The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 54-46, out from 53-47 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down two), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (up one). Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 46% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 37% and down one on disapproval to 46%. Morrison leads 48-34 as preferred prime minister, out marginally from 47-34. More to follow.
UPDATE: The poll also finds 35% saying Anthony Albanese and Labor would be better at “leading Australia’s response to the global climate change crisis”, 28% favouring Scott Morrison and the Coalition, and 21% saying both would be equal. It also find a continuation of a significant shift on what the federal government should prioritise out of energy prices, carbon emissions and preventing blackouts, which has now been asked four times going back to 2017. From July 2018 to February 2020 to the present, the response for carbon emissions has escalated from 24% to 43% to 47%, while energy prices has declined from 63% to 42% to 40%. Preventing blackouts has been steady, going from 9% to 11% to 10%. I am not able to access a sample size of the poll because I can’t get The Australian’s online printed edition to work, but the poll will have been conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.
UPDATE 2: The sample was 1515 – the methodology statement for the poll can be viewed here.
On scotties net sats. He’s had pretty much perfect conditions. The fact that he can’t even manage a 0 is embarrassing for him.
An entire term of rally ‘round the flag opportunities, which have also allowed him to completely disregard the ‘debt and deficit is hitler’ mantra that helped the liberals in opposition.
He’s not had to govern and has just avoided making any decision that could lose him votes. Sure, avoiding your problems does t make them go away, but that’s the next PMs problem.
He’s also been blessed with labor taking their strategy from UK labour – just be the liberals and agree with everything they say, but put on a facade of pretending to be left wing. I understand why albo went this direction, he saw what happened to labor when they tried to be too ambitious. But he needed to go for a middle ground.
It was mentioned on this blog that Peter van Onselen mentioned on Insiders that four or five seats are gone in WA on current polling. The seats (Swan, Hasluck, and Pearce) were not a surprise. But interestingly he also mentioned Canning.
Canning is the type of seat that Labor just hasn’t been able to get over line. Senior state Labor figure Alannah Mactiernan temporarily gave up her state career to nominate for it in 2010. By then it looked certain she would win, but Rudd didn’t go for the double disillusion. And then what resulted was (Abbott scare campaign on the CPRS, Mining Tax, and Gillard’s challenge) and Mactiernan political gamble was suddenly left in the dust.
Andrew Hastie seat has a 11.6% margin. It will be a tough one to crack and Labor hasn’t preselected a candidate yet. So it should be interesting…..
Oh look, you can have tons of infection and death and then lockdowns on top, or just frontload the lockdowns and not have the infection and death. Such a simple choice.
A pity that literally no one bothered pointing that out until just now. 🙄
”
Late Risersays:
Monday, October 25, 2021 at 1:15 am
Speaking of mug punters, the centre, the swinging voter, the undecideds, etc., who will decide the next election, I think they will be focussed on Morrison. Last election people looked hard at Shorten, who ironically was the only stable leader on offer, and decided to give Morrison a “proper go”. But that strategy won’t work for Morrison this time. He’s had a go, to quote the man, and has shown us someone who runs away from problems, sometimes literally, or who tries to talk his way out of them. This time Morrison is under the spotlight. We “punters” know an election is coming. The last couple of years haven’t been that great. Morrison’s position is fundamentally weak.
As an aside, I spotted this image recently, possibly yesterday, ABC.net.au.
”
That is one evil laugh.
I think the argument that “the polls were wrong in 2019” is a little overblown. The 2PP heading into the election was 51-49 to the ALP, and the final result was 51-49 to the Coalition. That’s obvious a mis-reading, but a 2% flip is well within the standard margin of error. I suspect where the polls did get it wrong in 2019 was with the ALP primary vote (most polls had them around 35-36%, whereas they ended up just over 33%), and of mis-allocating where the “Others” vote was distributed. We do tend to get a bit obsessed here with the polling 2PP, which is understandable, seeing as how the real-world figure is what makes and breaks governments, but when it comes to polling the 2PP is really just an educated guess by pollsters. So we should probably look at the primary vote as much as the 2PP, and here there is probably some cause for hope and some cause for alarm for both the major parties. Both Labor and Coalition are polling around the 37/38% mark, which would obviously be a big improvements for the ALP, and a corresponding decline for the Libs. But adding in the MoE, we get Labor possibly as low as the 33% nadir of recent elections, and the LNP as high as the low 40s (obviously vice versa is also possible, though I think unlikely), which should tell us that the result of the next election, whenever it is, is still up for grabs.
In other words, the 2019 polls weren’t actually that wrong, it’s just that most political analysts don’t understand how to read polling.
Player One says:
Monday, October 25, 2021 at 10:05 am
max @ #81 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 7:03 am
I am still really dumbstruck that Sfm only has a netsat of – 4 and that 46% of the electorate gives him a favourable rating.
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You have to take into account that Albo is not very popular even among Labor voters. To most he’s just another empty suit.
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That might account for Morrison being ahead on PPM and for Albo’s own relatively low approval ratings. It’s not as obvious that it accounts for the fact that, when asked if they approve of Sfm’s performance, without reference to any alternative, 46% of voters, according to this poll, give it a thumbs up. I find that surprising.
Hugoaugogo
Thanks for the post. Primary voting intention would seem a more reliable indicator than projected 2PP. But I’m curious why you think the MOE might be skewed.
a rsays:
Monday, October 25, 2021 at 10:16 am
With Covid cases soaring, the UK has moved a step closer to re-enforcing restrictions in a bid to stop infections rising even further.
Oh look, you can have tons of infection and death and then lockdowns on top, or just frontload the lockdowns and not have the infection and death. Such a simple choice.
A pity that literally no one bothered pointing that out until just now.
__________________________________________
I reckon if we just close Melbourne for the month of July, we’d probably avoid most issues…
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lies.
Steve777says:
Monday, October 25, 2021 at 7:44 am
We keep seeing statements that the Nationals have agreed to a target of net zero emissions by 2050, but there is no detail publicly available and apparently no intermediate target. Then we have Barnaby waffling on about an something like an agreement to have a process to maybe move to zero by 2050…
That’s not a plan. It’s not even an intention. They’re certainly not fooling the world with that. With the help of media allies, they’re hoping to fool enough punters.
”
As the saying goes ” you can fool some people all the time and all people for sometime but not all people all the time.
What Morrison and Joyce are trying to do is to fool all the people for sometime i.e. till the next election.
The reasoning behind that is that Morrison thinks he is marketing genius and Joyce thinks he is greatest retail politician in Australia.
@Political Nightwatchman
Agree with most of what you say. However, in spite of NewsCorp control of major newspapers in Australia and TV media, the influence of social media and the increasing coverage of independent digital newspapers like The Guardian, Crikey and New Daily have made large inroads into a once powerful printed media influence. I suggest that will play a significant role in the next election compared to 2019. All Parties will harness social media but the Murdoch printed media will not have the impact it once had.
I suspect Independents of the Centre will play a larger than life part in the election.
Ven
Re that image. It shows me a man revelling in his power and his opponent’s lack of it. His decisions are framed by his addiction. We had a discussion some time back where the word sociopath featured.
Hugoaugogo says:
Monday, October 25, 2021 at 10:18 am
In other words, the 2019 polls weren’t actually that wrong, it’s just that most political analysts don’t understand how to read polling.
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True but in Australian elections the polls have a generally had a good track record on getting the result right -less so with the margin. And in 2019 all the major polls were pointing in more or less the same direction and had been for months – even years. That message probably played into a conventional wisdom that with its record of internal conflict and dysfunction, the LNP was toast. It was not to be.
In retrospect as some people have pointed out (in fact some commentators might have commented on this at the time) the near uniformity of the final sets of pre-election polls in terms of numbers and margins should have triggered alarm bells. It looked suspiciously like herding.
Alpha Zero @ #158 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 9:25 am
If you had compliance with that strategy instead of protests in the streets and avoided interstate reseeding events, it probably would have.
”
change.
ItzaDreamsays:
Monday, October 25, 2021 at 8:27 am
The focus on 2050 is bogus. Without 2030 parameters being met, tipping points will be passed. Where’s that youtube on 2050 vs 2030 and the half life of Methane (short) when you want it. Help. It explains how the 2050 mark was a setup by the emitters to delay the deadlines by looking at GHG levels over 100 years when the critical timeframe is alarmingly shorter.
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Itzadream
As per Paris summit, the goal was to restrict global warming to 1.5 ℃ by end of century. According to some experts the world has already reached 1.1 ℃ . So it is next to impossible to meet that target. We are currently on a target to reach 3℃ by end of century.
So it imperative that that the world reaches half of net zero target by 2030 to curb the warming to. 2℃..
https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/can-we-slow-or-even-reverse-global-warming
P1
1. “You have to take into account that Albo is not very popular even among Labor voters.”
Citation please.
2. “To most he’s just another empty suit.”
Despite what you would like to think, you don’t get to speak on behalf of “most”.
Ven
We’ll have to depend on the rest of the world because it’s obvious that Australia won’t be any help.
Test.
From 9 Entertainment, the Liberal Party broadsheet
“Sports Minister, Pakula, said no decision had been made on letting unvaccinated people into Australia”
For the Australian Open
So the Victorian State Minister for Sport controls the Nation’s border policy
No mention in the headline or the promotion paragraph of the Federal Government and that the decision is not with the State government
The Libs and their cheer squad must be getting desperate
In their protection of the Pentecostal with the glass jaw
It looks increasingly like Victoria has peaked. These are the 5- and 7-day centred averages of initially reported* local Covid cases:
NSW might be levelling off around 300 daily cases, or it might be starting to turn back upwards. Time will tell. Here are the 3-day centred averages of initially reported local Covid cases:
* Note: Victorian cases in particular are being retrospectively adjusted downwards, sometimes by over 100 (e.g. Oct 23). I don’t know what that is. The graphs show what was initially reported.
Player One @ Monday, October 25, 2021 at 10:05 am
“You have to take into account that Albo is not very popular even among Labor voters. To most he’s just another empty suit.”
Evidence please? Or is this just a feelpinion? It can’t be your feelpinion though, as you aren’t a Labor voter 😉
In contrast, the Newspoll figures align Albanese’s performance rather well with Labor voting: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-morrison-government-trailing-as-key-states-drift-away/news-story/47f2965caf63f624a155d52402f72f69#&gid=null&pid=1
There is a slight bump in Albanese’s home state.
Been There @ Monday, October 25, 2021 at 10:43 am
Looks like PlayerOne has already been rumbled. I should have read further along 🙂
Late Riser – I’m not statistician, but I do know that any opinion poll is really just a best guess from a polling company about what the electorate looks like, and therefore how the population as a whole will vote in an actual election. This means that if a pollster over-estimates how many Labor votyers there are, they will get the voting figure wrong, whioch is what probably happened in 2019. Normally, that best guess is more accurate the closer to an election we are (given that the vast majority of voters don’t pay anything near the amount of attention to politics that we tragics do), but it’s still only an estimate. Polling always comes with it a “margin of error”, of course, with the generally accepted figure quite possibly +/- around 3%, which is why I think the primary vote estimates need to be taken with a grain of salt, even if they are most probably in the ballpark.
A tweet from Dr Bonham on ppm
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Greensborough Growlersays:
Monday, October 25, 2021 at 9:25 am
Brydon Coverdale
@brydoncoverdale
·
17h
Imagine having been in government for eight years and then a week before a major international climate summit, still scrambling to sort out your climate plans. If our leaders can’t plan months ahead, how on earth can they plan years ahead? It’s an indictment and an embarrassment.
”
If our leaders can’t plan months ahead, how on earth can they plan years ahead?
Actually, It is an indictment on Australian society. Although we are an affuent, in general we plan for months ahead not years ahead i.e. especially when it comes to boomers.
For example, the LNP government blew away mining boom in naughties on tax cuts without a thought for future and majority of Australians supported that move by repeatedly voting for LNP.
If Keating hadn’t forced compulsory Superannuation on Australian people, we will not any savings in old age.
The problem isnt that one pollster got it wrong. The brouhaha is that they all got it wrong.
That could be a ‘herding’ thing.
Or it could be an accuracy thing; there may be a new problem (as polling in Aus has traditionally been reliable) in polling methods that pollsters are all missing. Shy Tory effects, reduced response rates, decline in landlines, third party preference patterns etc.
Or it could be a one off.
Griff,
All good.
You put it much more eloquently than me.
Vogon Poet says:
Monday, October 25, 2021 at 11:02 am
A tweet from Dr Bonham on ppm
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
No no no no no.
Scott Morrison has a *** very slightly below the historic average lead over Anthony Albanese in the latest #Newspoll ***
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Very informative context. Ah psephologists! …..can’t live with them, can’t live without them….
Just before the 2019 election Mark the Ballot was talking about the problem of the polls herding.
https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2019/05/two-polls.html
https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2019/05/why-i-am-troubled-by-polls.html
Might be worth noting that Newspoll had the ALP 2PP (and primary) in QLD 2020 election at 51.5 (37). 53.2 (39.6) was the result.
Hugoaugogo @ #172 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 10:01 am
Thank you. I fully agree. And then there’s the extrapolation from primary to 2PP, which adds additional uncertainty. But it was your other comment about “vice versa” being “unlikely” that got me thinking.
MoE is always (as far as I’ve seen) quoted as if there is an equal chance of being wrong in either direction, plus or minus. Clearly that’s a simplification, since you’ll never get less than 0% (or more than 100%) in any poll. But if your gut feel, if I may call it that, is that the ALP’s MoE is not the same as the Coalition’s MoE, then that’s a new thought for me. Is the spread greater for the ALP? Or should the ALP value be discounted and then who gets the ‘stolen’ percentages? etc.
Possibly you meant that any extreme value of MoE is unlikely and I’ve read too much into your comment. Just curious. 🙂
Big A Adrian @ #135 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 9:25 am
Not home and hosed then. Damn you Big Adrian!
So the Right Wing attack is on the Labor Leader, and just agreeing with everything the Liberals say.
A personal attack presented as faint praise.
I think closing Melbourne for the month of July would be a popular idea 🙂
Observer @ #168 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 10:53 am
I wonder how feral Newscorp will become in protecting Morrison.
If the ALP wins, there is the prospect of a Royal Commission into the Murdoch Media that no doubt they will not want. Rudd is still actively pushing that.
Australia’s own Social Credit system is still alive and kicking!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-24/cashless-debit-card-bill-labor-liberal-welfare/100563848
a r
“Oh look, you can have tons of infection and death and then lockdowns on top, or just frontload the lockdowns and not have the infection and death. Such a simple choice.”
But you see, the policy in the UK is to infect as many people as quickly as possible. That’s always been the policy. Its only now that they are running out of spare police and firemen to drive ambulances that they are doing something.
My concern is that “you’re all gonna get it, just form an orderly queue” is the unstated policy here.
Late Riser – my pessimism about Labor’s chances of reaching a PV of 40%+ is rooted partly in being a long-suffering ALP member, and so I prefer (for self-preservation reasons) to err on the downside. It’s also the case that the ALP hasn’t got a PV in the 40s (at least, not federally) since 2007, which suggests something of a long-term structural issue for the party (not least the fact that the Greens seem to have permanently claimed 10% of voters who might otherwise vote Labor). Another thing to note is that federal Labor has consistently come up short of what polling has predicted over the last decade or so, and so consequently I think my suggestion that Labor is more likely to come in lower in the MoE than higher is probably a reasonable one.
This conversation article talks about what went wrong with polls in 2019
https://theconversation.com/final-2019-election-results-education-divide-explains-the-coalitions-upset-victory-118601
“Areas with low levels of tertiary education swung strongly to the Coalition in NSW and Queensland, but less so in Victoria. There were solid swings to Labor in areas with high levels of tertiary education.
Some of the swings are explained by contrary swings in 2016, when the Coalition under Malcolm Turnbull performed relatively worse in lower-educated areas and better in higher-educated areas. However, Queensland’s 58.4% two-party vote for the Coalition was 1.4% better than at the 2013 election, even though the national result is 2.0% worse. The large swings to the Coalition in regional Queensland are probably partly due to the Adani coal mine issue.
Morrison’s appeal to lower-educated voters
Since becoming prime minister, Scott Morrison’s Newspoll ratings have been roughly neutral, with about as many people saying they are satisfied with him as those dissatisfied. After Morrison became leader, I suggested on my personal website that the Coalition would struggle with educated voters, and this occurred in the election. However, Morrison’s appeal to those with a lower level of education more than compensated.”
However, the pollsters would have compensated for this since. Hence there’s cause to believe that the current polls are more likely to be correct.
Morrison appealing to the less well educated is a proposition that makes perfect sense.
That’s also a sad fact in the US.
“MoE is always (as far as I’ve seen) quoted as if there is an equal chance of being wrong in either direction, plus or minus.”
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A common misconception. As I understand it, the ‘headline’ figure in the middle is the most likely correct, with descending levels of likelihood the further towards the edge of the MOE you get.
Labor should be prosecuting the emissions reduction commitments not on the basis of % by date alone. It should be pointing out that it is all about the area beneath the emissions rate/time curve. This is what determines the total amount of emissions put into the atmosphere, this issue being the cumulative additive effects of them.
If there was a straight line reduction in emissions this would result in a far greater reduction emissions added over the period up to 2050 than what would occur if we had a dogleg curve with a slow change leading up to an heroic finish to the same point.
BK
Agreed, but that is far too cerebral for the average voter aint it?
Been There @ #165 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 10:43 am
I don’t – it is the polls that do. For example, have a look at the Essential Report for May this year, which seems to be the last time they did breakdowns by voting intention:
https://essentialvision.com.au/tag/preferred-pm
i.e. Albo got well below 50% even amongst Labor voters. He was in fact more popular with Green voters than with Labor voters, which is a little ironic, don’t you think?
Albo did sometimes manage to get to 50% with Labor voters, and may do so again before the election, but this can hardly be called a ringing endorsement, can it?
Penny Wong is on a short fuse trying to extract an answer of any description from Birmingham on any question about the Nats’ climate demands.
Why does she bother?
Agreed, but that is far too cerebral for the average voter aint it?
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But it shouldn’t stop them trying, Cud. It really is a significant point of difference that otherwise would be neutered by Morrison and the lazy media.
Griff @ #171 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 11:00 am
Keep reading.
BK @ Monday, October 25, 2021 at 11:48 am
Hmm….AUC is a traditionally a foreign concept to many. Perhaps there might be a general improvement in understanding this concept as a result of COVID and watching the case and hospitalisation rates?
For mine the only thing the personal ratings are telling us is that more people have a definite opinion on Morrison than Albo.