Essential Research and Redbridge Group Victorian poll

One pollster records nervous attitudes towards China, another a modest lead for the Labor government in Victoria.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll offers questions on foreign relations that include the finding that 51% believe Australia should become less close to China, down three points since December, with 24% believing relations should stay the same and only 12% believing they should get closer. By contrast, respondents were positive about relations with, in ascending order of enthusiasm, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Further questions record a surge for the influence of the United States since May last year and the intervening presidential election result.

An occasionally recurring question on climate change also found 56% believing it to be caused by human activity against 27% for normal fluctuation, suggesting a slight shift to skepticism since a few years ago. Forty-five per cent rate that Australia is not doing enough on climate change compared with 30% for enough and 12% for too much. Assessments on this question appear to have become more lenient since the onset of COVID-19, prior to which “not doing enough” was at upwards of 60%. A series of related questions record enthusiasm for renewable energy and a zero emissions target. The poll was conducted online from Wednesday to Sunday with a sample of 1087.

We also had a Victorian state poll yesterday in the Herald-Sun from Redbridge Group, which is run by former Labor operatives Simon Welsh and Kosmos Samaras. The primary votes are solidly better for the Coalition than last week’s Resolve Strategic poll in The Age, showing them with a lead of 41% to 37%, but Labor is nonetheless credited with a lead of 52.4-47.6 on two-party preferred, reflecting a Greens vote of 12% compared with Resolve Strategic’s 9%. These come with regional breakdowns that can be viewed here.

The poll also has a preferred premier question had Daniel Andrews at 42.4%, Michael O’Brien on 23.1% and neither on 28.2%; Andrews leads James Merlino 67.5% to 32.5% in a head-to-head question on preferred Labor leader, and O’Brien trails his predecessor Matthew Guy by 63-37. The poll was conducted June 12 to 15 from a sample of 1484.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,486 comments on “Essential Research and Redbridge Group Victorian poll”

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  1. Oakeshott Country

    For the record, Morrison and co have stuffed everything in their remit as far as covid is concerned.
    If it wasnt for the states, it would have been a rolling shit show here in Australia.

    Morrison should resign due to sheer incompetence. And he should take GHunt and RColbeck with him for starters.

  2. “In Sigmund Freud’s (weird) world, the id is the unconscious part of our psyche that responds instinctively to basic urges, needs and desires. It is selfish, wilful and operates on the pleasure principle which demands every wishful impulse be satisfied immediately, regardless of the consequences. Remind you of anyone?”, asks Chris Uhlmann as he writes about Barnaby Joyce’s resurrection.

    Isn’t it the case with most of humanity right now?
    We are in a position that we are because of that.

    It is just that Joyce and Nationals, Trump and Republican party, Murdoch press glorify and exemplify that.

  3. January 2020 pandemic declared.

    Nearly July 2021.

    Where are the dedicated quarantine facilities and where are the vaccines that we were promised.
    Morrison and co kept telling us we were are the front of the queue.

    I gather this was the queue to get sweet f@@k all.

  4. Ven

    ‘The Ultimate Test’ is being played between India and NZ in England. 2 out of 5 days were washed out because of rain and bad weather. 5th day of Test match

    Ain’t the British Summer grand 😆

  5. 10 News First Sydney
    #COVID19NSW: A Narellan Vale childcare centre has confirmed an infected child attended on Monday.

    Narellan Vale is from memory about 60km away from Bondi (near Campbelltown).
    Any guesses on todays number (and it must be >=7 for starters)…

  6. Dr Jeannette Young:

    I mean, it’s reassuring that it is one room to the room next door, and we’ve seen, unfortunately, that happen across the country in our hotels.

    It’s not “reassuring” – it shows a fundamental weakness in hotel quarantine. The occupied rooms need to be “socially distanced” to prevent door-to-door transmission.

  7. The interesting question is when Glads would consider a state lockdown.
    In the middle of the crossroads cluster the rumour was 250/day.
    My guess at the beginning of this year was 50 but I now think it might be 25.

    Otoh this cluster is 80% in the Eastern Suburbs and a lockdown of that area would almost be as easy as the Northern Beaches but with significantly more whinging

  8. David Crowe and Mike Foley report that Labor and the Greens have delivered a shock defeat to the federal government with a Senate vote to strike down plans to invest taxpayer funds in new fossil fuel technologies, taking advantage of the surprise absence of One Nation leader Pauline Hanson to win the outcome.

    I thought, according to Firefox2 and Quoll, that Labor was functionally incapable of working with The Greens to implement their awesome policies? 🙂

  9. Ain’t the British Summer grand

    Just like Sydney Summers except cold. You rarely get a Sydney Test without rain interruptions.

  10. … a lockdown of that area would almost be as easy as the Northern Beaches but with significantly more whinging

    I think that horse might have bolted, with contact spots in the CBD, Western Suburbs, Castle Hill (NW) and now near Campbelltown.

    EDIT: In fact, I would surmise that once the CBD is in play, any measures taken would have to involve the whole metropolitan area.

  11. Ven @ #49 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 9:30 am

    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 7:26 am

    You might have noticed the “” political advertising blitz by Michael McCormack’s Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Communications.

    (Well, it was his department on Monday morning.)

    Perhaps unsurprisingly, the advertising is a political con job.

    There is no boost in real terms in the federal government transport infrastructure investment.

    The much-announced “$110 billion infrastructure plan” is spread over 10 years, the latest iteration of a Coalition spin trick that’s been running for eight years while the state governments are doing most of the infrastructure spending anyway.

    This is what I meant I posted why is Pascoe not writing about the perversity of Australian political system because a perverse taxation and transfer system is usually a byproduct of perverse political system.

    When it comes to the Australian electorate, the Coalition operates towards it by following the principle of, ‘The Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind’.

  12. The idea that poor ol well intentioned environmentalists ScoMo and the Libs are being held back by the Nationals is nonsense. The Libs do more than their own fair share of holding back.

  13. Bert
    “Morning after the night before report on vaccination, bugger all. No sore arm, no headache, no nothing. All good.”

    I got my AZ jab Mon morning. I was all fine all dandy until midnight, when I got hit by an awful headache and a mild fever. Gave me a lousy night’s sleep. Small price to pay.

  14. Morrison said w’ were at the front of the queue you just need to keep in mind it was the royal ‘we’. And ‘we’ damned well were……

  15. Early in the pandemic, the SA Govt put quarantined people in a nearby caravan/cabin park, with caravans/cabins spread across a huge site near the sea…..seemed a pefect solution. We have plenty of them here in Adelaide / SA. Not sure why they stopped using it?

  16. Labor is making a mistake in continuing to McCormack was a good/decent bloke

    When McCormack was not only incompetent as a leader , he is a member of the government who lied about the vaccine rollout , and lied about every thing else this government has done and is doing

  17. ‘poroti says:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 9:57 am


    No sore arm, no headache, no nothing.

    Have you tried alcohol ? That will fix all those ‘complaints’ ‘
    But only as long as there is a carefully-calibrated rolling program of medication.

  18. ItzaDream @ #83 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 10:07 am

    C@tmomma @ #77 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 10:03 am

    Victoria @ #72 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 9:59 am


    For my youngest, Minestrone is the go in winter! Lol.

    I make a mean one of them too. 😀

    Ok, minestrone challenge on the agenda.

    This is the recipe I follow (except for the celery, not a fan):

    The Worcestershire Sauce and the Bacon seem to be the secret sauce ingredients.

  19. ‘Scott says:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 10:13 am

    Labor is making a mistake in continuing to McCormack was a good/decent bloke’
    Giving the dead decently in order to heighten the contrast with the living is worth a go, IMO.

  20. Scott

    Labor is making a mistake in continuing to McCormack was a good/decent bloke


    It’s politics. Labor’s approach is to make Joyce as black as possible (helped enormously by Joyce’s behaviour). By promoting the guy he rolled as being a ‘good/decent bloke’ is part of that strategy. The next step is to demonstrate how Joyce and his Nationals rump are running the government and have Spinocchio by the short and curlies.

    Showtime folks. Just hope that Albo can put on a decent performance.

  21. boerwar

    But only as long as there is a carefully-calibrated rolling program of medication.

    I rang the Dr about it last night and was told “Take two bottles and call me in the morning.”

  22. ‘poroti says:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 10:17 am


    But only as long as there is a carefully-calibrated rolling program of medication.

    I rang the Dr about it last night and was told “Take two bottles and call me in the morning.”

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