Spillover effects

Another Nationals leadership spill may be brewing, amid growing discontent with low-key incumbent Michael McCormack.

A big but not necessarily good weekend for former and current Nationals leaders:

• Moves to topple Michael McCormack as Nationals leader could come to a boil at today’s party room meeting, which The Australian reports could see a spill or no-confidence motion being moved against him. Barnaby Joyce, David Littleproud and Keith Pitt are all identified as potential successors, though presumably the latter is a long shot. The Australian reports Littleproud will not challenge McCormack directly, meaning he will only nominate if the motion passed is one of no confidence, which would exclude McCormack from contention. Samantha Maiden of News Corp says she “can count to ten votes” for Joyce, which is one fewer than he needs. A spill motion moved by Joyce’s backers in February last year was unsuccessful.

Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports former Nationals leader John Anderson has failed in his bid to return to politics, having lost a preselection vote for the New South Wales Senate ticket to former state party director Ross Cadell by a margin of 42 to 39.

On the other side of the fence:

• Labor’s national executive has endorsed former state party secretary Sam Rae as its candidate for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe, after a process which had been delayed by a Supreme Court injunction and may yet be overruled should the court strike down the national executive takeover of the state party’s preselection process. The Herald-Sun reports that Rae won 18 votes against three for rival candidate Sarah Carter, a former mayor of Maribyrnong.

• Labor’s leadership selection process in Tasmania, which was determined half by party members and half by state conference delegates, has been won by David O’Byrne, a powerful figure in the Left faction. Adam Langenberg of the ABC reports O’Byrne easily defeated rival candidate Shane Broad with 72% of the votes from the ballot of more than 1200 party members and 75% of the state conference votes. A similar process in New South Wales did not proceed after Michael Daley withdrew from contention, leaving Chris Minns to be elected unopposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,613 comments on “Spillover effects”

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  1. Steggall, Haines, Wilkie, and Bandt get it. Well done to the Greens and the crossbench for standing up to Labor and the Coalition’s destructive behaviour. We need more Greens and independents in the parliament and less environmental vandals from the duopoly.

  2. Classic blahblahist. Ooh. That hurts coming from the self appointed policeman. You’re still a fuckwit and that’s all you’ll ever be, given the time you spend here abusing people. Got some issues? I’d suggest plenty. Do you have problems getting real people to listen to you?

    Over and OUT

  3. Greensborough Growler @ #900 Tuesday, June 22nd, 2021 – 9:43 pm


    George is doing well.

    Pell’s victims. Not so well. Tough!

    But the Roman Paedophile Protection Society is also failing, so some good has come out of the whole disgusting mess.

    The rest of us have also been made aware of his supporters, so we now know what they are really like, and the sort of behaviour that they are prepared to condone and ignore, because of …..faith. A wondrous and terrible thing.

  4. Orbi,

    Buy yourself a mirror and work out where your real problems are.

    Fuckwits like you come and go on PB.

  5. Cud Chewer says:
    Tuesday, June 22, 2021 at 9:40 pm

    NSW has successfully managed community cases without shutting down the whole of Sydney let alone the whole of the state. They’ve done it before and they’ll likely do it again.

  6. Just as I was tempted to dip my toe in the water…

    I must say, I’m impressed by recon manipulating mundo and yabba into violent defense of the recorder.

    Well played, sir.

  7. Despite the spike in new cases in the UK the seven day moving average of daily deaths has barely changed. This indicates that the vaccination program has had a beneficial effect.

  8. Firefox2 says:
    Tuesday, June 22, 2021 at 10:21 pm

    And yet the 2PP has improved significantly for the LNP and fallen for the ALP. The trend is your friend and it is being friendly to the LNP at the moment. I’d put money on the ALP doing everything it can to avoid another lockdown in the event of new community transmission cases in Vic from now on.

  9. There is a significant difference between the torture of kids school based recorders and those of the professionals. It’s almost as if they are completely different instruments.

  10. I read entrails for a living*.

    Well, I am actually basically retired now, but when I see entrails, I cannot help but prognosticate over them.

    So, the “Junction**” cluster is the first cluster that has seriously shaken NSW health authorities.

    For the first time since March 2020, major Eastern suburbs health and education facilities have been told to assume that a Sydney-wide shut-down may happen with less than 24 hours notice.

    Reading between the entrails, the message is:

    Make sure you take your laptop home
    Make sure your lectures can be delivered online
    Make sure you / your group has a plan for feeding the weird cultures you are growing in your lab

    As I said, not seen for over a year.

    * Yep – I look at data, find the odd thing out, and then pursue the odd thing, bringing it together with everything I know, with a good mind for latching onto the “signal above the noise” to “do science”. By the “signal above the noise” I just mean that I have a knack of recognising the essentials.

    I am guessing that those “reading entrails” in ancient times were very percipient, and were forecasting obvious solutions.

    In earlier times (say medieval), my interests would have included an interest in plants, and their medicine uses, supported by evidence. I mean, who could possibly ignore the effect of willow bark (salicylic acid aka aspirin) for pain relief .

    I could have been a vestal virgin in Roman times, but would almost certainly have been burnt at the stake in Christian times if I had been born before the 20th century.

    ** the Junction Custer – Kerry Chant is obviously a local, as only us local call Bondi Junction “The Junction”.

  11. That polling doesn’t say anything new but the ALP would be hoping the Liberals don’t get their act together and that there are no more lockdowns because people are fed up with it.

  12. VicGovDH
    The Chief Health Officer has declared the following NSW Local Government Areas (LGAs) as red zones under Victoria’s travel permit system, effective at 1:00am 23 June:

    •City of Sydney
    •Canada Bay
    •Inner West

  13. Steve777
    Yep and their day is coming because many people are fed up with Morrison and i’m getting a sense that the electorate is pissed off in a way i have not seen for a long time.

  14. Like Firefox I am disappointed once again by the decision to endorse the Beetaloo project by Liberal and Labor parties. One party is corrupt; the other are cowards afraid to fight on any issue except industrial relations. Perhaps they have forgotten how to?

    The internal defenders of Labor will say this is a sign of Labor’s tactical genius at reading the electorate, not weakness. If Labor wins the next election I will be happy to be wrong. If not, those claims of tactical genius will be looking a little strained after 3 defeats in a row.

    Meanwhile they will call me woke and a closet Green, and decry my failure to defend working class battlers on $150K+. I suppose that makes me the spoiled elitist here…

    If Labor won’t fight on environment, or immigration, and confines industrial relations action to subsets of workers who are deemed working class by virtue of their past history rather than present income, how do they expect a majority to vote for them? Too hard for me to work out right now. Night all.

  15. Socrates
    The ALP’s problem with immigration is the metro seats that look critical to the next election are also electorates that support immigration so its hard to see the ALP winning Chisholm and Higgins if they oppose immigration.

  16. Greensborough Growler @ #919 Tuesday, June 22nd, 2021 – 10:21 pm


    Happy for Yabba to have a free swing.

    Just stick to your faith, if it somehow makes you able to feel better about yourself.

    I’ll stick to Bach, Vivaldi, Beethoven, Brahms and Mahler, and many others. Much more real inspiration, plus emotional and spiritual support, than Pell and the RPPS any day, year or century IMHO.

    Each to his own, though.

  17. It is a very odd time of night for vic health to release this directive which is virtually effective within a few hours.
    They know something, we dont yet.

  18. lizzie @ #1164 Tuesday, June 22nd, 2021 – 10:58 am

    Barnaby says it’s all abut personal freedoms, and only LNP will provide that.

    “We need to ensure that we give our children and grandchildren the strength and the liberties and the capacity to say what they like and the capacity to be who they want to be. And the Australian people have to make a decision about who can deliver that. Is that the Labor Party or the Liberal National Coalition?


    So, why have so many Coalition members taken defamation action against people saying what they like?

  19. lizzie @ #1164 Tuesday, June 22nd, 2021 – 10:58 am

    Barnaby says it’s all abut personal freedoms, and only LNP will provide that.

    “We need to ensure that we give our children and grandchildren the strength and the liberties and the capacity to say what they like and the capacity to be who they want to be. And the Australian people have to make a decision about who can deliver that. Is that the Labor Party or the Liberal National Coalition?

    When the BeetRooter talks about “our children” he’s not talking about yours…

  20. Am I the only one wondering how it is that Firefox has managed to access graphs and information from a subscriber only page of the Herald Sun?

  21. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Tuesday, June 22, 2021 at 11:27 pm

    With freedom comes responsibility. You don’t get to pick and choose which laws apply to you and which don’t.

  22. “Am I the only one wondering how it is that Firefox has managed to access graphs and information from a subscriber only page of the Herald Sun?”



  23. yabba : are you familiar with this resource ? the international music score project :- https://imslp.org/wiki/Main_Page

    free out of copyright music scores, scanned to pdf format by volunteers. orchestral, instrumental, chamber music, choral, piano, opera and more. full sets of bach, vivaldi, beethoven, brahms and mahler, bartok, debussy, elgar, rvw, holst, etc. :- 585,000 music scores as of 17 june this year

    the composers category top level, is here :- https://imslp.org/wiki/Category:Composers

    you can also search by instrumentation/genre, for example : the top page of the scores/parts for music featuring recorder (289 hits), is here :- https://imslp.org/wiki/Special:GenreSearch/recorder

    sorry if you’re already aware of it, but if you aren’t there may be something there for you and/or your ensemble. -a.v.

  24. Firefox2says:
    Tuesday, June 22, 2021 at 11:58 pm

    “Am I the only one wondering how it is that Firefox has managed to access graphs and information from a subscriber only page of the Herald Sun?”



    You’ve been exposed as a closet Tory.

  25. Firefox, with the

    New poll on Vic State voting intention:

    I can think of a few TISM songs that could take the piss out of the geography that is non-existent in that poll. Does “east” start at Merri Ck? The Yarra river? The 86 tram route?

    Melbourne is sliced up five ways for upper house elections, and then there’s no comparison to the last election. That 1% for the Nats in Melbourne (when they don’t even run there) is only fudging the numbers further.

    If he Greens have gone from 10% at the election to polling 8% then 12%, it looks like 10%-ish to me. It’s not a surge (sorry FF), and the last one was’t a collapse (less sorry, the usual suspects). I wish them good luck, as long as it wasn’t that guy who bragged that he’d never been to zone 2. Watch out for the microparties. (If I lived there I might vote for the Socialists, who seem to have their shit together better than trots normally do.)

  26. good one, Dandy Murray, everyone should know about it who loves classical music. i don’t remember how i found it but i couldn’t do without it now. no gershwin, though, or copland, bernstein, henze,
    rodrigo, shoshtakovich, britten, but full sets of sibelius, for example, and dvorak, two recent favorites/raves of denizens of this site. -cheers, a.v.

  27. Cud Chewersays:
    Tuesday, June 22, 2021 at 10:05 pm

    June 17 and 19 – zero cases.


    21 June – 125.

  28. Arthur (and all of the usual suspects):

    You’ve been exposed as a closet Tory.

    I reckon different. Firefox has learnt a lesson from Sun Tzu:

    Know your enemy.

  29. Dandy

    Years ago when Roy and HG were doing their comedy duo radio show they ran a series of fake ads for CDs titled “fucked up classics” volume xx..

    Featured where the sound of exquisite classical instrumentation, rudely interrupted at exactly the wrong moment by bad notes, construction machinery and so on.. The timing was perfect! If only these CDs had been actually published 🙂

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