Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Labor edges back into the lead on two-party preferred, but very little change overall from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor returning to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred after a tied result last time, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). Changes on leadership ratings are likewise very modest, with Scott Morrison up a point on approval to 55% and down two on disapproval to 41%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down two to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is barely changed at 53-33, compared with 53-32 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.

UPDATE (29/6): The Australian has published further results from the poll relating to COVID-19, including a fourth go at the question of how the Prime Minister has handled the situation. This series records a pattern of decline since his debut result of 85% good and 14% poor in April last year, to a current showing of 61% good (down nine over the last two months) and 36% bad (up nine points). Satisfaction with the government’s handling of the vaccine rollout is down three to 50% compared with two months ago, with dissatisfied up three to 46%. A new question on whether Labor would have done better turns up a neutral result, with 25% saying better, 36% no difference and 27% worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,469 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. DN: “You were, as I recall, one of those fascinated with NZ back then too.”

    I guess I should feel complimented that my posts are that memorable.

    Yes, I posted at the time that I thought NZ’s approach to lockdowns – which was significantly harsher than those of any Australian state or territory – was a bit over the top, given that they were in an excellent position to try to control the virus through border controls and contact tracing. For a time, their case numbers were increasing faster than ours, despite the harshness of their lockdown, and that led me and others to question the value of such a harsh lockdown.

    In the end, their approach worked, as did the less harsh approach adopted by Australian states. It’s really not possible in the end to assess whether their approach was better or worse than ours.

    I’m certainly not anti-Ardern or NZ Labour. I just don’t tend to follow the mob on PB and like to be a bit of a gadfly at times.

  2. More reason why the blame should be fairly put on Morrison , in this latest fiasco

    Morrison told people not to listen to Craig Kelly, as Kelly is not a doctor

    Morrison claimed the government and the public should listen to health advice from those in the profession and to ATAGI

    Morrison in a what is nothing but political point scoring , override his own medical advice for those under 60’s to get pfizer

    This should not have happen under a competent prime minister and government , who was actually serious in protecting people health

  3. The meme from the Premiers is that Morrison is the problem, not the solution.

    Good luck Scotty. You’re going to need it!

  4. Polling being a statistical sport has William Bowe offered an opinion on the recent Vaccine advice allowing for margin of error?

  5. Scott @ #2353 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 8:00 pm

    More reason why the blame should be fairly put on Morrison , in this latest fiasco

    Morrison told people not to listen to Craig Kelly, as Kelly is not a doctor

    Morrison claimed the government and the public should listen to health advice from those in the profession and to ATAGI

    Morrison in a what is nothing but political point scoring , override his own medical advice for those under 60’s to get pfizer

    This should not have happen under a competent prime minister and government , who was actually serious in protecting people health

    ATAGI’s advice has not changed in 4 months (despite having updated local data that confirms its initial analysis – which is of a greater age-specific risk that in the UK series). This is a purely political own goal on behalf of Scovid’s Spivs. He’s screwed the Beetroot.

  6. LVT: “Just like the most conservative Southern Republicans justified leaving the Democrats – “I didn’t leave the party, the party left me!”

    Possibly a bit unfair to equate Bob and Neville with the likes of George Wallace.

  7. Sceptic says:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 4:05 pm
    Windhover
    April 2021..
    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-uk-deaths-clots-az-jabs.html
    A total of 168 people have suffered rare blood clots after taking the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine in Britain, and 32 have died, the UK’s medicines regulator said Thursday.

    The figures for clots or “thromboembolic events” run up to April 14, by when 21.2 million people had received first doses of the vaccine, according to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA).

    https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/medicine/astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clots-statistics-percentage/

    Of 21.2 million doses of AstraZeneca given in the UK by April 14th 2021, there were 168 cases of blood clots, and 32 deaths resulting. That’s approximately 8 cases per million, or 0.0008%.

    I think you have decimal place in the wrong place.. by a long way!

    Edit
    Even the 0.0008% could be an exaggeration as early case were misdiagnosed & effect treatment is the norm.
    ………………………………………………….
    Sceptic, you have completely misunderstood my post.

    I actually said that the risk of AZ was “negligible”, which is a comment amply supported by your links. So we do not disagree.

    My point is that AZ 2 dose is 92% effective from preventing serious hospitalisation/death. That means, as I understand it, that 8 in 100 people who get AZ 2 dose AND get COVID will die etc.

    Otoh, only 4 in 100 people who get 2 dose Pfizer will die etc since it is 96% effective.

  8. casey briggs
    @CaseyBriggs
    NSW Health says actually Minister Victor Dominello *is* a close contact of Adam Marshall and should’ve been in isolation since Saturday.

    NSW Health gave him the wrong advice

  9. Victoria says:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 8:11 pm
    casey briggs
    @CaseyBriggs
    NSW Health says actually Minister Victor Dominello *is* a close contact of Adam Marshall and should’ve been in isolation since Saturday.

    NSW Health gave him the wrong advice

    Does that now translate to Gladys being a close contact of a close contact & should isolate?

    Nah

  10. meher baba says:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 8:07 pm
    LVT: “Just like the most conservative Southern Republicans justified leaving the Democrats – “I didn’t leave the party, the party left me!”

    Possibly a bit unfair to equate Bob and Neville with the likes of George Wallace.
    _______________________________________________
    Not an accurate comparison and somewhat of a misnomer – Wallace never left the Democrats and apologised for his racist campaigns (after he was shot and paralysed).

    Perhaps the assassin’s bullet mellowed him?

  11. The big difference with this outbreak is that the NSW Government is shit scared that the Covid is out of control. The arrogance and bluster is all they’ve got to temper a big problem.

  12. Every time Steven Mills is on the box he looks ruggedly disheveled .. slightly crumpled suit & skewed tie.. is he looking to be the next QLD premier as Justin Trudeau lookalike?

  13. “You were, as I recall, one of those fascinated with NZ back then too.”

    DisplayName

    I too remember with a certain amount of satisfaction, the right wing idiots on this blog telling us NZ wouldn’t get to zero. And the bullshit they spouted about the economucs of lockdowns. Etc etc.

    They change their tune. They never mention NZ. But they are incapable of learning.

    Reminds me of how Turnbull used NZ as an example – until they realised FTTN was a mistake and moved to FTTH. He never mentioned NZ from that day on.

  14. After throwing shade on Scotts yesterday- I couldn’t let this joke pass…

    ‘People of Scotts heritage living in Australia will be really happy at the moment, because they get to live in Loch Doune.’

  15. Cud Chewer

    Reminds me of how Turnbull used NZ as an example – until they realised FTTN was a mistake and moved to FTTH. He never mentioned NZ from that day on.

    John Key the uber banker came to power declaring Labour’s FTTH will be dead buried and cremated by him. Resemblance to local Liberals ended there. He immediately got the money men to run a ruler over the economics of FTTH v FTTN and when seeing the numbers that popped out loudly declared “Do it once, do it properly.” and full steam ahead with FTTH.

  16. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 8:22 pm
    So Col from Newcastle was shirty about the Pfizer allocation to his city, so he wrote to GladysB. He got two letters back… passing the buck is the Liberal way.
    _________
    How quaint you still write letters sprockets!

  17. Saw the Forster whale this afternoon from the Forster bridge and foreshore.

    It’s big tail was flapping, it was blowing “smoke”, and generally carrying on like a whale except the water was damn shallow where it has to go under the bridge to get back to sea.

    One observer told me that orcas (killer whales) had been sighted in the channel, leading to speculation that they are stalking the whale and any possible calf it might give birth to.

    Lots of dogs, a pie and sausage roll van, and a good eclectic collection of people from all walks of life were present. I even met one couple who claim to be Gladys Berejiklian’s coutouriers. I told them I didn’t like Gladys much. They seemed crestfallen. Lucky I didn’t let them know what I thought of Gladys’s wardrobe (ie. not a lot).

    I spoke to the guy from Whale Rescue who was on the eastern foreshore of the lake, under the pylons. He wouldn’t tell me anything.

    Looked at me as if I had a cheek to even make enquiries of him. I pointed to his hi-viz vest that had “Whale And Orca Rescue” emblazoned on it, saying: “Who ELSE should I ask?”

    He was a classic case of Napoleon Syndrome, a self-important, trumped up poseur who wasn’t going to let anyone else into his Secret Whale Business. “I’m not at liberty to disclose any information,” was his sanctimonious reply.

    Tosser.

    I hope the whale is OK. As I see it the water is only deep enough to get out under the bridge at high tide, but that also means it would have to swim out against the incoming current, which is famously strong at the change of tide. So she’ll have to judge it perfectly, right when the water at the bridge is deepest, and the outgoing (ebb tide) current is either starting up or neutral. She may be just confused. While we were there we saw her swim right up to the bridge twice, from at least 2 kilometres out, only to shy away at the last minute.

    But then, I’m no expert, not like the Whale And Orca Rescue guy. And he’s not letting anyone in on his secret.

    Oh… and the Anatolia Restaurant was open for Business As Usual. We somehow managed to get chatting with a bloke whose daughter works there, and was a witness on the night. He said she said the whole thing looked worse than it actually had been.

  18. Katharine Murphy..
    Then came Wednesday’s explosion. Instead of a dispute contained within the confines of the national cabinet about whether the prime minister should be encouraging young people to get AstraZeneca, Australians have now witnessed a visceral public brawl between the levels of government.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/30/there-was-no-argument-inside-national-cabinet-about-morrisons-astrazeneca-advice-because-he-didnt-flag-it

  19. Griff
    His objections initially were about the money. As with Libs here, way too much for sfa. Coming to power he discovered sure it cost money but it was a damned good investment and not doing it properly the first time would end up costing a truck load of money in the long run (Hello Mad Monk, Hello Lucien Aye) . Truffles and Abbott would have been told the same thing but they put politics and their careers ahead of national good.

  20. In terms of pandemic management, it is not just the number of clots that matters.
    The fact that the clots are concentrated in the Morrison Cabinet is what makes them really dangerous

  21. “ That means, as I understand it, that 8 in 100 people who get AZ 2 dose AND get COVID will die etc.

    Otoh, only 4 in 100 people who get 2 dose Pfizer will die etc since it is 96% effective.”

    The figures refer to hospitalisation and for some weird reason they conflated that with death in some reports.

    The death rates are much lower than that, which is not surprising as the death rate from Covid is about 2%.
    What it a bit surprising is that the hospitalisation rates for Covid after AZ or P are as high as 8 and 4% coz the hospitalisation rate without the vaccine is about 12% so plenty still get sick even if they have been vaccinated.

  22. Sohar @ #2346 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 7:56 pm

    Paul Bongiorno@PaulBongiorno · 3m
    OMG Tge Morrison government’s tactic to avoid @abc730 just back fired spectacularly .. Queensland’s @AnnastaciaMP didn’t miss them on vaccine and international quarantine failure.

    As I said earlier today. Don’t create a vacuum in politics, one of your political opponents to step in and fill it.

  23. rhwombat:

    deCerebrate venal Sinodinus thrombosis perhaps?

    Actually I think Uncle Arfur would be one of the very few in the Blue crew smart enough to deal with the Rona

  24. Q: 1.9 people out of 100,000 get a clot…..that is way too risky considering the immediate threat, and that Pfizer etc will be available in a couple of months.

    If we have say 4million in that age bracket, that’s 76 blood clots/ potentially deadly situations.

  25. Sceptic @ #2363 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 8:14 pm

    Victoria says:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 8:11 pm
    casey briggs
    @CaseyBriggs
    NSW Health says actually Minister Victor Dominello *is* a close contact of Adam Marshall and should’ve been in isolation since Saturday.

    NSW Health gave him the wrong advice

    Does that now translate to Gladys being a close contact of a close contact & should isolate?

    Nah

    We should be so lucky, lucky, lucky, lucky. Two weeks without Gladys. Looxury! 😀

  26. Torchbearer @ #2387 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 9:36 pm

    Q: 1.9 people out of 100,000 get a clot…..that is way too risky considering the immediate threat, and that Pfizer etc will be available in a couple of months.

    If we have say 4million in that age bracket, that’s 76 blood clots/ potentially deadly situations.

    That’s the problem, eh? Do you want to nominate your healthy 18-40 year old relative to be one of them?

  27. NSW Health gave him the wrong advice

    Ear muffs on. The howling from the Rupertariat will be deafening for such a blunder……………………won’t it ? As if.

  28. Fyi, I’m just back from spending an enjoyable 2 hours poking fun with my son at Ben Fordham on Australian Ninja Warrior. I love it!

  29. Dio I think the raw mortality rate for Covid is 3.5% although that doesn’t allow for unreported Covid cases so it’s likely less than that.
    Hard to believe the mortality rate for vaccinated people would be 4% and 8%. Better off not being vaccinated.

  30. It’s going to be hard to contain a breakout of the Delta virus in England. England have beaten Germany at the Euro 2020(1?) Soccer Cup. There’ll be some superspreading going on. 🙂

  31. davidwh
    Perhaps the numbers are head scratchers as ‘oldies’ would dominate the vaccinated cohort as they were in the first cab off the rank demographic. When covid breakthrough cases occur older/vulnerable people will be over represented and being older/vulnerable they will still be more likely to die than young people.

  32. A good point from Murpharoo that I hadn’t considered and another arrow in the vaccination stuff-up quiver:

    Some batches of AstraZeneca are also about to hit their use-by dates.

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