More month of May miscellany

Preselection challenges aplenty against federal Liberals from New South Wales; a potential second Labor membership ballot as the party seeks a new leader in New South Wales; and a state by-election looms in Queensland.

There has been an outbreak of preselection challenges against federal Liberal incumbents in New South Wales, which would appear to be the fruit of new preselection rules that put more power in the hands of the party rank-and-file. However, the branch has not been so democratised as to deny the possibility of federal intervention, which Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports is likely to be invoked by the Prime Minister to protect the incumbents.

• Environment Minister Sussan Ley faces a challenge in her rural seat of Farrer from Christian Ellis, whose conservative credentials extend to an effort to expel Malcolm Turnbull from the Liberal Party after he published his autobiography last year. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Ley has complained of “outsiders” descending upon her electorate with “city-based factional branch stacking” and “a toxic culture which isn’t about the policies or the candidate”.

• Further challenges are brewing against two leading factional powerbrokers: Alex Hawke of the centre right, from conservative-aligned army colonel Michael Abrahams; and Trent Zimmerman of the moderate faction, from both Hamish Stitt, a conservative barrister, and Jess Collins, a member of the centre right.

• In the marginal Sydney seat of Reid, moderate-aligned Fiona Martin faces a challenge from sports administrator Natalie Baini. Apparently at an earlier stage of gestation are potential challenges to Bennelong MP John Alexander from Gisele Kapterian, former chief-of-staff to Michaelia Cash; and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, whose Senate seat is reportedly being eyed by conservative colleague Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW.

• One challenge that will not proceed is the one said to have been of “most concern” to senior Liberals in a report by Sarah Martin of The Guardian. Melissa McIntosh, a member of the centre right faction who won the key seat of Lindsay from Labor in 2019, was said to have been under serious pressure from Mark Davies, Penrith councillor and husband of state Mulgoa MP Tanya Davies, having “lost control of her branches to the conservative faction”. However, Clare Armstrong of News.com.au reports the conservatives have “done a deal to drop the challenge”, the terms of which are unclear.

Preselections elsewhere:

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports that candidates for Labor’s preselection in the Adelaide seat of Spence include Matt Burnell, an official with the Right-aligned Transport Workers Union, and Alice Dawkins, who works with “a consulting firm specialising in Asian strategic engagement” and is the daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The safe Labor seat in northern Adelaide will be vacated at the election by Nick Champion’s move to state politics.

• A Liberal preselection last weekend for the Adelaide seat of Boothby was won by Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned management consultant and medical researcher. Swift was chosen ahead of conservative rival Leah Blythe, who had the backing of outgoing member Nicolle Flint.

• The Tasmanian seat of Lyons will be contested for the Liberals by Susie Bower, Meander Valley councillor and chief executive of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone. Bower was a candidate for Lyons at the recent state election, but polled last out of the six Liberal candidates with 3.5% of the vote. Lyons could potentially have joined Bass and Braddon as a Liberal gain at the 2019 election if not for the mid-campaign disendorsement of the party’s candidate, Jessica Whelan.

Other news:

• Jodi McKay’s resignation as New South Wales Labor leader on Friday potentially sets up a second membership ballot for the party to go with the one that will choose Rebecca White’s successor in Tasmania. This depends on whether former leader Michael Daley puts his name forward in opposition to Chris Minns, who would appear to be the clear favourite. Today’s Sun-Herald reports that head office would prefer that Minns take the position unopposed so as to avoid “an expensive ballot of rank-and-file members, which would take weeks”. However, a tweet by Daley yesterday suggested he was not of a mind to oblige them.

• Labor MP Duncan Pegg announced his resignation from the Queensland parliament early this week after a terminal cancer diagnosis. This will lead at some point to a by-election for his southern Brisbane seat of Stretton, which Pegg retained by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. Such has been the electoral record of opposition parties recently that one might have thought the Liberal National Party would sit this one out, but they have in fact jumped into the fray with the endorsement of Jim Bellos, a police officer and former Queenslander of the Year. The Courier-Mail reports the front-runner for Labor preselection is James Martin, an electorate officer to Pegg.

• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has a piece in The Conversation on the apparent trend of non-university educated whites abandoning parties of the centre left in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia.

Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports the Liberal party room was told this week that the election would be held next year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,927 comments on “More month of May miscellany”

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  1. borewar
    “symptomatic of a loss of morale, and a loss of command and control.”
    No it is symptomatic of the SAS having no morals or ethics, nothing to do with morale. They failed themselves & humanity.
    It has nothing to do with lack of clear goals or the 4th estate, they were responsible for the war crimes no one else to blame.

  2. Dutton gagging debate today after Albo’s SSO accusing The Coalition of stuffing up the vaccine rollout tells you all you need to know about the truth.

    If they’d run a successful vaccination program they would have welcomed Albo’s accusations with open arms.

  3. I urge all Bludgers to kick some of the ready into William’s can.

    In Bludger posts we have contumely, personal fights, insanity, humour, trolling, a modicum of informative and considered posts, some top quality psephing but most of all a wide range of views.
    In an age when the tribes value conformity over diversity, this ought to be treasured even if all the posters who disagree with me are wRONg.

    There is a clear pattern of defamation actions which might be interpreted as having the incidental impact of reducing diversity of opinion. We have just had Kroger have a go at Ita and Tudge have a go at ‘woke’ universities. We have the objective of targeting charities so that if they say what they actually think they will no longer be able to help the people they are trying to help. Then there is the way in which the chook feed is being used to control individual journalists. There is the way in which public monies are being fed into the maws of private MSM owners who are onside.

    All this is as thorough as I have ever seen it in Australia. What we can do at an individual level is to fight each other like buggery on Bludger and to kick some of the ready into William’s kitty.

  4. WB,

    Thanks for that.

    I’m happy to confirm I pay $1 a day to the blog and will continue to do so.

    I will contribute a further $300 to help you in this time of need.

    I don’t put this out for any other reason than to send other bludgers a message of what a fair and reasonable contribution might be.

    Posters have their own situations to consider. However, it’s time for everyone to make a reasonable contribution to make this site viable.

    Cheers

  5. Thanks, Cud.
    Have had my initial Astra vaccination (without any side effects) and will ask my GP for Pfizer when my booster is due in two weeks time.
    Armed with info from your links, hope she’ll agree.
    If she says no, I’ll want to know why. ( Could be a Govt directive to only have AZ for over 65s ?)

  6. Sceptic

    It has nothing to do with lack of clear goals or the 4th estate, they were responsible for the war crimes no one else to blame.

    Blame/responsibility is something that accumulates, rather than gets passed on. It’s entirely possible for there to be simultaneous related failures of individuals, groups, systems, and leadership on the ground in Afghanistan and back here in Australia.

    If there are failures at multiple levels, they need to be identified, and that does not excuse failures at an individual level.

  7. Whether or not Monday’s scheduled “Four Corners” expose goes to air with evidence that Morrison’s allegedly connected in some way to a QAnon conspiracist is mostly irrelevant. What’s relevant is the public perception that Aunty’s been nobbled, that Morrison has something to hide, and that he would be prima facie embarrassed by its broadcast.

    I’m confident that Biden won’t be briefed on the matter before the G7 meet in Cornwall on June 10. And I wouldn’t put it past this sham of a government to introduce “D” Notices given Dutton’s on the warpath.

  8. Mavis.

    Crikey is out promoting their story on a Qanon link.

    So Crikey is willing to take the legal risk. Edit: And benefitting from the Streisand effect.

  9. Amy Remeikis Retweeted
    Rashida Yosufzai
    @Rashidajourno
    Defence Minister Peter Dutton does not want the ADF “to be distracted by things that have happened in the past” (war crime allegations in Afghanistan)

  10. And there we have an ethical, moral and leadership failure of our defence minister.

    Maybe he should consider treating our defence forces as the professionals they are rather than pretending they are babies to be molly-coddled.

    Any professional that can’t handle a little professional learning should probably find another profession.

    It is not respectful to treat grown people as incapable of taking responsibility for, handling and learning from failure.

  11. Defence Minister Peter Dutton does not want the ADF “to be distracted by things that have happened in the past” (war crime allegations in Afghanistan)

    _____________________________

    Well let’s save half a billion dollars by canning the War Memorial Museum extension!

  12. ‘Sceptic says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 6:52 pm

    borewar
    “symptomatic of a loss of morale, and a loss of command and control.”
    No it is symptomatic of the SAS having no morals or ethics, nothing to do with morale. They failed themselves & humanity.
    It has nothing to do with lack of clear goals or the 4th estate, they were responsible for the war crimes no one else to blame.’
    ——————————
    You may know more about the causes of ADF behaviour in Afghanistan than I do. I have assiduously studied both the situation and the situation in other wars.

    There can be no doubt that the loss of morale inevitably leads to a decay in ethical behaviour.
    In this case the causes were:
    1. repeated tours of duty
    2. PTSD
    3. a failure by the Civil to identify a clear war aim
    4. a clear knowledge that they were losing
    5. a war in which it was never quite clear who, at a personal level, was the enemy and who was not
    6. failures at command level
    7. failure to hold to account by the Fourth Estate.
    8. the peculiar dynamics of special forces
    This does not exculpate war crimes. It does help us to understand how they come about.

  13. citizen says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 5:17 pm

    “From what I remember, Margaret Whitlam had a busy life and was certainly not a prop for PR photo opportunities.”

    Too busy kick-starting 747’s for QANTAS.

  14. BK
    Ben Roberts seeks to enforce confidentiality agreement with ex-wife, he will hope she has no evidence of criminality. I assume you can’t have an agreement to cover up a crime. This could be over before it starts.

  15. Sceptic:

    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 7:12 pm

    [‘Mavis
    Hasn’t social media put an end to the “D” Notice?’]

    I not sure but as I said, I wouldn’t put anything past the Morrison Government. Look, for example, how they’ve used ruthless legislation to prosecute Collaery. There’s
    currently an appeal in the ACT Court of Appeal to test
    whether a trial can be held in almost complete secrecy.
    Either way, the matter will end up in the High Court, which should, I hope, toss out the offending section(s) of the Intelligence Services Act (Cth), 2001.

  16. “Too busy kick-starting 747’s for QANTAS”

    And your point is?

    If you’re slagging off Margaret Whitlam because of her size, and you obviously are, then please list below her achievements on the left versus Jen Morrison’s on the right.

    Take your time and use extra paper if you need to.

  17. Check the Wikipedia entry for Margaret Whitlam. She had an extraordinary life for her times including being an elite swimmer.

  18. BK @ #2815 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 7:27 pm

    Michaela Whitbourn tells us that now Ben Roberts-Smith has filed Federal Court proceedings against his ex-wife just days before his high-stakes defamation case against The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald is due to start. His estranged ex-wife, Emma Roberts, is expected to give evidence for the newspapers in that case.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-launches-proceedings-against-ex-wife-on-eve-of-trial-20210603-p57xsd.html

    I wonder if Kerry Stokes still thinks it’s money well-spent on Ben Roberts-Smith?

  19. Roy Orbison says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 7:37 pm
    “Too busy kick-starting 747’s for QANTAS”

    And your point is?

    ________________________

    Looking for a gig on SAD by showing his misogynistic scum credentials.

  20. guytaur:

    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 7:13 pm

    [‘Mavis.

    Crikey is out promoting their story on a Qanon link.

    So Crikey is willing to take the legal risk. Edit: And benefitting from the Streisand effect.’]

    Without knowing the details of the Crikey article, it’s doubtful that it would be defamatory by just joining the dots of an alleged association between Morrison and
    a QAnon conspiracist. In fact, the public has a right to know who Morrison is allegedly keeping company with.

  21. I would like to donate more to Mr Bowe but I do my bit, month in, month out and i will keep doing it for as long as the blog keeps going. I can send him an internet hug though if he needs one. 🙂


  22. Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 7:30 pm

    citizen says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 5:17 pm

    “From what I remember, Margaret Whitlam had a busy life and was certainly not a prop for PR photo opportunities.”

    Too busy kick-starting 747’s for QANTAS.

    You really are a bit of a low life aren’t you.

  23. frednk @ #2827 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 7:48 pm


    Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 7:30 pm

    citizen says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 5:17 pm

    “From what I remember, Margaret Whitlam had a busy life and was certainly not a prop for PR photo opportunities.”

    Too busy kick-starting 747’s for QANTAS.

    You really are a bit of a low life aren’t you.

    More than a bit.

    Hmm, I wonder what Compact Crank said when I commented about Julie Bishop’s tuck shop arms on thin pins? let’s just say he defended HER stoutly with more than a few choice words thrown in my direction. But hey, double standards are the Liberals’ thing.

  24. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has said it is “not aware” of a new variant being detected in the Himalayan nation of Nepal after reports that it could have an impact on foreign holidays for Britons.

    The Daily Mail reported on Thursday that ministers had been alerted to a variant first thought to have originated in Nepal, and that this variant had already spread to Europe and is thought to be resistant to vaccines.

    This comes as the Covid-19 Special Envoy to the WHO has said that we should not be “getting alarmed” each time a new coronavirus variant appears.

    Dr David Nabarro told ITV’s Good Morning Britain: “I don’t think that we, as a race, should be getting alarmed each time a variant appears.

    “What instead we need to do is to make certain that we do everything possible to limit the spread of these variants by the way we behave.”

    He added: “There will be variants appearing and some will worry us…but we’re going to have to go on working out how to have our lives and be able to keep going.”

  25. guytaur

    If it were editorial and legal requirements, then it would get suitably reworked and eventually aired. You wouldn’t get to hear about it.

    Ipso, this was ABC management under political pressure.

  26. ‘BK says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 7:27 pm

    Michaela Whitbourn tells us that now Ben Roberts-Smith has filed Federal Court proceedings against his ex-wife just days before his high-stakes defamation case against The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald is due to start. His estranged ex-wife, Emma Roberts, is expected to give evidence for the newspapers in that case.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-launches-proceedings-against-ex-wife-on-eve-of-trial-20210603-p57xsd.html
    ————————————–
    Remember as a child building a sand castle, complete with moats and outer walls in order to protect the inner bailey from the rising tide?
    Remember the rushing around from one overtopping to another?
    Until finally all that was left was to go and get an ice cream?
    This seems to have that sort of feel to it.

  27. If necessary I’ll bake a cake for William and add a small battery powered angle grinder (much more useful than a file).

  28. From Facebook

    Washington Post
    4m ·
    As part of a major effort to boost vaccinations, the White House on Wednesday detailed an array of new incentives being offered by the private sector that include free food delivery, baseball tickets, Xboxes and chances to win cruise tickets, groceries for a year and free airline flights.

    The White House will also launch a handful of community-based outreach initiatives, including blanketing local media, providing colleges with resources, and an effort to recruit 1,000 Black-owned barbershops and beauty salons across the country to boost coronavirus vaccinations and outreach in communities of color. https://wapo.st/2TDN6NK

    Meanwhile we haven’t even had a community education campaign and are suffering supply constraints with the vaccine distribution. *facepalm*

  29. I’ll chip in a dollar for each instance today, that either Guytaur or Mexican Beemer have politely requested that the other “go and get fucked”.
    Hopefully this leaves enough money in my bank account to pay next weeks rent.

  30. ‘Cud Chewer says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 8:03 pm

    If necessary I’ll bake a cake for William and add a small battery powered angle grinder (much more useful than a file).’
    ——————————
    haha

  31. ‘Arthur says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 8:08 pm

    I’ll chip in a dollar for each instance today, that either Guytaur or Mexican Beemer have politely requested that the other “go and get fucked”.
    Hopefully this leaves enough money in my bank account to pay next weeks rent.’
    ———————————————
    Billbo requested Beemer to stop and Beemer complied instanter. Thus Billbo inadvertently costed himself a motsa.

  32. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 8:12 pm
    Arthur,

    Talk is cheap!

    I reckon you are up for a rounded up $100.

    Your donation is accepted.

    …….

    And what do you suppose I might do for beer money this week?
    $25
    Done.

  33. As I understand it, Roberts-Smith will be attempting to convince a court that details of his confidential property settlement with his former wife(?) are sacrosanct in a civil proceeding. On the face of it, I think he’s correct. But if there is evidence of criminality on his part to pressure Ms. Roberts to lie (as has been reported in the SMH article) then he would’ve overstepped the mark – criminal law trumping a purely civil action. That said, there’s more twist & turns in Roberts-Smith’s legal travails than the Kama Sutra.

  34. The beacons have been lit! Gondor calls for aid!

    I wish you good fortune in the wars to come, Denethor, son of Ecthelion. May you defeat the vile Orcs of Mordor!

    There was a time when King Theoden of Rohan would have gladly aided in your defence but…

  35. So good to hear that the opposition parties in Israel are teaming up to get rid of the war criminal Netanyahu! About time. Great to hear that the Arab List party will be involved too. Hopefully this leads to a less aggressive Israeli government and an end to their policies of apartheid.

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