Essential Research: leadership ratings, ICAC, emissions targets

An improvement in both leaders’ personal ratings from Essential Research, plus strong support for a federal ICAC and more ambitious emissions targets.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research survey includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find significant improvement in both leaders’ ratings. Scott Morrison is up four on approval to 54% and down three on disapproval to 37%, while Anthony Albanese is up four to 41% and down two to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 45-29, down from 47-26.

The poll also finds 78% would support a federal anti-corruption body, with only 11% opposed. Contrary to suggestions Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation would sap enthusiasm for the idea, 47% said it had made them more supportive, compared with 21% for less supportive.

Other questions focus on carbon emissions targets and climate change, including a finding that 68% support of a more ambitious target for 2030 and net zero by 2050, compared with 13% who did not favour targets and 19% who were unsure. Fifty-nine per cent agreed climate change was caused by human activity while 30% favoured the alternative of a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate, which in both cases is up three since June (Essential asks this question on a semi-regular basis), presumably reflecting a drop in an uncommitted response. Forty-two per cent said Australia was not doing enough (down three) compared with 31% for enough (up one) and 15% for too much (up three).

The Guardian’s report relates further results on climate change, and the poll presumably included the regular questions on federal and state government COVID-19 management. All will be laid out neatly in Essential Research’s report later today.

UPDATE: Full release here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,105 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, ICAC, emissions targets”

Comments Page 22 of 23
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  1. C@t
    I don’t mind if people consider it a hypothesis put forward for consideration :P.

    That said, if the reaction involves a lot of judgemental bullshit (not referring to you, C@t) then be prepared for lengthy exposition. If my critics can’t comment on anything of substance, they’ll find I’m occasionally a nice person who likes to help them along by providing lots of material (sorry Mavis) in which they can poke holes to their heart’s content :).

  3. Imagine if Labor had enthusiastic supporters on social media, who instead of bad-mouthing them every day, encouraged them to slay the Coalition dragons?

    Not going to happen here amongst this bunch of sorry sad sacks (not you Display Name), who just lay down in front of Crosby Textor, or Topham Guerin, or Isaac Levido, and say, ‘Do it to me one more time!’

  4. Influenza lineage extinction during the COVID-19 pandemic?

    The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has seen a notable global reduction in influenza cases of both influenza A and B viruses. In particular, the B/Yamagata lineage has not been isolated from April 2020 to August 2021, suggesting that this influenza lineage may have become extinct, which may provide opportunities for improving availability and effectiveness of influenza vaccines.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-021-00642-4

  9. poroti @ #1053 Wednesday, October 13th, 2021 – 9:59 pm

    So much Clive love in WA
    .
    .
    WA’s Attorney-General has threatened to confiscate the mining magnate’s jet — and send him back to Queensland by train — if the billionaire does not pay up for legal fees owed to the State.
    https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/clive-palmer/attorney-general-john-quigley-threatens-to-seize-clive-palmers-jet-over-legal-costs-owed-to-wa-ng-b882038157z

    Do it! Do it! Alert the TV news crews like the Coalition does to Labor!

  15. DisplayName:

    Can I ask you a very personal question, far from the madding crowd? I’ve been intrigued by “:P”. What does this mean, if you will?

  19. Mavis

    I’ve been intrigued by “:P”. What does this mean, if you will?

    Looked at sideways it’s a face with a tongue sticking out. Possibly the amount it sticks out is commensurate with my cheekiness.

  20. Sceptic @ #1068 Wednesday, October 13th, 2021 – 10:23 pm

    Eye watering…. 10 months!

    Melbourne Demons fans jailed over trip to WA for AFL grand final

    He sentenced the men to be immediately imprisoned for three months, with the remaining seven months of their 10-month sentences suspended.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/melbourne-demons-fans-plead-guilty-over-trip-to-wa-for-afl-grand-final-20211013-p58zm8.html

    I saw that on the news. I thought the men looked wealthy enough that a fine wouldn’t have bothered them. Jail time on the other hand. That will hurt.

  22. The Flu must really be cursing that Covid upstart who came along and spoiled the Flu’s softly-softly approach.

    Poliovirus, OTOH, is grateful for the distraction… We came so close to eliminating it in 2016. :-/

  23. “Eye watering…. 10 months!

    Melbourne Demons fans jailed over trip to WA for AFL grand final”

    Good, and apparently when they finish that they are going to have to answer charges in the NT. Cunning plan that has gone all BlackAdder on them. 🙂

  24. This comment by a neighbour of theirs was telling:

    Wes Mantooth
    6 HOURS AGO

    (Hayden) Burbank was in South Yarra on the Saturday following Melbourne’s preliminary final win. So he was definitely subject to the stay at home order at that time, within a fortnight of attending the Grand Final. He drove past me in Darling Street, South Yarra, on that particular Saturday afternoon.

    Furthermore, Burbank routinely breached restrictions throughout last year. Police attended his residence twice after illegal gatherings were hosted by him at his South Yarra residence.

    Having witnessed his entitled behaviour for approximately five years as a neighbour, it did not come as any surprise to see him behave in the entirely self-centered manner that has resulted in him pleading guilty to these charges.

  25. DisplayName:

    Wednesday, October 13, 2021 at 10:24 pm

    [‘Possibly the amount it sticks out is commensurate with my cheekiness.’]

    Thanks. I think I’ve got it – we all have our idiosyncrasies. And it’s goodnight from him save for:

    Vaccine rollout

    NSW

    76.5% fully vaccinated; 91.1% first dose

    National

    64.4% fully vaccinated; 83.3% first dose

    Of the estimated population aged 16 and over

    – SMH

  26. Australia has some truly evil individuals within its borders:

    News Corp’s Melbourne tabloid the Herald Sun has run an advertisement describing climate change as a “furphy” on the third day of a company-wide editorial series that explores the benefits of a carbon-neutral economy.

    The advertisement was paid for by The Climate Study Group, which is led by two former directors of the Institute of Public Affairs, Tom Quirk and Bob Officer. Mr Quirk was previously director of the Australian Environment Foundation, the IPA-founded think tank chaired by Tom Bostock which features climate sceptic Peter Ridd among its ranks.

    The half-page advertisement, which appeared in Wednesday’s newspaper edition on page 19, attempts to disprove research and climate predictions that have been made in decades prior.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/news-corp-s-herald-sun-runs-climate-change-furphy-ad-on-third-day-of-net-zero-campaign-20211013-p58zm9.html

  27. Do it! Do it! Alert the TV news crews like the Coalition does to Labor!

    It’s been done before; he’ll just get another one.

    Liquidators holding Palmer jet hostage (2016)

    Liquidators for Queensland Nickel are refusing to hand over Clive Palmer’s private jet unless he pays back the money the company spent on it.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/liquidators-holding-palmer-jet-hostage

    I’m not sure if the two Mineralogy MD-82 jets are still rotting at Brisbane airport; they had clocked up over $100k in parking fees in 2019, and hadn’t flown in ten years?

  28. Including the nose makes it easier to identify emoticons, especially with non-monospace fonts.

    Early emoticons were the precursors to modern emojis, which are ever-developing predominantly on iOS and Android devices. The first ASCII emoticons, :-) and :-(, were written by Scott Fahlman in 1982, but emoticons actually originated on the PLATO IV computer system in 1972.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoticons

    This is a handy reference:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_emoticons

  30. Sitting governments have the advantage come elections because they can “pork barrel” in promotion of sitting MP’s, something an Opposition cannot do because they do not control the Treasury purse

    Further, the very title of prime minister and Minister carry an authority opposition MP’s do not carry (look at preferred pm polling – because the other person is not the pm)

    If you are in office you can do things – and set the agenda

    Such as yet further tax cuts

    Then, in regard the LNP, there is the Australian media and its bias, media being the business cohort the LNP represents

    Hence the old story, governments lose elections, oppositions do not win elections

    That said, a danger to government is the “its time” factor – so they have been in office for a period of time which introduces “stale” to the conversation

    The government only has to hold onto the seats it holds – and they will throw every resource at those seats

    Where does “stale” intersect and put (some) seats at risk?

    Are the mistakes of this government enough to have the “stale” label applied to them – costing them enough seats to lose government?

    So will the management of the pandemic from the economic support package to the vaccine roll out impact – and if it does impact those opinions are already entrenched I would suggest (so polling at 53/47 at worst will maintain until Election Day)

    The word being “entrenched”

    And will “Freedom Day” and the Federal Government promoting the opening of the economy offset any entrenched opinions?

    Where does the health issue intersect with the economic issue?

    Which is the more important among voters (noting the age demographic of the electorate continually changes because old people die replaced by younger people)?

    What part does religion play – because it is important with the growth in Bible Groups?

    I am led to the words of Morrison, that they need to win seats in NSW to offset losses elsewhere including in Queensland which is at a high water mark for the Coalition (Labor holds how many seats there compared to – noting Palmer, Hanson and Katter, so the Regions are different)?

    Noting also this government has a razor thin margin in the Lower House (and where will the Independents holding former Liberal seats put their support given the LNP are in minority? Because there may be even more Independents)

    Labor has to hold its seats – including in NSW

    So sitting members have to be very, very active in the communities they represent, out and about every day from today, putting stuff in letter boxes for recognition purposes and more

    Then Labor need credible polling such that their on the ground campaign can target LNP seats at most risk The number of seats should narrowly exceed the number needing to be won to change the government (so don’t go after everything. Marshall your resources for maximum effect)

    So Queensland – if there are 3 or 4 seats their polling identifies – and it really has to

    NSW – hold

    Victoria – target 1

    Tasmania – hold

    SA – hold

    ACT – hold

    NT – hold

    WA – target 2 (surely Porter has to be at risk, for starters?)

    That would give 6/7 seats

    Making Labor the major party on the floor of the House and an argument for the Independents to support them if required

    Plus hope “stale” and the impact of mistakes features

    So pump the Grattan Institute and their word “botched” in regard the vaccine roll out

    A hell of a lot will fall to Albanese including because of the promotional persona of Morrison and his sheer babbling – so Hewson and a marketeer out of his depth is important in terms of entrenching that view in the minds of enough

    Target

    Focus

    And have a couple of very proficient head kickers very active and very focused – so pound “botched” and “marketeer”

    This government, under 3 leaders, would have been there for 3 terms, so also hit “stale”

    Hawke and Keating lasted 11 years

    Howard lasted 11 years

    Can this government be got before it gets to 11 years?

    Flat wages growth has endured for 8 years – so quote the RBA Governor because this issue may be a sleeper

    State that it is not the position of the RBA to generate (any) economic performance – and that the Cash Rate is where it is at because of the failure of government in promoting economic activity – and it has been at accomodating settings since the GFC

    Confused?

    So am I

    So KISS

  31. A new one arrived today. Heard before, but came down for a drink.

    Olive backed Oriole. Also a pair of white headed pigeons. Handsome birds

    Very nice, Yabba!

  33. Pakman (not the video game) makes some good points in this short video. It’s about the importance of branding a political idea, and turning it into a message. An example he used was the term “pro-virus” as a label for the anti-vax crowd. His main point was that it’s not enough to have a good idea, you need to brand it well too.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aANKR1Tdxc

    And for anyone who watched tonight’s Gruen report, Dee Madigan made the complementary (‘e’ not ‘i’) point that all purchases are based on emotion, and had me thinking of Morrison’s negatives again. There’s lots of material to work with.

  35. Have been REALLY enjoying watching the Holy Koolaid YouTube channel.

    A recovering Happy Clapper himself, he enjoys debunking everything from claims they’ve unearthed Sodom and Gomorrah, to speaking in tongues, to The Rapture, to televangelist “prophets” (better spelt “p.r.o.f.i.t.s”), to whether Jesus actually lived, to the Exodus, to psychic charlatans. And much, much more.

    Lovely stuff.

  36. Thanks Bushfire Bill.

    Holy Koolaid should be on the curriculum.

    Just started watching and am amazed how well he explains his points.

    Going to share this big time.

    May even have the tablet on hand to show to the doorknockers before they get their spiel in.

    Some of the god botherers here should have a peek.

    Would be uncomfortable viewing for them.

  37. Bushfire Bill @ #1086 Wednesday, October 13th, 2021 – 10:36 pm

    Have been REALLY enjoying watching the Holy Koolaid YouTube channel.

    A recovering Happy Flapper himself, he enjoys debunking everything from claims they’ve unearthed Sodom and Gomorrah, to speak g in tongues, to The Rapture, to televangelist “prophets” (better spelt “p.r.o.f.i.t.s”), to whether Jesus actually lived, to the Exodus, to psychic charlatans.

    Lovely stuff.

    Thanks for that. I’ve started watching a few. He’s a passionate guy. He’s still recovering. A brave soul to open himself up like he has. “Who is Thomas Westbrook?”, “Inside the mind of an evangelical”

  38. “ If the Nationals are now a party for the poor, I guess at the cabinet meeting today they’ll trade their support for a climate change policy in return for an increase in welfare benefits, more affordable housing and putting shingles medication back on the PBS for the over-70s.”
    – Shaun Micallef

  39. Late Riser @ #1088 Wednesday, October 13th, 2021 – 11:12 pm

    Bushfire Bill @ #1086 Wednesday, October 13th, 2021 – 10:36 pm

    Have been REALLY enjoying watching the Holy Koolaid YouTube channel.

    A recovering Happy Flapper himself, he enjoys debunking everything from claims they’ve unearthed Sodom and Gomorrah, to speak g in tongues, to The Rapture, to televangelist “prophets” (better spelt “p.r.o.f.i.t.s”), to whether Jesus actually lived, to the Exodus, to psychic charlatans.

    Lovely stuff.

    Thanks for that. I’ve started watching a few. He’s a passionate guy. He’s still recovering. A brave soul to open himself up like he has. “Who is Thomas Westbrook?”, “Inside the mind of an evangelical”

    And is it too cheeky to say that he looks a bit like a Hollywood Jesus…

  40. Andrew’s and Albo – look at all the action they’ve taken in the Vic ALP but couldn’t possibly comment or take action now against Byrne?

    WTF?

  43. Steelydan says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 2:07 am

    The ABC has been hijacked.

    It was nsw former premier who suggested that we should live with covid and along with liberals

  44. Observer @ #1080 Wednesday, October 13th, 2021 – 11:01 pm

    Sitting governments have the advantage come elections because they can “pork barrel” in promotion of sitting MP’s, something an Opposition cannot do because they do not control the Treasury purse

    Further, the very title of prime minister and Minister carry an authority opposition MP’s do not carry (look at preferred pm polling – because the other person is not the pm)

    If you are in office you can do things – and set the agenda

    Such as yet further tax cuts

    Then, in regard the LNP, there is the Australian media and its bias, media being the business cohort the LNP represents

    Hence the old story, governments lose elections, oppositions do not win elections

    That said, a danger to government is the “its time” factor – so they have been in office for a period of time which introduces “stale” to the conversation

    The government only has to hold onto the seats it holds – and they will throw every resource at those seats

    Where does “stale” intersect and put (some) seats at risk?

    Are the mistakes of this government enough to have the “stale” label applied to them – costing them enough seats to lose government?

    So will the management of the pandemic from the economic support package to the vaccine roll out impact – and if it does impact those opinions are already entrenched I would suggest (so polling at 53/47 at worst will maintain until Election Day)

    The word being “entrenched”

    And will “Freedom Day” and the Federal Government promoting the opening of the economy offset any entrenched opinions?

    Where does the health issue intersect with the economic issue?

    Which is the more important among voters (noting the age demographic of the electorate continually changes because old people die replaced by younger people)?

    What part does religion play – because it is important with the growth in Bible Groups?

    I am led to the words of Morrison, that they need to win seats in NSW to offset losses elsewhere including in Queensland which is at a high water mark for the Coalition (Labor holds how many seats there compared to – noting Palmer, Hanson and Katter, so the Regions are different)?

    Noting also this government has a razor thin margin in the Lower House (and where will the Independents holding former Liberal seats put their support given the LNP are in minority? Because there may be even more Independents)

    Labor has to hold its seats – including in NSW

    So sitting members have to be very, very active in the communities they represent, out and about every day from today, putting stuff in letter boxes for recognition purposes and more

    Then Labor need credible polling such that their on the ground campaign can target LNP seats at most risk The number of seats should narrowly exceed the number needing to be won to change the government (so don’t go after everything. Marshall your resources for maximum effect)

    So Queensland – if there are 3 or 4 seats their polling identifies – and it really has to

    NSW – hold

    Victoria – target 1

    Tasmania – hold

    SA – hold

    ACT – hold

    NT – hold

    WA – target 2 (surely Porter has to be at risk, for starters?)

    That would give 6/7 seats

    Making Labor the major party on the floor of the House and an argument for the Independents to support them if required

    Plus hope “stale” and the impact of mistakes features

    So pump the Grattan Institute and their word “botched” in regard the vaccine roll out

    A hell of a lot will fall to Albanese including because of the promotional persona of Morrison and his sheer babbling – so Hewson and a marketeer out of his depth is important in terms of entrenching that view in the minds of enough

    Target

    Focus

    And have a couple of very proficient head kickers very active and very focused – so pound “botched” and “marketeer”

    This government, under 3 leaders, would have been there for 3 terms, so also hit “stale”

    Hawke and Keating lasted 11 years

    Howard lasted 11 years

    Can this government be got before it gets to 11 years?

    Flat wages growth has endured for 8 years – so quote the RBA Governor because this issue may be a sleeper

    State that it is not the position of the RBA to generate (any) economic performance – and that the Cash Rate is where it is at because of the failure of government in promoting economic activity – and it has been at accomodating settings since the GFC

    Confused?

    So am I

    So KISS

    Hawke / Keating was 13 years.

  46. Observer@11.01 “Hawke and Keating lasted 11 years”
    —————
    13 years actually, and from my recollection in that unusual historical bubble there was a vibe for a while of the ALP being the default party of federal government and the LNP being in perpetual opposition. There were a couple of close elections and 93, the sweetest victory of all, was a surprise in a good way – the mirror image of 2019, being a surprise in a bad way.

    The policy priorities of progressive political parties both here and in the US generally rate as highly popular. Mass communications of those policies clearly and credibly seems to be the challenge. Also overcoming the sense that conservatives are naturally better and more trustworthy financial managers – a trope that seems difficult to dislodge, despite the absence of supporting evidence.

  48. mundo says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 6:43 am

    Labor and the Greens are fast becoming irrelevant down here under this Gutwein fellow.
    ——————–

    What mundo doesnt realise federally lib/nats are against Climate change

    So the lib/nats states making Labor very relevant and even vindicating the greens

  49. what mundo should be saying

    The Tasmanian state government is making the federal Lib/nats irrelevant , and if you want action on climate change do not vote federal Lib/nats

  50. https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/demands-for-premier-to-face-ibac-grilling-don-t-stack-up-20211013-p58zoa.html
    —————
    Nick McKenzie gives a good explanation of why calls for Andrews to front IBAC at this stage are not valid and that the parallel with Gladys being pushed by the right wing media and the Vic Libs is baseless. I guess in a way it’s stating the obvious: there is no evidence, at least at this stage, linking Andrews to the misappropriation of public funds alleged against Somyurek and other Vic ALP warlords – though Andrews and his government may ultimately be destroyed as a result.

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