Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45

Newspoll records a dip in the Labor primary vote, but only the slightest of movements on two-party preferred, while the debut of a new series from Ipsos offers the government even less joy.

The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 38% (down three) and Greens 10% (up two), with One Nation and the United Australia Party both steady on 3%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is down one to 43% and up two to 44%. Morrison had nudged into the lead on preferred prime minister at 43-42, after a 42-42 tie last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1531. It will have assuredly have included the usual battery of questions on response to the budget, which will be along either later tonight or tomorrow.

We also have the first Ipsos poll for the Financial Review, as foreshadowed in the previous post, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45. The published primary votes include an undecided component of 7%, with the remainder going Labor 35%, Coalition 31%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4%, United Australia Party 2% and others 8%. If the undecided are removed, this pans out to Labor 38.9%, Coalition 34.4%, Greens 11.1%, One Nation 4.4%, United Australia Party 2.2% and others 8.9%.

The poll features multiple measures of two-party preferred, the headline being “based on the 2019 flow, including those of the 7% of undecided voters” – I must confess to being a bit confused by this, but I believe what is offered is a conventional previous election flows measure. There is a similar measure that does not exclude the 7% undecided, which has Labor on 51% and the Coalition on 42%. A further measure is based on respondent-allocated preferences, but does not exclude either the 7% who were altogether undecided and those non-major party voters who declined to indicate a preferred major parties. This one has Labor on 48%, the Coalition on 37% and undecided on 15%, suggesting a third of non-major party voters did not indicate a preference.

Personal ratings are weaker for Scott Morrison than from Newspoll, and both leaders have higher undecided results. Morrison is on 33% approval and 48% disapproval, compared with 30% and 32% for Anthony Albanese. Preferred prime minister is similar, with Albanese holding a negligible lead of 38-37. The report notes that Morrison has 51% disapproval among women and 45% among men, while Albanese is at 26% approval and 31% disapproval among women.

The poll suggests a lukewarm response to the budget, with 29% rating they would be better off and 23% worse off, with 39% opting for no difference. Presumably there is a fair bit more to come from this poll, both in terms of budget response and voting intention breakdowns given the poll’s distinctly large sample size of 2563. It was conducted from Wednesday to Sunday.

UPDATE: The methodology disclosure statement from the Ipsos poll, including details on weighting and the full questionnaire, can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

728 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45”

Comments Page 13 of 15
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  2. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, April 4, 2022 at 7:10 pm

    Maybe people like it like that steve777? After all Labor has said no new taxes are planned.
    _________________
    Not in the first term at least.

  4. Holden hillbilly:

    LMAO, what a mess!

    Is Sam McMahon planning to recontest her Senate seat? She and the two other defecters could form a new party.

  5. Mystery shrouds Hansard change to hide budget’s missing $10 drug price cut

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mystery-shrouds-hansard-change-to-hide-budget-s-missing-10-drug-price-cut-20220404-p5aaqd.html

    Bureaucrats have dodged questions over who ordered them to amend Hansard to delete references to a planned $10 cut to the price of medicines that did not make it into the budget, after Treasurer Josh Frydenberg refused to acknowledge the error.

    In Parliament last week, Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar and Financial Services Minister Jane Hume referred to a $10 reduction in the price of PBS medicines for all Australians, but this was not in the budget and these references mysteriously disappeared from Hansard.

  6. @Asha – that’s pretty much what I’ve heard from my QLD ALP peeps.

    They’re confident of a swing in QLD but no idea if it’ll be enough in the right places.

    Getting a 6% swing in Forde means nothing in the big picture.

  7. ”

    nathsays:
    Monday, April 4, 2022 at 7:13 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, April 4, 2022 at 7:10 pm

    Maybe people like it like that steve777? After all Labor has said no new taxes are planned.
    _________________
    Not in the first term at least.
    ”

    Will they have a first term?
    To paraphrase Paul Keating there won’t be a second term without a first.

  8. BeaglieBoy says:
    Monday, April 4, 2022 at 5:44 pm

    Whats everyones tip for a seat expected to fall, but that hangs on against the trend?…..I’ll go Chisholm, again.
    ———————-
    Bass

  9. Apart from maybe a bit of tidying up, tax reform is off the agenda for any Labor first term. It’s not the priority now.

  12. Player One @ #594 Monday, April 4th, 2022 – 7:00 pm

    ajm @ #588 Monday, April 4th, 2022 – 6:47 pm

    Player One @ #574 Monday, April 4th, 2022 – 6:17 pm

    Decades on, most of us now recognize the damage John Howard did to Australia, much of which was not evident at the time. At least, we did not understand at the time just how long-term the damage he did would be. But Australia has never recovered. We are a far lesser country now than we were pre-Howard.

    Abbott was just an idiot with a shit-eating grin, and Turnbull was just a lame duck. But I think that in a decade or so we will talk about Morrison in the same way as we talk about Howard.

    Some legacy.

    Don’t know what rock you were hiding under. Many of us recognised (and said) what Howard was doing to the country as he was doing it.

    No, we knew he was doing damage. Most governments (of any persuasion) do. But generally it can be fixed once they leave government. But in Howard’s case, most of us didn’t realize how much and how long term the damage would be.

    Just one example: Who knew that Howard’s abandoning the centuries-old Westminster concept of ministerial responsibility would lead – decades later – to ministers as utterly appalling as Christian Porter or Angus Taylor, who can repeatedly flout or abuse their ministerial responsibilities and suffer no consequences?

    Maybe you foresaw this outcome. Good on you. I don’t think most of us did. Or Australia would never have gone on to elect Abbott, Turnbull … or Morrison … 🙁

    The dogs were barking that Howard’s loosening of ministerial standards was the beginning of a slippery slope with no obvious emergency net. That rock you were hiding under must have been dense enough to keep out all sound and light.

  13. well, I would not be at all surprised if Morrison decides to go complete rogue. He knows he is toast. So, it will be about saving the furniture.

    His furniture —- I suggest, with his bastadry, a half Senate Election now, and a HR in September.

    He gets another 6 months on the Government Tit.—– It is everyman for himself now.

  14. Since the Coalition doesn’t do planning beyond colour-coded spreadsheets, they might actually be technically truthful when they say they have “no plans” to do stuff they intend to do after the election.

  16. I reckon Putin will see out his days living in comfortable exile in Shanghai or Beijing courtesy of his good friend , Comrade Xi Jingping.

    The biggest bastards usually die peacefully in their sleep.

  17. You have to pity the good burghers of Goldstein

    Friendly Jordies video names 2 members of homosexual sex in the Parliament House Prayer Room as

    Tim Wilson, Member for Goldstein who looks debauched

    James Newbury, former staffer to Christopher Pyne, current Member for Brighton (state) whose election pitch was to remove the shelter for homeless men in South Road
    Newbury was sooo unpopular the ALP nearly won the seat with an 18 year old candidate. That was a joyous election night party

    see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X55baVi4p4Y

    I reckon Zoe Daniels will be elected in a canter

  19. I am sure Labor will be horrified at the state of the books when they come to office and will make sure the public becomes similarly horrified as well, demanding action be taken to fix things despite promises previously made based on imperfect information.

  20. @sprocket – not gonna lie, my concern with this story (oddly, I don’t hear about FJ anywhere but here…) is the salaciousness around MPs who are openly gay or well known to be closet-cases.

    How many HUNDREDS of female sex workers have been brought into Parliament House?

    Ftr – it’s not OK to do that in any workplace… but the angle makes me very uncomfortable.

  21. Idi Amin lived for 14 years after his toppling in a lovely Saudi manor. Putin’s smart enough to have an escape plan and has managed to keep anywhere near the levers of power absolutely useless. I do think you are right LvT. But it won’t be Beijing. He’ll be stuck in Minsk.

  23. Not 14! 24, apologies. I’m multitasking, playing Wildermyth, watching the Mandalorian, cooking some chips, smoking and drinking.

  24. A former One Nation senator accused of breaching quarantine directions when WA’s hard border came down last month has told a magistrate he intends to take his case to the High Court.

    Rodney Norman Culleton, 57, did not enter pleas when he faced the Kalgoorlie Magistrate’s Court today.

    Mr Culleton and his Great Australian Party supporters were among 17 people charged by police for failing to comply with a direction under the Emergency Management Act when they entered WA last month at Eucla.

    The charge carries a potential term of up to 12 months’ imprisonment or a fine of up to $50,000.

    Mr Culleton told the court he would be seeking the services of a constitutional lawyer and that he intended to take the matter to the High Court.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-04/former-one-nation-senator-in-court-over-quarantine-breach/100965114

  25. “How many HUNDREDS of female sex workers have been brought into Parliament House?

    Ftr – it’s not OK to do that in any workplace… but the angle makes me very uncomfortable.”

    I do too, but at the end of the day we have allegations of one and not the other.

    One could speculate on a variety of predominantly bad reasons for this.

  26. ”I hope Putin ends up kind a like Samuel Doe”

    I was more hoping like Slobodan Milošević: 1.tried for war crimes (I know, highly unlikely) and 2. If found guilty (a near certainty if 1. happens), imprisoned for life.

  27. For those who have had the run of the secure areas of Parliament House, one key location for the ‘tour for friends and family’ is the Prayer Room. Ranks with the basement labyrinth, the pool, and the staff cafeteria. It’s on the corner of the intersection of the Senate and Ministerial Wings – up several flights of stairs.

    It was somehow included in the architects plans in Malcolm Fraser’s days – very ecumenical. There is Bibles, Korans, Buddhist texts scattered about – and discreet nooks where you can contemplate the meaning of life.

    In my time doing the escorted tour there, I never saw another person. But this was before the 2013 takeover by the Pentecostal Party….

  29. @sprocket – not gonna lie, my concern with this story (oddly, I don’t hear about FJ anywhere but here…) is the salaciousness around MPs who are openly gay or well known to be closet-cases.

    Now I’ve heard it all.

    “I don’t care if Libs have been sneaking prostitutes past Security and fucking each other in the Parliamentary Prayer room. As long as you don’t call me homophobic!”

  30. “Getting a 6% swing in Forde means nothing in the big picture.”

    Accept in terms of the senate vote. Labor only got one senate seat in Queensland last election but I understand your point though.

  31. JT:

    I have to agree.

    While it isn’t exactly appropriate workplace behaviour, it also sounds like totally consensual sex between two adults, which is certainly a lot better than some of the allegations that have come out about what goes on behind closed doors in parliament house.

  32. Firstly, FJ can only work with the information he has been given. Secondly people seem to be missing the big point, well I think it is, the political use of the AFP and the shenanigans around that.

  33. @BB – that’s a bad-faith take and you know it.

    I care if anyone has been breaking the rules – but who gives a fuck if it’s male sex workers?

    Surely MPs bypassing security to bring in sex workers is sufficient and the point.

  36. Firstly, FJ can only work with the information he has been given. Secondly people seem to be missing the big point, well I think it is, the political use of the AFP and the shenanigans around that.

    This is what I got from the FJ video, I don’t particularly care about the sex in the prayer room or the prostitutes.
    It is more that once again we are seeing the AFP being used as a political tool by the LNP.
    Labor really has to clean out the AFP!

  38. If N = the number of sex workers brought into Parliament House in Canberra, it is pretty much a given than N > 0.

    And if X is the amount of taxpayer money spent on these “assignations”, it is pretty much a certainty that X > N * x, where x is the average going rate for “escorts”/ “massage therapists” in Canberra.

  39. Panic in the Australian:

    New candidates pulled into Lib factional war

    A Liberal Party member trying to overturn the endorsement of three senior Morrison government MPs in court will now attempt to invalidate nine other handpicked candidates running in key seats.

  41. “Morrison knows he is toast”……does he? I’m not sure he does> He is waiting excitedly and expectantly for that miracle he is sure is coming. He is not finished in his mind, with stuffing parliament with Pentecostals, and Dog will no doubt agree and fix things, like he did last time

  42. In Murdoch’s Oz no less – the Liberals’ civil war becomes even less civil:

    New candidates pulled into Lib factional war

    A Liberal Party member trying to overturn the endorsement of three senior Morrison government MPs in court will now attempt to invalidate nine other handpicked candidates running in key seats.

  44. Sandman @ #652 Monday, April 4th, 2022 – 6:12 pm

    Scepticsays:
    Monday, April 4, 2022 at 7:15 pm
    Mystery shrouds Hansard change to hide budget’s missing $10 drug price cut

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mystery-shrouds-hansard-change-to-hide-budget-s-missing-10-drug-price-cut-20220404-p5aaqd.html
    —
    I have never heard of hansard being changed or parts of it being deleted from the record. This is very weird.

    It is not uncommon, especially in the last 8 years.

  45. A mystery solved. It was the Miister wot done it.

    ” While minor amendments to Hansard that do not alter the substance of what was said are usual, substantive changes without a formal correction of the record are controversial as Hansard is supposed to show the true record of what is said in the Chamber.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mystery-shrouds-hansard-change-to-hide-budget-s-missing-10-drug-price-cut-20220404-p5aaqd.html

    Obviously the proposed measure benefited too many people who would never vote for the Coalition.

  48. Burgey says:
    Monday, April 4, 2022 at 8:29 pm
    When is the special leave application re the Vic Division of the ALP due to be heard?

    ______________________________

    Special leave refused last week. The Liberal circus the only one in town now.

  50. Lol cheers TPOF. That’s awesome news. I was pretty much completely hooked up in arranging my wife’s surprise 50th then we went bush (well, Hawkesbury) for a weekend. Missed all of it.

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