The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 38% (down three) and Greens 10% (up two), with One Nation and the United Australia Party both steady on 3%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is down one to 43% and up two to 44%. Morrison had nudged into the lead on preferred prime minister at 43-42, after a 42-42 tie last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1531. It will have assuredly have included the usual battery of questions on response to the budget, which will be along either later tonight or tomorrow.
We also have the first Ipsos poll for the Financial Review, as foreshadowed in the previous post, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45. The published primary votes include an undecided component of 7%, with the remainder going Labor 35%, Coalition 31%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4%, United Australia Party 2% and others 8%. If the undecided are removed, this pans out to Labor 38.9%, Coalition 34.4%, Greens 11.1%, One Nation 4.4%, United Australia Party 2.2% and others 8.9%.
The poll features multiple measures of two-party preferred, the headline being “based on the 2019 flow, including those of the 7% of undecided voters” – I must confess to being a bit confused by this, but I believe what is offered is a conventional previous election flows measure. There is a similar measure that does not exclude the 7% undecided, which has Labor on 51% and the Coalition on 42%. A further measure is based on respondent-allocated preferences, but does not exclude either the 7% who were altogether undecided and those non-major party voters who declined to indicate a preferred major parties. This one has Labor on 48%, the Coalition on 37% and undecided on 15%, suggesting a third of non-major party voters did not indicate a preference.
Personal ratings are weaker for Scott Morrison than from Newspoll, and both leaders have higher undecided results. Morrison is on 33% approval and 48% disapproval, compared with 30% and 32% for Anthony Albanese. Preferred prime minister is similar, with Albanese holding a negligible lead of 38-37. The report notes that Morrison has 51% disapproval among women and 45% among men, while Albanese is at 26% approval and 31% disapproval among women.
The poll suggests a lukewarm response to the budget, with 29% rating they would be better off and 23% worse off, with 39% opting for no difference. Presumably there is a fair bit more to come from this poll, both in terms of budget response and voting intention breakdowns given the poll’s distinctly large sample size of 2563. It was conducted from Wednesday to Sunday.
UPDATE: The methodology disclosure statement from the Ipsos poll, including details on weighting and the full questionnaire, can be found here.
Just been polled on the home phone.
Quick poll.
Tangney specific it wouid seem as was asked if I would vote Morton or Lim.
would I change my mind.
Did I have favourable or unfavourable view of Morrison and Albanese.
Age and gender.
Burgey @ #653 Monday, April 4th, 2022 – 8:29 pm
ASMAR & ORS
v
ALBANESE & ORS
[2022] HCASL 71
3 Pursuant to r 41.08.1 of the High Court Rules 2004 (Cth), we direct the Registrar to draw up, sign and seal an order dismissing the application with costs.
S.M Kiefel
S.J Gageler
31 March 2022
“Evan says:
Monday, April 4, 2022 at 5:40 pm
My tips for surprise seat results on election night:
Page, Casey, Deakin, Goldstein, Flinders, North Sydney, Tangney”
Good picks. I reckon Ryan in Brisbane could be a surprise/sleeper; could equally be a Green flip as a Labor one. I’d keep eyes closely on Dickson too.
“ BeaglieBoy says:
Monday, April 4, 2022 at 5:44 pm
Whats everyones tip for a seat expected to fall, but that hangs on against the trend?…..I’ll go Chisholm, again.”
Longman. Unless the aged care stuff kicks in big time on Bribie. And I don’t think Brisbane will flip.
On Hansard alterations, the trick was to send the staffer down and ask for the correction – saying ‘yes we know that what s/he said, but they weren’t meant to say that’.
Usually worked.
Rossmcg
Tangney on 9.5%!!!!
Super Trouper at 8:48 pm
We need to get on to PB’s Bribie Island spy davidwh.
I’ll be missing Bill Shorten’s weirdly awkward interactions with the public this election campaign.
Ah, it appears I misunderstood Sprockets original post on the matter. (Haven’t been able to watch the actual FJ video yet.) I interpreted it to mean that Tim Wilson and Pyne’s staffer had been going at it with each other in the prayer room. Those other details sound rather more damaging.
Barney
If the election is before may 21 I will be away on a remote area camping trip and may be relying on the wireless for election night coverage.
Enjoying a nightcap or three by a fire under a zillion stars hearing Tangney called for labor would be perfect.
Rossmcgsays:
Monday, April 4, 2022 at 9:14 pm
Barney
If the election is before may 21 I will be away on a remote area camping trip and may be relying on the wireless for election night coverage.
Enjoying a nightcap or three by a fire under a zillion stars hearing Tangney called for labor would be perfect.
_____________________
Nothing would ever be as perfect as watching Wong on the ABC in 2019.
I still have it on my Hard Drive recorder. It will never be deleted.
Interesting assessment by this military historian of the Ukraine situation so far.
It’s an hour in length and seems very well reasoned to me.
The Battle of Ukraine – A Campaign Evaluation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyTCdl6-VVw
I’d be amazed if Deakin switched. I think Dracula’s bastard child is safe in that seat.
It will pay to never delete it because I suspect it will be a very long time before Coalition bums sit in the Ministerial seats.
If the Coalition survives the purging fire of a Federal ICAC at all.
Taylormade @ #662 Monday, April 4th, 2022 – 9:25 pm
You support Scott Morrison! Uuuurrrgh! Enough said!
In the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor for March 2022, 12% of Australians identified defence, foreign affairs, and terrorism as the most important issue facing Australia today. This is up five points from last month, the highest Ipsos has seen since 2017.
Ipsos Australia Director, Jessica Elgood said that this will be an important space to watch over the next few months as news of international national security, such as military expenditure and budgets, the Russia / Ukraine conflict, and the Solomon Islands draft security agreement with China, continue to take lead on our screens and as Australia heads into the next election.
“The Ipsos Issues Monitor, which has been running since 2010, shows that the Coalition has maintained a consistent lead over the ALP in their ability to manage defence, foreign affairs, and terrorism issues. We currently see global instability meaning that the importance of these issues to the Australian electorate is rising, yet a minority of Australians trust the major parties to manage these issues,” Elgood said.
“This suggests there is scope for making headway with voters for both the Coalition and the ALP if they are able to make a more convincing case that their party can provide leadership in relation to our security.”
https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/australians-divided-which-political-party-trust-manage-our-national-security-new-ipsos-study
Financial Services Minister Jane Hume’s office asked Hansard staff to delete references to a planned $10 cut to the price of medicines that did not make it into the budget after she mistakenly referred to it in Parliament.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mystery-shrouds-hansard-change-to-hide-budget-s-missing-10-drug-price-cut-20220404-p5aaqd.html
From the Oz
“A Liberal Party member trying to overturn the endorsement of three senior Morrison government MPs in court will now attempt to invalidate nine other handpicked candidates running in key seats. With the federal election due to be called this week, NSW Liberal Party executive member Matt Camenzuli has sought a Supreme Court injunction to strike out last-minute Liberal candidates in Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Hughes, Warringah, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, McMahon and Newcastle. The escalation of the factional war comes as the NSW Court of Appeal prepares to hand down its judgment on Tuesday, determining the validity of the Prime Minister’s decision to shield his three senior MPs – Alex Hawke, Sussan Ley and Trent Zimmerman – from preselection
Court documents lodged on Monday night reveal the original case, brought by Mr Camenzuli, has been extended to include nine candidates that were chosen by Mr Morrison on the weekend at the expense of a vote by branch members”.
The NSW Liberals are imploding.
“Court documents lodged on Monday night reveal the original case, brought by Mr Camenzuli, has been extended to include nine candidates that were chosen by Mr Morrison on the weekend at the expense of a vote by branch members”.”
I know nothing at all of the case law around political party rules. Is there any chance of Morrison and his cabal losing, Morrison going to the GG and getting the writs issued, and then appealing and / or seeking a stay based on some kind of ’emergency’?
I’m assuming the NSW courts are similar to its police force.
Sceptic @ #649 Monday, April 4th, 2022 – 8:33 pm
That’s funny considering all the rumours here years ago about Pyne frequenting gay bath houses and rumoured promiscuity. Hence the nickname “Prancing Poodle”.
I know, let’s play putting Pru Goward and Changing Hansard in the same post.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/goward-in-row-over-speech-edits-20130910-2ticz.html
Poroti I have already picked Longman to be won by Labor.
Rossmcg
if Tangney is in play we are looking at a tsunami. you won’t need a wireless. you’ll hear me yelling
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/april-fools-no-the-aukus-submarine-is-not-leaking/
🙂
“And many observers will have mixed feelings about the program and likely outcomes. Not least whether politicians will be capable of making sensible decisions. A nuclear derivative of the Collins Class is an interesting paper exercise, but it encompasses these fears. It is a relatively small submarine by nuclear standards. And it is optimized for different things. It is exactly what the Virginia and Astute factions will fear most.”
Wow! That Matt Camenzuli guy is deadly serious. He’s playing the game until only one survivor is left standing.
And, speaking of Survivor (see what I did there? 😀 ), WA were the winners there too. A former SAS Major from WA won the finale tonight.
One of Pyne’s more embarrassing brushes with questions of sexual preferences was when some naughty person hacked his phone, at 2am, when he was fast asleep, and liked a gay porn site.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/i-was-hacked-says-pyne-after-gay-porn-like/j1eubyf1a
“or seeking a stay based on some kind of ’emergency’?”
Yet…any “emergency” is one that can be plainly argued has been purposely created by Morrison and Co to get around their own parties rules and procedures??
Fwark it is good to see the Liberals literally eating each other at this stage. Liberal Zombie Cannibal Apocalypse coming up?? Hope they are not brain eating dependent zombies…they will starve.
““or seeking a stay based on some kind of ’emergency’?”
Yet…any “emergency” is one that can be plainly argued has been purposely created by Morrison and Co to get around their own parties rules and procedures??
Fwark it is good to see the Liberals literally eating each other at this stage. Liberal Zombie Cannibal Apocalypse coming up?? Hope they are not brain eating dependent zombies…they will starve”
Oh yeah one would not think for a moment it would work in a state that wasn’t characterised most prominently by corruption.
C@tmomma says:
And, speaking of Survivor (see what I did there? ), WA were the winners there too. A former SAS Major from WA won the finale tonight.
________
He is a worthy winner but I was going for Shay who I thought deserved it more.
DB Cooper at 8:03pm.
I hope you are wrong about Ken Wyatt defying the trend and hanging on in Hasluck. Granted that he will be hard to evict, he isn’t quite the arsehole that most of his colleagues are. That’s my electorate so I will be doing my bit to hopefully get the impressive Tania Lawrence into Parliament in his place.
“And, speaking of Survivor (see what I did there? ), WA were the winners there too. A former SAS Major from WA won the finale tonight.”
Did he win by pushing his competitors down a hill and shooting them in dead in the back?
“I hope you are wrong about Ken Wyatt defying the trend and hanging on in Hasluck. Granted that he will be hard to evict, he isn’t quite the arsehole that most of his colleagues are. That’s my electorate so I will be doing my bit to hopefully get the impressive Tania Lawrence into Parliament in his place.”
His signs were up this morning, nothing from Tania yet, although I’m not sure how great those signs are, I want to run them over and destroy them no matter which party polluted my drive.
I think also Tania might be a Tanya, not 100% sure.
BeaglieBoy at 8:10pm
I don’t believe that Morrison is deeply religious. I reckon it is just a charade that he adopted and now can’t drop it.
Typical Bullshitman as far as I am concerned.
WeWantPaul @ #683 Monday, April 4th, 2022 – 10:03 pm
How big is the LNP logo on the sign?
“How big is the LNP logo on the sign?”
I’m not sure, I will check on my next journey to St George’s Terrace on Wednesday.
You have it on your hard drive? I’m into politics but that’s odd. That’s a fetish.
The marginals and Warringah I can understand, but why would the Libs be having such a public, drawn-out argument over who’s their candidate in Fowler, Grayndler or Newcastle? Just run a 19 yr old uni student with a tenuous connection to the seat like they normally do.
From what I can gather it all stems from this “The case hinges on the March 4 decision by the Liberal federal executive to temporarily dissolve the party’s NSW division to endorse Mr Hawke, Environment Minister Ms Ley and North Sydney MP Mr Zimmerman”.
C@momma
Was looking forward to the final and you have ruined it. A spoiler alert would have been good.
This is what is must have been like through the RGR years as a liberal supporter.
Matt Camenzuli, Morrison, intertwined like binary stars with decaying obits.
I’m ready for the big energetic explosion.
Hopefully the sheer spectical of this fight will overcome the partisan nature of the media and they will cover it with the vigor and speculation it deserves.
For anyone who likes to read long winded legal documents, the ARM has published their preferred version of the constitution.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b531a35b98a78268300cad6/t/624372e0f12eeb34a726870f/1648587491805/CAB+Australian+Republic+Constitution.pdf
It’s a fight to the death between the two “Liberal” factions – the Right and the Far Right.
I just checked. The ALP Hasluck candidate spells her name Tania. I think she pronounces it as Tanya.
“How big is the LNP logo on the sign?”
I’m not sure, I will check on my next journey to St George’s Terrace on Wednesday
You might need a microscope…
Assantdj @ #694 Monday, April 4th, 2022 – 10:13 pm
Oh god, sorry! I thought nath in Victoria was the only other Survivor nut.
For any followers of the AUKUS sub saga this video is a must watch. Chris Skinner speaks to RUSI about SSN options starting at the 20 minute mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_s9Av3a1Tg
Some key assumptions
– BAE would build Astute (UK) SSNs in Adelaide, slow start (not till 2028)
– slow start to construction due to leisurely approach to preparation, sadly consistent with this years budget.
– reactor and propulsion would be built in Barrow, UK, front half in ASC, assembled together in ASC. That makes sense re the reactor
– Maybe 50% local build though without propulsion being built locally
– First boat would take ten years to build, completed in 2040
– then one boat following every two years after that.
– suggestion that RAN lease up to 3 crewed RN (or USN) boats for several years circa 2028 to be based in Perth. RAN crews would train on these. This is critical assumption re availability of SSNs to lease, but would solve capability gap and rapidly speed up RAN crew training.
– Australia would pay UK for the subs while leased.
This is a broadly feasible plan if assumptions are agreed with UK. Better than the USN option for cost, crew and sovereignty aspects.
As ASC gains expertise the % of Australian content could presumably be increased over time.
Socrates ,
We need subs right now.
I don’t think it’ silly to try and leverage the purchase decision to acquire 2 current gen boats asap < 5 years to get crews experience and provide capability to the RAN.
IF anyone thinks that having the first boat hit the water by 2040 is in anyway some form of deterrent they are out of their minds. We are talking about a time span in which a crew member of that boat may yet be born.
C@tmomma
All good, I have always been a survivor fan, also like the amazing race. Currently watching anything and everything as I’m stuck at home convalescing.
Today got the good news I can drive so TV watching will decrease.