A woman’s place

More on Pearce preselection prospects, another parliamentary retirement announcement, and a poll suggesting WA voters favour Tanya Plibersek over Anthony Albanese.

After an eventful conclusion to the year’s parliamentary sittings, more retirement announcements and preselection news, plus an opinion poll of sorts.

• The Financial Review reports there are two leading candidates to replace Christian Porter as the Liberal candidate in Pearce: Libby Lyons, former director of the Australian Government’s Workplace Gender Equality Agency (and granddaughter of Joseph and Enid Lyons), and Nicole Robbins, a Melville councillor and high school teacher. No mention is made of Miquela Riley and Alyssa Hayden, who featured in a report in The West Australian on Thursday. Michael Read of the Financial Review reports former state Hillarys MP Peter Katsambanis has indicated he would have been a contender had not the state government’s “heavy-handed” border restrictions left him stranded in Melbourne, but he would have had to contend with the party leadership’s clear preference that a woman be selected to succeed Porter.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports Christian Porter’s decision to jump ship was influenced by internal polling for his seat that was, according to a source familiar with the matter, “not good”. However, the remainder of the report emphasises Labor’s hard path to a majority: the Coalition “claim they will hold Bass and Braddon in Tasmania”, “feels comfortable in all-important Queensland but may lose at least one seat”, and “believe they can win Lyons in Tasmania and, if Andrew Constance is preselected, Gilmore in southern NSW”. Elsewhere in the Financial Review, Michael Read of the Financial Review reports both parties expect Labor to win the Melbourne seat of Chisholm from Gladys Liu.

• Damian Drum, who has held the rural Victorian seat of Nicholls (known before 2019 as Murray) for the Nationals since 2016, has announced he will not contest the election. Rob Harris of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals now hope to recover the seat, which Drum won upon the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone. Anticipated Nationals preselection candidates are Sam Birrell, former chief executive of the Committee for Shepparton; Michael Dobbie, former paralympian and staffer to Liberal MP Jane Prentice and Nationals MP Darren Chester; and Amanda McClaren, former Strathbogie Shire mayor. The only Liberal mentioned is Stephen Brooks, a “Cobram school teacher, irrigator and former international commodities trader”. Rob Priestly, Greater Shepparton deputy mayor and co-owner of an industrial laundry firm in Shepparton, recently announced he would run as an independent.

• The Katina Curtis of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals have pushed back the closure of nominations for the Warringah preselection to January 14, in the hope that Gladys Berejiklian might yet agree to run, and also in Parramatta, where the Liberals are hoping the retirement of sitting member Julie Owens will help them knock over the 3.5% Labor margin. State Parramatta MP Geoff Lee has thus far resisted entreaties to run, which have displeased Dominic Perrottet, who would sooner avoid further by-elections.

• The West Australian has a poll by Painted Dog Research in which 801 Western Australian respondents were presented with a four-way preferred prime minister question, putting Scott Morrison at 41%, Tanya Plibersek at 32%, Anthony Albanese at 22% and Peter Dutton at 4%. Plibersek led Morrison by 41% to 36% among women, while Morrison led 47% to 25% among men. When asked who they trusted more out of the Premier and the Prime Minister, Mark McGowan scored 78% and Morrison 22%. Here too there was a significant gender gap, with McGowan’s lead of 71-29 among men comparing with 86-14 among women.

Affairs of state:

• Antony Green notes on Twitter that South Australia’s parliament has adjourned ahead of the election without having corrected the legislative anomaly that means pre-poll votes are not counted on election night, which is now unique to the state. As a result, the election night count will be “quick, over early, but will be very incomplete with no guarantee we will know the outcome until the declaration votes start being counted on the Monday after the election”.

• Yoni Bashan of The Australian reports Bridget Sakr, who has gained prominence as a victims support advocate since her daughter and three of her cousins were killed after in February last year after a ute mounted the kerb, is considering an approach from the New South Wales Liberals to run in the looming Strathfield by-election. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of ousted Labor leader Jodi McKay, who held the seat by 5.0% in 2019.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

937 comments on “A woman’s place”

Comments Page 2 of 19
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  1. ItzaDream @ #46 Saturday, December 4th, 2021 – 8:52 am

    I was holding off on Dune, having posted a glowing review from the Guardian (Bradshaw) before seeing it, at home (pretty good set up, large screen and designer sound system, OH’s business). I was really disappointed, and in fact didn’t finish it in one sitting. A major issue for me casting.

    woops, premature submission.

    And the long shadow of David Lynch, whose genius casting and design and direction looms larger with time, and whose mega footage erratically edited down added (for me) to the weird jarring nightmarish qualities, whereas this French Canadian guy needs to drop some acid (metaphor). I thought Zimmer’s efforts more and more generic. I’m giving it 2 and a half stars Margaret.

  3. ”
    Confessionssays:
    Saturday, December 4, 2021 at 7:12 am
    On Tuesday, as the prime minister prepared to present a report describing sexual harassment, bullying and assault within parliament and its precincts, his deputy warned colleagues to be careful when getting drunk in public in case their pictures ended up in the newspaper.

    Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce urged Coalition MPs to look after each other during end-of-year partying and not undermine the government’s response to the report by Sex Discrimination Commissioner Kate Jenkins, titled “Set the Standard”. He urged them to read it.

    At their weekly party room meeting, Joyce reminded them of the risks inherent in the traditionally festive final parliamentary week of the year. He suggested they could no longer cut loose and assume they would be protected from scrutiny.

    Joyce said with anyone now able to take photographs and send them anywhere, they needed to be careful. How they conducted themselves was “very, very important”, especially with the Jenkins report in focus.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/12/04/exclusive-barnaby-joyce-warns-drunk-mps-after-jenkins-report#mtr

    After Jenkins’ report and the week the parliament had where the worst of the worst abusive behaviour from the coalition and the Greens was on display, Barnaby’s message to the troops wasn’t ‘pull your socks up and be decent human beings’, but ‘have your mate’s back and don’t get caught’.

    I think that says it all.
    ”

    He is working on the premise that a person will be branded a thief only when caught red handed.

  4. Barnaby Joyce warned colleagues to be careful when getting drunk in public in case their pictures ended up in the newspaper,

    That’s funny, from someone who is often on national TV in QT looking frankly sozzled.

  5. I have always given ‘Eraserhead’ 5 stars, David. It’s my favourite movie of all time. Followed closely by John Waters’ movies.

    And, speaking of John Waters *cough*, I’ve been binge watching ‘My Name Is Earl’ on Disney+ with my son recently because he was too young to appreciate it when it first ran on TV, and up pops John Waters in a cameo role as a Funeral Parlour owner. It was so typically John Waters. A 5 star episode. 🙂

  6. Ven:

    Whatever the reason, all it demonstrates is that the coalition have no intention of addressing any of the issues raised in the Jenkins report.

    All they care about is just further sweeping their appalling behaviour under the rug and keeping it away from public view.

  7. Not sure if this has issue has been discussed:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-03/diesel-crisis-adblue-shortage-supply-china/100673482

    Bludgers, how serious is the decision by China to stop urea export? What are our options?

    I also read that South Korea came across this issue last month and procured a temporary supply from Australia. That was a short-lived solution and they are now obtaining supply from Vietnam and increasing internal manufacture. Is this an option for us?

  8. C@tmomma @ #55 Saturday, December 4th, 2021 – 9:05 am

    I have always given ‘Eraserhead’ 5 stars, David. It’s my favourite movie of all time. Followed closely by John Waters’ movies.

    And, speaking of John Waters *cough*, I’ve been binge watching ‘My Name Is Earl’ on Disney+ with my son recently because he was too young to appreciate it when it first ran on TV, and up pops John Waters in a cameo role as a Funeral Parlour owner. It was so typically John Waters. A 5 star episode. 🙂

    Eraserhead is on the shelf, long ago watched, could be tonight’s, but I think the new Jane Campion (Power of the Dog, rave reviews) is now on Netflix, so probably it. Not so familiar with Waters. So many, so little.

  9. So did Frydenberg use the name of Menzies?

    I still await someone – anyone – asking about Menzies – with Holt as treasurer – increasing Company and personal tax rates and increasing the pension

  10. Simon Katich @ #NaN Saturday, December 4th, 2021 – 5:33 am

    Thanks BK.

    I found myself in town last night for the first time since the borders opened. It was busy. Not mad busy tho. It made me think what those city streets will be like in a couple of months with the Fringe, the Tour etc. I know it is crazy to suggest it…. I do wonder if closing some streets to traffic and encouraging more alfresco and less inside gatherings might be something they could try. The mask exemption for eating/drinking is a necessary evil – moving peeps outdoors and better spacing indoors would help.

    I saw Dune. I read BBs post of an unfavourable review during the week and the review has some good points. But I suggest the reviewer is a little confused when saying the movie is an attempt at a classier Marvel. It is nothing like a Marvel movie. My teenage child who loves Marvel found Dune unlikeable and incomprehensible and…. long.

    If one was to try to compare Dune to other movies (which one shouldnt)…. it was more like 2001 – A Space Odyssey mixed with Jason Bourne, Star Wars and Lawrence of Arabia.

    See, I told you one shouldnt compare.

    But you wont be disappointed in the cinematic experience.

    Nice to see Australia is catching up with the rest of the world. 🙂

  12. This week it emerged that the federal government has been working to overturn the capacity of states to meet their targets. An email from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade told the Victorian government it had 14 days to leave a global coalition of subnational governments focused on arresting climate change.

    The ACT, Northern Territory, Queensland and South Australia were also told to leave the consortium because they “failed to properly classify” their involvement in a memorandum of understanding. New South Wales, which is a signatory, is attempting to clarify its position.

    The extraordinary intervention was made under the Foreign Relations (State and Territory Arrangements) Act, which Morrison hastily passed last year. At the time it seemed designed to allow the federal government to tear up Victoria’s Belt and Road partnership with China. Its usage to limit action on climate change is staggering.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/editorial/2021/12/04/the-smallest-man-the-room/163853640013023

  13. Victoria records 1,365 new local COVID-19 cases and nine deaths

    There are now 14,383 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 547 people have died during the current Delta outbreak.

    There are 288 people in hospital with COVID-19, of whom 44 are in intensive care and 20 are on a ventilator.

    The new cases were detected from 67,545 test results received yesterday.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-04/victoria-records-new-covid-cases-and-deaths/100672310

  14. My current predictions for 2022 Federal Election

    Qld: Labor win Leichardt, LNP win one of Lilley and Blair (net result: even)
    NSW: Liberals win one of Eden-Monaro and Gilmore (net gain of one to Coalition)
    Vic: Labor win Chisholm
    SA: Labor win Boothby
    WA: Labor win Pearce, Swan
    Tas: Liberals win Lyons
    Territories: no change

    Final result: net gain of two seats to Labor, national swing of 2.6% to Labor
    Coalition minority government (with a minority of 2PP)

  15. Griff https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/12/04/a-womans-place/comment-page-2/#comment-3766143 “how serious is the decision by China to stop urea export” For me could be an issue in 12months or so. My vehicle uses about 1 litre per 1000 k’s and has a full 18 litre tank. But FB is full of sky is falling posts so expect heaps of panic buying and stock piling the stuff.
    Trucking industry might have a much more urgent problem unless another source is found or its produced locally eg by Orica at Kooragang Is??

  16. Christ, it says something about the state of the government parties that “don’t address the media while shitfaced” is apparently advice many of them need to hear.

  19. lizzie says:
    Saturday, December 4, 2021 at 9:28 am
    This week it emerged that the federal government has been working to overturn the capacity of states to meet their targets. An email from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade told the Victorian government it had 14 days to leave a global coalition of subnational governments focused on arresting climate change.

    The ACT, Northern Territory, Queensland and South Australia were also told to leave the consortium because they “failed to properly classify” their involvement in a memorandum of understanding. New South Wales, which is a signatory, is attempting to clarify its position.

    The extraordinary intervention was made under the Foreign Relations (State and Territory Arrangements) Act, which Morrison hastily passed last year. At the time it seemed designed to allow the federal government to tear up Victoria’s Belt and Road partnership with China. Its usage to limit action on climate change is staggering.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/editorial/2021/12/04/the-smallest-man-the-room/163853640013023

    The Greens campaign 24/7 for the politico-cultural and electoral success of the LNP. They are the enablers of Reactionary domination.

  20. Asha, am I correct in thinking Blair and Lilley are unlikely to be LNP gains?

    I would think Labor is more likely to win seats in Brisbane than lose them?

  21. Terminator @ Saturday, December 4, 2021 at 9:33 am

    Thank you! This issue has totally blindsided me. I knew about Chinese import restrictions, but not export restrictions.

  23. Jimmy:

    I’m not particularly familiar with the area within Blair’s boundaries, but I would be stunned if Labor lost Lilley in the current political climate. The smart money would be on some kind of swing to Labor in most of South East Queensland. (Whether that swing will be enough for Labor to pick up many seats is another story. The margins sadly arn’t Labor’s friend in QLD right now.)

  24. ”This week it emerged that the federal government has been working to overturn the capacity of states to meet their targets.”

    The Federal Government is not only determined to take no action on greenhouse emissions, it is actively blocking emission reduction action by State Governments. Pretty much proof positive that it is working for the fossil fuel lobby.

  33. C@t:

    Very possible. It’s definitely being treated it as a realistic target. I think it’ll most likely be a three-cornered contest between the Libs, Labor, the Greens, with the result dependant on the preferences of whoever comes third.

  34. JimmyD @ #49 Saturday, December 4th, 2021 – 8:58 am

    LVT

    I wonder if Labor just lost the Hunter region yesterday?

    Unlikely but not impossible. It’s no secret that Labor is struggling in the seat of Hunter, and it really can’t afford to lose the seat if it wants to win government. None of the other Hunter region seats are at risk.

    In my view, Labor is functionally offering the same target as 2019, but it is the framing and communication that has undergone a major change. Jobs and prosperity will be the focus for Labor in talking to voters in seats like Hunter – not the moral imperative of addressing climate change.

    As has been noted before, BLUE COLLAR workers in the Hunter electorate saw ALP stalwart Fitzgibbon lose 14% of his primary vote. The Nationals candidate also lost 2.9% of primary vote. So where did those blue collar workers primary vote go to ? One Nation. One nation scored a staggering 21.8 % of the primary vote in Hunter in 2019.

    The blue collar workers could not bring themselves to vote for the Nationals, even if they are more pro mining than the Liberals. However, they were clearly comfortable with abandoning Fitzgibbon and lodging a protest vote,in droves.

    Throw in the recent decision of the Fair Work Commission to tell BHP that they could not impose mandatory vaccines on workers at a Hunter Valley mine and things just get uglier for the ALP.
    —
    Mining giant BHP’s attempt to require all staff at a massive coal mine in the NSW Hunter Valley to be vaccinated against COVID-19 has been rejected by the national industrial tribunal in a blow to private sector jab mandates.

    The Fair Work Commission found BHP had failed to properly consult its staff, including by giving them access to data, and therefore could not show that its mandate was reasonable.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bhp-s-coronavirus-vaccine-mandate-rejected-by-fair-work-commission-20211203-p59eoz.html

    One Nation has been tapping into voter unrest about vaccine mandates so we can expect more leakage of primary votes to them in the Hunter

    The CFMEU in the region are also actively campaigning against mandatory staff vaccinations in mining settings.

    If the Nationals don’t improve their primary vote and One Nation does better than 2019, One Nation could steal the seat from Labor on National Party preferences. OMG. Say it isn’t so Joel. Losing the seat to One Nation is possible, as for the Coalition, nah.

  35. LVT,

    The Rewiring the Nation component creates 116,170 indirect jobs – 4,170 are on going operation and maintenance jobs, the remainder are construction work.

    The modelling indicates that 306,000 induced jobs will be created by the Rewiring The Nation plan.

    Significantly more jobs could be created should the broader economy have access to clean, low-priced electricity. This is anticipated to create a further 306,000 induced jobs, underpinned by competitive advantages attributed to access to abundant, cheap electricity. Competitively priced energy is therefore able to support higher economic growth associated with increased mining, new manufacturing jobs, and a renewable-fuelled energy export sector.

    The increased mining seems to be an input to green steel and aluminium manufacturing…

    Green metals: steel, alumina and aluminium: Enormous opportunities exist to develop green steel manufacturing hubs across Australia using abundant and low-cost renewable energy resources, and green hydrogen. We conservatively model these hubs to benefit from $1.31 billion in financing, developing and scaling up Hydrogen Breakthrough Ironmaking Technology (HYBRIT) to transition from traditional blast furnaces. This is forecast to reduce emissions by more than 4 Mt per year by 2030. Like steel, alumina and aluminium production is highly energy- and carbon-intensive. Funding support for reliable and affordable firmed renewable electricity is therefore a key enabler for competitive green metals production in Australia, delivering emissions reductions of almost 5 Mt per year by 2030.

    The Swedish researchers developing HYBRIT are still at trial stages of the project and their website states “The goal is to have a solution for fossil-free steel by 2035”. So there seems to be a bit of timeline acceleration involved here.

  36. Asha @ #82 Saturday, December 4th, 2021 – 10:09 am

    C@t:

    Very possible. It’s definitely being treated it as a realistic target. I think it’ll most likely be a three-cornered contest between the Libs, Labor, the Greens, with the result dependant on the preferences of whoever comes third.

    I think so too. It could be a smokey out of the box on election night if Labor choose (have chosen?) a good candidate. Arch Bevis was the ideal candidate for that seat and why he held on so long I reckon. From the Urbane Labor faction. 😉

    Will The Greens run with Andrew Bartlett again? I don’t think it will improve their vote from last time if they do. Maybe the Brisbane Greens’ Councillor?

    I just think that Trevor Evans has been a bit of a damp squib. He doesn’t even seem to stand up for LGBTIQ issues in federal parliament the way Dean Smith and Trent Zimmerman do. Did he even say anything about the Religious Discrimination Bill?

  37. It is always interesting when your predictions start coming true:

    1. The biodiversity of the Great Barrier Reef is already changing as heat tolerant corals replace heat sensitive corals.
    2. Biodiversity loss is accelerating as heat sensitive species are taken out of the system.
    3. The Tourism industry is farming parts of the Reef to maintain tourism targets.
    4. None of the reef “miracle’ management fixes are scaleable.
    5. Species are moving down the water column and southwards.
    6. Given the increasing intensity and incidence of heating events, scientists should NEVER use the term ‘recovery’. Each ‘recovery’ event is now only a ‘partial recovery’ even.
    6. The Reef is gone.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-04/hold-sat-scott-reef-bounces-back-after-severe-bleaching-but-scie/100644210

  38. The “highly transmissible” Omicron variant of coronavirus ripping through South Africa is putting disproportionately large numbers of children under 5 years old in hospitals, a top South African government medical adviser said Friday.

    The alarming development raises the prospect of a new global battle cycle against the virus, given that the new variant has already spread to dozens of countries. The South African scientists also said the new variant was spreading much quicker than any previous wave of the coronavirus.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/omicron-variant-puttings-huge-numbers-of-kids-under-5-years-old-in-hospital-in-south-africa

  39. Stephen Marshall is about to hold a press conference probably to close SA borders with Vic, NSW and ACT.
    So will Morrison castigate this Liberal government for abrogating the National Plan™?

  40. EB,

    The One Nation vote last time was predominately a protest vote. If it started looking like One Nation was becoming a real prospect, a lot of voters would move back to Labor.

    But Labor does need to offer something to these voters.

  41. Lars Von Triet says:
    Saturday, December 4, 2021 at 8:49 am

    I wonder if Labor just lost the Hunter region yesterday?

    Not if Albo offers them a job where they don’t get DIRTY!.

  43. “a poll suggesting WA voters favour Tanya Plibersek over Anthony Albanese”…

    Ha, ha,…. and in the same sample 22% preferred Peter Dutton….
    Okay, let’s smile…. and move on….

    Just focus on WA with regard to the coming 2PP at the Federal election…. that’s truly going to be “interesting”… 🙂

  44. “The Coalition “claim they will hold Bass and Braddon in Tasmania”, “feels comfortable in all-important Queensland but may lose at least one seat”, and “believe they can win Lyons in Tasmania and, if Andrew Constance is preselected, Gilmore in southern NSW”. “…

    Oh well, it costs nothing to be optimistic before an election…. Let’s see how that Liberal party optimism holds afterwards!… 🙂

  45. “the Liberals have pushed back the closure of nominations for the Warringah preselection to January 14, in the hope that Gladys Berejiklian might yet agree to run”…

    Yes Gladys, run….. run, Gladys!…. Ha, ha….

  46. Asha says:
    Saturday, December 4, 2021 at 9:42 am
    Jimmy:

    I’m not particularly familiar with the area within Blair’s boundaries, but I would be stunned if Labor lost Lilley in the current political climate. The smart money would be on some kind of swing to Labor in most of South East Queensland. (Whether that swing will be enough for Labor to pick up many seats is another story. The margins sadly arn’t Labor’s friend in QLD right now.)

    The plurality has been absolutely smashed over the years in QLD – most spectacularly in 2019 – with the result that the 2PP margins are very comfortable for the LNP. The Greens will try to make sure it stays that way, effectively propping up the Reactionaries. This is not accidental on the part of the Labor-Phobic Greens. It is knowingly done. It is celebrated and promoted by them 24/7.

    The Greens are complicit in the failures – the incompetence, the corruption, the mistakes, the sexism, the denialism and the deceptions – of the Morrison Government. They helped to elect them. They will help their re-election by their polemics and their stunts, which are invariably aimed at disabling Labor.

  47. Bloos, I really do wonder what you are trying to achieve by saying the exact same goddamn thing 40-50 times each day. Have some mercy on your poor Ctrl, C, and V keys.

  49. Boerwar says:
    Saturday, December 4, 2021 at 10:17 am

    Changes in the marine environment are truly massive in scale and reach. Overwhelming is the word. Overwhelming, irresistible and irreversible. They will affect all terrestrial life in time.

  50. “You make the obvious point – why would u vote for the party of change (Labor) if it’s not actually proposing any substantive change?”…

    My dear Lars von Tired, you missed the obvious point that Zali is essentially running on a single policy and she will get preferences from both ALP and Greens voters anyway, only because she can defeat the Liberals…. The ALP is running on a whole program for the nation, which is exactly what the Coalition have failed so miserably to do since 2013!

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