Federal election minus 29 days

Anthony Albanese in sick bay, ballot paper draws ready to go, and some public opinion data points of perhaps dubious provenance.

Facing seven days in isolation after testing positive for COVID-19, Anthony Albanese will “postpone a punishing schedule of marginal seat visits in the next week and instead do media appearances from home”, according to the ABC. That headline-grabber aside, there is also the following to report:

• The West Australian has a poll from Painted Dog Research showing Anthony Albanese leading Scott Morrison 54-46 as best leader to handle the economy, out of a sample of 1241 Western Australian respondents polled on Wednesday. Personal ratings were even better for Albanese in relative terms, his 38% approval and disapproval and 38% disapproval comparing with Morrison’s 26% and 55%. Asked “which is your least desired outcome from the election”, 39% went for a Coalition majority, 22% for a Labor majority and 39% for a hung parliament. It should be noted that this outfit’s accuracy has never been properly tested since it has never conducted voting intention polling, and its numbers are quite a lot difference from those of the last Newspoll breakdown, which gave both leaders a net rating of minus five in the state.

• In her weekly column in the Age/Herald, Niki Savva wrote yesterday that Liberal insiders weren’t raising their hopes far beyond a hung parliament, and believed themselves to be “in trouble in Bennelong, Reid, North Sydney and Wentworth in NSW, Chisholm and Goldstein in Victoria, Boothby in South Australia and a slew of seats in Western Australia including Curtin”. In the inner urban seats where the party faces an independent insurgency, Morrison’s net negatives were at “a horrendous minus 30” as the campaign began. Labor strategists acknowledged the possibility of a hung parliament, but believed the election was still “there for the taking”, depending on the quality of Anthony Albanese’s performance.

• The Greens are claiming they are poised to win the Brisbane seat of Griffith from Labor’s Terri Butler, based on 25,000 responses they have received through their door-knocking campaign. Labor may well be right when they dismiss this is a “Greens party hype campaign”, but the Greens claim the method provided an accurate measure ahead of their successes in the state seats of South Brisbane and Maiwar and the Brisbane council ward of The Gabba.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published finalised enrolment statistics following the closure of the roll on Monday. Another milestone on the road to the election is reached with the ballot paper draws at noon today in each division, hopefully to be followed in the afternoon by the full publication of candidates.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

858 comments on “Federal election minus 29 days”

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  1. Daughter has just gone into labour, only 7 months in, so a tiny little prem baby. Another proud South Aussie on the way….closing up the shop and on my way to the hospital

  2. Oh give us a f*cking break!
    Sharri Markson weaves a web of bullshit for Morrison to skid through.
    Morrison is out there doing spooky music claiming Marles has made chilling comments.
    Albo isolated & this weeks focus for journos is being hijacked from the Solomons f*ck up to claiming Marles some kind of Chinese operative.

  3. Another thing about Albo’s absence – it will allow/force Wong, Plibersek, Chalmers and Clare to get out to speak in his absence. They are good performers and it will demonstrate that the “lacks experience” attack on Labor is BS. They are all highly experienced.

    Wong in particular is perfectly placed to attack the governments abysmal foreign policy record on both China and Solomon Islands. And need we forget how badly they screwed up the AUKUS announcement with France.

  4. Macca RB @ #40 Friday, April 22nd, 2022 – 8:25 am

    Great graphic from The Herald-Sun.
    The Daily Rupert may run it here, too.
    It would even be credible if it stated, “How many of the respondents actually watched the debate”.
    At least another laugh on a dull and wet (surprise, surprise) morning at Nth Avoca.

    Hello MaccaRB, from Pretty Beach, down teh road on the glorious Central Coast! 😀

    Go Gordon!

  5. So the comments of Barry, formerly a Military senior, are not reported in the print media?

    He was scathing of government

    Including Diplomat appointments of former politicians instead of from the Public Service

    This gives credibility to a hobby horse of mine – the decay of the Public Service including by Secretary appointments

    And it does not stop there

    Look at appointments to NGO’s

    Rorts for mates writ large

    The ACCC is but one example

  6. Morrison blitzing the media in Brisbane this morning talking about the Solomon Islands stuff up. Making sure everyone hears about it.

    Blaming everyone else except his own indolence.

    Another example of why ScoMo is the best asset Labor has..

  7. Even if the comparison between the Democrats (a party focussed on Senate representation with “keep the bastards honest”) and the Teals (loosely organised challenges in lower house seats where the hardcore religious right Liberals are not a good fit for socially progressive, economically conservative electorates) was accurate, which it isn’t for the reasons in the parentheses, why would that be a bad thing? The Democrats were quite successful at establishing themselves as a 3rd force in Australian politics for 20 years or so (particularly since they were having to co-exist with the Greens and hunt for some of the same upper house voters) until after Cheryl Kernot’s defection to Labor exposed the leadership cracks in the whole edifice and Meg Lees, Natasha S-D and Andrew Bartlett managed between them to alienate both the centre-right and centre-left parts of their voting demographic in the space of two elections.

  8. Socratessays:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 8:46 am
    Another thing about Albo’s absence – it will allow/force Wong, Plibersek, Chalmers and Clare to get out to speak in his absence.
    _____________________
    You forgot Marles.

  9. US stocks tumbled and bond yields climbed as traders braced for the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by half a percentage point at each of its next three meetings.

  10. Political Nightwatchman @ #38 Friday, April 22nd, 2022 – 8:17 am

    ‘The strength of the Democrats was also in the Senate. They never did much good in the HOR.’

    Anyone knew why they were so popular in South Australia? I never understood the reasons behind that.

    One Nation in Queensland (decentralised larger regiomal/ rural population) and the Greens in Tasmania (forests) and then Victoria (tertiary educated Melbourne) you could understand.

    Steele Hall, a former Liberal premier of SA founded the Liberal Movement which provided the template for the Democrats

    The characterisation of the Democrats as some spontaneously arising middle force is incorrect. They were always a breakaway from the Liberals. It seems that centre right parties in Australia tend to drift to the right and have to be brought back to reality by a split.

  11. Greg Jericho spots the elephant in the party room …

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/apr/21/in-australias-election-campaign-the-silence-on-climate-is-deafening

    Under the current projections, both parties’ policies would see Australia breach its 1.5C carbon budget in 2028.

    Under the Coalition’s policy, by 2030 it would have used up 78% of the 2C budget, while the ALP’s 2030 target would see 70% of the budget used

    Those who claim this is “same same” may be perhaps overstating it. But those who claim both sides policies are inadequate are quite correct.

    And not just inadequate – disasterously inadequate.

    All of this deserves attention, rather than fear campaigns about costs or lost jobs.

    Instead, perhaps journalists could note the IPCC’s finding that “cost reductions in key technologies, notably wind power, solar power and storage, have increased the economic attractiveness of low-emission energy sector transitions through 2030”.

    And even more potent is the finding that “maintaining emission-intensive systems may, in some regions and sectors, be more expensive than transitioning to low emission systems”.

    Neither party can apparently hear the deafening cries of the climate scientists. Let’s hope they can hear the genteel whispering of the economists. If you don’t think that’s any more likely, there is another option – vote Independent.

  12. Macca RB
    which street in sleepy Nth Avoca?
    Better not be the party house in View St that keeps me awake on weekends
    Breakfast at the Boy and the Rose?

  13. I cant quite believe that some folk are saying that Marles should not have made speeches or written stuff in fear of being misrepresented. The topic of ‘managing ourselves in a China century’ is a complex task. An essential one to discuss at length: We need MORE not less contributions from political leaders and deep thinkers on this subject.

    The problem, as usual, is the cosy alliance between the MSM and LNP, especially under Morrison.

    From what I can tell at a glance, Marles hasnt said anything wrong at all: he was talking about development assistance and making the obvious point on that that IF we were to push back on relations with whom ever PI chose to partner with it would inevitably have a counterproductive effect. ‘Development assistance’ is NOT a defence, security and ‘policing’ agreement. Far from it. Furthermore, this is pure deflection from this Government’s complete indulgence and cavalier, parsimonious and neo-colonial attitudes and actions towards our nearest neighbours over the past 8 years.

    Labor should get behind Marles and seriously pushback on the bullshit that ScoMo is tagteaming with Shari: he should stalk ScoMo by ringing in to whatever radio station or TV network ScoMo is on and call him out on this from his Marrickville home isolation.

    This can only be a loser for Labor if it rolls over and hope it goes away: attack, comrades, attack!!

  14. The China – Solomon Islands agreement is hardly surprising, also it was something this Government wasn’t going to be able to stop.

    Why?

    The decision to start cutting Foreign Aid back in the 1st Abbott budget was always going to open the door for China to start sniffing around to try and find a weak point.

    Add to that the disrespect and arrogance shown by some in the Government towards the Pacific nations, it is hardly surprising they are becoming more receptive to approaches from a country like China.

  15. I posted last night re marles.

    It’s like I need to feel important and needed in this election,…..What can I say to make me feel I’m involved.

    Sometimes less is more. Because what ever you say can and will be misconstrued.

  16. At this point – Morrison is up to his eyeballs in this fuck up. What Marles said wasn’t unreasonable or comparable to this failure. Backing away from this, because of this, would be like being afraid of being out-played by a clown recently hit in the head.

    I just don’t want Marles speaking because he’s about as interesting as recently dried beige paint.

  17. Scott Morrison says there is “no credible information” to suggest China would establish a naval base in Solomon Islands, despite a warning from his Defence Minister.

    Peter Dutton and Barnaby Joyce have claimed the landmark security pact between Beijing and Honiara could lead to a military presence in the Pacific Island nation.

    But speaking to Seven’s Sunrise, the Prime Minister again shot down that suggestion.

    “There’s no credible information that would suggest that outcome,” Mr Morrison said.

    But host Natalie Barr wasn’t buying it.

    “Are you seriously sitting here saying you do not believe that China is going to put a base on the Solomon Islands?”

  18. Mrmoney @ #73 Friday, April 22nd, 2022 – 7:23 am

    I posted last night re marles.

    It’s like I need to feel important and needed in this election,…..What can I say to make me feel I’m involved.

    Sometimes less is more. Because what ever you say can and will be misconstrued.

    Anything can be misconstrued.

    It all comes down to the motivations of the respondent.

  19. Just read Sharri Markson attempt at a hit job. I think I need another shower.

    Shorter summary is:

    1. Marles acknowledges and even endorses self-determination for Pacific nations, and
    2. It is better to have China in the tent rather than out, as we would lose any bidding (or budding) war.

    Makes sense to me. The Coalition chose the opposite approach and just look at where we are now.

  20. Unlike here no new polling since mid-March
    Is the lack of interest the consequence of voting for a parliament that no one believes will ever substantively meet?

    This happened once before in Irish history- name the parliament

    Alternatively there was a report of the DUP claiming the pollsters were biased against them- a conspiracy sometimes seen on PB

  21. Is SI too hard to follow? To David Woo’s point does this get shorthanded to China China China by ScoMo and the Liberals?

    I think AE is right , SI is a gift Labor should attack, attack, attack! but whether their capable of prosecuting the attack is another thing.

    This election seems to have good days and bad days for both parties so far.

  22. I’m calling it for Labor. The general population is disengaged. It’s going to be interesting times ahead. Interest rates will be around 5% by the end of next year. People will be freaking out, blaming the new gov, even though they will have little control. But perception is nine tenths of the law. Meanwhile at the libs will be sad to see Frydenburg go. Probably the only talent in the party.

  23. Lol Christine Milne:


    Christine Milne AO
    @ChristineMilne

    How is the internal investigation going
    @GuideDogsVic
    or is that where the scandal goes to die until after the election?

  24. Amazeballs that Frydenberg seemingly cornered the market in all of the touchy feely charities – cancer, guide dogs and scouts.

    Avoided all of the controversial stuff. Didn’t see an endorsement from Broken Rites for instance?

  25. Oliver Sutton:

    “The Brisbane council … introduced legislation last May capping election signs to 150 for each federal candidate and requiring residents to register their address with the council before erecting signs …”

    Hard to see how this wouldn’t be seen as clearly infringing the “implied right to freedom of political communication” the High Court found existed. The Brisbane City Council, as an agency of the State of Queensland, says you can put up real estate signs but not political signs?

  26. Robyn
    @robynbryant33

    Oh for goodness sake
    @PatsKarvelas
    it’s not Labor’s worst nightmare. They have an amazing team who will all step up. What happens when you’re sick? Does your radio show completely fall over?

  27. “Centaur21says:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 9:35 am
    I’m calling it for Labor. The general population is disengaged. It’s going to be interesting times ahead. Interest rates will be around 5% by the end of next year. People will be freaking out, blaming the new gov, even though they will have little control. But perception is nine tenths of the law. Meanwhile at the libs will be sad to see Frydenburg go. Probably the only talent in the party.”

    There’s surely no better signifier of the lack of talent on the right in this country than Frydenberg being identified as a talent

  28. Labor giving at least two other alternative PMs a run this week while Albo’s laid up.
    Jason Clare up at the moment.

  29. “Lars Von Triersays:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 7:55 am
    Real Mark Latham
    @RealMarkLatham
    ·
    1h
    Now we find out in the Oz today that Marles has Encouraged the Chinese takeover in the Pacific Islands.
    Whose side is he on?
    What else has he been doing with the Chinese?
    The new Dastyari.”

    TAXI!!

  30. The Solomons …lovely place….very fast population growth, with lots of young people, most of whom have nothing much to do.

    Tribal social systems have been partly re-organised by the interventions of crazy-branch missionary colonists – by Adventists and delegates of the other prominent Christian brands. The people of the Solomons have been colonised several times over. They’re about to be colonised again by China.

    As in centuries past, colonisation in the Pacific will be a form of territorial expansion by the metropolitan power. China is in an expansionary mode, so we should expect to see more of this policy of expansion by stealth and by consent.

    We are really hopelessly unprepared and unwilling to respond to this. Doubtless China can see some attractive strategic pickings….the Philippines, PNG, Bougainville, the remaining island states of the west and South Pacific.

    Meanwhile, in Australia we are ruled by the most incompetent, lazy, weak, opportunist, arrogant. dishonest, ideologically-impelled and stupidly evangelical of governments. We should not be surprised that China is making such easy gains.

  31. Sunningdale met for a short time

    I was thinking of the Southern Ireland House of Commons established in the Fourth Home Rule Bill 1920. Sinn Fein won every seat except the 4 Trinity College seats. When the house was convened the 4 TC members met and adjourned without a quorum. Meanwhile everyone else was in the Mansion House sitting as the 2nd Dáil

  32. The Revisionist @ Friday, April 22, 2022 at 9:42 am

    Well, Frydenberg was good with a racket. Morrison should leave all the ball sports photo ops to him 🙂

  33. Press going at Clare over SI. They really dont like it when someone like him batts their best efforts away so so easily. Press are trying to get Clare (and will be other ALP) to criticize / contradict Marles.

    Clare handling it very well. Clare being assertive in handling the press and order of questions well and not letting the buggers interrupt. Jeez, he has the buggers giggling and basically eating out of his hand at the moment. 🙂

  34. Jason Clare showing up well.

    Oh Noes!!!! Betcha Sharri Markson gets an info drop on the imminent ALP #Leadershit in 4,3,2……1…!!!!!!

  35. Too obscure even for me OC.

    Sadly I think you may be right, no unionist is going to consent to a Catholic First Minister so no Executive.

    Still maybe they trade something on the Protocol in exchanging for recognising a Sinn Fein First Minister?

    Ironic that Donaldson ( who opposed Trimble so bitterly) may be forced into very much the same position as Trimble. All you need now is somebody saying “Well done Jeffrey”

  36. Socrates:

    Another thing about Albo’s absence – it will allow/force Wong, Plibersek, Chalmers and Clare to get out to speak in his absence. They are good performers and it will demonstrate that the “lacks experience” attack on Labor is BS. They are all highly experienced.

    I tend to feel Labor should explicitly call this out, too – the next time Albo is asked about his COVID diagnosis, he should say something along the lines of “my team is out campaigning, we’re an orchestra not a one man band”. It would bring to mind some of the duds on the opposing team like Taylor and Joyce, and it’s altogether too easy to imagine Promo in kitted out like Bert in Mary Poppins, crashing away on his cymbals..

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