Heart of the nation

Clive Palmer set to try again, plus stuff you’d probably already figured about election timing and the mood of voters in Melbourne.

Three items to get the ball rolling on a new week, all of which happen to be from The Australian:

• The paper reported on Friday that yet another election campaign looks set to be blighted by a Clive Palmer advertising blitz. However, whereas his efforts before the 2019 federal election were directed entirely at Labor, this time Palmer also hopes to settle scores with Peter Dutton in the campaign for his seat of Dickson, after Dutton last week spearheaded a purge of Palmer allies at the top level of the Liberal National Party organisation.

Plans for a November federal election have been “shelved to get the government’s vaccine rollout back on track”, with the government now “actively considering whether to repeat the 2019 strategy and hold an April budget in the run-up to an electoral showdown with Labor”.

• Also today, focus group research of voters in outer Melbourne by Redbridge has detected a “perceived bias towards NSW” on the part of the Morrison government, together with “a rejuvenation of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ standing”. Redbridge has also detected “voter hesitancy about the Prime Minister” in western Sydney.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,207 comments on “Heart of the nation”

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  1. Assantdj @ #948 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 4:54 pm

    C@tmomma
    I was thinking more along the lines that some proprietors may not accept an exempted person even if they could show an exemption.

    Then it would be covered by Anti Discrimination legislation. About which I could confidently predict that no business owner would like to be put out of business as a result of having to pay damages to a person who had been discriminated against.

  2. LVT
    “Lol Kakuru – even the dodgy Guardian tracker – says we are now 36th.”

    Yowzer! 36th! Which two nations did we leave in the dust?

  3. Crack jab unit at heart of PM’s battle plan

    A lightning response team tasked with boosting jab capacity

    Because it is Scotty I see ………….

  4. The P1 argument that if we pay $300 this time we will have to pay $300 for every pandemic is just about as silly as arguments get.

    Just another Player One argument against a Labor initiative, for argument’s sake.

  5. Windhover says:
    Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 6:04 pm
    LVT, apparently Frank Lowy needs franking credits. Why not $300 bucks?
    _______________________
    Indeed – they couldn’t crack down on super funds claiming millions in credits – so why not splash the cash all round?

  6. Lars

    Referring to Howard isn’t really that good an idea when it comes to handouts – he sent out $700 to everyone on a pension (except the disabled, because….)

  7. Lars Von Triersays:
    Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 6:06 pm
    Windhover says:
    Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 6:04 pm
    LVT, apparently Frank Lowy needs franking credits. Why not $300 bucks?
    _______________________
    Indeed – they couldn’t crack down on super funds claiming millions in credits – so why not splash the cash all round?
    ………………………………………………..
    The cash splash? $300 bucks a head?

    Wouldn’t pay for the peanuts bought by the franking credit guzzlers.
    (I am not sure who you are referring to as “they”. Those in power have no will. Those not, no way.)

  8. Okay nice people on the blog, let me just lay out a scenario for you.

    Who do you think we would be having the most trouble getting jabbed, bar the looney anti vaxxers?

    Maybe it’s the people in our society who are marginalised, for example, drug addicts, alcoholics, the homeless or those with serious mental illness, many overlapping one with the other. Also consider who is more likely than not to not follow Public Health guidelines, not socially distance, not use hand sanitiser or QR Codes and so to be the sort of people that continue to spread the virus around?

    Now think, what would motivate them to turn up and get vaccinated?

    Money.

    Bingo!

  9. Imagine being so far ahead around the velodrome, your fastest rider goes up the proverbial of of the other team’s slowest rider.

  10. So i want to encourage povo people to get vaccinated – so I need to give 25 million (irrespective of income/wealth) $300.00 tax free each! How exactly does that work?

    The BRW rich list salutes you cot momma!

  11. I have a good laugh when Liberals speak of economic credibility these days. Especially when it comes to spending, as dear Scotty and Josh have spent a cool $25 billion on handouts to corporations who didn’t need it.

  12. And people are talking about what Albo wants to talk about … it seems to have been a remarkably successful stunt from the ALP. Even ole’ Edwina feels compelled to put out post after post on the (never-going-to-happen) “plan”.

  13. Lars V T
    You are a LOL. So concerned about ‘rich people’ getting an ‘unfair’ share. Your sincerity rating on that issue would match the score Pamela Wade got for a dive today.

  14. 14 years on, with an eye watering $1 Trillion+ of debt, and Liberals still use attacks relevant to the Howard era. 8 Years of LNP and we are breaking new records for spending, yet their mindset is stuck in the past… so sad

  15. Vic and Nsw are virtually vaccinated at same rate.

    dbRaevn
    @dbRaevn
    ·
    3h
    SyringeAustralian COVID-19 response roadmap
    As of 2nd August 2021
    #COVID19Aus

    1️⃣41.40% at least 1 dose
    Up-pointing red triangle0.45% since yesterday (14-day avg: 0.41%)
    Up-pointing red triangle5.70% since 14 days ago

    2️⃣19.70% fully vaccinated
    Up-pointing red triangle0.47% since yesterday

    https://mobile.twitter.com/dbRaevn/status/1422413723747045376

  16. It’s telling when Liberals resort to old tropes about rich people maybe getting something from a Labor initiative. When, at one and the same time during the reign of the Coalition, rich people have benefited more than any other economic demographic. They’ve made off like bandits with money from the treasury.

  17. LVT, Gina wouldn’t even know she had an extra $300. So it would be gifting her nothing. Or, maybe, she could write out a charity check for $25,300 to her favorite ag minister and just keep it in circulation. So who cares?

    Perhaps you should try the $300 to dead people meme.

  18. Sounds EXCITING!

    But aren’t NSW and other states doing this already?

    Crack jab unit at heart of PM’s battle plan

    A lightning response team tasked with boosting vaccination capacity in Covid-19 outbreak areas is central to raising jab rates by the end of the year.

    18 MINUTES AGO By TOM DUSEVIC, OLIVIA CAISLEY, ELLIE DUDLEY, MAX MADDISON
    (Murdoch’s Oz)

  19. Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 6:27 pm
    C@tmomma @ #1055 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 6:05 pm

    Just another Player One argument against a Labor initiative, for argument’s sake.

    Feeling left out again, C@t? Roof too hot for you again today?
    …………………..
    If that is your best response . . .

  20. Horrors!

    Intro to The Drum said that one subject to be discussed is how Morrison carries out his responsibilities to Australia and to his religion. So Sheridan there tonight. (Not sure that responsibilities was the word used)

  21. Windhover @ #1013 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 6:30 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 6:27 pm
    C@tmomma @ #1055 Tuesday, August 3rd, 2021 – 6:05 pm

    Just another Player One argument against a Labor initiative, for argument’s sake.

    Feeling left out again, C@t? Roof too hot for you again today?
    …………………..
    If that is your best response . . .

    She knows I have her inane comments blocked too, so it’s doubly banal and simply playing to the cheap seats who read her guff.

  22. The problem with the vaccination roll out is that there seems to be a limit to those willing to take the jab as a proportion of the population. So, while there is a good take up at the minute, the experience in other jurisdictions is there is a tapering as the hard core non Vaxxers resist all entreaties to innoculate.

    So, a cash incentive may be just the remedy to encourage the recalcitrants.

  23. Let’s see where the recalcitrance lies then the money can be paid appropriately between those with cause and throw backs..

  24. The key point is that a vaccinated individual protects those around them, and an unvaccinated individual puts those around them (including the vaccinated) at risk. So we really want to reach the threshold for herd immunity, or the virus keeps circulating, keeping everyone exposed.

    The argument is that the economic benefit of getting to that threshold far outweighs the money spent on vaccinations even if a few hundred dollars is thrown in with each vaccination. Meaning if spending that money overcomes vaccine hesistancy and pushes us above the threshold, then the government’s financial position going forward will be improved compared to not spending it, through higher revenue than otherwise, and by more than what they spent.

    Of course, we can’t run a copy of our society in parallel to check whether that turns out to be true :P.

  25. https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/08/the-2022-pendulum-only-slightly-favours.html

    The 2022 Pendulum Only Slightly Favours The Coalition

    My assessment of the lie of the land for given 2022 2PP results based on Antony Green’s pendulum estimates released yesterday. There were slight differences between Antony’s earlier estimates and William’s and also Ben Raue’s but I would expect a similar overall picture for all other final seat margin estimates.

  26. With countries all over the world offering incentives big and small, Morrison and that filthy temper of his just removed that option for himself. Well done bozo.

  27. Player One,

    If you need help in spotting the four problems, I have provided the specific quotes:

    “You can’t reward laggards or refuseniks”
    “..something useful to everyone, like an education campaign”
    “..it needs to be offered to everyone who has already been vaccinated, so as not to promote vaccine hesitancy”

    And the first problem of course;

    Mavis: “..who could credibly argue against it?”
    Player One: “Me.”

    If you need to revisit what Albanese actually is proposing, see here: https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1422317485458550800

  28. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 6:10 pm

    Maybe it’s the people in our society who are marginalised, for example, drug addicts, alcoholics, the homeless or those with serious mental illness, many overlapping one with the other.
    __________
    That is a good point though. It’s important to get all Labor members vaccinated.


  29. Assantdjsays:
    Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 5:03 pm
    Can anyone help me with this query. Is it true that some immigrants are not eligible for Medicare and if so could this explain why some families are not going to hospital in Sydney when gravely ill.
    I know that when we supported a nurse on a skilled visa one of our obligations was to ensure they had a special health insurance to cover for the lack of Medicare but I don’t know what the situation is with people on parent visas as an example.

    New Permanent Residents have to wait for 2/3 years after getting permanent residency. This was introduced by LNP government in the 2014 budget.

  30. I was chatting to a very intelligent financial advisor this afternoon. He enquired after my health and just to make conversation I remarked that I had had 2 vax.
    To my surprise he seemed very doubtful that vaccinations would do much good because of all the mixed info.
    Now there’s one person who wouldn’t be swayed by $300.

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