Heart of the nation

Clive Palmer set to try again, plus stuff you’d probably already figured about election timing and the mood of voters in Melbourne.

Three items to get the ball rolling on a new week, all of which happen to be from The Australian:

• The paper reported on Friday that yet another election campaign looks set to be blighted by a Clive Palmer advertising blitz. However, whereas his efforts before the 2019 federal election were directed entirely at Labor, this time Palmer also hopes to settle scores with Peter Dutton in the campaign for his seat of Dickson, after Dutton last week spearheaded a purge of Palmer allies at the top level of the Liberal National Party organisation.

• Plans for a November federal election have been “shelved to get the government’s vaccine rollout back on track”, with the government now “actively considering whether to repeat the 2019 strategy and hold an April budget in the run-up to an electoral showdown with Labor”.

• Also today, focus group research of voters in outer Melbourne by Redbridge has detected a “perceived bias towards NSW” on the part of the Morrison government, together with “a rejuvenation of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ standing”. Redbridge has also detected “voter hesitancy about the Prime Minister” in western Sydney.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,207 comments on “Heart of the nation”

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  5. Here’s a real world example that may be meaningful in the debate:

    There were people in Campsie prepared to pay ~$300 to a doctor to get a vaccination.

    So why won’t paying the $300 to people get them to get vaccinated?

  6. Just catching up on the days proceedings.
    I know this discussion about parallel parking was quite a while ago but do you want a challenge? Try backing a semi onto a loading zone with cars left by fekwits right on the edges without hitting anything. It can be done but you sprout a lot of grey hairs during the exercise.

    As for Albo’s $300 for people fully vaccinated persons I personally lean to the Israeli idea. If you haven’t had a vaccine you have to undergo and pass a covid test which YOU pay for before you can enter anywhere. Football game, movie, pub, restaurant etc etc . Of course that would mean some sort of vaccination “passport” but I have no problem with that.

    My reasoning is as I think Macron said and to paraphrase “why should the majority suffer because of the minority?”
    If a minority of brain dead anti vaxxers don’t want to get the vaccine, fine, but why the fek should I and the rest of us that have done the right thing have to go into lock down when one of these loons end up with covid?

  7. Shellbell @ Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 6:32 pm

    Interesting. Not easy to find on YouTube. Nor impressions of Arafat or Khan from memory.

  8. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 6:23 pm
    It’s telling when Liberals resort to old tropes about rich people maybe getting something from a Labor initiative. When, at one and the same time during the reign of the Coalition, rich people have benefited more than any other economic demographic. They’ve made off like bandits with money from the treasury.
    ”

    This is what I was referring to when Tories call leftists elitists and people bought it earlier whether it is true or not. You are seeing gaslighting by Larse without an iota of shame. Larse knows it worked earlier and that is why Larse is sent again by LNP to do it again.

    I sometimes wonder why ALP be as shameless as LNP. 🙂

  9. Ven @ #1038 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 6:50 pm

    ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 6:23 pm
    It’s telling when Liberals resort to old tropes about rich people maybe getting something from a Labor initiative. When, at one and the same time during the reign of the Coalition, rich people have benefited more than any other economic demographic. They’ve made off like bandits with money from the treasury.
    ”

    This is what I was referring to when Tories call leftists elitists and people bought it earlier whether it is true or not. You are seeing gaslighting by Larse without an iota of shame. Larse knows it worked earlier and that is why Larse is sent again by LNP to do it again.

    And people STILL keep biting on the hook he has baited. 🙄

  10. Recon
    “That is a good point though. It’s important to get all Labor members vaccinated.”

    Oh I get it! Labor members are drug addicts, alcoholics, homeless, or have serious mental illness. Yeah, that’s pretty funny.

    It must be difficult maintaining this standard of hilarity. I bet you’re the funniest person you know.

  14. Kakuru @ #1040 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 6:51 pm

    Recon
    “That is a good point though. It’s important to get all Labor members vaccinated.”

    Oh I get it! Labor members are drug addicts, alcoholics, homeless, or have serious mental illness. Yeah, that’s pretty funny.

    It must be difficult maintaining this standard of hilarity. I bet you’re the funniest person you know.

    Did you expect anything less from a heartless miscreant whose only concern is how much money his share in a night club is losing?

    Like I keep saying, a Greens voter my arse. No political party is more concerned about the downtrodden in society than The Greens. Well, maybe Labor could duke it out with them to see who comes out on top. 🙂

    Nah, nath Michael Recon characterising themselves as a Green is just another sock puppet. Despite protestations to the contrary. Talk is cheap and those sort of lies come easily to practiced liars.

  15. Elitist and celebrities:
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/byron-baes-stars-linked-to-covid-time-party-20210803-p58fit.html

    Byron Bay and Tweed Police officers have confirmed they are investigating reports of an alleged breach of public health orders over a party held at a Byron Bay home believed to be occupied by cast member Nathan Favro on July 24. Neighbours and community members in the area made a number of reports to Crime Stoppers on the evening after hearing noise and apparently seeing more than five people enter the home despite statewide COVID-19 restrictions in place which cap visitors to a household at just five people.

    ————
    Time to name and shame

  16. Bert

    I have often watched a semi back from a suburban street down a slope into the narrow mouth of Woolies unloading area. Bloody marvellous!

  18. Kevin Bonham @ #1091 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 6:36 pm

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/08/the-2022-pendulum-only-slightly-favours.html

    The 2022 Pendulum Only Slightly Favours The Coalition

    My assessment of the lie of the land for given 2022 2PP results based on Antony Green’s pendulum estimates released yesterday. There were slight differences between Antony’s earlier estimates and William’s and also Ben Raue’s but I would expect a similar overall picture for all other final seat margin estimates.

    Thank you Kevin. Very clear and informative

  20. Kakuru says:
    Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 6:51 pm

    Recon
    “That is a good point though. It’s important to get all Labor members vaccinated.”

    Oh I get it! Labor members are drug addicts, alcoholics, homeless, or have serious mental illness. Yeah, that’s pretty funny.

    It must be difficult maintaining this standard of hilarity. I bet you’re the funniest person you know.
    _____________
    I don’t know where Somyurek got his 1700 Victorian ALP members or where other stacks are derived from. I think that you could say that quite a few members of all political parties demonstrate some form of mental illness.

    I remember talking once to an advisor to Rob Hulls years ago. He was bemoaning the quality of Labor student politicians and how many of them are quite ‘twisted’, in his words.

  22. ”
    Lars Von Triersays:
    Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 6:52 pm
    So Ven straightforward question- if it worked earlier (for the Liberals) – why would Labor do it again?
    ”
    I don’t know I am not a mind reader. Maybe Albanese thought it is a good idea because someone like New York Mayor De Blasio ( a democrat) is doing it now

  23. ajm @ #1051 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 7:05 pm

    Player One @ #1104 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 6:48 pm

    ajm @ #1098 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 6:43 pm

    Geez you’re sick

    Hmmm. Now, let me see … which of us is sicker? The one who criticizes all my posts although she simultaneously claims loudly and often to never actually read them? Or the one who doesn’t take such a ridiculous poster seriously?

    Tough call, I guess.

    The one who specialises in snide insults.

    And that would also be the one who’s so vain as to think that I actually read their posts. And don’t have them Blocked. Whereas the truth is that I only catch up with some of them by accident when others requote them.

    Honestly, after the bollocking I witnessed Player One copping the other night from a LOT of other people, you’d think they’d be embarrassed to show their head around here again. Let alone continue to try and lord it over us with their snide comments and misinformed arguments. Oh well, some people are just desperate for attention I guess. 🙂

  25. C@tmomma @ #1123 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 7:11 pm

    And that would also be the one who’s so vain as to think that I actually read their posts. And don’t have them Blocked. Whereas the truth is that I only catch up with some of them by accident when others requote them.

    Honestly, after the bollocking I witnessed Player One copping the other night from a LOT of other people, you’d think they’d be embarrassed to show their head around here again. Let alone continue to try and lord it over us with their snide comments and misinformed arguments. Oh well, some people are just desperate for attention I guess. 🙂

    Feeling left out again, C@t? Overdue for your nap, perhaps?

  29. I think the $300 is a good idea, it will provide the economy a bit of a boost which it is going to need after NSW has been locked down for months.

    It’s quite amazing the Liberal shills are worried that the scheme’s cost would rise by $300 because Gina Rinehart would be eligible.

  33. Recon, because I have made it crystal clear to you that your presence on this site is conditional upon you not indulging in provocations like this — aggravated in this case by your pompous declarations of how you are not going to engage with the very commenter you directed it at — and because you are plainly not mature enough to restrain yourself, I am going to kick you off the blog each time you infringe, including this time, for long enough to make it hurt.

  35. Lars Von Trier @ #1061 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 6:12 pm

    So i want to encourage povo people to get vaccinated – so I need to give 25 million (irrespective of income/wealth) $300.00 tax free each! How exactly does that work?

    It works because a vaccinated wealthy/high-income individual provides exactly as much social benefit as a vaccinated anybody else. They’re making the same contribution, so they get the same reward.

    And also, who cares? It’s $300 ffs! Cancel a couple of those French submarines if it’s really that much of a worry. Much more value in having as many vaccinated as possible. If $300 will get a rich holdout into a vaccination center, it’s easily worth it.

  38. C@tmomma @ #1103 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 6:48 pm

    Here’s a real world example that may be meaningful in the debate:

    There were people in Campsie prepared to pay ~$300 to a doctor to get a vaccination.

    So why won’t paying the $300 to people get them to get vaccinated?

    Actually, doesn’t people willing to pay $300 for something that’s supposed to be free imply that the real problem is scarcity (of Pfizer, probably)?

  39. Apparently it’s ok to offer booze for vaccinations…

    SYDNEY, July 9 (Reuters) – Australia’s drug regulator on Friday tweaked its regulations to permit an offer of alcohol for those inoculated against COVID-19 after earlier barring a pub from doing so and prompting the country’s prime minister to step in.

    Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the initiative by Melbourne’s Prince Alfred Hotel to offer complimentary alcohol to COVID-19 vaccinated patrons was a “good hearted” initiative and in the national interest.

    He described the Therapeutic Drugs Administration’s (TGA) disapproval as “heavy-handed” during a televised news briefing. The TGA had disapproved of the plan as rules bar the use of alcohol or tobacco as incentives to receive medicines.

    “This is a national interest vaccine programme,” Morrison said. “We’ll be making some changes to ensure that these good-hearted, good-natured sort of initiatives that people may take on of their own volition.”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-pm-cheers-melbourne-pubs-beers-for-vaccine-offer-2021-07-09/

  40. Lars seems to be under the misapprehension that once the country is vaccinated he, sQomo, gets an A+ for the pandemic. Wrong!! Wrong!!

    There is so much material, so many backflips, so many screwups that the Opposition can use in an election campaign.

    And why this continual crap 30k would have died. It was only because of the State Premiers otherwise it would have happened if sQomo had his way.

  41. ar,

    Agree that scarcity is the issue atm.

    But once you past that and the early adopters are all vaccinated there is still the recalcitrants.

    Voters always respond to cash.

    Maybe make it you can’t vote unless you are vaccinated.

  42. ajmsays:
    Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 7:05 pm

    The one who specialises in snide insults.

    Seriously?
    Wouldn’t that knock out many of the prolific daily commenters on PB, seems like a big field

    The number of inane and facile, usually entirely partisan political comments from the most prolific going back years really sets the bar pretty low. It is also a reason for just not engaging, just laughing or ignoring as you scroll on by.

  43. Regarding Doherty Institute modelling at 70% (real 56%) of the Eligible Population fully vaccinated:

    First 180 days in Australia –
    Fully Vaccinated: 56% Real Population (or) 70% of Eligible Population
    Symptomatic Infections: 390,362 to 617,292 (1:65 to 1:41)
    Deaths: 1,908 to 3,564
    Deaths per day (average): 10.6 to 19.8 per day

    UK at Present –
    Fully Vaccinated: 57% fully vaccinated plus 12% partial vaccinated*
    (equivalent to Australia’s 70% of Eligible Population)
    Deaths per day (average): ~75.0 per day**

    *The UK has high % of population with immunity obtained from viral infection over the past 18 months, Australia does not.
    **Summer Time in the UK

    It seems the Federal Government is quite content with its very optimistic view that ‘only’ 10 to 20 Australians will die from Covid each day (UK data suggests it would be >25 per day) at their target of 56% fully vaccinated. I do wonder though, if the States (except NSW) will be as comfortable as the PM is with their ICU’s filling up.

  47. SamraTW

    It’s my understanding that other measures (such as targeted lockdowns) will be used alongside vaccination to help lower the number of covid-related deaths.

  48. Kakuru

    That is what is being ‘said’. But say for example, NSW lets the virus run and WA and SA do not, how will people from NSW enter these states? If NSW has 250,000 cases in 180 days how will that be controlled by targeted lockdowns and other measures?

  49. Labor also caving on serious climate action or any pressure on Angus along with the caving on tax and negative gearing for the housing crisis?

    Labor softens stance on Taylor’s changes to ARENA regulations
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/labor-softens-stance-on-taylors-changes-to-arena-regulations/

    Labor must really be banking on COVID still being a huge problem for Smoko and by extension Australia by the time any election rolls around, because it seems everyone will be very hard pressed to distinguish Labor from LNP on any policy of significance or importance to the good of the people, country or planet.
    Seems that is something some are actively aiming at.

    FWIW I think most just want any more COVID shit gone one way or another, here and around the world. It’s remarkable what many people have done to deal with it, and continue to do to try and deal with it. Yes they’ve fucked up quarantine and vaccines but for F’ks sake, saying it a million more times doesn’t help or change it either. Seriously how many times do some people have to say the same shit over and over again, who are they trying to convince on PB? Seems incredibly infantile to me that the same tedious thing is repeated ad nauseum day after day by the same few posters so often.

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