The fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which gives Scott Morrison his weakest results since the onset of COVID-19 – down six on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 40%, with his lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 48-28 to 46-28. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 41% and down one on disapproval to 35%. These numbers have been fed into the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, sharpening Morrison’s established downward trend.
Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 has also deteriorated, with a nine point drop in the good rating since last month to 44% and a six point increase in poor to 30%. Among respondents in New South Wales, the good rating for the federal government has slumped from 62% to 44%, and that for the state government is down from 69% to 57%. A range of other questions are featured on matters relating to COVID-19, including findings that 36% would be willing to get the Pfizer vaccine but not AstraZeneca (5% said vice-versa); that 40% believe the vaccine rollout is being down efficiently, down from 43% a month ago (and 68% earlier in the year); and that 64% believe it is being done safely, down from 67%.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1099; full results can be viewed here.
Elsewhere, the Age/Herald yesterday published results aggregated from the three monthly Resolve Strategic polls which compared current voting intention with how respondents recalled having voted in 2019, and found women were more likely to have shifted away from the Coalition (down four points to 37%) than men (down one to 41%). On the subject of Resolve Strategic, Macquarie University academic Murray Goot casts a critical eye over its (and to a lesser extent Essential Research’s) attitudinal polling in Inside Story and takes aim at its refusal to join the Australian Polling Council and adhere to its transparency standards.
77 cases? Dan Andrews didn’t fuly lockdown until 191 cases per day.
NSW has recorded 77 new locally acquired cases of Covid-19, a new daily record for the state.
A person has also died from Covid-19.
The premier Gladys Berejiiklian, said that more than 50 of the new cases were close household contacts.
33 people were in the community while infectious.
Recon
Excuses excuses.
The truth is the LNP in Victoria are on the same page as Boris Johnston and his Brexiteers and the Trump cult with a leader suggesting injecting bleach.
The same page as Bolsanaro and other strong men. Netanyahu stands out as an exception because he did take up the Pfizer offer and had strict lockdown.
Why does she say it is playing out “as anticipated”?
If it was anticipated, then this situation is by choice?
Victoriasays:
Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 10:38 am
You just believe Andrews can never be criticised.
Taking off your blinkers would do wonders for your mental health.
It’s just not worth it.
guytaur says:
Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 11:07 am
Recon
Excuses excuses.
The truth is the LNP in Victoria are on the same page as Boris Johnston and his Brexiteers and the Trump cult with a leader suggesting injecting bleach.
________________
I agree with that. I’m just saying that Victorians didn’t consider them credible. They were not led to that conclusion by Dan Andrews.
If this was anticipated why didn’t the NSW govt go harder from the outset?!
It’s going to be a bitter, lonely, winter in Sydney this year.
Great analysis by the sat paper. Thanks GG
Recon says they doesn’t view everything through a Labor-Liberal prism, but never fails to whatabout Labor if NSW’s response is criticised.
Can’t even keep the pretence going for a day.
The ad …hmm… I thought it was most likely aimed at the vax-hesitant. The flat satin light quality reminded me of teflon….good idea, i thought. It has no rough edges nor sharp points. Very very simple framing and message, presented by a courteous, amiable, credible, neutral authority figure. It has a very light play on words. There is very high congruity between the spoken and the visual. It is without political inflection….not bad at all….deflates anxiety….be interesting to see if it works on its targets…
Golden Glad needs to come out and tell Sydneysiders to ignore whatever the likes of Alan Jones, 2GB, Sky after dark and the vacuous idiots on FM radio are saying about the lockdown and vaccination.
Will we see triple digit case numbers tomorrow?
Ven @ #2937 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 9:02 am
I’ve found that visiting supermarkets can provide an interesting insight into a country, especially when you focus on the relative amount of freezer and fridge space that they contain.
Goodness me some people are thick
Don’t know how many times I have to say it
It’s not about being critical of a leader.
We are in a frickin pandemic.
Can you see what policising does
Why do you think NSW is now in a shit show
NSW people desperately need leadership they can trust.
Morrison runs from questions and responsibility, so does Hazzard.
Gladys does her best for 25 or 30 minutes, but that’s about it.
Chant has lost a bit of chutzpah due to delays.
It’s going to be tough times over the next month – who is going to stand up and LEAD the way …?
Who are the vax-hesitant? Will the ad work for them? Will there be more ads aimed at different cohorts?
There’s no doubt that last year Dan Andrews should have locked down Melbourne earlier than he did, rather than going for the postcodes option until the daily number hit 191. But this makes what has happened in Sydney even less excusable. All other states, Victoria included, have learnt from what happened in Victoria last year, and understand that the lesson from that was go hard, go early, wait and see is not an option. Not only did New South Wales wait and see, but even when they reluctantly did decide on a lockdown, to say it has been a half-hearted lockdown would be an understatement. There are absolutely no excuses and no diversions that can change the fact that the NSW government are in a mess of their own making.
BK
Agree.
She needs to talk directly to the people.
Clearly and concisely
Recon
By staring them down Andrews did indeed counter the Murdoch narrative.
There is a reason Victoria stopped a second wave out of western countries with Murdoch media. Even today Biden still can’t get red states to take health advice seriously.
In Australia Daniel Andrews led the Premiers to take the health advice seriously. He forced the hand of the Prime Minister.
That political leadership made a real difference.
That’s not saying mistakes were not made. Of course there were.
Just as don’t make it saint Dan don’t underestimate what leadership he did show.
Victoria says:
Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 11:13 am
So, no one is politicising it. Good to know.
DisplayName says:
Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 11:10 am
Recon says they doesn’t view everything through a Labor-Liberal prism, but never fails to whatabout Labor if NSW’s response is criticised.
Can’t even keep the pretence going for a day.
__________________
It’s not about NSW being criticized. To be honest, as a Victorian I have a bit of trouble saying much at all about other states.
Recon @ #2945 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 9:06 am
Those numbers by themselves are meaningless.
The important consideration is how quickly you transition to lockdown once you recognise the outbreak.
Recon,
Pull your head in. You are trying to compare this time last year with this year. Chalk and cheese.
NSW have had a full 12 months of data and evidence and yet they refused to implement a lockdown until it got away from them.
The NSW Liberals have set themselves up to fail on Covid. Pity the people of Sydney and beyond.
Confessions
Yes triple digits very much on the cards sadly. Maybe not tomorrow as that will reflect Sunday numbers so there may be a lag; but most likely early in the week I’d say.
guytaur says:
Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 11:15 am
That’s not saying mistakes were not made. Of course there were.
Just as don’t make it saint Dan don’t underestimate what leadership he did show.
_______________
I agreed with most of what Andrews did during lockdown. There were some inconsistent regulations but that is a minor issue. In fact, I think he should have locked down sooner. My main criticism was over the leak from hotel quarantine and the disgrace of an inquiry they conducted.
I’m not going to praise his leadership either. I just don’t do that. I expect competent work.
Further, don’t mess with delta. Different Reff. We knew this, but we didn’t adapt to the change in the situation. Poor resilience.
77 cases? Dan Andrews didn’t fuly lockdown until 191 cases per day.
—————
Different times. Less was known. And they seemed far less arrogant, were exposed to more scrutiny, appeared more transparent and had a few inquiries into it.
In the case of NSW, it does appear political blindness and arrogance trumped the lessons learned from Victoria and elsewhere.
‘poroti says:
Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 7:53 am
Cud Chewer
In biological systems the ‘bleeding obvious’ is wRONg a surprising number of times.’
__________________________________________________
Hang on, hang on. I hope you are not dissing common sense?
Victoria @ #2969 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 11:14 am
And such a shame we have a cack-handed prime minister who screws up everything he touches. Being from Sydney himself, he’s ideally placed to be taking a leadership role in helping the NSW govt in its communication effort.
Sadly though Morrison is just useless, and best left in his kids’ cubby house during crisis times.
Reconsays:
Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 11:06 am
77 cases? Dan Andrews didn’t fuly lockdown until 191 cases per day.
_____________________________________
Dan tried all of these steps that we are now seeing from NSW- the lockdown of a smaller region, etc.
What is baffling for all of us is to see these steps all tried once again…
Where Dan gets a big tick from all of us was his guts to stick the course and get the cases down to zero despite all the carping and messages to open up now and how every subsequent outbreak has been zeroed. It’s much better for the public and business to take lose a week or 2 in lockdown and then go back to full capacity to to be half open, under the shadow of restrictions or to be at risk of an outbreak growing.
What you also should be noting is how rapidly the growth of cases this time in comparison to the Victorian second wave, the rate of growth of this outbreak is leaving the Vic 2nd wave for dead So 77 cases now is equivalent to what say 200-250 were in the Victoria timeline. This is going to be so much harder to get under control…
Simon Katich says:
Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 11:20 am
77 cases? Dan Andrews didn’t fuly lockdown until 191 cases per day.
—————
Different times. Less was known. And they seemed far less arrogant, were exposed to more scrutiny, appeared more transparent and had a few inquiries into it.
_______________
So both Victoria and NSW should have shut down sooner. agreed.
Poor Chant can’t take a trick!
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/07/07/essential-research-leadership-and-covid-polling/comment-page-60/#comment-3648927
… reproduction factor of delta or lambda, isn’t it worse than earlier variants of Wuflu?
Alpha Zero says:
Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 11:21 a
Where Dan gets a big tick from all of us was his guts to stick the course and get the cases down to zero despite all the carping and messages to open up now and how every subsequent outbreak has been zeroed.
________
This is what I have a problem with. The sanctification of Dan Andrews. He should get a big tick for ignoring the Herald Sun, Peta Credlin and Tim Smith?
Mate he was happy they were carrying on. It made him look like the only sane person on TV.
The problem for Sydney is that the federal government is the most corrupt since Federation.
The problem for Sydney is the state government is as corrupt as several previous state governments.
The problem with corruption is that, to flourish, it depends on corrupting truth and on corrupting trust.
rorts = corruption; spin = corruption; information suppression = corruption
Why would any sane Sydneysider believe anything that Morrison and Berejiklian say about the pandemic? This lack of trust is filling Sydney’s ICUs. This lack of trust is making people very, very sick. It is now starting to kill them.
boerwar @ #2974 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 9:20 am
“Common sense” is often one of the first things discarded as a possibility by science when exploring how a process really works.
The Chukchi , Inuit and Sami people would strongly beg to differ 🙂
Confessions
It’s worse. By denying JobKeeper and JobSeeker returning Morrison is stopping Berejikilian going for that hard lockdown.
The reality will force her to at some point but that reluctance is there because business is rightfully telling her the cost to them.
The LNP ideology on economics is a clear and present danger to the health of Australians
DisplayName @ #768 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 11:10 am
Social media is being abused by bad actors. We just have to accept that fact. We need to be vigilant.
Alfa strain 191 when Vic called hard lock down.
Delta strain is 6 times more infectious.
An equivalent trigger number for the delta strain hard lock down would be 191/6=32.
Chant’s message seems to be get AZ.. if you have 1st dose get 2nd dose early… that should have been the advice 6 months ago.
Then logically get a 3rd dose of Pfizer next year.. we will still be in the current situation a year from now
Why does Gladys say “33 with some level of exposure in the community”? That is true I guess. But there are the partials as well. I detest the omission of the partials from being transmissible. Provides false security.
From ABC site:
Thirty-two cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and nine cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period.
Thirty-three cases were infectious in the community, and three cases remain under investigation.
So 77 – 32 = 45 at risk cases (3 are under investigation and should be treated as at risk)
I can give a positive opinion on the Andrews government regarding the investment they have made in public transport and social/public housing which has been long overdue. But I won’t praise him for something that I expected him to do, just because past governments have neglected this area.
Praising leaders is how you end up in very dark places.
At the lighter end, you get sprokets with a revolving door of wall posters in his bedroom. Rudd, Gillard, Rudd, Shorten, Albo. All treated like demigods.
When it gets worse than that you get a Cult of Personality.
I resist all that shit.
boerwar @ – 9:20 am
Common sense has a problem with the friends it hangs out with. The likes of Alan Jones and Poorlene , to name just two, can’t stop talking about their mate good old ‘common sense’ .
Looks like the PB death riders have entered the hyperbowl phase.
Confessions @ #789 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 11:21 am
Scott Morrison should be lending a hand but he’s ‘armless.
(Sorry, just riffing off the new ad)
Lars Von Trier @ #805 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 11:32 am
Yeah, yeah we get it. You’ve got your snappy little one-liner and you’re going to ride it into the ground. And that sums up the totality of your contribution. Flogging a dead horse.
Ah; just heard that the government themselves are expecting over 100 tomorrow. That’s scary! This will get much worse before it gets better. It’s time for five reasons to leave your home and only the most essential businesses to remain open.