The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 38% (down three) and Greens 10% (up two), with One Nation and the United Australia Party both steady on 3%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is down one to 43% and up two to 44%. Morrison had nudged into the lead on preferred prime minister at 43-42, after a 42-42 tie last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1531. It will have assuredly have included the usual battery of questions on response to the budget, which will be along either later tonight or tomorrow.
We also have the first Ipsos poll for the Financial Review, as foreshadowed in the previous post, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45. The published primary votes include an undecided component of 7%, with the remainder going Labor 35%, Coalition 31%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4%, United Australia Party 2% and others 8%. If the undecided are removed, this pans out to Labor 38.9%, Coalition 34.4%, Greens 11.1%, One Nation 4.4%, United Australia Party 2.2% and others 8.9%.
The poll features multiple measures of two-party preferred, the headline being “based on the 2019 flow, including those of the 7% of undecided voters” – I must confess to being a bit confused by this, but I believe what is offered is a conventional previous election flows measure. There is a similar measure that does not exclude the 7% undecided, which has Labor on 51% and the Coalition on 42%. A further measure is based on respondent-allocated preferences, but does not exclude either the 7% who were altogether undecided and those non-major party voters who declined to indicate a preferred major parties. This one has Labor on 48%, the Coalition on 37% and undecided on 15%, suggesting a third of non-major party voters did not indicate a preference.
Personal ratings are weaker for Scott Morrison than from Newspoll, and both leaders have higher undecided results. Morrison is on 33% approval and 48% disapproval, compared with 30% and 32% for Anthony Albanese. Preferred prime minister is similar, with Albanese holding a negligible lead of 38-37. The report notes that Morrison has 51% disapproval among women and 45% among men, while Albanese is at 26% approval and 31% disapproval among women.
The poll suggests a lukewarm response to the budget, with 29% rating they would be better off and 23% worse off, with 39% opting for no difference. Presumably there is a fair bit more to come from this poll, both in terms of budget response and voting intention breakdowns given the poll’s distinctly large sample size of 2563. It was conducted from Wednesday to Sunday.
UPDATE: The methodology disclosure statement from the Ipsos poll, including details on weighting and the full questionnaire, can be found here.
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#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 ALP 55 #auspol
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#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 31 ALP 35 GRN 10 ON 4 UAP 2 Others 8 Don’t know 7 Not enrolled 2 #auspol
Ipsos still exists!?
Shellbell, please explain.
I have no legal knowledge but assumed that there would be penalties associated with lying on a statutory declaration.
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#Ipsos Poll Albanese: Approve 30 Disapprove 32 #auspol
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#Ipsos Poll Morrison: Approve 33 Disapprove 48 #auspol
Meh. So much for a budget bounce. This is margin-of-error stuff at best, but most likely statistical noise, signifying that Budget hasn’t really moved the dial at all. And of course, it’s just a single poll, from which the small movement from last time may disappear in a fortnight.
The polling situation is more or less where it’s been all year: the ALP in the high 30s, the Coalition in the mid-30s, the Greens with their regulation 10 (leaving everyone else to share the remaining 15), washing out to a 2PP of about 54-46. As the Budget was the government’s last big set piece before the campaign begins, it’s hard to argue that they’ve stopped the rot, though we might start to get a clearer idea about that when the next Newspoll drops in two weeks – and by then the hustings will be underway.
Labor still big favourites to win, but the Libs are not quite out for the count just yet.
(Apologies for all the copy-paste)
Note that Morrison says he is PREPARED to sign a stat dec, not that he will.
Good point. I forgot to parse Morrison’s words very, very carefully.
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#Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Morrison 37 Albanese 38 #auspol
I believe that’s the first time Albo has been in the lead in any PPM poll.
Ipsos returns!
TPP: L/NP 45 ALP 55
Primary Votes: L/NP 31 ALP 35 GRN 10 ON 4 UAP 2 Others 8 Don’t know 7
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/liberals-to-start-from-behind-after-lukewarm-budget-response-poll-20220401-p5a9z4
Liberals to start from behind after lukewarm budget response: poll
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Apr 3, 2022 – 10.00pm
The Morrison government will enter the election campaign lagging Labor by up to 10 percentage points, according to an exclusive new poll, which also shows last week’s federal budget was given a lukewarm reception by voters and may not provide the boost required.
In the first of a new series of Ipsos polls to be conducted for The Australian Financial Review between now and the May election, Scott Morrison has a much higher disapproval rating than Labor leader Anthony Albanese, especially among women, but there is little difference between the two in terms of preferred prime minister
Can I just add that the Preferred PM result was a good one for Albanese.
Snap! Asha.
Ah, The AFR has revivified Ipsos for the duration. 🙂
As for the poll, it is perfect in my eyes. Something in it for everyone 🙂
There’s certainly a lot of disapproval for Morrison in both those polls.
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Pedantsays:
Sunday, April 3, 2022 at 10:02 pm
Lynchpin at 9.49 pm
The “dickhead” description is quoted here: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-puts-all-his-chips-on-the-budget-roulette-wheel-20220331-p5a9m5
”
From the above article: According to ‘Phillip Coorey
“If the budget shifts the polling dial even a fraction this weekend, there may be grounds for hope. Or despair if it does not.”
Polling dial has shifted a fraction. Infact ALP PV is down 3.
My interpretation of the the primary vote change is mostly Labor voters disgruntled about the internal party mean girls stuff and have parked their vote with the Greens for now.
I was expecting a bigger hit on Albos numbers because that’s what the media and Scotty were trying to hit with all the mean girls stuff, but it looks like it only registered a slight increase in dissatisfied of 2 which is the same as what went to the Greens.
LNPs primary still very bad either way.
Excellent results as we head into the campaign. The broad similarity between Newspoll and Ipsos is encouraging. And there’s enough spread between the pollsters generally to suggest we’re not getting the apparent herding that happened in 2019. We must be about due for Resolve and the fortnightly Essential will drop this week too.
Also note from Leroy’s post that Albanese is more popular to women. That’s understandable.
The willingness of scomo to sign a statuary declaration is interesting. The panic must be setting in.
It’s a pretty high risk move. If this were American politics, id expect Towke to be holding onto a voice recording of his slander. Or someone’s got something in hard evidence that makes the stat dec a foot gun for scomo.
Fantasy time:
I’m just going to dream about a situation where to try and put this to bed, the PM signs a stat dec, gets found out and is in breach of stat dec. Having committed a crime that’s serious enough, scomo is now no longer eligible to stand for parliament and has to resign. But all of this happens after the election is called and before early voting has begun.
As I have written this down, I am putting it out there into the universe. Reward me god!
I’m looking forward to seeing how the greens shake out in Tassie, I wonder if the state being led by a center right liberal may be eating some of their brand up. There’s not been much action down here from them in a while.
That AFR article unfortunately does that rather annoying thing nearly every article that accompanies a poll does, and acts as if the poll being reported on is the only one in the field.
Both polls taken together show not much movement. The libs can’t win if their primary vote is in the 30-35 range, and Scott morrison is still pretty strongly disliked in the public. ALP to win decisively imo, can’t see much changing the outcome
GA
You sign a stat dec on a condition of getting something in return eg a passport then the truth of what you say may be checked and a consequence flows from fibbing.
Towke and the PM signing stat decs is so they can say they have signed stat decs. It says nothing about their truth which won’t be checked.
According to the Australian – there is 13% undecided. So to win the 2PP vote ScoMo would need to win 2 out of 3 undecided voters.
The Ipsos polling suggests the reaction to the budget is neutral. A snippet from Coorey’s article:
“Although the poll found opinion to be evenly divided over whether the budget was both fair and economically responsible, 29 per thought they would be better off, 23 per cent thought they would be worse off and 39 per cent felt it would make no difference”.
Asha @ #71 Sunday, April 3rd, 2022 – 10:25 pm
It’s the one they paid for so they need to get their money’s worth out of it. Why would they dilute its value by referring to another poll?
Thanks Shellbell, but wouldn’t having tit for tat stat decs only encourage each side to go digging into their accuracy.
Is there a penalty attached to signing a stat dec that is untruthful in a situation like this?
I get that you will be in trouble if you lied on a passport application for example.
shellbell, that must vary state to state then, because in SA at least if you knowingly swear a false stat dec that is a crime regardless of your purpose:
http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/sa/consol_act/oa193679/s27.html
So it looks like the government is facing a 5%-6% swing.
That’s interesting Patrick Bateman.
Like I said before, I don’t believe Morrison’s advisors would let him sign a stat dec. He is too dodgy.
Outside the politically engaged on Twitter, Poll Bludger, etc. nobody cares about the Labor mean girls stuff.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, April 3, 2022 at 10:33 pm
So it looks like the government is facing a 5%-6% swing.
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According to Newspoll about 5% since July last year. These figures are basically whats applied July to December 2021 in Newspoll
I’ve updated the post with the Ipsos poll.
The relevant Federal Act provides for a penalty of up to 4 years imprisonment for a false declaration.
http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/sda1959280/s11.html
It it falls under NSW law than it could be up to 5 years jail.
http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/oa190079/s25.html
A 4.4% swing would result in 79 seats
I’d actually like a swing of 5% because it would mean Dickson could fall and one of my fantasies is seeing ‘Lex Luthor’ out of parlt.
The Ipsos poll suggests it was a nothing burger budget. I can cry for $80 billion of waste added to our debt, but sleep happy knowing Morrison’s election prospects are going nowhere.
MJ:
But when it comes to the Towke allegations, how do you prove it? Unless theres’s a recording, it’s all just “he said, she said.”
If no one checks a stat dec (because there is no point in checking a random stat dec) false stat decs will not be detected. If anyone can outline a mechanism by which Towke’s stat dec, or a hypothetical Morrison stat dec, might be officially deemed to be false please enlighten us.
They won’t be checked – can’t be checked – so the idea that there might be some penalty associated with lying on a stat dec (that isn’t associated with a particular legal process) is irrelevant.
Perhaps if one or the other party sued for defamation they might be tested? Trying to use defamation proceedings to “prove” truth/falsehood seems mildly popular at the moment…
@Asha – the power of the allegations is less about their content as how it plays into preconceived notions.
@Granny Anny @shellbell @Asha
I understand there was at least another person who signed a stat. dec. attesting to what Scotty from Marketing said, based on the news article that originally revealed the existence of them, plus noting that CFW said ‘stat dec’ in plural.
Short of a recording being presented, other witnesses could testify to support the veracity of Towke’s stat. dec., given that perjury is a more serious offence punishable by up to 10 years imprisonment, even if there are no judicial proceedings currently active on the matter.
See here: http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca190082/s327.html
That makes it less a ‘he said, she said’ situation, and more of a confirmation by witness testimony (more who confirm, the more weight the claim has). I doubt anyone would be willing to stick their neck out for Scotty from Marketing with a potential perjury charge hanging over them.
IANAL though…
That said, I’d expect that even SfM isn’t stupid enough to make a false statutory declaration, or if he is, even if his declaration was super carefully worded, he’d be industrially deaf from his lawyers screaming at him not to do it.
This plays into optics just as much as legalities.
54-46 on polling day would be a 5.53% swing from 2019. 55-45 is 6.53%.
Assuming a uniform swing (yes, yes, I know) and including the new notionally safe Labor seat of Hawke, that’s 16 more seats to Labor if it’s 54-46 and 22 if it’s 55-45.
In reality, of course, it’ll be a whole lot messier no matter what the actual results are.
Jackol, if someone commits a crime you generally report it to the police.
Patrick Bateman – sure, but you try going into a Police Station and saying “The Prime Minister lied” and see what happens.
The allegations keep coming and in the Oz of all places.
The next newspoll will not be good for the lib/nats
With a combined primary vote of under 40% for the lib/nats , the federal election won’t be close .
Comfortable Labor majority
@Asha
Yeah it would be very difficult to prove in a court if someone is making a false declaration without as you say some recording proving it. However Morrison’s response yesterday in regards to Towke was very unconvincing, if he signed a stat dec refuting the claims of racism I’m not sure how this benefits him in the court of public opinion. That’s why I think it’s just empty words with him saying he’ll file a contrary stat dec in an effort to try an combat the allegations.
When will these two new polls be added to Bludgertrack?
Does Bludgertrack calculate its own 2pp from the primary votes?
Kick the cruel and corrupt disgrace of a government out and set up an ICAC with retrospective powers… there would not be so many smug born to rule faces for a while……..