First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.
The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.
The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.
Some notable preselection action to report:
• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.
• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.
• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.
On scare campaigns in tight elections, 10-15% of voters make up their mind on the way to compulsory voting – which they detest as much as they detest politics in general.
So what do they see? Bill Shorten wants to tax your home, tax your car, tax your kids, tax you from cradle to the grave, tax your retirement…. They might also have seen some of the Yellow Fat Clive Palmer media blitz- Harvey Norman-esque in its saturation of print media, social media, TV, billboards alluding to this same threat of taxing tsunami coming.
They might also see dark montages of Morrison, Abbott and Turnbull – can’t govern yourselves. And upbeat ones of better childcare, health, environment, education, welfare, standard of living….if you vote for the same guy who is going to tax you into oblivion.
Now wouldn’t it be funny if on top of Mediscare, the Lyin’ Liberals itching to cut services to the bone after the election, to pay for the profligate spending – mostly on handouts to mates – was highlighted round the clock by every ALP talking head and fellow traveller. You know they will do it, here is the IPA ‘secret hit list’ where average Aussies will be ‘slugged’ to pay for Morrison’s Mates Mansions..
Mediscare was not a lie like the Coalition and its allies’ campaigns. They’re coming to take your utes. One hundred dollar roasts. Pokie precommitment will cost $5 billion. Adani will create 10,000 (or 30,000) jobs. A debt of 13% of GDP was an unsustainable burden. No cuts to health, education, ABC, SBS. Unity ticket on Gonski…
Crocodile Tears.
Littlefinger had a negative or dissatisfaction rating of 50% or more from October 2018 onwards (ie when ScoMo replaced Turnbull and the election of Littlefinger was a real possibility).
Labor chose to run the risk of taking a profoundly unpopular leader into a campaign and paid the price.
Assantdj
The words I want to hear spoken more often are “herd immunity”. Were we to reach herd immunity – even given the presence of aggressive variants – then a weak quarantine system simply would not matter. Someone would walk into the community in an infectious state. A very small cluster would develop (or in the worst case it would find a community with more than its share of vaccine-hesitant) and then the cluster would die out. Problem solved.
But if the vaccine has lower effectiveness against an aggressive strain and that cluster grows and grows, it will wreak havoc among the unvaccinated community.
So I don’t get Scumo talking about a thousand cases per day. That’s meaningless. Why a thousand? How does it remain stable? Why doesn’t it quickly grow to ten thousand? This is all dangerous bullshit. Either the rate of infection grows, or it dies out. There’s no “stable”. Never has been. Indeed the old fairy tale about “flattening the curve” was based on the lie that would achieve some kind of equilibrium with the virus.
My reasons for optimism are based on unintended consequences. The Astra Zeneca debacle has meant that the bulk of the population will be vaccinated with Pfizer/Moderna/Novavax. Plus, the delay has meant that later this year or early next year we’ll be moving to the upgraded vaccines. There may well be people whose 2nd dose is the upgraded vaccine.
Plus there are going to be a lot of people like me (my 2nd shot will be late June) who will be using whatever means available to get a booster shot with an upgraded (and different class of) vaccine late this year.
Plus I believe that we will know the answer to the question of how much these vaccines reduce transmission and how close they get us to herd immunity and what if any difference there is between vaccines, within the next few months. Knowing that herd immunity is indeed possible (and how) will hopefully guide the debate here.
Once the vaccination program is at the stage where we can relax restrictions the best indicator of Covid’s effect would be hospitalisation, stratified by vaccinated and non-vaccinated.
boerwar @ #2795 Sunday, May 16th, 2021 – 6:50 pm
The thing is … female novelists can get away with pretending to be males. Even without empathy training.
Male novelists? … perhaps not so much 🙁
Oh and btw, in the context of opening up travel from “low risk” countries. What are these countries? Singapore was being touted as one. Now look what happened.
China is possibly the top of the list as genuinely low risk and stable. Wouldn’t that be an irony. Vietnam perhaps, but other than that, few countries of any real consequence. Certainly not the US or UK. They have a long, long way to go to get the numbers down to the point where ordinary public health (contact tracing etc) can really kick in and get the numbers way down. And they may discover that the variants actually cause another wave. So much for our largest two tourism destinations.
And if we do anything stupid with our borders, don’t be surprised if we lose the New Zealand bubble.
The only way travel out of Australia comes back in any major way is when countries like the UK and US find herd immunity. Till then we need to stop being unrealistic and seriously expand our quarantine facilities.
I am watching the news “debate ” on how mental health facilities and sports grounds in Victoria will be funded and thinking how it would be so easier if some of the millions given to private schools were made available to disadvantaged areas.
Yeah I know. Silly me.
“Once the vaccination program is at the stage where we can relax restrictions the best indicator of Covid’s effect would be hospitalisation, stratified by vaccinated and non-vaccinated.”
BK
If we relax quarantine its a one-way trip. We don’t get to run the experiment twice. We either have herd immunity here or we don’t. The best way to understand whether or not we have herd immunity is to pay very close attention to the data overseas – before opening.
And we do know what covid’s effect will be on the unvaccinated. Some will get very sick and die. Its really a question of how much it spreads and that, again, is about herd immunity.
Oh and BK
You can pretty much guarantee that Scumo’s thousand cases per day will be overwhelmingly among the non vaccinated. So we’re talking a dozen deaths per day. Yeah, sure, comparable to the flu but I doubt it would be popular. In any case, the thousand is just plain bullshit. It will spread as far and fast as it can. Its a virus.
So according to Worldometers the UK had circa 2m active cases in January and now has less than 50K active cases.
That seems like pretty good progress in my book.
Ironically in the US the number of active cases accelerated after the election and is still higher than what applied on US election day – although clearly coming down very quickly (presumably because of vaccines).
Cud
My thinking is a that, and I have no idea when, the federal government will open up in some way and that’s when the pressure is on. And the unvaccinated will have to wake up to themselves.
Mexicanbeemer says Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 3:11 pm
It worked for Abbott too.
Labor needs to be hammering home the negatives about Morrison because the media’s not going to do it for them.
lizzie says Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 4:12 pm
But if you just read The Worst Australian you would think this was a problem unique to WA and the fault of our state Health Minister.
But, but, tax cuts.
I remember Mega once saying that the problem with Labor is they don’t know how to use power. So, if I was a state Labor Premier I’d call a Royal Commission, and make sure the Feds are included in the terms of reference.
Lars,
There were around 100k infections per day in the US on election day. Now there’s as third as many.
Yes it is coming down fairly quickly at the moment but the interesting question is what will happen when the US gets down to about equivalent to where the UK is now in terms of infections per person. The US is now 74 infections per 100k people per week and the UK is 23.
Note that the UK is now flatlining. That might indicate clusters of resistant strains in the UK, notably the Indian strain. Will be a worry if the US also suffers the same problem. These countries need to get it down to the point where testing/tracing/isolating can have an effect.
Note that Israel is now down to 2 infections per 100k people per week and its cases are almost down to single figures. Israel is a very good test of Pfizer btw.
BK
You expect people to behave rationally don’t you?
The threat of a reintroduced mutant strain in the community will certainly cause more people to get vaccinated, but of course this will be too late. Besides there’s idiots like my sister and then there’s children.
We need decisive herd immunity to be the goal. Its possible. Its about time our politicians stopped this stupid game of not mentioning herd immunity (like they all bit their tongue not mentioning elimination).
Israel is a very good test of Pfizer btw
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Also a very good test of a very effective and extensive vaccination program.
Lizzie @ #2806 Sunday, May 16th, 2021 – 6:52 pm
I would be happy with a system where each child is given a set amount by the government to cover for education. No matter which school (or home school) they go to. The system would allow for additional funding for particularly disadvantaged/problem areas as this is money well spent on a more stable and productive society. No money changes hands in normal average public schools. The system would see all non-government schools, schools where the child gets ‘given’ the money to offset the fees, treated as businesses (as they clearly are) and have to pay company tax, GST, land taxes, council rates etc.
Actually, tell you what, they can keep their council rates exemption so long as they open up their facilities to all ratepayers in that Council. Swimming pools, tennis courts, ovals, theatres, concert halls…..
CC how do you achieve herd immunity against a virus that is constantly mutating?
CudChewer do you have any citations for your claim of resistant strains in the UK or is this conjecture on your part?
Simon Katich says:
Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 7:43 pm
Lizzie @ #2806 Sunday, May 16th, 2021 – 6:52 pm
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That’s an argument for a US Republican style voucher system?
Labor needs to be hammering home the negatives about Morrison because the media’s not going to do it for them.
Absolutely. Appoint a hungry frontbencher attack dog in chief (not Albo) and let him/her rip.
davidwh
By having vaccines updated to remain effective against the variants and also by knocking down the virus worldwide to the extent that variants take much longer to show up.
Besides some of the variants are independently arriving at the same mutations. And some vaccine makers are now aiming for a pluripotent vaccine (much like the flu vaccine makers).
There’s also hope of a single vaccine that will cope with any possible variation, and there are other treatments including anti-viral nasal sprays and nanobody nasal sprays.
Another thing we need to get used to is regular mass self-testing. Do that universally and the virus doesn’t have a chance.
CC wouldn’t that mean a substantial % of the population would have to receive regular boosters until herd immunity is achieved? It may be a long road in that case.
Lars
Its in the news.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/mapped-hotspots-indian-variant-covid-19-uk/
davidwh
Its not about herd immunity being achieved. We could get there mid next year. Its about herd immunity being maintained for a few years whilst the rest of the world is sorted out.
Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 7:54 pm
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Thank you – but the link is subscriber only. The headline says there are unknowns about the virus – is that your point?
CC sounds like a long and hard road. Makes you wonder why people are complaining about restricting overseas travel and returns.
davidwh
It requires good a sound, professional, caring government, doesn’t it. Ooops.
Lars I don’t subscribe. Here’s a quote..
CC it would likely work better if we could take the politics and politicians out of the process. 🙁
Read the rest and you’ll find that the UK government is seriously worried and that there is now an uptick in community transmissions (transmissions not traceable to travellers). There’s lots of other data suggesting the Indian strain is more highly transmissible.
And its not the only strain of concern. The Brazilian one is also causing issues in the US.
What is the evidence that the Indian variant is vaccine resistant cudchewer? Concern I can understand – vaccine resistant is a much more serious issue if established.
More transmissible I can understand as well (and this has been reported) – vaccine resistant – I have seen no reports of this claim.
Lars Von Trier @ #2820 Sunday, May 16th, 2021 – 7:16 pm
Well, I am nothing if not inconsistent. I waiver on the UBI for exactly the reasons many advocate against the voucher system. HOwever…..
Removing the tax exemptions for private schools would help the budgets of all three levels of government. It makes the GST less regressive. It shuts the traps of parents (who dont get what tax does, thinking it some sort of direct reciprocity rather than, if used properly, growing the pie and benefits all in society) crying ‘I paid my tax so give me money for my kid to go to Scotch’.
As I said, the system would allow plenty of room for increased funding for children in problem areas, disadvantaged children etc. And, I reckon the results would show you get more educational bang for your buck in a public school.
My problem with private schools isnt so much the fancy blazers, the glitzy buildings, the rowing shacks on prime realestate. It is the club. It is the leg up without merit. Because these kids dont just study together. They play music, sport, go on holidays together. Kids who play together will later spiv together. It is segregation by wealth at an early age. Public schools, at least primary schools, were one of the last commons. But no more. And I see no solution to that problem – only shock that Australians flock to these exe schools in numbers like few countries on the planet.
Cud, the only travel bubble will be with NZ for the foreseeable future. Vietnam is in all sorts right now, over 100 local a day and is at a critical point right now if it can avoid becoming another Thailand. Taiwan had today over 200 local today and are locking down. Singapore had around 40 local today and is locked down for a month.
Simon Katich says:
Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 8:17 pm
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Assume you shut GPS schools by government order.
Wouldn’t rich White people still congregate together, do business together, marry each other etc?
‘BK says:
Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 7:39 pm
Israel is a very good test of Pfizer btw
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Also a very good test of a very effective and extensive vaccination program.’
Pfizer = Covid’s Iron Dome?
Vaccination is critical, but it will not lead to eradication. We will need to learn to live with COVID-19 as a couple of medical practitioners recently in governmental positions opine.
The question will be how we go about living with it and how many will die in the process of acclimatisation.
Maybe I am feeling morbid, but I do think we will open up with consequent morbidity and mortality. Post-election of course. I am very happy with the Moderna purchase. I hope that they arrive as promised, unlike Pfizer and AZ. We also need an mRNA facility in Australia.
Repeat this something for people to think about
“There will be one national borders at the time of the Antichrist to be closed from the world, the Antichrist will claim “soars like an eagle in the sky” is doing the work of god in this current pandemic ”
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Doe this sound this sound like someone
Perhaps I should say acculturation rather than acclimatisation? Not sure which word is best suited.
This raises bullshit to a whole new level.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-16/india-covid-19-cow-dung-fake-remedies-alternative-medicine/100132838
”And I see no solution to that problem – only shock that Australians flock to these exe schools in numbers like few countries on the planet.”
It’s complicated, the roots being the sectarianism that prevailed when public education was being established in the Australian colonies around the 1870s-90s. Before then, the churches mostly looked after education. The Catholics didn’t trust the new public system and stayed out. The rest is history.
In comparable countries, private schools are a niche for the wealthy and the very religious. I would like things to evolve that way here. Do to the private education system what the Federal Government is doing to tertiary education and the ABC and wants to do to the NDIS and Medicare.
YouGov poll has the Nationals leading 51-49 for Saturday’s Upper Hunter by-election:
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/upper-hunter-byelection-nats-in-narrow-5149-lead-in-crucial-seat-for-berejiklian/news-story/28c9ea0037ca6c172c806f92fcbe3422
Vaccination is critical, but it will not lead to eradication.
I suppose that’s obvious when you think about it. Measles hasn’t been eradicated, nor Cholera and Typhoid. Polio is still hanging on after nearly seven decades.
Simon Katich @ #2245 Sunday, May 16th, 2021 – 8:17 pm
Welcome to the ‘Liberaltarian’ club, SK. I have been saying this on these pages for years as the sort of radical economic rethinking we need to do in order to get the Budget back into balance, and I mean real balance, balance for good for our society vs balance for necessities like Defence.
Our society has become too top heavy with indulgences like subsidies for private Education and Private Health. They need to be eliminated. So you can get Basics Cover for every family: Basic Public Health, as we had it when Medicare first began, and Basic Education, of high quality of course, through our Public Education system. If you want Extras Cover, you pay for it yourself out of your own pocket.
However, in order to stop the whinging and whining of the privileged I propose the sweetener of going ahead with the Stage 3 Tax Cuts. But you only get them AFTER the election, which will be a referendum on this proposal.
This then frees up a shedload of money for good things.
Simples!
davidwh @ #2235 Sunday, May 16th, 2021 – 7:54 pm
We receive regular yearly ‘boosters’ for the Influenza virus. What’s the difference, except for lethality of Sars-COV-2?
For crimes against rugby. I dont know why you would assume that. If I could, I would shut private primary schools. But I cant. It wont happen.
Why are you mentioning white people? Why are you mentioning adult people? What is up your nose? Try blowing it in private.
Welcome to the ‘Liberaltarian’ club, SK
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Social anarchist club.
Simon Katich @ #2259 Sunday, May 16th, 2021 – 9:18 pm
‘Liberaltarian’ slips through to the keeper easier. 🙂
And I question the ‘anarchist’ tag. What’s anarchic about providing high quality social services? Private Health Funds do it every day. Are they ‘anarchic’?