Anthony Albanese will today conduct Labor’s campaign launch today, a fact that I wouldn’t normally consider worth mentioning, such has been the decline of the ritual’s significance over the last few decades. However, Labor has increased the chances of the event being noticed by holding it in Perth, which will at least give his profile a badly needed boost in that city, where Labor is counting on picking up two or possibly three seats.
Elsewhere:
• The second leaders’ debate of the campaign will be hosted by the Nine Network next Sunday and moderated by Sarah Abo of Nine’s 60 Minutes, with questions posed to the leaders by Chris Uhlmann, David Crowe and Deb Knight, respectively of Nine’s television, print and radio arms.
• Labor’s how-to-vote cards can now be found on the candidate pages on its website. The Greens are second on all Senate tickets except Tasmania, where they are behind the Jacqui Lambie Network, presumably in the hope that the party will deprive a right-wing minor party of a place (or, less likely, third-placed Liberal Eric Abetz) while Labor and the Greens win three seats between them as before. As far as I can tell, Labor has the United Australia Party second last and One Nation last in every lower house seat with the curious exception of Dawson, where the United Australia Party is third behind Katter’s Australian Party and ahead of the Greens, which as far as I can see stands no chance of accomplishing anything other than compromising Labor’s national anti-Palmer message.
• Having spoken with “15 Liberal MPs in and outside the Morrison cabinet who are familiar with the Coalition’s election strategy and internal polling and who have campaigned in these seats”, James Massola and Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald report the party is “increasingly nervous” that it will lose Kooyong, Goldstein, North Sydney and Wentworth to teal independents. After spending the earlier part of the campaign in marginal seats in both Sydney and Melbourne, Josh Frydenberg will spend the remainder of it defending his own seat of Kooyong.
• Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review quotes Peter Beattie saying Labor has “lowered its expectations” in Queensland, and says Labor is “now working to ensure there is no net loss of seats in the state”. Labor nonetheless remains hopeful in Brisbane and Longman. Similarly, the previously noted Age/Herald report relates that “strategists on both sides now believe it’s possible no seats will change hands in Queensland”, and further offers that the Liberals are targeting Labor-held Blair, though perhaps in hope more than expectation.
• Liberal attacks ads portraying Anthony Albanese as a puppet of Dan Andrews reportedly reflect hopes that hostility towards the Andrews government over COVID lockdowns has damaged Labor enough in outer suburbia to put McEwen, Corangamite and Dunkley in play. Paul Sakkal in the Sunday Age reports that “internal Liberal Party research in seats stretching from Frankston in the east to Geelong in the west shows Andrews’ net favourability rating is between negative 10 and negative 20”. However, the report relates the view of Redbridge Group pollster Kos Samaras that the Liberals are “barking up the wrong tree because his polling suggests state Labor’s vote is, on average, 7% higher than federal Labor’s in seats with geographical overlap”.
• Josh Zimmerman of the Sunday Times reports that “internal polling” credits Labor with a “slight lead” in the key Perth seat of Pearce.
“yawn”
***
After watching that uninspiring cringe-fest, I can relate.
Upnorth @ #686 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 2:32 pm
Gotcha. Mad Mad.
A meat and potatoes presentation from Albanese and Labor. Nothing more, nothing less.
I thought more emphasis on repairing our international relations was needed though.
Lynchpin @ #692 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 2:35 pm
Coherent, yes. Really well crafted.
Bandt has to tell us where he plans to build a million homes because the Greens always oppose housing developments.
Albo did what he needed to do – the way he needed to do it.
Freya Stark:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 2:37 pm
[‘PM Dutton within 18 months regardless of who wins this month.’]
You must’ve missed a recent Tory leadership poll, which had
Dutton on 14%. He’ll never be the PM of this country.
Actually, Albanese is a better orator than most people think. I didn’t hear any “ums” in that speech that always plagued Howard.
Also, international relations are lower on the agenda than bread and butter issues like cost of living for the vast majority of the electorate who just want to keep their rice bowl and have some rice in it.
A solid B+ or even an A-.
Whilst I don’t disagree with you Rex, I don’t think the average punter is too concerned with international relations right now.
Albanese’s ordinary everyman-ness works in his favour I think; he’s real. It contrasts neatly with Morrison’s smarmy smug belief in is own specialness, not to mention his fancy dress party get-outs; he’s fake.
What would you rather have, a fake Rolex or a genuine Seiko?
Easy choice.
ffs Firefox, let up with the spam.
International relations might not matter amongst Morrison’s mythical base but it matters in the Teal targeted seats and seats like Higgins and Reid.
As an industrial reagent is where I think hydrogen will be most useful. Batteries have shown themselves better and cheaper for transport. It’s touted in that arena because vested interest wants to squeeze a few more years return from their zombifying assets producing so-called blue hydrogen.
The big vested interests are most aware that they are sitting on (sooner or later to be) zombie assets, otherwise they would not so resolutely propagate denialist propaganda. And Putin is unlikely to be the last to go to war to drive up the price of fossil fuels, and put off the transition
pi,
FF is so desperate he’s posting stuff from Bandt’s leadership mortal enemy.
Post-election trouble brewing for the Greens.
Gold from McGowan.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SquizzSTK/status/1520626203308134402
Genuinely funny.
A scare campaign on Dandrews is a good play for the Libs (so much so that I’m surprised it didn’t happen on day 1), there was an extreme amount of anger directed towards him over lockdown and they’ve been doing the propaganda groundwork on him for the last 3 years. It’s probably not an exaggeration to say that Dandrews is the most hated politician in the country besides Morrison to non-political people, and given the migration specifically to escape lockdown it’s going to resonate in enclaves outside of Vic moreso than inside it.
It’s kinda hard to explain if you weren’t around because his hands were clearly tied by circumstance, but the polarization was insane. The 2021 supposedly week-long “snap” lockdown that turned into several months of Delta was particularly rough and was when the protests really ramped up beyond a handful of the usual crazies.
Commentariat Uprising @ #714 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 2:55 pm
You sound like one of those ‘freedom’ warriors. 😆
[Commentariat Uprisingsays: Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 2:55 pm
A scare campaign on Dandrews is a good play for the Libs]
It’s working so well that Frydenberg is in danger of losing his seat.
I know plenty of people down there – they like Daniel Andrews far more than scomo.
Greensborough Growler says:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 2:53 pm
pi,
FF is so desperate he’s posting stuff from Bandt’s leadership mortal enemy.
Post-election trouble brewing for the Greens.
====================
I predict the next Greens leader will have a hyphenated name
Andrews is less popular than people here realize but it wont do Morrison much good.
The Andrews government is at that point of the election cycle where things start to deteriorate.
“You sound like one of those ‘freedom’ warriors.”
Not at all, I just know a few who were relatively normal people before the Vic lockdown.
upnorth : “I predict the next Greens leader will have a hyphenated name”
Maybe they’ll put two people in the job and hyphenate their names?
Commentariat Uprising @ #719 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 3:00 pm
Aha.. yeah rightio.
You onboard mandatory vaccines for high exposure workers ..?
Commentariat uprising
Nah. They just seemed normal. The pandemic has exposed the stupidity that was always there.
Andrews did not create the pandemic.
Their anger is all on them.
MB,
Says absolutely no one.
Do you enjoy embarrassing yourself?
Pi says:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 3:01 pm
upnorth : “I predict the next Greens leader will have a hyphenated name”
Maybe they’ll put two people in the job and hyphenate their names?
===================
Braa-andt-Hanson-Young would fit the bill
Covid has given us the pandemic of the stupid,
Mexicanbeemer @ #718 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 3:00 pm
Their polling suggests they’re going well.
But you’re entitled to your negative outlook I suppose.
Rex and GG
The polling points to a swing against the Andrews government
1 million affordable homes? I think I read in one of Firefox’s cut n’ paste efforts that they’ll be flogged off at $300K a pop (which I assume is some sort of ‘break even’ proposition).
That’s 300 billion dollars. Probably, given the real world, well over a 500 billion commitment in at least the public underwriting the cost of all of this. And of course, no information as to where these million homes will go. Not surprising given just how NIMBY the Greens base actually is.
Nobady takes the Greens seriously outside their 10% woke bubble. There is a reason for this. They also repulse middle Australians, who then punish Labor at the ballot box because of the assumed connection between Labor and being held captive to the Greens (which is a message that the Greens have on repeat broadcast).
ScoMo wins. yay! Ain’t life grand. That’s the script, anyways.
Hopefully not this time around. Baa-Andt and his dodgy mate SCOMO are both likely to be rejected s the fraudsters they both are. Good.
“FF is so desperate he’s posting stuff from Bandt’s leadership mortal enemy.
Post-election trouble brewing for the Greens.”
***
Hilariously out of touch as usual, GG.
This election campaign has really cemented Bandt’s leadership. No kidding hey, he’s been very impressive, even better than I was hoping for.
I live in Melbourne. I remember a bunch of meth-heads having their nazi picnics, and the murdoch gutter media egging them on, sure. If your head is in that space, I recommend consuming less of the murdoch gutter media.
The LNP has lost ground vs the ALP, not the other way around. The high point of Andrews’ support was during the pandemic, not the other way around.
“I know plenty of people down there – they like Daniel Andrews far more than scomo.”
Like I said, there was intense polarization. He was on TV literally every day for 7-8 months, some people followed him religiously, and some developed schizo levels of hatred. A lot of the latter fled the state once borders opened, so this isn’t even really about his definite popularity in Vic.
All I’m saying is that it’s a good scare campaign. Much better than any other scare campaign they’ve tried thus far.
And ironically, Victoria’ s economy is currently doing better than elsewhere.
Mexb, the last polling i saw of the Andrews ALP Vic gov was that they had increased their support since the last election where the LNP got thumped.
Peter Malinauskas came across very well on ABC24.
Commentariat paying tribute to Spencer Davis!
Commentariat rising and his feet are on the floor,
20 Liberals losing and I’d like to see some more,
Hey!
Even the polls that do show a swing against the govt still have the govt in a very strong position, just putting that out there.
Pi
There was polling in 202o that pointed to a swing to the government but that support has fallen back to about where it was before the pandemic and a swing against an eight year old government sitting on a thumping majority wouldn’t be a surprise.
Not true, this poll has support down:
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/labor-loses-ground-but-andrews-still-preferred-premier-poll-shows-20220406-p5ab6i.html
Note theyd still win on these figures, but it’s not true that the last poll had their support up.
Son of former vic Lib Premier
—-
Rob Ballieu
75% of Kooyong has now been door knocked. Seriously considering door knocking Higgins after 50k
#auspol #KooyongVotes #Mon4Kooyong https://t.co/OxyxzBJAEN
Kos Samaras
Fed Victorian Labor brand v State Victorian Labor brand. Two polls, two weeks apart, same polling company.
Fed 32%
State Vic 37%
I have a bit to say about the myth now doing the rounds.
https://t.co/eXANZ6n2CS https://t.co/9pJDmxMn79
Commentariat Uprising @ #731 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 3:07 pm
The anger in those facebook groups you read aren’t really a reflection of the wider Victorian community.
Victorians overwhelmingly took the advice of the health professionals and state Govt and are now getting on with their lives. The Libs have been attacking Andrews day in and day out for years with little to show for it. Are they sill enough to keep doing that ? Obviously yes.
Mavis says:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 2:43 pm
Freya Stark:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 2:37 pm
[‘PM Dutton within 18 months regardless of who wins this month.’]
You must’ve missed a recent Tory leadership poll, which had
Dutton on 14%. He’ll never be the PM of this country.
———————————————————
Dutton – leader of the LRP Opposition in 22 days, you mean.
Mexb, I’m under no illusions that the ALP will maintain their significant advantage in the parliament if for no other reason, than that the LNP was so overwhelmingly thumped at the previous election.
But the LNP in Vic is like the keystone cops. They are so far behind. And in case you haven’t noticed, they’re getting belted by the independents too. In Victoria. In what used to be safe LNP seats.
Hyphenated….not Hyphenated it will not be relevant as that eternal viewing of the real world from the cross benches beckons