Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in South Australia

The first South Australian state poll in a year suggests Steven Marshall has a lot of work to do over the next three weeks if his government is going to make it to a second term.

Three weeks out from the election, The Australian offers a Newspoll result from South Australia with a striking headline figure of 53-47 to Labor on two-party preferred, amounting to a 4.9% swing to Labor compared with the 2018 result. The primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39% and Greens 10%, compared with previous election results of Coalition 38.0%, Labor 32.8% and Greens 6.7%, with much of the residue accounted for by SA-Best. The poll is particularly encouraging for Labor leader Peter Malinauskas, who unusually for an Opposition Leader holds the lead on preferred premier, by 46-39. He also records a 51% approval rating, with disapproval at 31%. Steven Marshall is at 48% approval and 47% disapproval.

The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1015. For a whole lot more on the election, my South Australian election guide can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

82 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in South Australia”

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  1. Friend of mine who lives in Adelaide tells me that Marshall is very much on the nose and blamed for reopening their borders too quickly and the infiltration of Omnicrom into the state.

  2. Just a heads up: Candidate nominations close at noon (SA time) tomorrow and, shortly thereafter, we will have the ballot order draws. So we should know very soon who exactly is running (in both houses) and the order they appear on respective ballots.

  3. I think the independents will decide this election.
    Labor will gain Florey in the absence of Frances Bedford and I suspect she will inch over on preferences in Newland, which spots the ALP 2. Labor will take King and Adelaide but the Libs will take back Waite and probably Narungga and Frome from independents, if not an independent who will vote with the Libs will wins which is what will happen in MrGambier.
    This makes Labor’s job much, much harder, and they will need to start looking at Colton/Hartley to win.
    I don’t think anyone hates Marshall enough to give Malinouskas either of those seats.
    I think Bignell was extraordinarily lucky to hold Mawson last time, it’s not a naturally Labor seat and despite how hard he works it is a seat that may fall. If this happens Labor are toast.

  4. Beaglieboy, according to ECSA’s website and social media, the House of Assembly candidate listings are due to be uploaded to the ECSA website some time this afternoon”once the declarations are complete.” They’re yet to be uploaded.

    Apparently the Legislative Council will be drawn tomorrow and, a little after that, the LC candidate/ticket listings will be uploaded.

    Unfortunately, I have been sick and bedridden today, so I haven’t been paying too much close attention. I did catch a tweet from a political reporter that said there were nine candidates for the marginal government seat of Newland and that the Liberal incumbent scored the top listing but that’s all.

  5. I think David is pretty well on the mark. As Dr Kevin Bonham notes, there are not really a lot of marginal seats in play and it will be tough for Labor despite its quality candidates and polling lead.

    Newland is messy. It has a strong Liberal member and the Labor vote is fractured. Elder may be a better bet. Labor will have to win King and Adelaide to be in the hunt. A good smoky is Davenport. As for Mawson, Bignell is an exceptional local member and should be OK when the swing is to Labor, but you can never be quite sure.

    Two or three Liberals will hang on despite significant swings against them. Ballot paper positions and Family First preferences may well decide a tight election.

  6. Thanks Beaglieboy

    FWIW, Sportsbet betting odds have moved again and now Labor have moved into the “lead” and are the (slight) favourites to win government.

    Labor: $1.75
    Liberal: $2.00

    And, in case you’re wondering, I checked the “type of government formed” and the favourite is Labour majority, followed by Labor minority, followed by Liberal majority, followed by Liberal minority.

    Labor Maj: $2.50
    Labor Min: $3.25
    Liberal: Maj: $3.60
    Liberal Min: $3.85

    The usual disclaimers about betting odds apply. I intentionally precluded all other choices that are extreme longshots, as they’re not worth discussing seriously.

  7. The Wikipedia article has a bit of info on candidates (obviously incomplete).

    Gary Johanson (upper house) and John Illingworth (Hammond) are both running for the Nats, after being SA Best candidates in 2018. (Illingworth is the only one who got anywhere near winning a lower house seat, in Heysen.) Doesn’t say much about SAB’s chances if they’ve lost high-profile candidates. I wonder why a former mayor of Port Adelaide would end up with the Nats.

    Labor, Libs and Greens have candidates for most lower house seats and will probably run full slates. Other parties: 8 AJP, 8 Nats, 7 One Nation, and FF in Newland (Tom Kenyon’s old seat), plus the usual pile of independents.

    They’re all running in the upper house, as are SA Best, the LDP, and a rather hopeful Advance SA. John Darley (whose long lame-duck term is finally up) is pushing 85 and obviously not running again. They’ll be lucky if they get more than the 0.4% they got in 2018.

    In the LC: if it’s anywhere near 50-50, a likely result would be 5 left, 5 right, 1 mystery box. Something like 4 ALP, 4 Lib, 1 Grn, 1 FF, 1 other. (AJP, SAB, Labor’s #5, whoever.)

  8. The ECSA website now has the House of Assembly candidates up in ballot order:

    FWIW, here are the highlights of some of the ballot placings:

    The Liberals managed to place higher than Labor on all but one Liberal (v. Labor) marginal (Elder.)

    Labor have placed higher than the Liberals in all of their marginals except for Mawson.

    The indies who defected from the Liberals this term have all placed higher than the Liberal candidates. However, the Liberal candidate placed higher than Troy Bell in Mt. Gambier.

    Geoff Brock has placed higher than Dan van Holst Pellekaan in Stuart.

    Francis Bedford has placed last in Newland.

  9. There’s two other minor parties running in the lower house:

    Real Change SA (Adelaide, Elder, King, Newland)
    Australian Family Party (Adelaide, Badcoe, Hurtle Vale, King, Mawson, Newland)

    Mike Lesiw is “Independent Dignity 4 Disabled” in Cheltenham, so I guess that party lost their registration. He ran as “Independent The Other Guy” at the by-election to replace Jay Weatherill (3.5%), and also in Croydon in 2018 (0.9%).

    Tessa Kowaliw is “Independent Community Counts” in Florey, the same label as Frances Bedford in Newland. (Are they campaigning together?) Pronounced Ko-va-lyiv, apparently – she’s Ukrainian, which is more topical than she probably planned.

    Tom Antonio is running for SA Best in Giles (he came second with 26% there in 2018), and the LDP have a candidate in Elder. They seem to be the only lower house candidates for their parties.

    No Green in Frome, MacKillop, Mt Gambier or Narungga.

    Only 3 candidates (ALP, Lib, Green) in Black, Colton, Hartley, Morphett, Unley and West Torrens. 9 in Newland.

  10. In regards to my earlier post on ballot orders, on the whole donkey vote angle, my take is if the donkey vote is the deciding factor of the election outcome then it’s probably wasn’t “time” anyway.

  11. The seat of Mawson was written off by the Libs back in October 2021.

    Internally they didn’t expect to take that seat off Leon, his community work is second to none and a lot of Libs and Labor people nationwide could learn a lot off him, on how to do grass root campaigns, from the moment you take office.

    He lead the charge in KI during the bushfires and has been out everyday in the community building support.

    The area has also grown in Aldinga, with plenty of young families, so yes the seat covers typical liberal held country areas, however it still has a large labor backing in the suburbs at the northern end of the seat.

    No seat is won, still plenty to play out on this, for that area South Road past Maslin Beach is a key issue.

  12. Just looking at the spread of PHON candidates and wondering if there’s a pattern? Seems a strong representation in the Mayo electorates.

  13. Back in 2002, the Greens only ran in 22 seats. Every election since then they’ve run a full slate.

    Family First have 34 candidates: a fair bit, but their smallest number since their first election in 2002 (27). (The Conservatives ran 33 in 2018.) One Nation have 19 – their most since 2002, when they ran a full slate (not that it got them far).

    Tom Birdseye, the Real Change SA candidate in Adelaide, ran in that seat for something called “Gamers 4 Croydon” back in 2010. More info on RC here.

  14. SA Nationals are running in 8 lower house seats.

    That must be the most in a very long time for them. I don’t think they have run in more than a few seats in recent decades.

  15. Ah, Gamers 4 Croydon. That brings me back. It was effectively a protest party against the authoritarianism and social conservatism of the Rann Government, in particular that of then Attorney-General Michael Atkinson, centred specifically around the issue of Atkinson refusing to allow an R18+ rating on video games in Australia (all states had to approve it), effectively banning them from sale here.

    Of course, his was pre-“Gamergate”, when people could still use “Gamer” as a label of political activism without it meaning something really, really awful.

  16. Isle of Rocks: yep, the last time the Nats ran more than that was 9 in 1982. They ran in Newland and Unley for some reason.

    Oh, and the “Australian Family Party” is run by Bob Day, former senator for the first FF. Two different parties both trying to take the old FF vote… that could get messy.

  17. From the Tiser today one learns that the ‘new’ Family First Party will preference against Liberal sitting members in the very marginal seats of Newland and King but will bolster the Liberal Carolyn Power in Elder. This somewhat cancels out any donkey vote benefit accruing to Richard Harvey (Newland), Paula Luethen (King) and Labor candidate Nadia Clancy (Elder).

    MPs who took a harder line on abortion reform are rewarded. Family First candidates include three teachers who lost their jobs because of their opposition to vaccine mandates.

    There’s no mention of marginal Adelaide in the article.

  18. Aha, there’s no Family First candidate in Adelaide.

    Family First faces a bit of a preference dilemma in Newland because Richard Harvey and Frances Bedford both supported liberal abortion.

  19. The candidates by party are as follows –
    Labor 47 candidates – contesting all seats
    Liberal 47 – contesting all seats
    Greens 43 – not contesting Frome, MacKillop, Mount Gambier and Narungga. It is the first time since 2002 that the Greens have not contested every seat.
    Family First 34 – while Family First is a new party registered using an old name, the party with that name previously contested 27 seats in 2002, 45 in 2006, 47 in 2010, 42 in 2014 and 33 as the Australian Conseravtives in 2018.
    Independents 20 – up from 15 in 2018.
    One Nation 19 – the party has only prevously contested two lower house SA elections with 47 candidates in 2002 and six in 2006.
    Animal Justice 10 – up from 4 candidates in 2018.
    National Party 8 – the most candidates in more than three decades according to my records with 4 in 2006 the highest number in recent years.
    Real Change SA 4 – new party
    Australian Family Party 6 – new party
    Liberal Democrats 1 – new party for SA elections
    SA Best 1 – down from 36 in 2018, contesting only the Whyalla based seat of Giles.

  20. Things move so quickly at this stage of an election it’s near impossible to piece it all together!

    Incumbent advantage of mega business grant announcement (protein-food, viz vegetarian meat) playing out reasonably well, especially among vegetarians – though not sure what maths arrived at 8,500 fulltime jobs. Election calculators are curious things.

    Slightly risky move bundling future food announcement with SA’s cyber security investment. Unrelated, realise, but tens of thousands are still quite touchy about Govt service cyber attacks last year (some got hit twice).

    Rotation of Birmingham/Lucas/Gannon still in good use I see. All pros.

  21. The SA Greens will preference ex-Liberal independent Sam Duluk above his former party – despite parliamentary leader Tammy Franks’ labelling him a “slithering snake” in a recent parliamentary speech – while former DPP Stephen Pallaras’s fledgling party has raised eyebrows by running an apparent spoiler campaign in the four seats that will decide the state’s next government.

  22. Minor parties One Nation and the Australian Family Party will join the revived Family First in diverting preferences away from sitting MPs, including in key Liberal-held marginals in Adelaide’s northeast. The three conservative parties have decided their preferences based on incumbents’ vote on a failed amendment to the abortion laws that passed the parliament last year. The amendment would have prevented the procedure after 23 weeks except in very limited circumstances. In the state’s most marginal electorate of Newland, held by Liberal Richard Harvey on a margin of just 0.2 per cent, all three parties will run a candidate and direct preferences to Labor. Two of the three are running in neighbouring King, held by Liberal Paula Luethen on 0.8 per cent, and will also preference Labor. The Australian Family Party, the only of the three fielding a candidate in the electorate of Adelaide, will preference away from Liberal Rachel Sanderson who holds with a one per cent margin. Labor will need to pick up those three seats in order to form majority government. However, the conservative parties will preference away from Labor Mawson MP Leon Bignell, who holds his seat on a 0.7 per cent margin, and Badcoe MP Jayne Stinson, whose margin is 4.6 per cent.

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