Preselection latest

As the Victorian Liberals get candidates in place for target Labor seats, a new vacancy opens in a marginal of their own.

Recent developments relevant to the looming federal election, mostly involving the Liberals in Victoria:

• House of Representatives Speaker Tony Smith announced this week he would retire from politics at the election, after holding the seat of Casey on Melbourne’s eastern fringe since 2001. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports “leading contenders” for the Liberal preselection are David Lau, a manager with medical supplies company Ebos Group, and Aaron Violi, a manager with a company that provides online ordering services to restaurants. Both have form as political staffers, Lau with Senator Sarah Henderson and Violi with Senator James Patterson. The “controversial comments on Facebook related to abortion” that caused Lau to quit his job with Henderson appear not to have done him any harm with the party membership. Smith retained Casey by a margin of 4.6% in 2019, which has not changed with the redistribution.

• The Victorian Liberals have preselected former Geelong mayor Stephanie Asher for Corangamite, where Labor’s Libby Coker unseated Sarah Henderson in 2019, and lawyer and one-time Survivor contestant Sharn Coombes for Dunkley in Melbourne’s south-east, which Labor gained after a favourable redistribution in 2019. Brodie Cowburn of Bayside News reports other candidates for Dunkley included Chris Crewther, who held the seat for the Liberals from 2016 until his defeat in 2019, and Donna Hope, who as Donna Bauer held the marginal local state seat of Carrum for a term from 2010 to 2014.

• Queensland’s Liberal National party has preselected Colin Boyce, who has held the state seat of Callide since 2017, as its new candidate for the central Queensland seat of Flynn, held for the party on a margin of 8.7% and to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Ken O’Dowd. Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports Boyce “convincingly” won a local party ballot over Mitchell Brownlie, Ron English and Tracie Newitt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,299 comments on “Preselection latest”

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  1. Some idiot is trying to set the hares running on how tall our leaders are now? What next? What side they part their hair on? If they have any left on the top of their head that is.

    If the exact same conversation was being made about Liberal politicians, or Greens politicians, you would be slapping your knees in laughter right now and joining right in.

  2. It’s always a good start to the week when Caaaarlton defeats Collingwood ..!
    ______
    Particularly when coming from behind

  3. I missed Berejiklian at 11am, by the time I switched on it was Chant followed by the second stringers. Watching grabs of her on the news, she sounded like she was the only state leader who’d had to deal with a Covid outbreak.

    If her govt hadn’t been resting on its laurels in the early stages of the outbreak, we wouldn’t be where we are now.

  4. The Greens position is that Australia should work internationally to reduce global emissions. That covers China’s emissions. They don’t have to mention them specifically, just as they do not mention US emissions, or European emissions, or anyone else’s, as far as I’m aware.

    Now, the Greens have said it’s nice China has a plan where Australia doesn’t. Maybe they’re simply being naive, and China’s “track record” on keeping their commitments doesn’t deserve such trust.

    However there is no track record, negative or positive, because the global community allowed that China need not be a part of such commitments until Paris, and at Paris they accepted a commitment that allowed China’s emissions rise until 2030 before falling. None of which is the Greens fault, blame the diplomats at Kyoto and Paris. Anyway, that means we currently have no external signs that indicate whether or not China will keep to their climate commitments.

    That leaves us with a question. What do we know about China’s internal politics and beliefs regarding Global Heating? What do they think of the science? How aware are they of the effects of GH on the environment in China, and how are they reacting? Maybe avid China watchers who know what goes on in China can tell us. Boerwar, over to you.

  5. C@t:

    If they are obeying the rules you shouldn’t see any construction workers out and about tomorrow.

    Unless it’s urgent or essential safety work, they’re all on pause.

  6. Recon says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 6:18 pm
    Australia’s relationship with China began it’s decline under Rudd. Which is a great irony of course, one of his key skills being fluency in Mandarin, which was supposed to be a boon to the nation. It all started off well but soon soured due to a number of issues and incidents:

    https://aus.thechinastory.org/archive/kevin-rudd-and-australia-china-relations/
    ______________________
    Yes what was the term at Copenhagen used by Rudd about the Chinese- ratf*ckers?

  7. steve davis @ #2089 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 6:05 pm

    Gough Whitlam was Australia’s worst ever Prime Minister
    No one in the modern ALP can publicly question the false god of the Whitlam China legacy. But 50 years after his first visit to Beijing, it’s time to bust the myth and call it for what it was.

    By Greg Sheridan. Worst ever so called journalist in the Oz.

    For whatever reason I think Sheridan is just trying to deflect away from the most extreme and dangerous PM we’ve ever had in Morrison who sits waaaaay out on the fringes.

  8. Wat Tyler @ #1546 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 6:16 pm

    Some idiot is trying to set the hares running on how tall our leaders are now? What next? What side they part their hair on? If they have any left on the top of their head that is.

    If the exact same conversation was being made about Liberal politicians, or Greens politicians, you would be slapping your knees in laughter right now and joining right in.

    Is that so?

    You know me better than I know myself it seems. Good on you, person on the internet.

    Um, and no. As I tried to demonstrate, I find height irrelevant to how good a leader is and so would criticise the subject whoever tried to stand it up.

    But not to worry, next time I’ll rely on you to tell me what I really mean. 🙂

  9. Confessions @ #1551 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 6:18 pm

    C@t:

    If they are obeying the rules you shouldn’t see any construction workers out and about tomorrow.

    Unless it’s urgent or essential safety work, they’re all on pause.

    And that’s exactly why I’ll be on the lookout. They probably think they can get away with it so far away from everything here. But we’ll see.

  10. Australia’s relationship with China began it’s decline under Rudd. Which is a great irony of course, one of his key skills being fluency in Mandarin, which was supposed to be a boon to the nation. It all started off well but soon soured due to a number of issues and incidents:

    If memory serves, former UKPM Anthony Eden knew a bit of Arabic too and it didn’t stop diplomatic relations with Egypt from collapsing.

    Moral to this story: diplomacy is hard complicated work and often decisions have already been made before any meetings happen. Gestures like being conversational in the other country’s language may score a little goodwill but it doesn’t go far.

  11. C@t, I’ve consciously avoided getting into flamewars in recent times – and turned the other cheek.

    You should reflect on your behaviour too! Many of your posts shall we say are “proprietorial” ? When you lose posters like display name and wat tyler – you should really think – maybe it is really your behaviour that needs to change?

  12. boerwar @ #2097 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 4:14 pm

    There was something about the Speers interview about Joyce that did not quite jell while I was watching it but which came to me later in the day.

    Speers allowed Joyce to frame the answers AS IF JOYCE WERE THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION.

    Speers could possibly have changed the frame by saying: ‘Mr Joyce, you are the Government. What is your menu and where do you intend that menu to take you?’

    Doesn’t that just highlight the shit show that is this Coalition Government?

    Morrison is getting it from the international community because of the lack of action, meanwhile his Coalition partners and good portion of his own Party continue to be against taking any real action.

  13. Q: Australia’s relationship with China began it’s decline under Rudd.

    Gillard however secured annual high level ministerial meetings between the 2 countries- a first for a Western nation…..

  14. I wonder which neocon US think tank Sheridan has fallen deeply madly in love with this time? He was a lol a minute back in the day as he gushed over the intellectual awesomeness of US foreign policy people. Biggest larfs reserved for the contortionist act put on to explain just why, despite what it looked like to us plebs, Afghanistan and Iraq policies were great successes.
    But nothing beats the Sheridan LOLs provided by this wee collection of his quotes about Abbott.
    .
    How I learnt to love Tony Abbott
    BY Greg Sheridan

    A bromance for the ages

    Abbott was my best friend … We talked over everything. The meaning of life, the purpose of politics…………..The speeches he works on most show the beneficial effect of an Oxford education. [21 July 2012]
    To say the Syrian conflict involves “baddies versus baddies” is almost technical in the precision of its accuracy. [3 September 2013]
    Reagan was calm, measured, engaging and presidential – much like Abbott last night. [12 August 2013]
    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2013/december/1385816400/greg-sheridan/how-i-learnt-love-tony-abbott#mtr

  15. The QLD premier is the winner here.

    “Gotta go!” This has been the frequent refrain from Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk when she wants to wind up pesky press conferences that are not going her way.

    Now, after crunching the numbers, Diary can reveal the Queensland Premier has won the gold medal among all state and federal leaders when it comes to dodging tough questions from reporters.

    From June 30 to July 5 — the week that Palaszczuk was grilled by journalists over her controversial AstraZeneca vaccine stance — we measured the average length of question times for Australia’s leaders in their daily Covid-19 press conferences.
    Palaszczuk took an average of just 13 minutes and 55 seconds to answer questions from the Brisbane press before winding them up, often with her signature “Gotta go”.

    That’s 16 minutes short of her Victorian Labor counterpart, Dan Andrews, who famously tells reporters: “I’ll answer every single question you ask.”

    It’s also an average of six minutes short of the time Prime Minister Scott Morrison took to answer media queries during the same week. Gladys Berejiklian beats Palaszczuk by seven minutes, Western Australia’s Mark McGowan is 11 minutes ahead and South Australia’s Steven Marshall defeats the Queenslander by 14 minutes.

  16. “When you lose posters like display name …”

    Oh dear, what a significantly disastrous turn of events! Someone better check whether the Earth will still exist tomorrow :P.

  17. Confessions says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 6:10 pm
    The construction site next door is still abuzz with activity. Flood lights blaring and lots of workers still onsite.

    Obviously burning the 11:59pm oil.

    No construction shut down noon Monday

  18. Wow, this Wat Tyler guy really thinks he’s got it going on! Now he knows what a zero Kevin Rudd is/was when it comes to China/Asia. Apparently there are those who disagree with this giant mind and think Kevin Rudd might be okay when it comes to China/Asia:

    Senior Leadership
    The Hon. Kevin Rudd
    The Honorable Kevin Rudd AC

    President and CEO, Asia Society; President, Asia Society Policy Institute

    Kevin Rudd became president and CEO of Asia Society in January 2021 and has been president of the Asia Society Policy Institute since January 2015. He served as Australia’s 26th Prime Minister from 2007 to 2010, then as Foreign Minister from 2010 to 2012, before returning as Prime Minister in 2013.

    https://asiasociety.org/about/senior-leadership

  19. Abbott was my best friend … We talked over everything. The meaning of life, the purpose of politics…………..The speeches he works on most show the beneficial effect of an Oxford education.

    That’s not larf, that’s barf!

  20. Confessions @ #1565 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 6:33 pm

    Abbott was my best friend … We talked over everything. The meaning of life, the purpose of politics…………..The speeches he works on most show the beneficial effect of an Oxford education.

    That’s not larf, that’s barf!

    I wonder if they ate raw onions together?

    Oops, sorry, I’m not allowed to make fun of Conservative politicians. 😉

  21. I have posted at this place longer than many here and I know that there is a tendency for people to be very choosy when applying the moral high ground. Your morals and ethics only matter if you’re willing to apply some consistency to them. Suddenly deciding you don’t like a tone because its targeting someone you like is just partisan whining.

  22. I’m not sure why Cat is going off on Wat Tyler for what barely even counts as a criticism of Kevin Rudd. Especially since Cat herself has written far more scathing things about the man in previous years.

  23. I suspect there are people here who think I am a new poster. I am not. I just changed my name from the former (Rational Leftist) because I didn’t like the name and wanted to change it.

    That’s my fault. I thought retaining the same avatar might have conveyed it but I should have communicated it better.

  24. C@t:

    Why aren’t you allowed to make fun of reactionaries? Their hypocritical posturing invariably invites ridicule.

  25. Player One says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 6:41 pm

    Perhaps Albo and Scomo are using the same powder? I reckon they may both need to check the “use by” date on the packet.

    —————————————–

    Labor continues to call out the incompetence of Morrison and his cronies and ramp it up more leading into the election campaign , Morrison and his cronies will need more than powder to make it a contest

  26. Wat:

    I recognised the avatar immediately, but I’ve probably clocked a few more hours in Breath of the Wild and Super Smash Bros then most people on this blog.

  27. I suspect there are people here who think I am a new poster. I am not. I just changed my name from the former (Rational Leftist) because I didn’t like the name and wanted to change it.

    I noticed that a couple weeks ago.

  28. Wat:

    I recognised the avatar immediately, but I’ve probably clocked a few more hours in Breath of the Wild and Super Smash Bros then most people on this blog.

    That was my thought. Not everyone on this blog with an admittedly older average membership recognises Link (The Zelda series is my favourite game series and Link is one of my “mains” in Smash Ultimate.)

  29. I haven’t heard much about China from the Greens (it’s like they think they are an Australian political party or something!), but I have clear memories of at least one Greens MP being very critical not too long ago, though I cannot recall the individual or the details.

  30. ‘a r says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 6:46 pm

    boerwar @ #2082 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 5:53 pm

    TOTAL SILENCE FROM THE GREENS ON THIS CATASTROPHIC STATE OF AFFAIRS.

    You mean the Australian Greens don’t have policies to enact when they’re elected as the ruling party of China? Astonishing.’
    ______________________________________
    Tsk, tsk.

    The Greens claim to be representing the Reef in public discourse. Noting that the West has been a major contributor to CO2 emissions in the past, it is China that is now the single biggest driver of global warming by far.

    The Greens spend over 50% of their time frotting an Australian opposition party when it is the Australian Government which decides Australia’s emissions and it is China which is leading the pack when it comes to killing the Reef.

    There is only one conclusion here: the Greens actually do not give a fuck for the Reef.

  31. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 6:15 pm
    It’s always a good start to the week when Caaaarlton defeats Collingwood ..!
    …………………. ……………………

    When RD, Gg and I can enthusiastically agree on something there must be a higher power involved. And I have no spiritual bones whatsoever.

  32. Player One says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 6:41 pm
    Scott @ #2124 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 6:38 pm

    It seems Lars Von Trier thinks Morrison is keeping his powder dry until the election campaign
    Perhaps Albo and Scomo are using the same powder? I reckon they may both need to check the “use by” date on the packet.
    __________________
    I would have thought ScoMo being so fat – would be a turn-off but evidently not. He must have a BMI pushing 30 (ie obese).

  33. I would love to be able to make jokes about Labor but none of them have the inborn comedic potential of Sexy Barnaby, Mickmack the Elvis Imitator, or the Great Curry Chef himself.

  34. Poroti if you are around. The QLD government just starting to get some negative press over the border still being opened particularly as we had a Covid case just over the border in Chinderah.

  35. I am not sure exactly what has happened here because there has been a fair bit of vacillation in the official Chinese reporting.

    Earlier Chinese reports seemed to imply that China had unilaterally sent a criminal investigation team to Pakistan to ‘help’ with the investigations.

    The question that arises is what happens in Australia if a group of Australian Chinese are killed in a terrorist attack in Australia?

    Can we expect China to make the same sort of demands it has been making of Pakistan in this instance?

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1228911.shtml

  36. I haven’t heard much about China from the Greens (it’s like they think they are an Australian political party or something!), but I have clear memories of at least one Greens MP being very critical not too long ago, though I cannot recall the individual or the details.

    I Googled. It seems they’ve been pretty critical of the Chinese Government re: Hong Kong, and have raised concern about our economic dependence on them. It seems they advocate more “independence” from both the US and China. I wouldn’t call them anti-China by any means but I also wouldn’t call them pro-China.

    It seems their IR policy is sort of a lean towards pacifism, except in the case of necessary humanitarian intervention and liberal institutionalism with a focus on environmentalism and human rights.

  37. citizen:

    Odds on it will happen. Having this coalition of two parties allows the Libs and Nats to play off different messages depending on the audience.

    In that case Morrison will be spruiking one thing to the international community while Barnaby is able to spruik another back home.

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