Preselection latest

As the Victorian Liberals get candidates in place for target Labor seats, a new vacancy opens in a marginal of their own.

Recent developments relevant to the looming federal election, mostly involving the Liberals in Victoria:

• House of Representatives Speaker Tony Smith announced this week he would retire from politics at the election, after holding the seat of Casey on Melbourne’s eastern fringe since 2001. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports “leading contenders” for the Liberal preselection are David Lau, a manager with medical supplies company Ebos Group, and Aaron Violi, a manager with a company that provides online ordering services to restaurants. Both have form as political staffers, Lau with Senator Sarah Henderson and Violi with Senator James Patterson. The “controversial comments on Facebook related to abortion” that caused Lau to quit his job with Henderson appear not to have done him any harm with the party membership. Smith retained Casey by a margin of 4.6% in 2019, which has not changed with the redistribution.

• The Victorian Liberals have preselected former Geelong mayor Stephanie Asher for Corangamite, where Labor’s Libby Coker unseated Sarah Henderson in 2019, and lawyer and one-time Survivor contestant Sharn Coombes for Dunkley in Melbourne’s south-east, which Labor gained after a favourable redistribution in 2019. Brodie Cowburn of Bayside News reports other candidates for Dunkley included Chris Crewther, who held the seat for the Liberals from 2016 until his defeat in 2019, and Donna Hope, who as Donna Bauer held the marginal local state seat of Carrum for a term from 2010 to 2014.

• Queensland’s Liberal National party has preselected Colin Boyce, who has held the state seat of Callide since 2017, as its new candidate for the central Queensland seat of Flynn, held for the party on a margin of 8.7% and to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Ken O’Dowd. Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports Boyce “convincingly” won a local party ballot over Mitchell Brownlie, Ron English and Tracie Newitt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,299 comments on “Preselection latest”

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  1. Milenko Mijuskovic @ #1167 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 4:25 pm

    Jill Stark
    @jillastark
    I don’t understand the way Gladys reports the numbers. It’s not 27 cases who weren’t in isolation, it’s 34. Seven people being in the community for “part of their infectious period” means they were still out and about while infectious. Just like you can’t be a little bit pregnant

    Spin spin & more spin… or obscufucatson

    Yes, it just chips away at their credibility and creates distrust.

  2. Julian Hill MP
    @JulianHillMP
    ·
    5m
    Astounding. NSW half-arsed lockdown continues.

    The whole of Australia is paying the price for this mess – $1 Billion+ a week going on the national debt because of Morrison & Berejiklian’s monumental failures.

    People in SW Sydney suffer while Gladys allows this
    #auspol
    Quote Tweet

    Georgia Love
    @GeorgieALove
    · 3h
    Bondi right now, where masks nor social distance seem to matter
    #COVID19nsw
    —————————-

    Time for Victor Dominello to replace Gladys

  4. Speaking of spoons. No names, no pack drill.

    For I have known them all already, known them all:
    Have known the evenings, mornings, afternoons,
    I have measured out my life with coffee spoons;
    I know the voices dying with a dying fall
    Beneath the music from a farther room.
    So how should I presume?

    … No! I am not Prince Hamlet, nor was meant to be;
    Am an attendant lord, one that will do
    To swell a progress, start a scene or two,
    Advise the prince; no doubt, an easy tool,
    Deferential, glad to be of use,
    Politic, cautious, and meticulous;
    Full of high sentence, but a bit obtuse;
    At times, indeed, almost ridiculous—
    Almost, at times, the Fool.

    🙂

  5. Mexicanbeemer @ #1170 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 4:28 pm

    C@T
    The Liberals should pick up 4 to 6 seats but it wont be an endorsement of Michael O`Brien.

    I would’ve agreed with that last year, but the way they’re going the only one they may pick up is Pesutto in Hawthorn.
    They may even lose some seats they currently hold.

  9. C@T
    The last election win was so comprehensive there isn’t much for the ALP to pick up and this lockdown and the last lockdown has taken a bit of the shine off the Victorian government.

  11. Just been talking with some cousins in the south of France. They are very motivated by the new rules there regarding vaccine passports, for which they are eligible, as you won’t be able to go to restaurants or cinemas without this.

    Vaccination status is a major topic of conversation there, almost challenging the horrendous weather being experienced.

  12. It seems strange that Gladys has not instructed the NSW police to make at least a few token arrests in the Eastern Suburbs with the MSM tagging along to record the event.

    Or perhaps she is frightened of the police minister and commissioner.

  17. Player One says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 5:09 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #2064 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 5:07 pm

    How tall is Albo? Does anybody know?
    Depends on whether he is wearing his Otis elevator shoes.
    __________________________________
    Apparently Littlefinger is 5’8.

  18. From his early years in the Camperdown public housing estate Albo learned that a slight deficit in height can provide opportunities for a nicely timed uppercut. From the nuns at St. Mary he learned about ringcraft and timing. He’s not showboating like showbag Shorten, he’s waiting until he gets close and then BAM. It’s over.

  21. Whilst Barnacle might be sweating on getting his sauteed gherkins and sashimi tadpoles before the restaurant he’s carping about and is supposed to be help managing, burns down without any fire protection or insurance.

    It seems Chris Bowen doesn’t quite get the irony of critiquing the LNP by pointing at the pathetic state of debate and targets for climate policy in Australia. When implicitly and correctly pointing out that even if Labor are saying now they’ll aim for a net zero 2050 target, at this stage of the game it is already the weakest possible commitment. Neither Lib nor Labor have any more ambition than that, and even then it seems are reluctant to even make it an issue.

    As the whether there’s actual agreement in the whole of Labor seems questionable as well, can they really commit to that themselves with their support for more coal, gas and fracking for decades to come?
    As if the ~$200,000+ /yr in membership fees and donations from Woodside, and more $ from other fossil fuel sponsors, suggests these fossil fuel interests don’t expect anything for their Lib/Lab party political funding.

    Barnaby Joyce says Nationals won’t commit to net zero carbon emissions without seeing ‘menu’
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/18/barnaby-joyce-says-nationals-wont-commit-to-net-zero-carbon-emissions-without-seeing-menu

    “They are all pretty hopeless when it comes to seizing the opportunities for rural and regional Australia,” Bowen told Sky News.

    “It just goes to show that the weakest possible commitment of net zero by 2050, even that is impossible for this government which is divided over the science of climate change and divided over the economic opportunities of climate change including and especially for rural and regional Australia.”

    On the topic of carbon reduction, yesterday was apparently 7 years to the day since the abolishing of the Australian carbon price introduced during the Gillard government. A world leading action that actually reduced carbon pollution at the time.

    We will hopefully not have to endure the idiocy of Albo standing in front of the Australian public declaring there will be no carbon price under a government he leads. Even if a few bludgers might try to say it for him.
    Not the least because it looks like both the current and next PM of whatever faction will actually have a carbon price to deal with, just a European, US and possibly a Chinese one, not an Australian one.

    Despite the squeals from some about it and the supposed political suicide note it is considered by some in Australia. It seems the rest of the world are coming to agree a carbon price is kind of inevitable if carbon pollution and the climate crisis is to be dealt with in any serious fashion.

    Seven years after carbon price was scrapped, Australia’s policies still baked in denial
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/seven-years-after-carbon-price-was-scrapped-australias-policies-still-baked-in-denial/

    The world is turning. It’s still too slow to meet the 1.5°C target, but the pace is starting to quicken. The response to the floods in Europe has been to call for even more ambitious climate efforts, over and above the new “fit for 55” proposal unveiled this past week, with its proposed ban on new fossil fuel cars by 2035 and the implantation of carbon border taxes.

    The US is contemplating doing the same. Australian businesses, far from being prepared, now face the prospect of paying duties to international governments to maintain access to those markets. Finely crafted policies that would have seen Australians benefit from revenues earned from polluter payments, are now buried — too politically toxic even for Labor to embrace.

  22. Some idiot is trying to set the hares running on how tall our leaders are now? What next? What side they part their hair on? If they have any left on the top of their head that is.

  24. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 5:23 pm
    Some idiot is trying to set the hares running on how tall our leaders are now? What next? What side they part their hair on? If they have any left on the top of their head that is.
    _______________________
    See c@t : – you complain constantly, and then you post stuff like that.

    I turn the other cheek – but I think I would be justified to respond – which would then set you off again and have the usual suspects like zoomster rushing to your defence.

    My diplomatic forbearance however is not unlimited.

  25. Phillip Adams
    @PhillipAdams_1

    Threats from Queensland. Bjelke-Petersen, Pauline Hanson, Clive Palmer and Cane Toads

  27. Quoll @ #2071 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 5:21 pm

    The world is turning. It’s still too slow to meet the 1.5°C target, but the pace is starting to quicken. The response to the floods in Europe has been to call for even more ambitious climate efforts, over and above the new “fit for 55” proposal unveiled this past week, with its proposed ban on new fossil fuel cars by 2035 and the implantation of carbon border taxes

    Good post.

    As usual, Australia will will first be surprised and then be outraged, will still be in denial and be the last to move, will whinge and sook at how unfair it all is, and will end up looking utterly selfish and stupid 🙁

  28. Recon says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 5:17 pm
    From his early years in the Camperdown public housing estate Albo learned that a slight deficit in height can provide opportunities for a nicely timed uppercut. From the nuns at St. Mary he learned about ringcraft and timing. He’s not showboating like showbag Shorten, he’s waiting until he gets close and then BAM. It’s over.
    ________________________
    easy fixed – there is a section on elevator shoes on http://www.celebheights.com with before and after photos.

    The right pair can give you another 2 inches and not even noticeable.

  32. Meh quoll does a drive by, shooting at Labor.
    How is the Greens’ zero tank, zero ship, zero plane ADF plan coming along?

  33. Maybe quoll would like to see how his ideological soulmates in China are going:
    28% of total CO2 emissions and climbing.
    53% of total coal-fired CO2 emissions and climbing.
    Promise to keep increasing CO2 emissions until at least 1930.
    Talking vaguely about the possibility of maybe targeting zero net emissions by 2060.
    TOTAL SILENCE FROM THE GREENS ON THIS CATASTROPHIC STATE OF AFFAIRS.

  35. Lars Von Trier @ #1519 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 5:28 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 5:23 pm
    Some idiot is trying to set the hares running on how tall our leaders are now? What next? What side they part their hair on? If they have any left on the top of their head that is.
    _______________________
    See c@t : – you complain constantly, and then you post stuff like that.

    I turn the other cheek – but I think I would be justified to respond – which would then set you off again and have the usual suspects like zoomster rushing to your defence.

    My diplomatic forbearance however is not unlimited.

    Obviously you think such a banal topic is worthy of discussion. I see not many others agree with you.

    And since when did you become immune from assessments of your contributions? And don’t try and say I only said it because it was you. Not true.

    I mean, are you feeling lonely, Lars? No one to have a real conversation with, so you have to introduce drivel like that in order to get attention? Oh well, I suppose it worked.

    Oh, and one of the greatest leaders of the 20th century, Winston Churchill, was only 5’8″. And another of the greatest leaders of the 20th century, Gough Whitlam, was 6’4″, So your point about height is? Over and above prurient interest about Albanese.

  39. Gough Whitlam was Australia’s worst ever Prime Minister
    No one in the modern ALP can publicly question the false god of the Whitlam China legacy. But 50 years after his first visit to Beijing, it’s time to bust the myth and call it for what it was.

    By Greg Sheridan. Worst ever so called journalist in the Oz.

  40. C@t
    Labor people here find things to mock Coalition politicians on all the time, including what they wear, how they look, and other characteristics. That rarely elicits comment. In fact, people join in.

    Lars and Recon are doing so in mimicry, to send those people up, and as bait. They are looking for contradictions in behaviour, between our response to them and our response to Labor people doing the same.

    Unless you intend to comment every time someone mocks a politician from any side, the best response is to leave them to it. Each person reading can and will, in any case, form their own opinion of such exchanges – as we do of similar exchanges regarding Coalition politicians, btw. It’s not necessary to spell it out.

  41. NSW govt getting a pasting on Ch9 news. The lockdown and authorised workers ruling seems to be confusing many people.

    How did they botch this when all they had to do was mirror what the national cabinet agreed to nation-wide last year?

  42. steve davis @ #2089 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 6:05 pm

    Gough Whitlam was Australia’s worst ever Prime Minister
    No one in the modern ALP can publicly question the false god of the Whitlam China legacy. But 50 years after his first visit to Beijing, it’s time to bust the myth and call it for what it was.

    By Greg Sheridan. Worst ever so called journalist in the Oz.

    It’s taken nearly 50 years to undo all the good Whitlam did for Australia. But with the demonization of China and the destruction of our universities, the Liberals have finally just about managed it 🙁

  45. The construction site next door is still abuzz with activity. Flood lights blaring and lots of workers still onsite.

    Obviously burning the 11:59pm oil.

  46. steve davis @ #1534 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 6:05 pm

    Gough Whitlam was Australia’s worst ever Prime Minister
    No one in the modern ALP can publicly question the false god of the Whitlam China legacy. But 50 years after his first visit to Beijing, it’s time to bust the myth and call it for what it was.

    By Greg Sheridan. Worst ever so called journalist in the Oz.

    Funny how Greg Sheridan didn’t mention the subsequent enthusiastic embrace, over the next 50 years, of China by the Coalition. 😀

  48. Confessions @ #1540 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 6:10 pm

    The construction site next door is still abuzz with activity. Flood lights blaring and lots of workers still onsite.

    Obviously burning the 11:59pm oil.

    That’s what the early news said.

    I’ll see how much the order is respected in the breach tomorrow between 6.30am and 7am when I usually see a rush of Tradies going past the door to work.

  49. There was something about the Speers interview about Joyce that did not quite jell while I was watching it but which came to me later in the day.

    Speers allowed Joyce to frame the answers AS IF JOYCE WERE THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION.

    Speers could possibly have changed the frame by saying: ‘Mr Joyce, you are the Government. What is your menu and where do you intend that menu to take you?’

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