Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45

Newspoll records a dip in the Labor primary vote, but only the slightest of movements on two-party preferred, while the debut of a new series from Ipsos offers the government even less joy.

The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 38% (down three) and Greens 10% (up two), with One Nation and the United Australia Party both steady on 3%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is down one to 43% and up two to 44%. Morrison had nudged into the lead on preferred prime minister at 43-42, after a 42-42 tie last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1531. It will have assuredly have included the usual battery of questions on response to the budget, which will be along either later tonight or tomorrow.

We also have the first Ipsos poll for the Financial Review, as foreshadowed in the previous post, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45. The published primary votes include an undecided component of 7%, with the remainder going Labor 35%, Coalition 31%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4%, United Australia Party 2% and others 8%. If the undecided are removed, this pans out to Labor 38.9%, Coalition 34.4%, Greens 11.1%, One Nation 4.4%, United Australia Party 2.2% and others 8.9%.

The poll features multiple measures of two-party preferred, the headline being “based on the 2019 flow, including those of the 7% of undecided voters” – I must confess to being a bit confused by this, but I believe what is offered is a conventional previous election flows measure. There is a similar measure that does not exclude the 7% undecided, which has Labor on 51% and the Coalition on 42%. A further measure is based on respondent-allocated preferences, but does not exclude either the 7% who were altogether undecided and those non-major party voters who declined to indicate a preferred major parties. This one has Labor on 48%, the Coalition on 37% and undecided on 15%, suggesting a third of non-major party voters did not indicate a preference.

Personal ratings are weaker for Scott Morrison than from Newspoll, and both leaders have higher undecided results. Morrison is on 33% approval and 48% disapproval, compared with 30% and 32% for Anthony Albanese. Preferred prime minister is similar, with Albanese holding a negligible lead of 38-37. The report notes that Morrison has 51% disapproval among women and 45% among men, while Albanese is at 26% approval and 31% disapproval among women.

The poll suggests a lukewarm response to the budget, with 29% rating they would be better off and 23% worse off, with 39% opting for no difference. Presumably there is a fair bit more to come from this poll, both in terms of budget response and voting intention breakdowns given the poll’s distinctly large sample size of 2563. It was conducted from Wednesday to Sunday.

UPDATE: The methodology disclosure statement from the Ipsos poll, including details on weighting and the full questionnaire, can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

728 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45”

Comments Page 15 of 15
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  1. South

    Yes agreed, that is why I have been so concerned with the lack of any new budget spending except on finalising the French contract as Penny Wong already exposed.

    I think construction could start years sooner if ASC was upgraded now. Also if BAE UK can supply the reactor compartment, the build time can be shortened (it is very pessimistic).

    That being said, if RN leased boats could be based in Perth now that would solve a lot of problems. The last two RN Astutes are due for completion by 2026/27.

    Australia does still have real bargaining power in this and the RN is short of cash so a leasing deal may be possible.

  2. Sandman:

    I have never heard of hansard being changed or parts of it being deleted from the record. This is very weird.

    Former PM Billy McMahon would do it on the regular:

    As treasurer, McMahon was always keen to reinforce perceptions that he had complete mastery of his portfolio. ‘He was always trying to impress people,’ recalled Alan Ramsey. ‘Always.’ McMahon’s way of doing so – by ‘the numerical blitzkrieg’, as journalist Maximilian Walsh called it – had remained the same for years. He would confidently bombard audiences with figures and statistics on every economic measure, and they were never, ever wrong.

    The reality was different, but it was hidden by the elaborate work of his office. While McMahon rained down numerical hell on the ALP in the House, a member of his staff would check his figures with Treasury officials. His office would then prepare copies of McMahon’s answers – with the correct figures – for distribution in the Press Gallery. Unable to wait until the publication of Hansard the next morning, journalists would use those answers for the reports they filed that night.

    It would not have worked had journalists paid more attention. When he began work in the gallery, Robert Haupt observed that upon any question asked of McMahon, the pens in the gallery would go down. There seemed to be an unspoken consensus that it was time for a break. It took Haupt a little while, but soon enough he understood. Why would you bother recording answers when you were going to have the full text soon enough? Not quite so lazy himself, Haupt took notes and compared them to the daily and weekly Hansards. But he was boggled to find himself in the wrong. ‘They invariably told the same story,’ he wrote. ‘McMahon right; Haupt wrong.’

    The reason for that lay again with McMahon’s office. When Hansard extracts were sent to it for proofing, the figures would be altered to be true, to align with the answers distributed the day before. ‘He [McMahon] was a devil with the way he used to alter Hansard,’ Peter Kelly recalled. ‘You’re not supposed to alter Hansard, but he’d make all sorts of alteration and corrections.’

    (from Patrck Mullins’ brilliant “Tiberius with a Telephone”)

  3. Socrates ,
    Thinking about the problem, there’s two types of subs we need IMO. First, We need blue water sea denial and intel gathering. And secondly, we need shallow water, island hopping SF insert/exfil platforms. It maybe false economy to think we need one boat to do both missions.

    I know it’s expensive, but I would have bought a few diesel subs from Sweden for our northern waters as a 20 year stop gap capability. Whilst filling out the longer range mission with the nuclear option from either aukus partner

    I’d pay for it by getting the army to give up it’s tracked IFV’s and trade them in for Boxer CRV with the IFV crew fit. Which overall would have simplified the logistic chain in the army. They would only have to deal with one platform for most armored vehicles.
    Bang! saved several billion there.

  4. There has to be some kind of chance that both Frydenburg and Dutton lose their seats. If it were to happen, anyone have any idea who would next lead the Libs?

  5. Looking a bit further ahead

    A year and a day after the first sitting of the next parliament, there will be a review of each States seat entitlement.

    On the current figures there would be 1 change to states entitlements,with Victoria loosing a seat and WA is getting close (15.42 quotas up from 15.29) to reclaiming the seat it lost from the last review, thus increase the Federal parliament by one.

    However what ever happens in Feb 2023 NSW will undergo a redistribution as the 7 years is up, this could lead to some interesting changes

  6. Asha – who???!!!

    I was thinking it might land on Paul Fletcher as last person standing as it were.

    But some unknown David Cameron type might work?

  7. South: a submarine program costs billions per year to simply run, regardless of procurement costs. So any IFV or tanks ‘saves’ are really small beer.

    Frankly, every option you and Socrates are discussing are far too late for any meaningful use.

    2040? The ChiComms have a toe hold into a FOB less than 1600km from Townsville. Kind of makes Sea Denial somewhat redundant. We need missiles. Lots and lots of missiles. We need to develop ways to put them on existing platforms, and then platforms we might get before 2030. There is now NO option to build submarines – of any description – in Australia that could come into service by 2030. However, we could at least put medium and long range cruise missiles into our Collins, AWDs, perhaps even our ANZACs and at least put NSMs and/or JSMs onto other platforms.

    I doubt that either America or Britain could viably lease us SSNs this decade, but I understand that the five boats left in the Rubis class could have up to a decade of life in them once they exit service over the course of this decade as the balance of the Suffren class come into service. Those, plus the six upgraded collins might seed us through to 2040..

  8. Andrew_Earlwood,
    por qué no los dos?

    I agree, lots and lots of hyper-sonic, low flying fast missiles.
    I think a nice stetch goal for our defense industry should be to look at being able to sink a large ship within 45 minutes of the order being given at max range of 2000km from the mainland.

    But as you know, if the ADF want’s it’s expensive toys we need to grow the economy so that 2% starts to grow with it. Inflation is bad for the Military Industrial complex just like it’s bad for mum and dad.

  9. Christ Socrates, that video from the 20 minute mark is simply embarrassing. Collins does not have to snort for several hours. Only several minutes!!! The whole ‘snorting to recharge batteries “problem” is largely a myth anyway: when undertaking Sea Denial operations at strategic pinch points a submarine – any submarine is using one of its array of various masts (which means its at snorkel depth) very frequently, so there are snorkeling opportunities all the time. I mean have a look at a Virginia class SSN – it has 6 masts. They are not there for ostentation.

    Also, “unlimited endurance” is another myth: crew, even on a nuclear boat have to eat. They also tend to go mad eventually from continuous operation in such a confined and artificial environment as a submarine. Both of those factors limit an individual mission on a SSN and even a SSBN to under 90 days on average.

    Nuclear submarines have an energy advantage. Which is useful for certain types of operations. Given the changing strategic environment that justifies a pivot, but not a shift away from current missions. Anyhow, not to rehash old arguements. …

  10. My picks should both current alternatives not be available and the Libs are in need of a leader

    Fletcher – as a deeply technocratic moderate – his chances are low. But they improve when you consider the margin of his electorate and he’s got pretty clean hands.

    Tehan – generally well liked in the party and has assumed increasing seniority, regardless of leader.

    Andrews, Karen – most likely Deputy.

    Taylor is still damaged goods.

  11. I can personally attest to Fletchers super high intelligence, but he’ll certainly struggle for any kind of common touch or identification amongst working class aussies. Mind you, that hasnt exactly been a holdback quality for a fair few lib pms over the years

  12. I do wonder what the folk at SportsBet are smoking with some of those odds. How the heck does Melissa Price have shorter odds than Paul Fletcher!?

  13. Expat Followersays:
    Monday, April 4, 2022 at 11:35 pm
    “I can personally attest to Fletchers super high intelligence, but he’ll certainly struggle for any kind of common touch or identification amongst working class aussies. Mind you, that hasnt exactly been a holdback quality for a fair few lib pms over the years”

    I am yet to hear him say anything intelligent about the NBN.

  14. Post election if the Liberals lose there isn’t really anyone who strikes me as being particularly effective. Makes me think they could go down the attack dog route and pick Dutton, though the problem with that is he looks and acts like a James Bond villain, voters are never going to like him assuming we don’t fall into some Weimar Republic style crisis. If Frydenburg wins Kooyong then they will probably pick him and see how it goes, if he loses his seat then it could bring some unexpected people into the running.

  15. Themunz, well he isnt the first or last from both sides to say dumb shit out of populist/party/ideological/lobbying obligation.

    Highly intelligent i repeat, not so sure he’s a guy your average punter would want to have a beer with. Very toff, the idea would appall him most likely!

    Gotta be a John Fahey type somewhere amongst them?

  16. A E at 11.18pm

    Are you suggesting Australia consider leasing some Rubis-class SSNs?

    If so, why not some of the US’ late-model Los Angeles-class?

    Both options would require refueling. Rubis – smaller, in some ways less capable, but perhaps a better ‘bridge’ to an Astute size Aussie SSN…

    Los Angeles – larger in displacement and crew-size than we probably require (although they do have Dutton’s beloved missile tubes!) but a boat with an excellent service record.

    Leasing, or, dare I say it, buying used, is the only way to get any SSN before 2040.

    Cue Dodgy Brothers ad ‘Let us do it right for you!’

  17. Surprise seat for me will be Curtin, the Liberal Party’s crown jewel in WA, falling to an independent.

    I just moved out of Curtin and I’d love to see my new seat of Tagney fall to Labor but sadly I can’t see it happening despite receiving a robo poll tonight.

  18. Themunz @ #717 Monday, April 4th, 2022 – 11:43 pm

    Expat Followersays:
    Monday, April 4, 2022 at 11:35 pm
    “I can personally attest to Fletchers super high intelligence, but he’ll certainly struggle for any kind of common touch or identification amongst working class aussies. Mind you, that hasnt exactly been a holdback quality for a fair few lib pms over the years”

    I am yet to hear him say anything intelligent about the NBN.

    That’s because he’s a conflicted idealogue. He was a dedicated antimonopolist re Telsra, which is why Howard & Costello hated his guts. He is very bright, but almost colourless – even at school (he was in my brother’s year at Sydney Grammar). I suspect that he will be the last man standing after the coming rout.

  19. @Tom, last night:

    “ If so, why not some of the US’ late-model Los Angeles-class?

    Both options would require refueling. Rubis – smaller, in some ways less capable, but perhaps a better ‘bridge’ to an Astute size Aussie SSN…”

    My reading of the current literature indicates that the USN fully intends to use its late model Los Angeles Class boats for as long as possible given its operational requirements. Therefore there won’t be any ‘spares’ available to lease to australia as a bridge.

    However, IF we do go with an American SSN design AND there are 3-4 spare Los Angeles Class boats to lease for between 7-15 years each as a bridge then I would not be opposed to the concept. Same goes with the Brits, but I think they are in an even worse situation than the Americans.

    On the other hand the French fully intend to take out of service their 5 Rubis class boats this decade and the capabilities of these boats, which have been progressively upgraded over the past 30 years are first class. For stealth for Sea Denial operations they are by far the quietist western SSN subs in service, with the exception of its successor, the Suffren class. They carry the F21 heavy torpedo, the short range Exocet, the long range cruise missile (I think) and mines: all the capability we need for the next 20 years. Moreover, in between being retired from the French navy and entering the RAN, as part of an extended overhaul they could be retrofitted with US Combat and Weapons systems, if that was thought necessary (obviously Los Angeles Class boats wouldn’t need that upgrade/repackaging, but the British boats would, just like the French).

    All of these SSN lease options would require the boats that are to be leased to be refuelled and overhauled in their country of origin first before being handed to the RAN for between 7 and 10 years further service. They should probably be handed over one boat at a time, in two year intervals from say 2026.

    If we were to lease between 2-3 Rubis class we could lease the three oldest boats for 7 years, starting in 2026, and replacing them with the two youngest boats in the mid 2030s (leaving them in dry dock for a few years) to supplement the first two Aussie Suffren class boats to be built at Cherbourg. This would ‘buy us time’ to start production of our own in Adelaide and bring into service the first four locally built SSNs by about 2045.

    If we go with either of the AUKUS partners, the same principles should apply:

    1. Lease old boats from the mid 2020s;

    2. Start laying down Aussie SSN hulls in Adelaide by 2028;

    3. Have the AUKUS partner country build the first 2-4 boats in their ship building yard at the same time as steps 1 & 2 are happening concurrently.

    4. Upgrade and extend the Collins – but with long range cruise missiles – as per the current plan.

    This way we should actually have 9-10 boats in service from 2030 all the way until we have a completely mature SSN program by 2045.

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