Four entirely unrelated items of electoral news after a week without new poll results:
• The Australian Electoral Commission has approved the registration of a party called the New Liberals. In doing so it rejected a 55-page Liberal Party submission that included CT Group polling to support its argument that voters would confuse the new party with the old. The judgement cited the similarly unsuccessful bid to deny Liberals for Forests in 2001, in which it was determined that a ban on words as generic as “liberal” and “labour” demanded “clear language” from the Electoral Act – although it conceded the name New Liberals landed “much closer to the line”. The Howard government’s dissatisfaction with the 2001 ruling resulted in a new clause targeting names implying a “connection or relationship” with an existing party, but the AEC has ruled this doesn’t catch the New Liberals. The judgement also expressed reservations about the CT Group survey, in terms implying a dubious attitude to much of the modern practice of opinion polling. The Liberals can now apply for an internal review, followed by an appeal to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal.
• The count for the Upper Hunter by-election has been finalised, confirming a 5.8% winning margin for Nationals candidate David Layzell and a two-party swing to the Nationals of 3.3%. Antony Green crunches the ballot paper data (a welcome feature of NSW election counts) to determine how each candidate’s preferences divided between Nationals and Labor, which in aggregate was very similar to the 2019 election.
• Resolution also for the Tasmanian state election, which had a post-script after elected Adam Brooks was charged with firearms offences the day after his election was declared, prompting him to decline his seat. This was resolved through Tasmania’s recount procedure for lower house vacancies using the ballots that elected the outgoing member, which naturally went overwhelmingly to other Liberals. The result was a win for Felix Ellis, a member of the previous parliament who initially failed to win re-election, finishing the distribution with 5881 votes (53.4%) to Stacey Sheehan’s 5132 (46.6%). The party numbers remain Liberal 13, Labor nine and Greens two, with one independent.
• I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday on the recently launched Australian Polling Council’s new code of conduct. Both council and code draw inspiration from the British Polling Council, though to my own disappointment it does not follow the British example in requiring members to publish full breakdowns and weighting bases for each poll. However, pollsters will be required to publish a range of other detail that is often absent from media outlets’ reporting of polls they commission, including margin of error calculations that account for demographic imbalances in the sample. The nine pollsters who are members of the council include most of the familiar names, but not Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan.
Steve777
Well that is pretty easy to do.
Edit
TPOF says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 7:49 pm
“They are not going to do it. THEY ARE DOING IT!”
How?
____________________________________
This:
@drkerrynphelps tweets
This is a shambles
3 weeks to go and doctors don’t know what the 900 Medicare changes/fund rebates will be, so patients cannot give informed financial consent
#Medicare review changes: gap payments for medical procedures set to skyrocket
#auspol #health
______________________________
Gross incompetence or deliberate destruction of Medicare. Take your pick.
Basically they have worked out that if they don’t fucking care, they can destroy Medicare most easily.
Greens theme song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S04ZY4IWTjI
Green Machinesays:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 6:54 pm
Well you won’t be able to vote for the Greens then.
They recognise in their policies that coal is still needed as we transition towards renewables.
Looks like that with the Medicare cuts the government is looking to pay for its phase 3 tax cuts.
If there is one thing that gives me concern about a Trump return in 2024, it’s that people can’t stop talking about him*. That same frustration was what made me suspect he would win back in 2016.
*(Talking generally – specifically on the American media, not about people here.)
If Donald Trump is alive in 2024, he will be the republican nominee.
If Minns aspires to be Keating, I’m alright with that, absent his, Keating’s, bravado:
[‘When then-Prime Minister Paul Keating dedicated his 1993 election victory to the nation’s “true believers”, a very young Chris Minns was listening.
To living rooms across Australia, the Labor legend spoke of imagination and faith, good beliefs and opportunity for all.
“I was 13 and Keating pulled it off when no one thought he would. The vision, the charisma, was one in a million. I’ve been pretty hooked ever since,” Mr Minns said.
“Keating talked about the art of the possible. I found everything about him inspiring and it made you like politics, not recoil.”]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/who-is-chris-minns-nsw-labor-s-new-leader-wants-to-be-the-next-keating-20210605-p57ydd.html
Graphic in SMH: https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-19-global-vaccine-tracker-and-data-centre-20210128-p56xht.html
About 18% of Australians have received their first Covid vaccine shot.
Less than 1.5% are fully vaccinated. That’s after 106 days.
And no one knows what’s going on, least of all GPs. There is no apparent plan, at least none that has been made public.
Negligence and blithering incompetence, as the headlines would be screaming daily had Rudd, Gillard, Shorten or Albanese been Prime Minister.
Scommo cuts to medicare, not really a church person.
Lizzie says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 7:35 pm
ABC news just reported that the highset number of deaths in Oz are by suicide.
As must people die from natural causes there must be some criteria to select the set from which the highest number comes from. Probable people in the healthy range 15 to 44.
Steve777 says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 8:24 pm
Graphic in SMH: https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-19-global-vaccine-tracker-and-data-centre-20210128-p56xht.html
About 18% of Australians have received their first Covid vaccine shot.
Less than 1.5% are fully vaccinated. That’s after 106 days.
———————————–
Joe Biden’s first 100 days… was 200 million vaccinated.
———————————–
China is vaccinating 20 million per DAY, would cover Australia, NZ, Tasmania and associated Islands within 2 days.
Business has urged the Morrison government to cut Australia’s 30 per cent company tax rate after the world’s biggest developed economies agreed to a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15 per cent, as part of a crackdown on the tech giants.
A deal struck at the Group of Seven finance ministers on the weekend will force large multinationals to pay tax in countries they sell their goods and services in, most notably tech giants such Google and Facebook.
However, tax experts cautioned the agreement was unlikely to deliver a windfall to Australia, raising just hundreds of millions of dollars extra for the federal budget annually.
The G7 agreement will go to next month’s G20 finance ministers’ meeting in Italy, which includes Treasurer Josh Frydenberg as well as leaders from China, India, Russia and Brazil.
It will then feed into the broader deliberations the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development is co-ordinating with 139 countries for a global tax regime.
“Australia welcomes the commitment from G7 nations to agree a globally consistent approach to the tax challenges posed by the digitalisation of the economy. Australia will remain an active and constructive participant in these OECD-led discussions as we have done so throughout,” Mr Frydenberg said.
But business groups seized on the G7 deal to call on the Morrison government to cut company taxes here.
“At double our 30 per cent rate, a global minimum of 15 per cent leaves Australia severely exposed in its ability to attract global capital,” Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott said.
“That means we run the risk that investments in major projects and the new industries that create new jobs will simply flow to other countries. Australia needs a permanently competitive tax system.
”If the Parliament still isn’t prepared to give Australia a globally competitive tax rate it can at least put in place the right tax incentives, a workplace relations system that creates jobs, a modern skills system that prepares workers for the future and it can act to axe the red tape that makes it harder to do business.”
Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Willox said the G7 agreement was “an opportunity to have a long-delayed discussion in Australia about business taxes”.
“Already our relatively high 30 per cent corporate tax rate and our comparatively stringent transfer pricing and thin capitalisation rules combine to deliver one of the very highest ratios of business income tax to GDP in the OECD,” he said.
“With the importance of business investment to building on the current recovery and to lifting productivity growth now well recognised, we should use this opportunity to examine how well our tax arrangements are achieving fairness and supporting further economic and social progress.
“We should welcome attempts to curb excessive tax competition between countries and aggressive tax minimisation by individuals and businesses. Clearly, Australia should ensure it collects a fair amount of tax on the business income of domestic and overseas-owned companies.”
While G7 members settled on a global floor of a 15 per cent tax rate, it has already come under attack from both sides of the debate.
Ireland, whose tax rate of just 12.5 per cent has long made it a destination for firms seeking to minimise their tax, said any agreement had to work for big and small countries.
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire is pushing for a higher global minimum tax rate. The Biden administration, meanwhile, is committed to lifting the US corporate tax rate from 21 per cent to 28 per cent.
Well there is your choice, tax cuts for the rich or medicare.
Zerlo
Destroying medicare would bring us in line with china. I assume you would support this.
Joe Biden’s first 100 days… was 200 million vaccinated.
Divide by 13 to get Australian equivalent —> ~ 15 million.
It really is a major stuff up. That March deadline the PM boasted about is long in the rearview mirror, never was going to be achieved.
Meanwhile Australia continues to slip further behind the rest of the world.
After having received an Ancestory.com gift three years or so ago, tonight I received a match, a possible 3rd cousin living in Edinburgh.
frednk says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 8:40 pm
Zerlo
Destroying medicare would bring us in line with china. I assume you would support this.
Stupid comment, dumb ass. more like bringing inline with America.
Attempting to destroy medicare would for sure get the Morrison’s government vaccine stuff up off the front page.
Clearly hand wringing over the people who can’t get the vaccine who don’t want it if the could wasn’t enough.
Adam Bandt should switch to a Liberal held seat, like Kooyong or Flinders. The Greens have the opportunity to rid the nation of the LNP climate science deniers by deploying their gun vote winner in the broader progressive cause
BK at 7:42 pm
You lucky bastard. Many jealousy rays heading in your direction :). I ‘discovered’ Deming late in life and it was a case of “Where have you been all my life ? ” 🙂
Crime agencies believe Qantas has been infiltrated by bikies and other organised crime groups to facilitate drug importation and other activities that pose a risk to national security.
A classified federal law enforcement intelligence operation code-named Project Brunello has determined that a “significant” number of Qantas staff – up to 150 – are linked to criminality. The operation describes suspected wrongdoing that is “serious and represents a very high threat to the Australian border”.
Official sources briefed on the findings but unable to speak publicly due to confidentiality requirements said among the most concerning of the suspected “trusted insiders” within Qantas is a Comanchero motorcycle gang affiliate who is linked to international drug cartel boss Hakan Ayik. This person is working in a mid-level managerial position at Qantas’ Sydney airport operations and the intelligence suggests he has recruited criminals into the airline to help import narcotics.
The revelations raise serious questions for both the airline and the federal government, and come after historical inquiries have warned of evolving gaps in port and airport security. They also raise questions for federal Labor, which is opposing transport security laws proposed by the Coalition and backed by police that would enable criminal intelligence to be used to stop workers receiving aviation and maritime government security clearances.
Qantas Group chief security officer Luke Bramah told The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald and 60 Minutes that “given we follow all of the government’s vetting procedures, we find these claims disturbing. We have not been advised of any current investigations of Qantas Group employees involved in organised crime. If concerns are raised regarding any of our employees, we will actively support their investigation and take appropriate action.”
Zerlo says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 8:43 pm
frednk says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 8:40 pm
Zerlo
Destroying medicare would bring us in line with china. I assume you would support this.
Stupid comment, dumb ass. more like bringing inline with America.
No Zerlo that is the fact. China does not have a universal health system. But then you have never been there to find out have you. You still think the little red book is what it is all about.
At double our 30 per cent rate, a global minimum of 15 per cent leaves Australia severely exposed in its ability to attract global capital,” Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott said.
“That means we run the risk that investments in major projects and the new industries that create new jobs will simply flow to other countries. Australia needs a permanently competitive tax system.
”If the Parliament still isn’t prepared to give Australia a globally competitive tax rate it can at least put in place the right tax incentives, a workplace relations system that creates jobs, a modern skills system that prepares workers for the future and it can act to axe the red tape that makes it harder to do business.”
Yeah well they would say that wouldn’t they.
Self-interested bleating. Ignore.
Mavis at 8:41 pm
The castle ?
So the Greens think they own Melbourne. What arrogance!
frednk says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 8:46 pm
Duh, of course China doesn’t have universal medicare, infact most of the planet doesn’t, your point doesn’t stand, it’s mute, you are just racist as you are singling out your anti-china routine in every post.
But ignoring other countries.
Oh btw, Australia doesn’t have Universal Medicare, it is still cherry picked medicare, and has been for a long time.
Every single year, medicare gets care, pbs gets cut, health gets cut.
So frednk, your rant against china is just purely racist.
Zerlo says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 8:52 pm
..
Duh, of course China doesn’t have universal medicare, infact most of the planet doesn’t, your point doesn’t stand, it’s mute, you are just racist as you are singling out your anti-china routine in every post.
…
So frednk, your rant against china is just purely racist.
Pointing out China doesn’t have universal health care and thus you would probable support the destruction of the Australasian system is raciest?
You really are a sad little ant aren’t you.
Zerlo says:
Who cares!?!
We know his game. He refuses to resile from his full-throated support of the CCP and twists any data he can lay his hands on to show the West up in a poor light in comparison. That’s all he ever does. Day after day after day. Same shit different day. No one will ever convince him he is wrong because that’s not what he’s here for. So why even bother engaging? Haven’t you got something better to do, like collect your belly button lint in a jar? You’ll at least achieve something that way.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/eu-ambassador-uk-says-trust-is-low-ahead-brexit-talks-2021-06-06/
The European Union’s ambassador to the United Kingdom said on Sunday that levels of trust between the two powers was low ahead of Brexit talks on the Northern Ireland protocol this week, but added that he was confident it would improve.
“The levels of trust are low right now,” Joao Vale de Almeida told Times Radio.
“We ultimately need to re-establish a minimum level of trust that allows us to find solutions, but this being said…I remain confident that we can get there.”
—————
UK is a ticking time bomb.
I wonder how many more doses they have tucked down the back of the seat ?
.
.
Won’t affect NSW supply’: Victoria to get more than 300,000 extra vaccine doses
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria-gets-extra-vaccine-doses-without-taking-away-from-anybody-20210606-p57ykc.html
frednk says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 8:55 pm
Zerlo says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 8:52 pm
..
Duh, of course China doesn’t have universal medicare, infact most of the planet doesn’t, your point doesn’t stand, it’s mute, you are just racist as you are singling out your anti-china routine in every post.
…
So frednk, your rant against china is just purely racist.
Pointing out China doesn’t have universal health care and thus you would probable support the destruction of the Australasian system is raciest?
You really are a sad little ant aren’t you.
——————————————–
Nah, you are sad little online bully.
——————————————–
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 8:55 pm
Zerlo says:
Who cares!?!
We know his game. He refuses to resile from his full-throated support of the CCP and twists any data he can lay his hands on to show the West up in a poor light in comparison. That’s all he ever does. Day after day after day. Same shit different day. No one will ever convince him he is wrong because that’s not what he’s here for. So why even bother engaging? Haven’t you got something better to do, like collect your belly button lint in a jar? You’ll at least achieve something that way.
——————————————————————
cry like a little baby who needs his mother’s milk.
Try harder next time.
Oh and your little ‘support of the CCP ‘ which i deny at all costs because you know, little shits like yourself don’t have enough life experience.
Cat
Stir him up a bit and he is entertaining.
poroti says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 8:57 pm
How many more hidden vaccines do the federal government have?
Bit like their trickle down economics.
Now like their trickle down vaccinations.
“Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 7:47 pm
Just heard from one of my Liberal contacts that @GregHuntMP thinks he’s in line for a Nobel Peace Prize. Wow!— Paul Bongiorno (@PaulBongiorno) June 6, 2021
”
Like Trump believed about himself. 🙂
Seriously though, what is the reason for that alleged thinking?
frednk says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 8:59 pm
Cat
Stir him up a bit and he is entertaining.
———–
You call this entertaining? At least get a life first. I call It online bullying.
frednk @ #1334 Sunday, June 6th, 2021 – 8:38 pm
Labor must be thinking they have been smacked in the arse by a rainbow. That’s the beginning, middle and end of their election campaign right there.
Labor will reverse the Morrison government’s cuts to Medicare.
Scott Morrison MUST be losing it. Normally a canny political operator would get the election out of the way first, THEN bring in the cuts.
The commercial TV stations are all over it already. And Scott Morrison is out of the country. If mark Butler and Anthony Albanese don’t jump up and down about this every day from now until the election, then they’ve got rocks in their heads.
frednk @ #1354 Sunday, June 6th, 2021 – 8:59 pm
😀 Like a performing seal.
This vanity fair piece is interesting and goes into a deep dive re wuhan lab leak theory
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins
So, Newspollerama tonight?
Zerlo says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 9:00 pm
…
You call this entertaining? At least get a life first. I call It online bullying.
You poor sensitive soul. Is no one taking your ranting post to heart. Poor diddums.
Like it or not mate a lot of people think Xi is a dictator and a lot of them live in China. But you have never been there have you.
Thanks for that, Vic. 🙂
Federal Government bringing the scare campaign again:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-cartel-of-australian-mr-bigs-responsible-for-1-5b-drug-imports-20210603-p57xp0.html
https://www.smh.com.au/national/qantas-infiltrated-by-organised-criminals-says-intelligence-report-20210603-p57xp2.html
During the election year period.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 9:03 pm
frednk @ #1354 Sunday, June 6th, 2021 – 8:59 pm
Cat
Stir him up a bit and he is entertaining.
Like a performing seal.
Ya that is about it. One post and I am a raciest, two I am bullying. Better leave it there I think.
frednk says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 9:04 pm
Zerlo says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 9:00 pm
…
You call this entertaining? At least get a life first. I call It online bullying.
You poor sensitive soul. Is no one taking your ranting post to heart. Poor diddums.
Like it or not mate a lot of people think Xi is a dictator and a lot of them live in China. But you have never been there have you.
I spent 2 years in China, and have met many many people in China, I did quote a travel through China, Japan and other Asian countries, many who I continue to talk with on WeChat.
Once again you are fucking wrong about people in China is a dictator, and actually have a high approval rating of their government from outside polling.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/07/long-term-survey-reveals-chinese-government-satisfaction/
Many foreigners (a long list of Youtubers as well) who also live in China disagree with you.
But you think I never went to China? I think Frednk is you never been outside of Australia, letalone China.
Which is Why I posted a question on this very blog – who has actually been to China? the other night, I guess you missed the memo.
But you know Freddy. If you want to start a argument about something, you should experience it first hand, not use 4th hand information.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/06/04/old-new-borrowed-and-blue/comment-page-31/#comment-3621569
Keating and the worship thereof were some of the reasons that the ALP lost in 2019 (at Commonwealth level).
Keating and the worship thereof (particularly the latter) were behind the disastrous franking credits policy.
Keating`s interview at the ALP campaign launch, where he suggested the ALP should sack senior people in the intelligence services over their attitude to China (among other things), was bad for the ALP. The ALP should never invite Keating to another campaign launch because of that interview.
One does despair of the ALP. In SA we still don’t have a candidate for ultra-marginal Boothby even though we knew months ago that sitting member Flint will be vacating it. The Libs are already uniting behind their candidate.
Sturt has a weak Liberal member but is never taken seriously by Labor.
Spence is a Labor stronghold. Nick Champion is dropping down to state parliament. Spence is the type of seat that should have a potential minister in it but instead the Labor Right is looking at a union organizer. Doubt he’s a Ben Chifley. John Dawkins’ daughter Alice is another contender. She has talent but will find it hard to get the numbers.
Unfortunately, Labor actually voted with the Liberals to give tax cuts to the rich. They also teamed up to leave people on JobSeeker in poverty.