Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A nudge in the wrong direction for the Coalition in the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 54-46, out from 53-47 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down two), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (up one). Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 46% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 37% and down one on disapproval to 46%. Morrison leads 48-34 as preferred prime minister, out marginally from 47-34. More to follow.

UPDATE: The poll also finds 35% saying Anthony Albanese and Labor would be better at “leading Australia’s response to the global climate change crisis”, 28% favouring Scott Morrison and the Coalition, and 21% saying both would be equal. It also find a continuation of a significant shift on what the federal government should prioritise out of energy prices, carbon emissions and preventing blackouts, which has now been asked four times going back to 2017. From July 2018 to February 2020 to the present, the response for carbon emissions has escalated from 24% to 43% to 47%, while energy prices has declined from 63% to 42% to 40%. Preventing blackouts has been steady, going from 9% to 11% to 10%. I am not able to access a sample size of the poll because I can’t get The Australian’s online printed edition to work, but the poll will have been conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.

UPDATE 2: The sample was 1515 – the methodology statement for the poll can be viewed here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,121 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 23
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  1. Craig Reucassel
    @craigreucassel
    ·
    1m
    You know when a teenager creates an atmosphere of such low expectations that you end up congratulating them for the bare minimum, like putting one plate in a dishwasher.

    Anyway, so the Nationals have agreed to Net Zero by 2050.

  2. By being one of the propaganda hacks for the Federal and NSW lib/nats , Could it be that Phil Coorey is actually the man who saved Australians from

    Gladys Berejiklian – Gone

    Scott Morrison and Barnaby Joyce -Pending to be gone

  3. So we have a PM who is sceptical of man made Climate Change and a Deputy PM who blatantly does not believe in man made Climate Change managing a process of net zero emissions by 2050 as the centre piece of Australia’s response to man made Climate Change.

    Hmm.

  4. So many ‘executives’ think they’re above the law, but think they are qualified to advice the rest of us.

    The man who spearheaded Australia’s post-COVID-19 economic task force has been charged with breaching Western Australia’s coronavirus border restrictions during a private helicopter flight from Queensland.

    Police alleged Neville Power and a 36-year-old man failed to complete G2G passes before flying into WA on October 9.

    Mr Power, 63, was the head of the National COVID-19 Commission Advisory Board and is the former chief executive of Fortescue Metals Group.

    He is the current chairman of Perth Airport and the Royal Flying Doctor’s Service.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-25/neville-power-charged-with-breaching-wa-coronavirus-restrictions/100564474

  6. mundo says:
    Monday, October 25, 2021 at 8:23 am

    Pretty sure that horse is dead, Scott.
    ——————————————–

    Don’t think so

  8. The focus on 2050 is bogus. Without 2030 parameters being met, tipping points will be passed. Where’s that youtube on 2050 vs 2030 and the half life of Methane (short) when you want it. Help. It explains how the 2050 mark was a setup by the emitters to delay the deadlines by looking at GHG levels over 100 years when the critical timeframe is alarmingly shorter.

  10. If Labor didn’t announce they will be introducing a strong form of anti-corruption style commission , Scott Morrison leadership would likely ended, same as Abbott and Turnbull with the federal election only month/s away.

    The rest of the liberal party members on the front bench are very scared of being the first Liberal Party leader to be fronting the federal anti-corruption style commission

  11. Space Kidette Rocket
    @SpaceKidette
    ·
    8m
    Net Zero is nothing more than the use of a ‘green’ term to turn negative focus group feedback positive for the #LNP.

    There are still no policies, no substance, no vision, & most importantly no action.

    It is nothing more than another of Morrison’s ’empty vessel’ announcements.

  12. @noplaceforsheep
    ·
    1h
    It’s not “a historic deal” between coalition partners. It’s two corrupt sociopathic criminals dealing their way to an outcome that benefits both.

  14. Sean Kelly in the SMH:
    In 2022, Morrison will run on that sense of ordinary patriotism again. You can see this already, in Angus Taylor’s description of the government’s minimal climate ambition as doing things “the Australian way”. If Labor asks people to vote against this idea, what is it offering in its place? What is it that Albanese represents?
    The interesting fact is that Labor people know this. They’re not in denial: they know that Albanese’s relative anonymity is a problem that has to be fixed. But they will tell you, too, that it’s better than being disliked, and that it’s also an opportunity. They believe it’s both, and they are probably right.
    But the truth is that whether you think it is a problem or an opportunity you are left with what amounts to the same question. If it’s a problem, when is Labor going to fix it? If it’s an opportunity, when is Labor going to grasp it?

  15. Whilst “our” government hides behind a person in a uniform using that ploy to attempt to gain credibility

    325,000 booster injections in one day, a record

    So, at that rate, well over 2 million a week

    The population of Sydney is?

    Mind you, the final one of our 5 children to receive her second dose was eligible yesterday

    They are all in their 30’s

    But at least they have all finally got there

    I repeat

    I wonder if the Pentecostal with the glass jaw will receive his booster whilst in the UK?

    Spreading his emissions every time he opens his mouth and flaps his arms

  16. Mundo,

    Libs like you should try harder.

    I’d say at 54/46 TPP the opportunity has been grasped. At 54/46 TPP the problem is all the LNPs.

  17. Nancy Baxter and Brendan Crabb

    Keeping COVID numbers low presents a substantial challenge, especially in deeply fatigued NSW and Victoria.

    But as OzSAGE, an Australian network of scientists providing advice on COVID, has detailed, it can be achieved with a deliberate “vaccines-plus” strategy.

    The “plus” includes a range of minimally disruptive measures to keep transmission down, such as improving ventilation and maintaining the use of masks in higher risk settings. Victoria’s schools’ package is the best current example of appropriate ambition in this space.

    International examples tell us vaccines-plus works vastly better than vaccine-only.

    https://theconversation.com/covid-doesnt-need-to-run-rampant-here-are-6-ways-to-keep-cases-low-in-the-next-year-170207?

  21. “to expand into China, with the help of former Trade Minister, Andrew Robb” (whose photo adorns the wall)

    I thought we were going to War with China (when our submarine arrives in 40 years time!)

  23. Virginia Trioli reporting 1,461 new cases in Victoria

    Victoria has recorded 1,461 new local COVID-19 cases and seven deaths as the state moves closer to having more of its restrictions eased this Friday.

    There are now 24,831 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 230 people have died during the current Delta outbreak.

    The new cases were detected from 56,905 test results received yesterday.

    There were 27,859 doses of vaccine administered at state-run sites yesterday, as well as more vaccinations at GP clinics and other venues.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-25/victoria-records-new-local-covid-cases-and-deaths/100564616

  26. ” You can see this already, in Angus Taylor’s description of the government’s minimal climate ambition as doing things ‘the Australian way’.”

    The rejoinder would be something like “the Australian way is to tackle problems and overcome them, not put off action for 30 years”.

  27. “Indeed. As was true in 2019.”
    —————

    The libs had a change of leader at this same stage of the election cycle, and won during the peak of the honeymoon period.

    Scomo then quickly changed the rules so a challenge to a sitting liberal PM is virtually impossible.

    Unlike 2019, the electorate have had 3 years to get to know, and judge, Scomo properly.

  28. Confessions says:
    Monday, October 25, 2021 at 8:04 am

    It’s only if you were at the venue at the exact time the Covid positive was there.

    You mentioned you had been in a venue that someone Covid positive had visited.

    Were you there in the exact time frame or some other time that day?

    If it was some other time frame you won’t be notified.

  29. Big A Adrian @ #126 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 9:16 am

    “Indeed. As was true in 2019.”
    —————

    The libs had a change of leader at this same stage of the election cycle, and won during the peak of the honeymoon period.

    Scomo then quickly changed the rules so a challenge to a sitting liberal PM is virtually impossible.

    Unlike 2019, the electorate have had 3 years to get to know, and judge, Scomo properly.

    Home and hosed then. Phew.

  30. Steve777 @ #125 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 9:12 am

    ” You can see this already, in Angus Taylor’s description of the government’s minimal climate ambition as doing things ‘the Australian way’.”

    The rejoinder would be something like “the Australian way is to tackle problems and overcome them, not put off action for 30 years”.

    ‘
    “the Australian way is to tackle problems and overcome them, not put off action for 30 years”.
    Mr Albanese said.

  33. Big A,

    The Polls also clearly got it wrong in 2019 and the pollsters have admitted that and have changed their methodologies and processes.

    But, Moaning Mundo will never give up on the Libs.

  34. @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    6m
    Watch how media make a policy like vaccine passports ‘controversial’ in Victoria, but treat it as completely normal and legitimate in NSW, every other state, the whole of Europe, China and the US. This biased ‘Victoria is the exception not the rule’ has defined pandemic coverage.

  35. “Home and hosed then. Phew.”
    ————–

    Typical inane glibness from the resident one trick pony.

    No, they are not home and hosed. You did however seek to equate now with the same time in the last election cycle. I pointed out just one of the many glaring differences.

  36. Brydon Coverdale
    @brydoncoverdale
    ·
    17h
    Imagine having been in government for eight years and then a week before a major international climate summit, still scrambling to sort out your climate plans. If our leaders can’t plan months ahead, how on earth can they plan years ahead? It’s an indictment and an embarrassment.

  37. Today’s much improved infections number for Vic. knocks Reff down to 0.91, according to Billington. The daily numbers in Vic. are very volatile, but it does seem now that the peak has been passed. So we are starting to move away from a phase of Covid which I thought might favour the LNP (vaccination largely complete, NSW reopened and Covid relatively controlled, Vic still closed and Covid relatively uncontrolled). And the impact of all this on the polls? None at all! The ALP 2PP of 53-54 seems quite stable. So we have evidence that the poor polling of the LNP is not some transitory effect from Covid-related issues. I still think the election will be very close, and I still worry about Albanese’s competence in delivering his lines, but I’m feeling just a little more confident about Labor’s chances.

  38. GG – indeed.

    Newspoll were about 3 points out in the 2pp in 2019. This would mean the current 2pp would be 51-49 – still to labor.

    We’ll see if the polls narrow like they did in 2019 – but for me, the key components including a new leader in his honeymoon, a perceived ‘damaged goods’ opposition leader, a ‘big target’ labor platform – are just not there this time round. Instead we’ve had 3 years of smarmy, corrupt, vacuousness, which most people can evidently (according to consistent in-depth polling) see through.

  39. At 1461,Vic case numbers today are lowest in around 3 weeks, but the testing numbers are also around the lowest in 4 weeks. Still not all that clear what’s going on. Reff was slightly above 1 before today’s numbers.

  40. Greensborough Growler @ #103 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 7:49 am

    So we have a PM who is sceptical of man made Climate Change and a Deputy PM who blatantly does not believe in man made Climate Change managing a process of net zero emissions by 2050 as the centre piece of Australia’s response to man made Climate Change.

    Hmm.

    Nice. I am sending this to Sharkie. I suggest everyone who cares about Climate Change in an electorate a centre right independent has a shot at winning sends it to that candidate as well. It isnt just the big parties that need to be kept honest.

  41. Parramatta Moderate – just saw your 9:34 am post. Good news on the Reff for Vic. In terms of COVID trends and political impact, I’d suspect a lot depends on whether case numbers do start climbing again significantly following loosening of the lockdown. That has not happened very noticeably in NSW so far, despite the predictions.

    However there seems to be evidence from overseas that different places can have different outcomes when restrictions are lifted. A precipitous rise in case numbers in Victoria, which I desperately hope will not happen, would not only play into the political environment in Victoria, but also in other presently COVID-free States, as they get closer to the date of lifting restrictions and opening borders.

  43. Josh Bornstein
    @JoshBBornstein
    ·
    2m
    I have it on good authority that the details of the deal between the Liberals & Nationals on net zero are contained in a blind trust

  44. We’ll see if the polls narrow like they did in 2019

    My recollection is that the LNP regularly pick up a half point to a point in a campaign. Keating would have bucked this in 94.

    But anything can happen in polling in the months before a campaign starts.

    As for pollsters adjusting post 2019….
    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-new-newspoll-and-2019-polling.html
    https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/07/29/newspoll-post-election-analysis/
    Anyone have more recent analysis from these two?

  45. The libs had a change of leader at this same stage of the election cycle, and won during the peak of the honeymoon period.

    Scomo then quickly changed the rules so a challenge to a sitting liberal PM is virtually impossible.

    Unlike 2019, the electorate have had 3 years to get to know, and judge, Scomo properly.

    Agree with this. Scott Morrison had no record to run on and so he could behave as an opposition leader like Tony Abbott. He could just scare the bejesus out of voters with Bill Shorten big policy agenda. But like Abbott found it’s much harder in government when you then have to run on your record.

    Morrison has though handled being PM better then Abbott in the sense. That you have to build yourself up rather then to continue to attack as an opposition leader. Abbott had no understanding or concept of this which is why he evaporated so quickly. Morrison has changed tack how successful he has been is another question.

    I still think its bullshit that the Liberals won the last federal election. Aided by Newcorp biased coverage.

    If Labor changes PM NEWSCORP: “We need to vote out this divided government”
    If Liberals changes PM NEWSCORP: ” Oh yes their divided, but Labor is still worse”

  46. max @ #81 Monday, October 25th, 2021 – 7:03 am

    I am still really dumbstruck that Sfm only has a netsat of – 4 and that 46% of the electorate gives him a favourable rating. Who are these people? Looked at from the other side, I’d think Sfm and co wouldn’t be too devastated by those approval numbers. Voting intention is the real deal though and these numbers would be starting to cause alarm I’d think.

    You have to take into account that Albo is not very popular even among Labor voters. To most he’s just another empty suit.

  48. Political Nightwatchman
    Mordor Media would report it as a ‘renewal’ , an unfortunate situation but it was required for the good of the country. Freeing up the government to deliver their ‘agenda’. Hurrah

  49. ”
    Sean Kelly writes, “Albanese says he’s in the final quarter, so when is he going to start kicking goals?”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/albanese-says-he-s-in-the-final-quarter-so-when-is-he-going-to-start-kicking-goals-20211023-p592j9.html
    ”

    Currently, LNP, instead of kicking up goals in their 50 m zone, they are passing the ball to ALP 50 m zone, where in the process of giving a rushed behind to ALP the ball is some how directed towards the ALP player who grazes the ball with their foot in front of goal. Hence, instead of conceding a behind LNP has conceded numerous goals in this fashion.
    So at end of 3rd quarter, ALP is up 4 goals to 1.
    The funny thing is ALP did not mark any ball in front of their goal post. It is always the ball grazing pass their left or right foot into the goal.

  50. Sky pushing the nuclear power option pretty hard atm. I wonder which company is going to put in the billions to compete with the gargantuan potential of renewables in 10 years.

    I suspect they want the Government to subsidize it and guarantee it’s power is bought into the market. Thereby making electricity in 10 years more expensive than it has to be.

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