Resolve Strategic: Coalition 34, Labor 35, Greens 11

What had previously been the Coalition’s best poll series opens its account for the year looking just as bad for the government as the others.

The new year polling drought has been brought to an end by Resolve Strategic, courtesy of the Age/Herald, which produces a particularly grim result for the government in view of its record as the Coalition’s strongest poll series. The Coalition primary vote is down fully five points since the last poll in mid-November to 34%, with Labor up three to 35%, the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation steady on 3%. The pollster’s already high ratings for independents and “others” are up still further, by two points to 11% and one point to 6%. As ever, no two-party preferred result is provided, but applying 2019 preference flows produces a Labor lead of around 53-47.

The breakdowns provided for the three largest states suggest the damage has been spread pretty evenly on two-party preferred, but the Queensland figures are notable in that the major parties are down 12% between them while both the Greens and One Nation are up five. The results are worse for the Coalition among women than men, their primary vote dropping respectively by six points and three.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are nonetheless little changed, with approval and disapproval both up a point to 41% and 50%. However, Anthony Albanese records a solid improvement, with approval up three to 34% and disapproval down four to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 40-29 to 38-31.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607. The Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor display is yet to be updated at the time of writing, but more of the details are provided in the accompanying report. I have updated my BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but I always advise a bit of caution when the first poll is added after a break, as the result tends to weigh heavily on the end point of the trend measure.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,680 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 34, Labor 35, Greens 11”

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  3. William probably hasn’t had time to incorporate the latest Morgan in Bludgertrack, which is fine.

    Current Bludgertrack is 54.1% ALP. Let’s be cautious and subtract 2 for pre-election tightening. So 52.1 , a 3.6% national swing.

    The greatest ALP win from Opposition was Hawke’s 53.6 (I think) in 1983. Then there are Whitlam and Rudd at about 52.7.

    But NSW, Victoria, Tasmania, ACT , NT and SA are likely to have lower swings than the national average. We might see 1-2% in those states/territories. We might see 5% in Queensland, endangering Dutton, and more than 5% in WA.

    Furthermore, Teals may well expand the cross bench further, entirely at the expense of the LNP.

    So, maybe 80 seats ALP, 8 cross bench and 63 LNP could be a conservative guesstimate.

    The other good news: this is the second Morgan above 55%. We are starting the year with polling in the range 53-56%.

    How long before the Lieberals shaft the Liar? How long before journey write strong who’s doing the numbers?

  6. C@tmomma,

    If you are still interested (and I suppose, even if you are not) the gap recently created at Bribie Island has widened from 50 to 300 metres according to latest report i saw, yesterday.

    😯 Yes I am interested. I don’t want davidwh to be marooned!

    Bribie Island breakthrough (sounds like an Earl Scruggs banjo piece):

    It’s at the narrowest section of the narrow spit at the very northern end of the island, opposite Golden Beach. It’s been predicted to happen for years.

    I think it’ll take more than a visit to Bribie for davidwh to become a Maroon. 😉

  9. Fiona Patten
    Big business owner Clive Palmer announces his party UAP will spend $80 mill on election while party leader Craig Kelly says its party is against the political influence of big business – if only this was comedy or even fake news #auspol
    https://t.co/9unOgxi2c7

  10. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/20/the-opposite-of-planning-how-australia-put-the-economy-before-health-of-the-nation

    When governments ditched Covid health advice, people might have assumed there were carefully honed policies to handle the surge in cases. That is not what is being revealed

    Our political leaders may also take heart from early signs that the hit to consumer and business sentiment from what independent economist Saul Eslake calls Australia’s “voluntary lockdown” will be short lived.

    “The economic impact to the extent that it’s going to get measured is probably bigger on the supply side than on demand side,” he says. “The economic consequences of people not being able to go to work are probably greater than the impact of people being afraid of going out and spending.

    Moves to fill our staff shortages by cutting Covid-positive isolation times from 14 days to seven and soon – if comments from the Morrison government are any guide – to five will increase the risk of further spreading the virus.

    “Letting people that are at high risk of having or spreading the infection return to work quickly helps the labour supply this week, and harms the labour supply in the coming weeks when it spreads,” Denniss said. “So this is the definition of short-termism.”

    We are so desperate at the moment, that we are willing to trade off an extra nurse today or an extra truck driver today at the cost of three or more absent in a week or two’s time,” he says. “So, we now have a Covid-induced labour supply problem.”

    “Even if there’s enough teachers for school to start in the first week, on current trajectory, three weeks after it starts, they’ll be very significant absentees and, you know, everyone presumably is going to be surprised when that happens,” Denniss says.

    When governments ditched health advice, the public might have assumed they had readied carefully honed policies to accommodate the surge in hospital cases, or had fallback measures to flatten that famous infections curve if need.

    Instead, what’s being revealed “is the opposite of planning”, Denniss bemoans. “Hope is not a strategy.”

    Governments smashing this outbreak out of the park.

    Who will be next to die for the scomo cause ,think of the economy,I tells ya.

  11. poroti says:
    Thursday, January 20, 2022 at 5:49 pm
    Late Riser at 5:41 pm
    When or how did fork-lift driving become a federal political issue? I’m asking because I had my head on other things this morning and didn’t see this one coming.

    Bullshit Man Morrison had probably been watching Fox News . The yanks have just had the bran fart suggestion of letting teenagers get behind the wheel of big rig trucks to help with logistics. Scotty thought he’d start a little more modestly and sosuggested fork lifts.

    Whatever brainfart these RW types come up with, Homer and Bart have been there already.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hxGDYn7AHM

  12. I treat all polls with caution after 2019, but I am certainly detecting a very different mood in people I speak to, even rusted on Liberal relatives, than I ever have before. Don’t be surprised to see a similar trend to the one we have seen in recent state elections, with a move to Labor among older voters, who are least likely to appreciate the decision to let COVID rip.

    One thing I will be watching for from here is serious leadership talk. If the Liberals are getting poling that goes anywhere near 56-44, it won’t be long before we start hearing from “anonymous Liberal sources”. Party room rules or not, they won’t go over that sort of electoral cliff with Morrison. Labor should prepare for a switch to Dutton or Frydenberg.

  13. I’m watching Summer Drum… since when has Samantha Maiden become a federal government fan girl?!? She’s defending Morrison’s messaging on COVID and schools.

  17. “I’m watching Summer Drum… since when has Samantha Maiden become a federal government fan girl?!? She’s defending Morrison’s messaging on COVID and schools.”

    She used to pretent a bit (was she even a Guardian ‘lefty’ for a bit?) but then she got a gig with Costello TV or News Corp and since looked like she was auditioning to replace Andrew Bolt or someone of that ill.

  23. I know it has not received a lot of comment but the Federal government really needs to be challenged on recent defense spending announcements. The spending spree has gone quite mad under ReichsPotato Dutton.

    In particular there was a recent decision to spend $3.5 billion to buy new Abrams tansk, to replace our old Abrams tanks. This makes no sense. Our current tanks are only 15 years old, halfway through their life. The governments own 2020 force structure plan does not envisage their replacement till 2035.
    https://www.defence.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-11/Factsheet_Land.pdf

    I have a strong suspicion on why this is being done. The Libs are deliberately “wrecking the joint” financially in case they lose. This money was “spare” because the disastrous Attack Class sub contract was underspent. $2 billion was spent up to cancellation. But a 2018 ASPI paper estimated it would spend $6 billion by the end of the design phase for construction to start in 2023. So they were $4 billion behind.

    It looks like Dutton has simply taken the spare cash and spent it on new tanks we don’t need. And not a single local job will be created. This needs investigation.

  25. Well, well, well, well, well, well, well…

    Novak Djokovic owns a majority stake in a company developing a treatment for COVID-19, multiple reports revealed Wednesday. The multimillionaire tennis star purchased an 80 percent stake in QuantBioRes, based in Denmark, in June 2020. The company expects to soon enter human trials in the U.K. for a drug that delivers a peptide that prevents the infection of human cells by the coronavirus. The company’s CEO stressed in an interview with Reuters that his company’s drug was a treatment, not a vaccine. The world No. 1 was deported from Australia late last week after a lengthy legal fight over his visa precipitated by his refusal to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

    https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/djokovic-buys-80-danish-biotech-developing-covid-19-treatment-ceo-2022-01-19/

  26. A tennis player buying an 80% stake in a biomedical company? That’s gotta be a winner.

    If you ever get a stock tip from an AFL player you know it’s time to get out of that company.

  27. So back to the health system, in decreasing levels of culpability:

    1. Systematic underfunding, under investment and late investment- attributable to both sides and vertical fiscal imbalance plays its role.

    2. Systematic underpaying of health professionals, particularly in traditionally female roles. This is then exacerbated by a boston consultant group disease where you take a function that can be performed by four people with good patient outcomes and no need for overtime and ‘thin it down’. You get rid of two of the staff targetting the most likely too know their rights as employees, ideally without paying redundancy. You then tell the remaining two they need to do the same work plus a couple of new functions in the same time. ‘You empower’ the remaining staff to ‘find efficiencies’ and blame them if they can’t while you bank $10 mm in consultant fees.

    3. The ruthless exercise of power by the AMA.

    4. Add a pandemic where you say health workers are important but show them clearly you don’t really care if they die.

  28. James Webb Space Telescope news: mirror segment deployment (unlocking) complete!

    Interesting snippet from Scott Manley’s YouTube channel: segments A3 and A6 were done last and “differently” because they discovered problems with their sensors during vacuum testing. Replacing the faulty sensors was deemed too expensive, but they had a workaround procedure: thank goodness that was successful.

    Next step: L2 insertion burn in about 3 days time, I think.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaCdVJ7ghk8

  29. Jaeger says:
    Thursday, January 20, 2022 at 7:26 pm

    James Webb Space Telescope news: mirror segment deployment (unlocking) complete!
    ______
    Excellent, I read somewhere the first job is to take a look at the Alpha Centauri system.

  30. “The world No. 1 was deported from Australia late last week after a lengthy legal fight over his visa precipitated by his refusal to be vaccinated against COVID-19.”

    Which everyone in the world, barring the Federal court bench knows is true.

  32. One of the Queenslanders Prime Minister Scott Morrison relies on to pass laws in the Senate has labelled his own leader “pathetic” and accused him of caving in over his criticism of rogue LNP MP George Christensen.

    Mr Christensen announced his impending resignation from a plum position as chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Trade and Investment Growth on Wednesday night, after Mr Morrison confirmed high-level discussions about the MP’s future had taken place.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/pathetic-morrison-under-fire-from-federal-colleague-20220120-p59px2.html

  33. Socrates,

    The decision to buy the Abrams M1A2 SEPv3 tanks was made – and announced – last year well before the Attack Class cancellation hoo-ha. e.g.:

    Australia to receive new main battle tanks – but why? (1 June 2021)
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/special-reports/australia-to-receive-new-main-battle-tanks-but-why/news-story/74145f80d4d78fcc65b6ee619ab266f7

    Spending Attack Class money? No.
    Re-announcing old news as a distraction? Probably.

  34. “It’s hard to remember it all.”

    LR……..Conceptually, that represents a very MAJOR structural member in the somewhat shaky edifice that will be the Liberals campaign in 2022.

  36. Roy Orbison says:
    Thursday, January 20, 2022 at 5:44 pm
    Morgan, which appears to lean Labor, has them at 56. Resolve, which definitely leans LNP, has them at 53. The truth, right now, is probably right in the middle at 54.5.
    ———-
    Mark the Ballot’s recent analysis of polling house effects suggested Morgan was about in the middle of the pack in terms of 2PP “bias” – with Resolve skewed towards the LNP. Essential and Newspoll we’re found to have a marginally larger lean against the LNP. However Bludgertrack does the hard work in juggling all of these variables and yes, before this latest Morgan, ALP 2PP was sitting at a healthy 54.1%

    https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/

  37. ItzaDream:

    Thursday, January 20, 2022 at 3:31 pm

    [‘There are very strong suggestions that nurses in Australia, the US and the UK are being put unnecessarily at intolerable levels of risk.’]

    Indutiably so. Lessees, for example, visit the trailer park office in my part of the woods & complain about wearing (when then remember to bring one, which is about 50:50) a mask for two minutes whereas those at the front line wear PPE for their entire shift. The medical and nursing professions at the front line deserve the greatest respect. To question, even at a cursory level, is quite pathetic.

  39. Frednk says:
    Thursday, January 20, 2022 at 7:48 pm

    I like Laura Tingle, she asks questions and lets the treasurer sink himself, no badgering for the answer she wants.
    ______
    You do tend to like exactly what the other bird likes.

  42. Re Jaeger @7:38

    ” Spending Attack Class money? No.
    Re-announcing old news as a distraction? Probably.”

    Yes. Also trying to change the subject to one of their perceived strengths.

  43. Sad. Here we are all covid and absurd politics.

    Really NOT liking what i am seeing about the Russia / Ukraine thing. Bad, substantially out of control things could happen quite fast. And there WILL be consequences for us.

  47. I suspect Morrison knows the game’s up. The only question to be determined is when will Dutton pounce? I’d suggest after two more adverse Newspolls, there being a subtle uncertainty in his (Morrison’s) bravado.

    ______________________________________

    So, the ratio in the Novax decision was predicated on Hawkes’
    providing reasons, even though under the instant section, he was not required to do so – such is its ambit.

  50. My UAP / Libs suggestion was about something you really want a long way away LWebb for good reasons), orbiting a point that actually has nothing substantial to it.

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