With the first postal votes being sent out this week, crunch time is arriving for parties to determine their how-to-vote cards, a much overrated yet not entirely insignificant feature of Australian election campaigning. First out of the block are the Liberal Party, whose how-to-votes are featured on the candidate pages of its website. These are in most cases tokenistic, since the preferences of Liberal candidates are usually not distributed, but it’s interesting to note that teal independents have been put last in Warringah, Goldstein and Kooyong, and behind Labor in North Sydney and Curtin (though not Wentworth). More consequentially, though not unpredictably, the party’s how-to-vote cards have Labor ahead of competitive Greens candidates.
The Liberal Senate tickets have the United Australia Party among the six parties recommended for numbering in every state except (wait for it) Western Australia: Palmer’s party is placed second in Victoria and Tasmania, third behind the Liberal Democrats in New South Wales and third behind One Nation in Queensland (the taboo against preferencing that party being very much a thing of the past). Pressed about the matter by The West Australian last month, Scott Morrison said: “I don’t believe there will be a deal and that is certainly not my expectation and it is certainly not my request.” However, he conceded it was a “matter for the party organisation”, and certainly didn’t stake his authority on the matter.
The party’s Queensland ticket offers a useful boost to Pauline Hanson, placing her ahead of Clive Palmer at number three and Campbell Newman at number four. Nonetheless, One Nation is directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberal National Party in Longman, which helped swing the result Labor’s way when the party last won the seat in 2016. Conversely, preferences are being directed to Warren Entsch in Leichhardt, contrary to suggestions he would be among a number of Liberal moderates targeted in relation for a sixth placement on the Liberals’ Tasmanian ticket. Those have turned out to be Bridget Archer in Bass, James Stewart in Sturt, Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney, with only the former seeming like a seat where the party is likely to attract much support. It is not clear from media reports if the teal independents are ahead of the Liberals in Goldstein and North Sydney.
MaccaRB,
I’ll be the Grey Teletubbie in a Dr Gordon Reid t-shirt. Come and say hi! 🙂
Thank you BK!
Sandman,
Governing so as to not frighten the old horses will be a good start. 🙂
“Josh Frydenberg is speaking … about the challenge he is receiving from Monique Ryan, who he calls the “so-called independent”.”
A so-called ‘Liberal’ disparaging a ‘so-called independent’?
🙂
Looks like Josh Frydenberg doesnt like the concept of democracy all that much.
He is a very grumpy that his seat is under threat.
Katherine Deves says ‘I can win’
The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, has appeared on Sydney radio 2GB, where she has been defended by host Ben Fordham who has declared her “brave”
She came to the studio with security and she was asked if that was a result of the threats she said she had received, and what was the most challenging moment she had experienced.
The most challenging moment is you know, I have a family. I have stood up for public life and just realising the impact that the way my life was going to change. However, I think that being the representative for a community is a really important job.
And I’m willing to do that.
(Guardian live blog)
Hush “Puppies”.
Josh Frydenberg is a Victorian, but not for Victoria.
Oliver Sutton says:
Friday, April 29, 2022 at 8:20 am
“Josh Frydenberg is speaking … about the challenge he is receiving from Monique Ryan, who he calls the “so-called independent”.”
A so-called ‘Liberal’ disparaging a ‘so-called independent’?
____________-
To be fair Ollie, Dr Ryan has admitted being a former member of the ALP.
max
One of the drivers is the wealth effect. When I was young I was as poor as any of today’s young. Probably poorer than most of today’s young when I come to think about. My group hose had 6 people sleeping in two small bedrooms… etc, etc, etc.
There were three things that are different then from now.
We did not think it was unjust that young people were poor relative to old people.
We did not expect to stay poor. We expected that if we studied, lived frugally, worked, saved, invested, worked, saved, invested that we would eventually be comfortably off. (For the majority of us, this happened.)
Although we were poor we had skin in the game because of reasonable expectations for advancement.
OTOH, many of today’s young are just as poor as we were but have no prospects other than most likely to stay poor.
It is why I support (and happily pay) the progressive wealth tax by way of property rates in the ACT, for example.
Other than that, I believe it is cheating to offer hope to young people with a complete suite of free everything without actually demonstrating that the underlying policies have been rigorously analysed (as Nicholas promised the Greens have done last night).
This would at the most basic level include costings and budgeting for the individual policies. The total amounts of the Greens promises by now are staggeringly high, added as they are to existing cost trends for social security more generally. The trends are because of the Boomer bulge and the demand will inevitably outstrip supply whatever else happens.
Giving false hope is, in my view, cheating in politics and cheating the young.
‘Katherine Deves … has been defended by host Ben Fordham who has declared her “brave” …’
Indeed, crazy-brave.
“Dr Ryan has admitted being a former member of the ALP.”
You say that like it’s a bad thing, Lara von Tryhard.
”
Jaegersays:
Friday, April 29, 2022 at 7:22 am
Top Solomon Islands diplomat Lachlan Strahan absent for five months ahead of Chinese security deal. He was stuck in Australia with a broken back
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-29/aus-solomon-islands-diplomat-absent-months-ahead-china-deal/101023736
”
Sports commentators especially in AFL referring to a bad play say that play typify how things went wrong for that team during that game or season in general
Bit of news on the 7.30 Report
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/apr/29/sarah-ferguson-to-replace-leigh-sales-as-host-of-abcs-730-program
Interesting timing
—–
Biden declassified some documents pertaining to Saudi’s role in 9/11…and it implicated that the terrorists had state support. Very bad. https://t.co/H3vvOo5eOc
”
sprocket_says:
Friday, April 29, 2022 at 7:26 am
Has Morrison been lying to us about falling electricity prices? Almost starting to feel sorry for his train wreck of a campaign…
”
140% in Electricity prices in last 12 months. Way to go Morrison. No wonder Cost of Living is increasing at worrying pace.
Permanent stay (ie trial not to go ahead) judgment in Lehrmann delivered today at 4pm by Chief Justice McCallum.
I expect Lehrmann to not win and the trial to be confirmed (maybe at a later date).
Of course if Lehrmann is successful, this post should be forgotten or rewritten so I am right.
C@tmommasays:
Friday, April 29, 2022 at 8:20 am
Sandman,
Governing so as to not frighten the old horses will be a good start.
—
+1 Absolutely – the clear message in 2019 was dont you mess with my nest egg buddy !! That is why I don’t rate Bowen with any political smarts. He basically flipped the bird to the over 65s and said vote for the Coalition then, I don’t care. Moron.
from yesterday’s thread ..
Some reminiscing about the Portillo moment, although I was ‘up for Portillo’ it’s not in my top 4 of memories from the 1997 Labour landslide
1. Exit Poll at 10pm
2.Gain of Birmingham Edgbaston (first of the night) for the first time ever by Gisela Stuart – pity she ended up a rabid Brexiteer who campaigned for Boris in 2019 🙁 Labour still hold that seat 🙂
3.Gain of Basildon
4.Gain of Putney .. defeated Tory David Mellor losing it at the declaration and being heckled by James Goldsmith (Up Your Hacienda Jimmy!’)
__________________________________________________________
poroti thanks for the English seaside pics, including the ruin of the Brighton West pier – I’d no idea it was in such a bad way. Last time I was in Brighton in the early ’90s it was still substantially intact.
There’s a picture on Wiki of it from 1995. The Brighton Palace pier is still going strong though.
I know a few in Kooyong who over the years have contacted their local member and never, ever received a reply.
What’s that old saying about chickens coming home to roost? Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
So, Mrs Tony Jones to front 7.30? I wonder if the ABC will see the wisdom in putting Mr Tony Jones back fronting Q&A again? After looking at his replacements, he wasn’t that bad after all.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, April 29, 2022 at 8:38 am
So, Mrs Tony Jones to front 7.30? I wonder if the ABC will see the wisdom in putting Mr Tony Jones back fronting Q&A again? After looking at his replacements, he wasn’t that bad after all.
—
At least Tony Jones (mostly) let people answer a question without interruption.
‘ News Corp Australia responded by publishing 45 articles in just two days attacking the public broadcaster …’
They don’t like it up ‘em!
somethinglikethat @ #71 Friday, April 29th, 2022 – 8:40 am
Exactly. And he didn’t think he had to make it all about him.
I get Morrison and co attempting to distract and benefit from culture wars in the form of Deves.
But seriously, especially those under 50. They have bigger fish to fry.
If they are in secure work, they will be able to ride out some of the inflationary pressures.
But those who have recently entered into big mortgages, will be taking a hit as interest rates continue to rise.
Culture wars should now simply be defined as between good and bad. Moral and immoral.
Those who support deves are not on the side of good. Fancy willing to shit on very vulnerable people for political power and gain.
Immoral doesnt even begin to describe it.
Its disgraceful.
Jason Clare zinger: where’s Alan Tudge? Even Scooby Doo couldn’t find him.
Victoria @ #64 Friday, April 29th, 2022 – 8:30 am
The rumour was out there from the very beginning.
C@tmommasays:
Friday, April 29, 2022 at 8:38 am
So, Mrs Tony Jones to front 7.30? I wonder if the ABC will see the wisdom in putting Mr Tony Jones back fronting Q&A again? After looking at his replacements, he wasn’t that bad after all.
____________________________________
I’ll take that as a comment.
Victoria @ #74 Friday, April 29th, 2022 – 8:46 am
Deves is a Rich White Female. She doesn’t care about the proles.
C@t
Yes. But declassifying them now during the Russian invasion of Ukraine is quite interesting.
Socrates
“ From the Solomons Chinese aircraft could control the gaps between New Guinea and New Caledonia. Exactly why the Japanese occupied them in WWII.”
I agree entirely and the Chinese, with the help of an ignorant and incompetent Australian government, are playing the long strategic game so we’ll. The fact that so many haven’t seen this and still can’t see it is disturbing.
If Queensland repeats the result of 2007 (~51% ALP, as suggested by the current opinion polls), it will be because not only the LNP but also Palmer and Hanson will lose voters….. and I do expect that.
Of course, I’d rather Barrie Cassidy fronted Q&A. He’s probably been asked but declined. 🙂
BK
Thanks for the dawn patrol today.
Alpo and other Banana Benders,
Do you think the prospect of having a Treasurer from Queensland, prospectively, will have a positive effect on the outcome up there?
C@t
Of course she doesnt care. As i said. This isnt about believing in a cause per say. She is on the side of bad and immoral.
She is a piece of crapola.
And ben fordham calling her brave tells you everything you need to know about him.
[C@tmomma says:
Friday, April 29, 2022 at 8:50 am
Alpo and other Banana Benders,
Do you think the prospect of having a Treasurer from Queensland, prospectively, will have a positive effect on the outcome up there?]
That could be a positive for the alp and chalmers is an excellent local member and will be a great treasurer.
He is my parents local member and i think will male a great pm one day
Scott
“ sprocket_ says:
Friday, April 29, 2022 at 7:26 am
Has Morrison been lying to us about falling electricity prices? Almost starting to feel sorry for his train wreck of a campaign…
—————————————————–
If Morrison ever says the truth no one will believe him”
When I distill my many concerns about Morrison, it is this single act of continual pathological lying that most disturbs and disgusts me about him.
Albo is out of Iso.
i agree with oliver on this one so what if she was a labor member and has decided to run as independent as labor has no chance in coyong frydenberg nelly lost last time to yates craig kelley was liberal for 10 years and palmer was national party for 30 years and only left when abot would not let him run against Swon Grattin wrote a good atrticle on this saying the attacks on the teels are desberate and show the liberals dislike democrasy
If a member takes their seat for granted they deserve to be turfed.
on Deves maybi Morrison and Hawke could of thought about the impact on her family of runing a candadate who is transfobick plus what about a trans gender chield hearing from there prime minister that they are worth les and should be denied from main streeam sport and should be discriminated against Liberals never concerned them selves with palmers operation to help the liberals win the last election claiming he was not a liberal still tried the same in qld state election with the death tax luy but failed spectaculer one nation also acted as a liberal front then to plus there advantige in the msm
William, I would say that it’s not so much the taboo against One Nation is a thing of the past as that the Liberal Party has reconciled to the risk of losing the voters to whom it is a taboo in favour of pursuing the preferences (and outright votes, even) of One Nation voters.
The likes of Corey Bernardi and Craig Kelly have been tolerated within the Liberal Party until they chose to leave of their own accord and are as bad as Hanson anyway.
on Scott point apartfrom Fordims atempts to paint deves as the victem desbite morrisons initial two picks baird and Gladis so she was his third pick attackt government on there failure on energy and defence blaming Dutton and saying Tayler says bills will reduce evry few months but does not deliver and liberals are the worst government on fefence but desbite morrisons curuption mckenzey goes on attack on andrews
Thank goodness they didn’t give the 7.30 gig to Stan Grant, he is dreadful, as he proved last night, pompous windbag! And he’s so biased towards the Liberals too, Stuart Robert and Campbell Newman were allowed to take over that Q&A program.
I agree with C@t, Barrie Cassidy is much missed by me, so is Quentin Dempster.
David Crowe in today’s Nine Papers accusing Labor of a lack of imagination and not being bold enough. Um, Labor was quite bold in 2019 and we know what happened to them then.
Anyway media, just wait for the official launch on Sunday, I’m sure Albanese will have a few big announcements on cost of living/housing/education etc.
Victoria @ #85 Friday, April 29th, 2022 – 8:51 am
He’s a Liberal stooge with no empathy or ethics, I think sums him up.
how ever with labor agree that Albanese is not as effective as Charmers clare and wong so not shore how long he will remain pm sort of like tony abot Bernardi and christinson were even moor extreme then hanson in 1990s here all ready representd in politics she only stuck around because the media made her the vittem by atempting to silence her if they egnored her she would have gone away Willson tuckey and camble had similar views but media made the mistake of going to far on hanson which kept her around nio true modderits in liberals no petro Goergoeos left they were useful as moderit voters that disliked howard would vote for a moderit like mcfee not realizing they were keeping howard in power
“Albo is out of Iso.” he was on the the Today show on 9 just before 8:30 this morning and performed quite well IMO. The hosts were not at all hostile either.
If the High Court doesn’t accept the Taliban takeover as a legitimate reason why citizenship can’t be renounced in the foreign country their s44 interpretation is truly an ass that subordinates our law to other countries’ law. I think it would fly.
Monique Ryan should know she’s made the big time when that nasty fucker Leak is going after her directly.
until recently Fordim was modderit on these ishues was a sttrong suporter of gay marige and suportid trans gender seems like with his about face on hussar hill adopt any position to keep labor out of power was key in bringingdistroying her corear which was partly justified due to bulying yet had a interview with her a few weeks a go similar to deves painting her as a victem fubny media lyne when labor united is no pliberseck where is michaelia cash the aterney general in witnes protection and the worst minister in australia colebeck does not liberals that morrison is the most dis honist pm in our history but mat kean is a strong performer for libs
I figure Ch9 have Leigh Sales lined up to replace Chris Uhlmann