remainder of the campaign is personal smear attack
Re Confessions @6:01 ”Liberal senator Andrew Bragg has asked the charities regulator to urgently investigate whether the Simon Holmes a Court-linked Smart Energy Council should be deregistered…”
Should we deregister all charities with “Liberals” sitting on their boards or in management positions?
with Wilson even trailing Labor candidate Martyn Abbott 53-47 on two-party preferred.
That is rubbing it in for Tim Wilson , ironically a Labor candidate with the surname of Abbott
Indeed. I don’t remember hearing howls of outrage from Senator Bragg when the Guide Dogs CEO publicly spruiked for Josh in advertising.
Yep, just another wild shot by the Libs into the darkness hoping to hit something, anything.
The Kouk with a quiet reality check on interest rate rises…
Coverage of higher interest rates on 1st home buyers is pathetic.
If you bought a house 2 years ago, the value of your house is up 20 – 50%, depending where you live.
Your job security has improved with unemployment at a 50 year low.
Household incomes are up 7-8%
Morning all. Thanks for the rundown William. I find this interesting:
“ David Penberthy of The Australian reports that Rachel Swift and James Stevens, respectively the party’s candidate for Boothby and member Sturt, could emerge as the Liberal candidate for the looming state by-election for the safe Adelaide seat of Bragg if defeated on May 21.”
Why would the Liberals even consider this if they were confident of retaining Sturt and Boothby? And why give the nod to James Stevens, who is in danger of losing Sturt, a once safe seat, after one term. He has been the invisible man.
Steve777 @ #16 Wednesday, May 4th, 2022 – 6:50 am
No, we should, should Labor become the government, sack the board of the Charities Regulator and replace them with people other than Liberal lapdogs.
I hope you’ve signed up again to hand out HTVs in Sturt! Push! Push! Push! Labor over that line.
The Daily ToiletPaper…
The funniest thing about the interest rate rise yesterday was seeing Phillip Lowe being filmed arriving to the Reserve Bank…in a Volvo. Safe, very safe. 😀
It’s the perceived effect of the interest rate rise, and the fear and uncertainty in borrowers’ minds about future rises, that make yesterday’s announcement so politically disruptive. Perceptions usually trump reality in politics.
I don’t think Climate 200 is a registered charity (they are *very* clear & open about the fact they are a political fund raising org only), so the charities register is going to do what exactly? Deregister them?
Murdoch tabloids sowing panic –
Katherine Murphy is really enjoying this election:
After the rate rise blow, Scott Morrison suggested Australians had been preparing for it and had ‘strengthened their balance sheets’. The rhetoric felt ludicrous
I don’t think I’ve ever seen Bragg’s name in the media, apart from when he’s whinging about something trivial. He and James Paterson are chronic wastes of taxpayer funded salaries.
The Daily Telegraph site includes links to stories about:
– a Liberal candidate who will “protect” Hunter coastal communities from wind farms.
– A Labor Senate candidate’s “radical” past. Who know’s what that’s about, maybe she bought a copy of “The Tribune” when she was a teenager.
I thought i saw mention of an upcoming true crime podcast episode when i first woke up this morning, them daring traditional media to publish the well known secret first. People where guessing specific Liberal MPs
Now i cant find mention of it… maybe i got it wrong, or was deleted, but worth keeping an eye out.
Happy Star Wars Day, Albo!
Frydenberg is now trying to blame the RBA and Treasury for the interest rate and inflation rate rises announced as just “normalising” the economy. Yeah nah: this is not going to fly when you go fill up your tank, fill up your shopping trolly or buy a coffee or pay your rent or mortgage payments or pay your power bill ahead of the election. Its not normalising, it is called cost of living.
Yeah CM the Murferoo seems to be losing patience with Scomoe and his talking a lot whilst saying nothing strategy after starting the campaign in awe of his prowess. The pollster Peter Lewis in the guardian also gives him a serve as the devil who doesn’t care what people think of his less than honest tactics. He says we are losing sympathy for the devil. Can he really win when most think he’s more slippery than snake covered in Superfry?
Can anyone tell me what the Two Party Preferred numbers were for Labor when Kevin Rudd resigned in 2010 after Julia Gillard deposed him?
Prince planet @ #35 Wednesday, May 4th, 2022 – 7:31 am
More slippery than the sauce sliding off his uncooked Chicken Korma. 😆
”Can he really win when most think he’s more slippery than snake covered in Superfry?”
As slippery as an eel who’s just been appointed Professor of Slipperiness at Oxford University…
28 June 2010:
“Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor
Julia Gillard’s first Newspoll confirms the trend of other polls, with Labor’s primary vote storming back seven points to 42 per cent, but the yield coming mostly from the Greens (down five to 10 per cent). The Coalition vote is steady on 40 per cent. This results in a relatively modest shift on the two-party preferred vote, with the Labor lead increasing from 52-48 to 53-47 …”
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Summing up the effect of the interest rate rise on the election, David Crowe says, ”The rate rise forces a verdict on Morrison’s management of the economy and nine years of Coalition government. Morrison wants voters to trust him, Albanese wants them to blame him. Everything turns on whether the mood for change is greater than the need for reassurance.”
The Reserve Bank has waited as long as possible before lifting interest rates. Now it finds itself a long way behind, at a cost to many Australians, explains Shane Wright.
Stating the obvious, Ross Gittins says the election bottom line is that whoever wins, taxes will be going up, not down.
Tuesday, May 3, 2.30pm was a turning point in the 2022 election campaign. It also became the ultimate test of Scott Morrison’s credibility, writes Dennis Shanahan.
Peter Hannam opines that the shock interest rate rise shows Australia’s economic exceptionalism is fading.
‘Vote for us because we are not Labor’ is the most unfulfilling call to action in recent memory, laments Katherine Murphy.
In quite an excoriation of this government, Fred Cheney says, “I was deputy leader of the Liberals. The party I served has lost its way”. His article provides the real reason that people are supporting decent independents instead of Liberal members.
Professor of politics, Judith Brett, explains how the Liberals lost the ‘moral middle class’ and how the teal independents may well cash in.
Paul Kelly bemoans the “tribalisation” of Australian democracy.
It seemed only The New Daily saw the warning buried in the budget papers, but now the Reserve Bank has underlined it: Economic growth will be more than halved next year to a very pedestrian 2 per cent, among the world’s lowest, writes Michael Pascoe.
Michelle Grattan reckons the interest rate rise is a political wild card. She concludes by saying, “The government will ramp up its “don’t risk it” warning even further in coming days. Negative messages are powerful in elections. But whether Morrison, himself viewed so negatively by voters, can drive this one home is another matter.
Centre-left parties worldwide have struggled to reinvent themselves. These contributors to The Conversation look at what kind of ALP is fighting this election.
Anthony Albanese’s inability to recall the 0.1 per cent cash rate three weeks ago was considered to be a defining moment of this campaign. But the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision on Tuesday to raise the rate to 0.35 per cent was much more seismic, writes Phil Coorey.
Peter Martin explains why the RBA should go easy on interest rate hikes. He says inflation may already be retreating and going too hard risks a recession.
“Welcome to the high inflation and rising interest rate era”, writes John Kehoe who says that both sides of politics are utterly unprepared for this seismic shock that will reverberate for years, while households and investors must also buckle up for the big interest rate adjustment.
Scott Morrison’s pitch for power is “it’s better the devil you know” but is sympathy for the devil dwindling, wonders Peter Lewis in this interesting contribution.
John Lord wonders if, at the half way mark, Labor can feel confident of victory.
Now Morrison has opened a new front in the debate over a national integrity commission, declaring Australia could become an unrecognisable “public autocracy” if such a body is given too much influence over government decision-making.
The Guardian reveals that One Nation was still scrambling to find people to run for this month’s federal election just hours before the close of nominations, telling one prospective candidate to leave the electorate he was running in “blank” on his form while the party desperately tried to fill seats.
The Liberal campaign in this election is one of the most negative campaigns I have ever witnessed. Relentlessly, on and on they go, ripping personally into Anthony Albanese, hoping to halt what seems his unstoppable path to The Lodge. Graham Richardson writes that, as brazen as they are unabashed, their negative advertisements are all the Liberals have to offer. If anything, they confirm that the government is tired and has only anger and spite to offer.
Dave Donavan tells us about Morrison and the secret Pentecostal plan for world domination.
James Massola tells us that Tanya Plibersek has declared her relationship with Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese is “terrific”, batting away suggestions she had been sidelined during the ALP’s election campaign. The opposition’s education spokeswoman has also written to Prime Minister Scott Morrison asking for a debate on education policy – and for him to clarify whether Alan Tudge or Stuart Robert is the education minister.
Amanda Reade writes that the third and final election debate between Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese will air on Channel Seven next Wednesday – but not until after Big Brother which is scheduled to end at 9.10pm. Seven is launching the reality franchise on Monday and nothing, not even matters of state, will be allowed to bump Big Brother, she says.
The Andrews government is banking on booming economic growth to tackle rising state debt as it unveils a $12 billion election pitch to fix the state’s beleaguered health system, writes Josh Gordon after yesterday’s tabling of the Victorian budget.
The Morrison Government’s election campaign is a disaster, but the real story is still the state of the press, writes Joel Jenkins.
After almost a decade of health policy stagnation, Charles Maskell-Knight outlines the three most important issues a new health minister should address.
The arcane question of which Afghan soldier shot a dog in 2012 has been so thoroughly traversed in Ben Roberts-Smith’s defamation case against Nine newspapers that its particulars are elongating this already complex matter into something that resembles a string of uncooked sausages. Harriett Alexander writes that it’s worth explaining this in full because the upshot could discredit Roberts-Smith’s witnesses or, in the worst case, potentially implicate his legal team in colluding to provide a false alibi.
Michael Koziol reports that Liberal senator Andrew Bragg has asked the charities regulator to urgently investigate whether the Simon Holmes a Court-linked Smart Energy Council should be deregistered for what he called “clear, direct and repeated” breaches of laws forbidding charities promoting political parties or candidates.
One of the clearer distinctions between the parties in this election is that the Liberal Party has distanced itself from a constitutionally recognised Indigenous Voice to parliament while Labor has embraced it, says the SMH editorial which is concerned that progress far too slow on an Indigenous Voice to parliament.
A senior detective has been accused of being untruthful under oath and “moulding” evidence to fit with damning surveillance recordings played to him at an anti-corruption hearing. On the first day of the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission’s two weeks of public hearings, Detective Sergeant Wayne Dean admitted to accepting cash to act as an “informal mediator,” threatening to charge people if they didn’t settle private debts. Quite a start!
Charlotte Grieve writes that, in a scathing assessment of Australia’s corporate and political leaders, former National Australia Bank chairman Ken Henry has revealed the bank’s institutional investors pressured the board to cut costs after the banking royal commission.
The AFR explains Mike Cannon-Brookes’ stealth raid on AGL and how he plans to harness the power of derivatives and leverage to exert control of the company.
Oh my! Former Star boss Matt Bekier has acknowledged the casino repeatedly failed to manage risk and regulation, describing it as a “secretive and not transparent” company that followed the “letter of the law and not the spirit of the law”.
Live export is in the spotlight again as animal welfare and public sentiment take second place to the profits of a few key operators, writes Linda Paull.
Timid, worse than Donald Trump but better than the Coalition. That’s the verdict on Labor’s policy to combat multinational tax avoiders. Although large corporations have been subsidised through the pandemic like never before, they will still now enjoy years of tax-free profits thanks to gaping holes in Australia’s tax system. Here Callum Foote consults tax law experts.
Make no mistake: today’s leaked Supreme Court draft decision has the potential to completely reshape the social and political landscape in America, writes Farrah Tomazin who says the repeal of the right to an abortion would be Trump’s real legacy.
China has wrong-footed Australia with its Solomon Islands pact. Regardless of who wins the federal election, a rapid strategic assessment will be needed to adjust our national security priorities, writes Mick Ryan. He says China’s deal with the Solomons is an act of colonisation.
The ever-entertaining John Crace rips into Boris Johnson’s compassion-free Good Morning Britain interview which went from car crash to pile-up as he mansplained away his dishonesty.
From the US
Do your own googling.
C@t, he’s the Korma Chameleon.
Here it is, i have no idea other than this, but sounds dramatic given the timing. (it was posted yesterday, so i assume its out today)
“A message for the media. Tomorrow, @TrueCrimeWeekly
will be breaking a major political story which we know you are all waiting for. If you do choose to follow up this exclusive about sexual assault cover-ups involving one of ScoMo’s most senior MPs, we simply ask you credit us”
A triple ROFLMAO and eleventy 😆 ‘s for the Rupertarium’s Editor at Large and pontificator general’s comment.
There was a ‘meet the candidates’ forum in Blackwood (Boothby) on Sunday night. It was ‘climate change’ focussed.
Of the 4 candidates in attendance Jeremy Carter (Green) came across very well, and Jo Dyer (Independent) espoused very similar policies to the Greens whilst also being eloquent yet informal (in her :Uluru statement from the heart t-shirt’) but perhaps lacking in the details.
Louise Miller-Frost (Labor) appeared confident and sold the image of the ‘sensible middle ground’ on climate change, whilst Rachel Swift (Liberal) was left defending the indefensible. Clearly a woman of passion she tried to focus on the ‘We must solve the world’s problems, not just Australia’s’ line. She clearly wanted to go beyond the official Liberal policies, but was limited by it (or lack of it).
The forum was good natured and the (mostly grey haired) audience polite, but rather muted in applause for Swift.
Available on YouTube for anyone with 2 hours to spare.
No debate on our national broadcaster? This country really is going to the dogs.
Love the term Korma Chameleon Oliver Sutton – just posted it to twitter!!! Will try to get it trending!!!
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
A cash rate of 3.65% is priced into late 2023.
Another 330 basis points of hikes to come… maybe
If true would the media report it?
The 4 Corners expose case in point!