More month of May miscellany

Preselection challenges aplenty against federal Liberals from New South Wales; a potential second Labor membership ballot as the party seeks a new leader in New South Wales; and a state by-election looms in Queensland.

There has been an outbreak of preselection challenges against federal Liberal incumbents in New South Wales, which would appear to be the fruit of new preselection rules that put more power in the hands of the party rank-and-file. However, the branch has not been so democratised as to deny the possibility of federal intervention, which Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports is likely to be invoked by the Prime Minister to protect the incumbents.

• Environment Minister Sussan Ley faces a challenge in her rural seat of Farrer from Christian Ellis, whose conservative credentials extend to an effort to expel Malcolm Turnbull from the Liberal Party after he published his autobiography last year. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Ley has complained of “outsiders” descending upon her electorate with “city-based factional branch stacking” and “a toxic culture which isn’t about the policies or the candidate”.

• Further challenges are brewing against two leading factional powerbrokers: Alex Hawke of the centre right, from conservative-aligned army colonel Michael Abrahams; and Trent Zimmerman of the moderate faction, from both Hamish Stitt, a conservative barrister, and Jess Collins, a member of the centre right.

• In the marginal Sydney seat of Reid, moderate-aligned Fiona Martin faces a challenge from sports administrator Natalie Baini. Apparently at an earlier stage of gestation are potential challenges to Bennelong MP John Alexander from Gisele Kapterian, former chief-of-staff to Michaelia Cash; and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, whose Senate seat is reportedly being eyed by conservative colleague Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW.

• One challenge that will not proceed is the one said to have been of “most concern” to senior Liberals in a report by Sarah Martin of The Guardian. Melissa McIntosh, a member of the centre right faction who won the key seat of Lindsay from Labor in 2019, was said to have been under serious pressure from Mark Davies, Penrith councillor and husband of state Mulgoa MP Tanya Davies, having “lost control of her branches to the conservative faction”. However, Clare Armstrong of News.com.au reports the conservatives have “done a deal to drop the challenge”, the terms of which are unclear.

Preselections elsewhere:

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports that candidates for Labor’s preselection in the Adelaide seat of Spence include Matt Burnell, an official with the Right-aligned Transport Workers Union, and Alice Dawkins, who works with “a consulting firm specialising in Asian strategic engagement” and is the daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The safe Labor seat in northern Adelaide will be vacated at the election by Nick Champion’s move to state politics.

• A Liberal preselection last weekend for the Adelaide seat of Boothby was won by Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned management consultant and medical researcher. Swift was chosen ahead of conservative rival Leah Blythe, who had the backing of outgoing member Nicolle Flint.

• The Tasmanian seat of Lyons will be contested for the Liberals by Susie Bower, Meander Valley councillor and chief executive of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone. Bower was a candidate for Lyons at the recent state election, but polled last out of the six Liberal candidates with 3.5% of the vote. Lyons could potentially have joined Bass and Braddon as a Liberal gain at the 2019 election if not for the mid-campaign disendorsement of the party’s candidate, Jessica Whelan.

Other news:

• Jodi McKay’s resignation as New South Wales Labor leader on Friday potentially sets up a second membership ballot for the party to go with the one that will choose Rebecca White’s successor in Tasmania. This depends on whether former leader Michael Daley puts his name forward in opposition to Chris Minns, who would appear to be the clear favourite. Today’s Sun-Herald reports that head office would prefer that Minns take the position unopposed so as to avoid “an expensive ballot of rank-and-file members, which would take weeks”. However, a tweet by Daley yesterday suggested he was not of a mind to oblige them.

• Labor MP Duncan Pegg announced his resignation from the Queensland parliament early this week after a terminal cancer diagnosis. This will lead at some point to a by-election for his southern Brisbane seat of Stretton, which Pegg retained by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. Such has been the electoral record of opposition parties recently that one might have thought the Liberal National Party would sit this one out, but they have in fact jumped into the fray with the endorsement of Jim Bellos, a police officer and former Queenslander of the Year. The Courier-Mail reports the front-runner for Labor preselection is James Martin, an electorate officer to Pegg.

• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has a piece in The Conversation on the apparent trend of non-university educated whites abandoning parties of the centre left in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia.

Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports the Liberal party room was told this week that the election would be held next year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,927 comments on “More month of May miscellany”

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  1. I’m letting all those Australians who I consider a higher priority than me to get their vaccinations before me – “horses and men first” – it’s a Cavalry thing.

    I’m sure most here would consider me extremely low on their priority lists.

  2. Cud Chewer @ #2645 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 4:08 pm

    C@t + a r

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01359-3

    Yeah, interesting. Though they only looked at the prospect of boosting AZ with Pfizer; didn’t test the converse:

    Xing says the antibody response to the Pfizer boost seems to be even stronger than the one most people generate after receiving two doses of the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine, according to earlier trial data. But it is not clear how those responses compare with those seen in people who receive two doses of mRNA vaccines such as Pfizer–BioNTech’s, which tend to trigger an especially potent antibody response after a second dose.

    So AZ + Pfizer good; Pfizer + AZ unknown.

    poroti @ #2644 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 4:07 pm

    Molten sodium accidents , a barrel of fun 😆

    What? Just splash some water on it. It’ll be fine. 🙂

  3. Guytaur – actually that’s exactly what a lot of Australians thought Gough WAS doing in the aftermath of Cyclone Tracey. The Great One was actually doing the Great European Tour that summer, and Jim Cairns was acting PM (and Cairns did the empathy thing very well). Whitlam continued on his tour for a few days, but then flew back in late December in the face of increasing criticism, as the scale of the disaster in Darwin became apparent. He then flew back to Europe to continue with his tour, which got even more criticism.

  4. Assantdj says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 4:12 pm

    “Apparently there has been some results out of the U.K. that show that a first dose az followed by Pfizer is a better outcome than 2 doses of either type.”

    Careful with making that type of claim – I was roundly savaged for saying similar some weeks ago.

  5. Hugo

    Yes. Emphasises the point the tweep was making I think.
    Unlike Morrison, Whitlam had a team with empathy.

    Did the Whitlam government have empathy coaches?

  6. Assantdj @ #2638 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 4:12 pm

    a r
    Apparently there has been some results out of the U.K. that show that a first dose az followed by Pfizer is a better outcome than 2 doses of either type. As I cannot currently assess the virus anywhere nearby I am waiting and hope my husband and I can go for the mix.
    On vaccinations son had second Pfizer on Tuesday, crook as in aches and pain, blinding headache by evening lasted about 36 hours. Some https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-20/scott-morrison-australia-inner-city-net-zero-emissions-biden/100080402ork,ate vaccinated at same time still sick, no one was unaffected.

    If you’re eligible I’d urge you to travel and get vaccinated as soon as possible.

    The more people vaccinated, the less chance of hospital overrun = no more destructive lockdowns.

    Please, PLEASE, people, just get jabbed as soon as possible with whatever is available. Don’t wait, I beg you !

  7. I was roundly savaged for saying similar some weeks ago.

    _____________________________-

    Poor, poor Incitatus. Call the waaaambulance!

  8. Adam Bandt made the sensible point that residents in crowded homes are more vulnerable to infection. Good thought, but by the time this is fixed we’ll be in the next pandemic.

  9. “I’m sure most here would consider me extremely low on their priority lists.”

    Yes but Bucephalus – you may pass the virus on to someone we DO like!

  10. Simon, I think that it is worthwhile to note that the particular piece of land that you refer to (Magenta), is a series of foredunes that had been firstly destroyed by sandmining, then used as the Council Tip for 20 years.

    I wouldnt argue with you on your main point… but you paint a picture of the whole site being completely trashed, that isnt my memory of it.

  11. It’s at least six years old but works perfectly for my simple needs. I’ll just have to pretend I’m an old lady who doesn’t have a mobile.

    😀

    The forced obsolescence of phones, TVs etc. is ridiculous – but there are some signs of improvement.

  12. Assantdj @ #2643 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 4:06 pm

    My Facebook feed which I only check for family photos from my eastern states relatives has a post re the indie card. Has anybody else seen this. It is basically saying that the LNP is planning to add pensioners to the card because they get taxpayer money.
    I had in the past seen rumours the government would go,down this path but didn’t think even Morrison would be stupid enough to upset pensioners Australia wide.
    The story supposedly came from Gillespies office.

    Assantdj This story keeps floating around. LNP would like to do it despite the huge cost in admin to Indue and voter backlash. Don’t know that they are stupid enough to try though. Has the makings of a great scare campaign

  13. “I’m sure most here would consider me extremely low on their priority lists.”

    Look, it is up to the government to stage the rollout. If you become eligible for one I wouldnt take Buce’s advice. Call up, book in and get one at your earliest opportunity. Maybe, just maybe, it will spur the govt into getting more doses online quicker than is currently not planned and not promised.

  14. Green stain
    You and Bandt wanted the borders open (tick)
    You and Bandt knew Morrison hadn’t done his job (tick)
    You and Bandt used the lockdown to score points (tick)
    GAGF

  15. Rex
    If getting the vaccine was easy I would do it now but our local GP isn’t part of the roll out and I don’t want to try queuing with a man with advanced dementia. Our other option a GP clinic 15 minutes away is only taking bookings for its own clients at this time.
    For all these reasons I am limiting my outing to doctor only and am lucky I live with family who can do any shopping I need.

  16. Yabba

    Are there houses on the tip site itself? Have they attempted to remediate it?

    There was something similar going on at a part of Stockton beach. The ocean collected some of it.

  17. Can someone that understands these things please explain why this vaccine isn’t been rolled out like the flu shot is i get it there are issues around refrigeration or is this Canberra being useless.

  18. News on my iphone – sounds very interesting:

    (SMH) ABC has pulled an upcoming 4 Corners episode about the relationship between Morrison and the QAnon conspiracy theory.

  19. Jaeger

    I have a smartphone design with a number of innovations, which respect the right to repair. Know anyone with deep enough pockets to get it to market?

  20. Beemer

    Labor wanted the borders open.

    It’s called responsible dedicated quarantine.

    Labor wanted vaccination as promised.

    This is multiparty policy.

    The failure is the LNP.

  21. https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/abc-bosses-pull-four-corners-episode-linking-pm-to-qanon-figure-20210603-p57xuk.html

    ABC bosses pull Four Corners episode linking PM to QAnon figure
    By Zoe Samios
    June 3, 2021 — 2.24pm

    ABC management has pulled an upcoming Four Corners episode about the relationship between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the QAnon conspiracy theory, a decision that could be seen as an attempt to dampen tensions between the national broadcaster and federal government.

    The episode was expected to run this Monday following weeks of delays, but staff have since been informed it will not go to air following a decision by managing director David Anderson. The decision comes just days after Industry Minister Christian Porter decided to drop his defamation action against action the ABC over its reporting of a historical rape allegation.

    ……………………..

    The Guardian reported in 2019 that a family friend of Prime Minister Scott Morrison is a key follower of the movement.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/05/qanon-conspiracy-theorist-friends-australian-prime-minister-scott-morrison

  22. ABC management has pulled an upcoming Four Corners episode about the relationship between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the QAnon conspiracy theory, a decision that could be seen as an attempt to dampen tensions between the national broadcaster and federal government.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abc-bosses-pull-four-corners-episode-linking-pm-to-qanon-figure-20210603-p57xuk.html

    Too bad. That a far right conspiracy theorist may have the PM’s ear is a matter of great national interest.

  23. Speaking of which.

    @Raf_Epstein tweets
    It’s happening

    The Fed Gov has given an MOU to the Victorian Government to sign on to the quarantine proposal.

  24. Green stain
    You can spin all you like but no one here went harder on returning people from India than you and no one here went harder on point scoring from the lockdown more than you
    The ALP wanted the government to do its job and kept its points to that
    GAGF

  25. Bucephalussays:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 4:16 pm

    Assantdj says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 4:12 pm

    “Apparently there has been some results out of the U.K. that show that a first dose az followed by Pfizer is a better outcome than 2 doses of either type.”

    Careful with making that type of claim – I was roundly savaged for saying similar some weeks ago.

    You were making statements without supporting evidence.

    That’s very different to this one.

  26. ‘dave says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 3:55 pm

    The woes of China’s ‘bad bank’ point to deeper problems’
    ——————————————-
    They have been letting a few go under.

    If they let the lot go their financial system would collapse.

    If they let this one go it would be a biggie but possibly not enough to knock the system over.

  27. The lies from Morrison today
    Leave the borders open
    Show Determination , strength , resilience , etc do not let fear over come you against the corona virus

    Morrison and his cronies closed Australia International borders,doesnt that show Morrison and his cronies fear the corona virus

  28. #theirABC

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abc-bosses-pull-four-corners-episode-linking-pm-to-qanon-figure-20210603-p57xuk.html

    Of course. There is absolutely no public interest in exploring the links between Moses Morrison and the right wing nuttersphere. Its not as if Morrison is the PM, in the middle of reshaping our foreign policy with war with a nuclear superpower on the board and possessing personal religious beliefs like the Cray-Cray Rapture … oh, wait!

  29. Gee, I hope we don’t go to war with anyone with Morrison as leader.
    He and the Nats kind of manage to get into government with just over 4 in 10 of the electorate supporting this side of politics.
    The rest of us either are indifferent to him or see he for the total phoney he is……
    What is it about the conservative side of politics that they always want us in some kind of war or another?

  30. For those that missed it.

    @JStein_WaPo tweeted
    *** After $1,400 stimulus checks:

    — 42% decline in food shortages
    — 43% decline in gauge of financial instability
    — +20% decline in anxiety & depression

  31. Beemer

    Labor and the Greens were saying exactly the same thing on safe return of expats and vaccination.

    And to balance your abuse GAGF

  32. Lib Sen Andrew Bragg endorses the idea that a State might shut down because “it’s been popular” and the money from Feds would be an inducement. Grrr.

  33. Assantdj @ #2656 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 4:31 pm

    Rex
    If getting the vaccine was easy I would do it now but our local GP isn’t part of the roll out and I don’t want to try quint with a man with advanced dementia. Our other option a GP clinic 15 minutes away is only taking bookings for its own clients at this time.
    For all these reasons I am limiting my outing to doctor only and am lucky I live with family who can do any shopping I need.

    I wonder if the clinic would visit you given your difficult circumstances ..? maybe worth a phone call ..?

  34. Too bad. That a far right conspiracy theorist may have the PM’s ear is a matter of great national interest.

    I hope the story has more in it than that. I wouldnt want to be judged by what all my friends believe and dont believe.

  35. Jaeger

    I have a smartphone design with a number of innovations, which respect the right to repair. Know anyone with deep enough pockets to get it to market?

    Not personally. Have you tried Indiegogo etc.?

  36. lizziesays:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 4:45 pm

    Lib Sen Andrew Bragg endorses the idea that a State might shut down because “it’s been popular” and the money from Feds would be an inducement. Grrr.

    As opposed to creating an disincentive to lockdown which potentially puts more people at risk through a delayed response.

  37. I suppose it is easy to to fear Covid if you have actually been vaccinated.

    What sort of wanker would get up in federal parliament and tell us not to fear death?

    What sort of wanker would go all Rambo on not opening up international borders one week and then the next fully vaccinated tell us not to fear the virus?

  38. Anyone in difficult circumstances wanting to be vaccinated might give their local Fed members office a call to assist with a solution. Every Fed member wants people vaccinated so it’s worth a phone call I reckon.

  39. Re the MOU for the quarantine facility.

    Wait for the detail.

    Morrison will provide the land but who will have to ante up the most money for construction ?

    Remember it is a federal responsibility. Why should the states have to pay anything ?

    Will Morrison try and wedge the Victorian government by demanding the state pay most of the construction cost or else no facility ?

    We shall see.

    BTW, it will also be interesting to find out exactly when the Victorian government received the MOU. How long before the drip from the PMO to the media ?

  40. Bucephalussays:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 4:47 pm

    Barney in Bira says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 4:41 pm

    I provided links to the articles about it.

    Really?

    That would be a first. I must have missed them.

    Were they about scientific studies, or someone just wondering?

  41. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/05/30/more-month-of-may-miscellany/comment-page-51/#comment-3619337

    … he’s not into accountability or transparency, anytime he shows up later, he’ll also leave earlier, doesn’t want to respect (social/ the) media or serfs anyway, so why show up on time?

    Probably busy doing nuthink, not like there’s any movement on quarantine, vax, social equality/ inequity, powershift, removing the colonial Union Jack from the flag …

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