The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor returning to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred after a tied result last time, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). Changes on leadership ratings are likewise very modest, with Scott Morrison up a point on approval to 55% and down two on disapproval to 41%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down two to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is barely changed at 53-33, compared with 53-32 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.
UPDATE (29/6): The Australian has published further results from the poll relating to COVID-19, including a fourth go at the question of how the Prime Minister has handled the situation. This series records a pattern of decline since his debut result of 85% good and 14% poor in April last year, to a current showing of 61% good (down nine over the last two months) and 36% bad (up nine points). Satisfaction with the government’s handling of the vaccine rollout is down three to 50% compared with two months ago, with dissatisfied up three to 46%. A new question on whether Labor would have done better turns up a neutral result, with 25% saying better, 36% no difference and 27% worse.
Dio
Its 4% or 8% of the probability of being hospitalised, relative to not being vaccinated and assuming exposure as a given. Your absolute level of risk still depends on your age and your probability of exposure.
Just for the sake of being concrete. Suppose your odds were 10% of being hospitalised if infected and not vaccinated.
With Pfizer, your odds are now 0.4% (1 in 250) and with AZ your odds are 0.8% (1 in 125)
In other words your chances of ending up in hospital with AZ are double those with Pfizer. For getting sick its triple the odds. And that includes long covid.
And as I said before. What you really need to worry about is the risk if being exposed. If the vaccine is too weak and doesn’t create herd immunity, the overall level of infection (and thus your personal risk of being exposed) goes up several orders of magnitude. Yes, thousands of times.
This is why people shouldn’t be so smug about pretending that the vaccine need only be protective on-an-individual-exposure basis. Herd immunity is your best form of protection.
poroti:
That’s certainly what I thought likely when this issue started to emerge
What’s unclear is why it’s been allowed to go on and on
Poroti basically I think there are so many stats being thrown around no one is sure what they all mean anymore.
However I doubt an 8% mortality rate for a fully vaccinated population sounds correct.
Some reassuring numbers from the UK
.
.
Vaccinated people are dying from the Delta variant, but in small numbers and almost all are over 50
“Someone aged 80 who is fully vaccinated essentially takes on the risk of an unvaccinated person of around 50 – much lower, but still not nothing, and so we can expect some deaths,”
No fully vaccinated people under 50 died, and the overall death rate was 0.13%.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/vaccinated-among-delta-deaths-but-older-relatively-few-uk-data-2021-6?r=US&IR=T
Watching replay of 7.30.. Anna P repeated erroneous statement a few times that the “UK not allowing people under the age of 40 getting AZ”…
This is from UK Gov web site..
UK in the coming months and taking a precautionary approach in relation to the extremely small risk of thrombosis and thrombocytopenia following the first dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, the JCVI has advised a preference for adults aged 30 to 39 without underlying health conditions to receive an alternative to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine – where available and only if this does not cause substantial delays in being vaccinated.
It’s a long stretch to interpret this the way Anna has…. not as definitive as Anna claims… expect Scomo & Co to use this opening tomorrow.
Some from the US of A
.
AP report authors also acknowledge that some people who are fully vaccinated can get a “breakthrough infection” of COVID-19. These occurred in fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 people hospitalized for COVID-19 in May, or about 0.1%.
.
“The fact that only 0.8% of COVID-19 deaths are in the fully vaccinated should persuade those people still hesitant about vaccination,” says Hugh Cassiere, MD, medical director of Respiratory Therapy Services at North Shore University Hospital in Manhasset, NY.
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210629/almost-all-us-covid-19-deaths-now-in-the-unvaccinated
Rex Douglas @ #2364 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 8:12 pm
* The “Potential Benefits” column on the right does not take into account Delta variant *
I knew it!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/30/there-was-no-argument-inside-national-cabinet-about-morrisons-astrazeneca-advice-because-he-didnt-flag-it
Morrison stopped off in Singapore on his way to the G7.
Murpharoo
OTOH
Canada experiencing global warming:
Canada weather: Dozens dead as heatwave shatters records
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57654133
davidwh
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 9:54 pm
Poroti basically I think there are so many stats being thrown around no one is sure what they all mean anymore.
However I doubt an 8% mortality rate for a fully vaccinated population sounds correct.
Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in the US now are in people who weren’t vaccinated, according to analysis by the Associated Press.
And only about 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people. That translates to about 0.8 per cent, or five deaths per day on average.
so it’s 0.8% not 8%… but hay what’s a decimal point or 2
The truth has been posted numerous times on this site, looks like fake news just keeps coming
Avoiding long Covid is another reason to get vaccinated. There is going to be an awful lot of chronic illness in countries like the US and UK from long Covid.
AZ heading towards use by date. Locals getting bolshie re getting AZ injection. What to do ? Give it to someone who really needs it ? Nah stuff ’em…….
.
“The leaders then discussed whether Australia should, in essence, cut its losses, and export the current AstraZeneca stock to the Pacific and the region. But this idea was dismissed.”
Seems like the return of the Vic ALP state secretary is causing some concern seeing she is one of the last of the Somyurek faction still standing.
8% is the hospitalisation rate if you are vaccinated and develop Covid.
davidwh
See my post @ 9:52
Sceptic
Yep, some reading glasses needed I think 🙂
citizen says:
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 5:24 pm
It’s 26 hours since my AZ jab and so far not much reaction – some sore joints but that could be due to weeding and sawing!
Me too. Jabbed yesterday afternoon and no discernible side effects other than a desire to eat salt and vinegar crisps and to drink mineral water. However, it’s really only 1 Day. I’m still waiting for the Mack Truck to hit.
Diogenes
Or as an optimist would say, a fully vaccinated person has a 92% chance of leaving hospital alive 🙂
poroti
I wouldn’t call 0.13% dwath rate all that wonderful. Its up there with the worst seasonal flu.
Reconsays:
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 10:08 pm
Seems like the return of the Vic ALP state secretary is causing some concern seeing she is one of the last of the Somyurek faction still standing.
________________
Shafting an employee whilst on maternity leave. Never a good look.
Diogenes
So I interpret this statement to mean:
if X is vaccinated (fully) and subsequently* develops COVID-19 symptoms, then X has a 8% chance to require hospitalisation
Is that correct?
* How long after the second dose?
Dio
Just to add to that
The best way to avoid long covid is, by far, herd immunity.
So the “student” nurse that was working across several sites; that doesn’t sound like a typical student placement to me.
It sounds an awful lot like a NSW health employee that wasn’t vaccinated while working across several sites, who happens to be studying.
Can anyone clarify this?
E. G. Theodore @ #2417 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 10:15 pm
You’re considered fully vaccinated 2 weeks after the second dose*.
* for Pfizer; AZ maybe different?
Taylormade says:
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 10:14 pm
Reconsays:
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 10:08 pm
Seems like the return of the Vic ALP state secretary is causing some concern seeing she is one of the last of the Somyurek faction still standing.
________________
Shafting an employee whilst on maternity leave. Never a good look.
_____________________
Shorten is backing her so we will see how the SDA and Marles feels about it. She’s in a relationship with an advisor to David Littleproud. Mixed marriages these days are quite something.
poroti
A fully vaccinated person in a country that has herd immunity has a far, far better chance if not getting sick at all – because several orders of magnitude lower overall infection rate.
EGT
Its relative to exposure.
Two identical people. Both are similarly exposed. One vaccinated. One isn’t.
The vaccinated person has 4 percent the risk of the non vaccinated person. Its multiplicative. If your odds were 1 in 10, now its 1 in 250.
Of course your odds are double if you chose AZ.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VA7J0KkanzM
Thanks CC for putting things into perspective
EGT
True (and it’s 4% for Pfizer).
I think it’s two weeks for both vaccines to be fully vaccinated.
CC
True, the burden of chronic respiratory disease etc will be huge. For eg, about a million New Yorkers have had Covid. Long Covid is something like 10% rate for more than 6 months so 100,000 patients. That’s a lot of sick people.
I think everyone is interpreting the 92% AZ or 96% Pfizer stats wrongly.
Being fully vaccinated reduces your risk of developing any infection by ~80% (average estimate of both vaccines). For the ~20% of people that do end up with an infection and are fully vaccinated then you have an 8% AZ or 4% Pfizer change of developing severe illness and being hospitalised.
That is a dramatic reduction of risk which ever way you look at it.
See some recent Delta data out of the UK
“According to the agency’s latest variant technical briefing,3 as of 14 June a total of 806 people had been admitted to hospital with the delta variant of the virus—an increase of 423 since last week. Among these cases, 527 people were unvaccinated and only 84 of the 806 had received both doses.”
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1596
Diogenes:
So 8% / 4% of those who are symptomatic…
And is it not the case that the Vaxxed are also less likely to become symptomatic – so it would be 8% / 4% of an already smaller number?
EGT
Its relative to exposure.
Two people. Both are similarly exposed. One vaccinated. One isn’t.
The vaccinated person has 4 percent the risk of the non vaccinated person. Its multiplicative. If your odds were 1 in 10, now its 1 in 250.
Of course your odds are double if you chose AZ.
LM82.
You’re offered 2 vaccines labelled A and B.
If you take vaccine A and you are exposed, your odds of ending up in hospital is 1 in 250.
If you take vaccine B and you are exposed, your odds of ending up in hospital are 1 in 125 – twice as high.
Bit of a no brainer isn’t it.
Worse. What if everyone takes vaccine B and now your odds of being exposed to a rampant virus are a thousand times higher…
cud chewer,
It must be late for me, but could you explain the following:
If you take vaccine A and you are exposed, your odds of ending up in hospital is 1 in 250.
If you take vaccine B and you are exposed, your odds of ending up in hospital are 1 in 125 – twice as high.
Why are they twice the odds?
My simple mind was able to digest the relative risk as explained by windhover earlier today.
My understanding in simplistic terms (I could be wrong haha)
Delta Strain – After 2 shots of Vaccine
AstraZeneca Stats
Efficacy: 60%
Stopping Severe Disease/Hospitalisation: 92%
With AstraZeneca in a population of 100, 40 people will develop symptoms/infection. Out of the 40 that do develop symptoms ~3.2 people will require hospitalisation due to severe disease.
Pfizer Stats
Efficacy: 88%
Stopping Severe Disease/Hospitalisation: 96%
With Pfizer in a population of 100, 12 people will develop symptoms/infection. Out of the 12 that develop symptoms <1 people will be hospitalised due to severe illness.
Note: There is a belief that AZ stats are better, but the efficacy takes longer to build up. However the studies that measured efficacy were for a set short term period.
E. G. Theodore @ #2406 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 10:02 pm
Thanks for that. Which also might explain why Morrison is thinking about sending them off to the Pacific Islands. Still useful, just don’t let anyone in Australia see the Use By Date, it might scare the horses.
That right there is the problem. My choice was AZ or nothing at all. I chose AZ.
The mixed political marriage of Liberal voting Chris Uhlmann and former Labor MP, Gai Brodtmann, is still going strong.
Just goes to show you shouldn’t make stupid broad generalisations about these things.
@michellegrattan tweets
View from The Hill: Scott Morrison’s AstraZeneca ‘hand grenade’ turns into cluster bomb theconversation.com/view-from-the-… via @ConversationEDU
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-scott-morrisons-astrazeneca-hand-grenade-turns-into-cluster-bomb-163680
LR
I had no choice either. That’s why I fully intend to get a booster with Pfizer or Moderna.
My point though is that the general public should be made aware of the need for a booster. Especially for those who got 2 shots of AZ.
”
steve davissays:
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 10:04 pm
Canada experiencing global warming:
Canada weather: Dozens dead as heatwave shatters records
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57654133
”
So more people dying because of ‘global warming’ than COVID and that too in an Advanced /Wealthy nation. Imagine what the fate of people in third world/ poor nations will be.
Cud Chewer @ #2442 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 11:19 pm
And surely that’s the real no-brainer. Take what you can get now, in the knowledge that you can “top up” the efficacy later on.
I’ve been thinking about the table showing potential harms versus potential benefits of the AZ vaccine.
https://twitter.com/whereisdaz/status/1410151727551025152
The purpose of the table is to allow an individual to assess their individual risk versus individual benefit in a particular epidemiological scenario (low and medium exposure scenarios in this case). Looking at the medium exposure scenario, if I were 18 years old (I’m 64) my chances of a blood clot (which I assume would put me into an ICU) though low is still higher than my chances of visiting an ICU because of covid. The tipping point is the 50+ cohorts. In that scenario and as individuals, only those of us older than 50 are better off getting the AZ shot than not getting it.
So why would anyone recommend to someone younger than 50 that they get the AZ vaccine?
I can only think of two reasons. The first is that the medium exposure scenario is too optimistic. “It’s going to get much worse folks.” (I personally lean to that. I expect every single one of us will be exposed to one or more variants soon enough.) But the second reason is that as a population we need to go for herd immunity, paradoxically so that it doesn’t get worse. Something for an ethics class?
”
Cud Chewersays:
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 10:13 pm
poroti
I wouldn’t call 0.13% dwath rate all that wonderful. Its up there with the worst seasonal flu.
”
I read somewhere that The death rate for a person vaccinated with AZ is .004%
Ven, re Canadian deaths from heat versus covid. Possibly the better result is because people are actually doing something about covid.
Mozart was renowned for composing difficult female arias, arguably none more so than his character the “Queen of the Night” (purported to be based on his mother-in-law), in the “Magic Flute”. This perhaps is one of the most unique renditions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giI2uxwFRJg
The Oz doing their usual on a Labor premier.
Outrage at Qld Premier’s Covid vaccine scare
Epidemiologists and doctors accuse the Queensland government of undermining the national Covid-19 immunisation program.
”
Late Risersays:
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 11:28 pm
Ven, re Canadian deaths from heat versus covid. Possibly the better result is because people are actually doing something about covid.
”
And Climate change is not well managed by world governments right now. At the current trends the rise will be way more than the 1.5℃ rise at the end of the century even with net zero emissions target by 2050/2060. From the charts of temperature rise produced for year on year in SMH a couple of years ago, we may have already reached 0.8℃ rise .