First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.
The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.
The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.
Some notable preselection action to report:
• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.
• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.
• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.
Smart meters are essential for what is coming. To go all renewable and deal with overnight charging of your car demand as well as supply will have to be managed. Demand will be managed with price signals. Price signals cannot occur if metering isn’t done over short time frames.
Smart meters do allow remote reading, the meter reading company does have to install the communication equipment.
Only in
AmericaTexas.Tiger briefly on the loose in Texas suburb, viral video shows
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/10/tiger-loose-texas-video
After tonight
If there is not a bounce or a very short bounce(last 2 weeks) for Morrison and his cronies.
Labor can start to rub their hands together , and go on full throttle attack
“ If there is not a bounce or a very short bounce(last 2 weeks) for Morrison and his cronies”
Well I have some bad news for you, sportsbet has change quickly in the last 24hrs.
Was trending closer between the two parties since Dec, 2020, with labor narrowing the odds to $1.85 LNP to $1.90.
However since the GAOL Australians returning from India, (hardline on who comes into Australia) plus all the good news around the budget. The change has been big in the last 24hrs.
SportsBet now has it $1.75 LNP to $2.00 ALP.
Attention Bludger Reprobates
In 5 minutes I am off to hospital for heart surgery, nothing like a bit of aortic root replacement in the morning 🙂 Soooo one of two things will happen 1) I return to annoy you all in 7-10 days 2) I’ll be saying hello to Vera and CTar1. Either way a big thank you to William for the blog and dog know how he puts up with the customers 🙂 . Also a bigly thank you to all the Bludger Lounge patrons. Despite what you do to my blood pressure at times , not to mention the gnashing of teeth you’ve grown on me. A bit like fungus I suppose 😆
So squabble on and promise me the Green v Labor war will be over when I return 😆
Good luck poroti.
Kymbo says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 6:54 am
However since the GAOL Australians returning from India, (hardline on who comes into Australia) plus all the good news around the budget. The change has been big in the last 24hrs.
SportsBet now has it $1.75 LNP to $2.00 ALP.
——————————–
Doesnt look too good for newsltd/Morrisson and cronies
if the odds are that short for Labor
Hey poroti, best wishes for today’s surgery. Looking forward to seeing you back here in 7 to 10 days.
Best of luck poroti!
Finally we will see Eric Abetz turfed from parliament.
Some women are too forgiving of bad men.
Let’s hope.
BTW, how are you getting on with your free trial of stan? Decided to keep going, or give it the flick
Danama Papers @ #12 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 5:13 am
That was in response to Fess’s post above of course.
poroti,
You better come back fighting fit! The place won’t be the same without you. 🙁
poroti @ #5 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 7:03 am
I, for one, look forward to being constructively annoyed by our Busy Bee underlord.
Good
lucksurgeon(s), mate.Cooking a curry? Your rice could be hiding micro-plastics, warn scientists
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2021/05/10/micro-plastics-rice-warning/?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Katherine Murphy summarises the results of the latest Essential poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/11/guardian-essential-poll-australians-divided-over-governments-ban-on-travel-from-india
According to David Crowe, Australians will be offered “intensive support” to retrain for the economic recovery and young people will be told to sign up for job training if they cannot find employment.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/intensive-support-budget-to-offer-to-retrain-australians-in-new-skills-20210510-p57qit.html
Australians saved $130 billion through the pandemic, and Josh Frydenberg is hoping they will spend that cash to offset a huge fall in COVID government support, says Shane Wright.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/budget-to-bet-on-consumers-spending-their-130-billion-savings-20210510-p57qhl.html
Paul Bongiorno reckons we will see a budget of fantasy figures and questionable commitments.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/05/11/paul-bongiorno-federal-budget/
And Michael Pascoe say we should beware the Treasurer’s double counting.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/news-federal-budget/2021/05/11/federal-budget-double-counting-pascoe/
Simon Benson begins this contribution with, “The principal economic message from Josh Frydenberg’s second pandemic budget is that while the recovery is running apace, the economy remains fragile and unable to stand on its own two feet. Monetary policy is spent, population growth is subzero, migration has stalled. Fiscal policy is the only game in town. The government has no option but to continue spending. A premature withdrawal would jeopardise the revival.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/budget-2021-will-josh-frydenberg-spend-smart-orspend-stupid/news-story/bbc8ea7db847637a3e1203023b46a836
And Dennis Shanahan says that Morrison is turning the policy retreat or political about-face into a refined art as he seeks to maintain political momentum and avoid distractions from the budget and pandemic recovery.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/scott-morrisons-acrobatics-more-backflips-than-a-threering-circus/news-story/c9f6bb8ccede279a413dedebd32b7973
Rachel Clun tells us what some are expecting to see for aged care from the budget.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hunt-promises-record-response-to-aged-care-royal-commission-in-budget-20210506-p57pda.html
The world is partying hard on free money, but beware the hangover warns Peter Hartcher.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-world-is-partying-hard-on-free-money-but-beware-the-hangover-20210510-p57qgn.html
Pfizer’s vaccine seems to offer good protection against the South African variant, while British data has given AstraZeneca a lift, in positive news for Australia’s vaccine mix.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/pfizer-beats-back-variants-as-astrazeneca-receives-a-timely-boost-20210510-p57qj0.html
Would Australians support mandates for the COVID-19 vaccine? Our research suggests most would, explain these contributors to The Conversation.
https://theconversation.com/would-australians-support-mandates-for-the-covid-19-vaccine-our-research-suggests-most-would-159919
Matthew Elmas says there are five budget questions Josh Frydenberg is yet to answer. They are big ones!
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/news-federal-budget/2021/05/10/josh-frydenberg-federal-budget-2021/
Australia’s housing crisis: it’s one of the most unaffordable in the world, so how is the Coalition going to fix it, wonders Jessica Sier.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/11/australias-housing-crisis-its-one-of-the-most-unaffordable-in-the-world-so-how-is-the-coalition-going-to-fix-it
Fire researchers are saying that extreme fire weather during the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires overwhelmed other factors such as fuel loads, raising questions about the role of forestry management and prescribed burning.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/all-bets-are-off-fire-weather-trumps-forestry-prescribed-burning-20210510-p57qif.html
Less than two months after quitting NSW Parliament over sexual assault and sexting allegations, former Upper Hunter MP Michael Johnsen has unveiled his next project. He has put out his shingle as a government relations and strategy adviser.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-michael-johnsen-did-next-20210510-p57qm0.html
Chip Le Grand describes Robert Doyle’s tearful apology as “an exercise in cynicism”. He concludes that throughout this entire episode, Doyle’s principal concern has been Robert Doyle, not the women he groped.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/robert-doyle-s-tearful-apology-an-exercise-in-cynicism-20210510-p57qfj.html
Amme Twomey explains why part of the legal challenge to the India travel ban has been comprehensively defeated.
https://theconversation.com/part-of-the-legal-challenge-to-the-india-travel-ban-has-been-comprehensively-defeated-heres-why-160624
Karen Maley tells us that Australia turned into a net lender of capital last year, as the Reserve Bank provided banks with ample cheap funding at a time when consumers were squirrelling away savings.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/australia-joined-the-ranks-of-the-capital-exporters-last-year-20210510-p57qe7
Jennifer Hewett writes that Josh Frydenberg’s big-spending budget and a booming domestic economy obscure the risks and reality of the fractured relationship with Australia’s biggest trading partner.
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/digging-a-ditch-with-china-20210510-p57qkq
Brian Toohey tells us how the Australian media helps government peddle disinformation.
https://johnmenadue.com/australian-media-helps-government-peddle-disinformation/
And Alison Broinowski wonders if News Corp is back to new weapons of mass destruction.
https://johnmenadue.com/back-to-weapons-of-mass-destruction/
Rob Harris reports that business groups and unions are warning of a fresh flood of cheap foreign imports into Australia amid concerns the nation’s anti-dumping authority is not well enough resourced to safeguard domestic industries.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/industry-unions-warn-of-fresh-wave-of-dumped-foreign-imports-20210510-p57qhe.html
The editorial in the AFR reckons the Treasurer should make fiscal repair a budget priority.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/treasurer-should-make-fiscal-repair-a-budget-priority-20210509-p57qay
Jacob Greber reports that the federal government is blaming laggard states, bottlenecks, regulatory hurdles and the chaos of COVID-19 for punching holes in its infrastructure spending plans.
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/australia-s-amazing-disappearing-infrastructure-spend-20210510-p57qh1
The pressure is on Indian prime minister Narendra Modi to impose a nationwide lockdown, as COVID-19 case numbers remain high, bodies wash up on riverbanks and doctors report the spread of a rare fungal infection among victims.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2021/05/11/india-ganges-bodies-river/
Josh Butler writes that the federal government is dangling international travel as an “incentive” for Australians to get vaccinated, even as their allies voice outrage over so-called ‘vaccine passports’.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/05/11/vaccine-travel-passports/
Paul Alexander says that Christine Holgate being announced to head delivery rival Global Express represents Australia Post’s worst nightmare. And he says that it will be bad news for taxpayers.
https://theconversation.com/australia-posts-worst-nightmare-christine-holgate-to-head-delivery-rival-global-express-160606
In this essay, Jack Waterford explores the devil in the detail of identity politics.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-devil-in-the-detail-of-identity-politics/
Chris Barrett writes that joint naval exercises conducted by China and Indonesia off the coast of Jakarta over the weekend are the latest sign of closer ties between the once-feuding nations, following Beijing’s offer to salvage sunken submarine the Nanggala without charge.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/as-china-freezes-out-australia-the-superpower-befriends-indonesia-20210510-p57qjf.html
The company paid $110,000 to conduct an “independent review” into the corporate regulator refused to stand by the Government’s claims that it made no findings of wrongdoing against regulator bosses James Shipton and Daniel Crennan, explains Anthony Klan.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/questions-remain-over-frydenbergs-claims-on-asic-expenses-scandal,15069
Rebecca Thorpe is concerned that the Crown-Star proposal creates potential for more poker machines in a state already awash with them.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/crown-star-proposal-creates-potential-for-more-poker-machines-in-a-state-already-awash-with-them-20210510-p57qf1.html
The casino industry should never be too big to be policed. But inquiries into the sector are pointless unless politicians are prepared to act on their recommendations, says the SMH editorial,
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/casino-ownership-gambits-a-distraction-from-the-main-game-20210510-p57qkv.html
The Resource Super Profits Tax proposed by Kevin Rudd a decade ago was overly complex and not well explained, but there are a few compelling reasons why we should revisit this unfinished tax business, explains Paul Cleary.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/time-to-revisit-australia-s-golden-goose-20210429-p57ne1.html
Are too many businesses failing, or not enough, wonders Adam Triggs.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7245871/are-too-many-businesses-failing-or-not-enough/?cs=14258
Three key new witnesses have come forward to support claims that the cause of the fatal 1979 Luna Park Ghost Train fire was arson. All three witnesses were at Luna Park on the night of the fire but were never contacted or interviewed by NSW Police, and were not included at the 1979 coronial inquest.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/05/10/luna-park-ghost-train-fire-witnesses-come-forward/
John Curtice explains what he says the elections reflected Britain’s deep divisions over Brexit and Scotland’s future.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/10/elections-reflected-britains-deep-divisions-over-brexit-and-scotlands-future
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
Matt Golding
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/c37bdb9e75ca349e7b85cb5573902a8eaf29d50f,jpg
Cathy Wilcox
David Rowe
John Shakespeare
Andrew Dyson
Glen Le Lievre
Mark Knight
John Spooner
From the US
Danama Papers @ #13 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 5:14 am
Yep still going. I watch it more than Netflix now.
Hvaldimir: Seeking sanctuary for whale dubbed a Russian spy
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56956365
Australia’s housing crisis: it’s one of the most unaffordable in the world, so how is the Coalition going to fix it, wonders Jessica Sier.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/11/australias-housing-crisis-its-one-of-the-most-unaffordable-in-the-world-so-how-is-the-coalition-going-to-fix-it
You want to know how bad?
One of my son’s mates, who still lives at home with his parents at age 25 and is saving to buy a house in the area he grew up in, like my son, has calculated that if you want to buy a house around here you will need a $300,000 deposit! 😯
The Coalition, via their policies, are entrenching a class-based society. The class who can afford to buy property and the class who can’t.
And it’s the ones with their foot in the door already who continue to vote for them, plus the ones who get there and who are almost there and who don’t want things to change.
It’s for this selfish reason that Labor’s Negative Gearing policy changes are now political poison. It’s become too entrenched and determinative of people’s behaviour.
Quick check of morning telly and it’s all good news for Scott and Joshy.
Spend spend spend! It’s the new black.
Scotty’s ‘legacy’ is going to be his fixing aged care channel 9 tells me.
If only Labor had spent more they might still be in government.
Kerri Ann Kennely’s head must be about to explode.
Taylormade,
This is a Coalition state:
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/elderly-woman-stuck-in-ambulance-for-hours-outside-adelaide-hospital/ar-BB1gz3TJ?ocid=msedgntp
It’s going to be a weary few days.
mundo says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 7:32 am
Quick check of morning telly and it’s all good news for Scott and Joshy.
Spend spend spend! It’s the new black.
Scotty’s ‘legacy’ is going to be his fixing aged care channel 9 tells me.
If only Labor had spent more they might still be in government.
Kerri Ann Kennely’s head must be about to explode.
——————–
Coalition supporters claim Morrison is spitting on them, yet they are still voting for the lib/nats
Maybe Albanese should do the same, and with luck apart from the rusted ons lib/nats, some might turn to labor
As I was saying(as above, so below):
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/johnsons-lesson-for-labour-politics-is-not-a-consumer-product/ar-BB1gyrWE?ocid=msedgntp
C@t
Not great, but at least the ambulance got to her. As opposed to dying on her bathroom floor after waiting 6 hours for one.
Good luck Poroti
Morning all. Thanks BK. Nothing about the Liberal debt tsunami in any Newscorp publications? Shocked, I am. To give credit where credit is due Pascoe and Bongiorno do highlight the gap between budget promises and reality.
Poroti
Best wishes and a speedy recovery. Being under sedation is probably the ideal state to be in while Josh prattles off his budget spin. Talk to you soon.
To help the country, am thinking about buying a new metal detector with my pandemic savings.
Minelab GPX6000.
But getting my driveway pulled up and reconcreted would be more sensible.
lizzie @ #23 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 7:41 am
The trick is to not watch/listen.
I’ve now gone into media blackout for 3 days.
I’ve seen enough of Josh ‘Wonder Boy’ Frydenberg in the last 30 minutes than I ever needed to.
Good luck everyone!
Remember, only a few more years to go, hopefully.
My greatest disappointment is with all those posters who were so certain last year that this is when the wheels were going the to fall off the Scotty Mobile.
Instead they’re being pumped up.
Best of luck, Poroti. One of PB’s shining lights.
Taylormade @ #29 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 7:57 am
Or you could do what Labor people do when they have so much wealth that it embarrasses them and donate your excess money to women and children fleeing domestic violence who need somewhere safe to live. 🙂
Cat,
The Guardian article is incorrect.
While it is prudent that buyers have a 20% deposit plus settlement costs, Lenders will accept 5% deposit. However, buyers are the up for Lenders Mortgage Insurance which can be capitalised in to the loan. In effect borrowers can access up to 92% plus the approximate 3% for LMI.
I always suggest buyers bring 10% minimum to a deal.
It then becomes a matter of on going servicing of the loan.
The Government brought in a scheme where FHBs could borrow up to 95% effectively underwriting the LMI. But,the Lenders have channeled this scheme to new construction and there is a huge waiting list.
This latest scheme is a false hope. A single mother with children and on benefits borrowing $600k is a fantasy.
poroti
Best wishes, mate.
I promise that in 7-10 days time I will have some fresh stories to tell you about the good things the nice Mr Xi has done.
Dammit. I knew I should have turned left at Albuquerque.
Poroti… with a bit of luck, you’ll have a good phone/tablet signal.
Be kind to the nurses. Best wishes for a swift recovery. 😇
mundo @ #30 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 7:58 am
mundo,
If you read that article about the lesson that Boris Johnson (Trump and Morrison too), have brought to politics you may understand better why Labor have a mountain to climb.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/10/retail-politics-movements-polarising-projects-promise
Not that I’m giving up the fight. However, expecting the spell to be broken with a few snappy one-liners by Labor is not the solution. As the article outlines, Labor have to create a new movement that people want to sign up to. Something like capitalism with a heart.
Which the Coalition have cottoned onto, btw, and is why their Budget is being described as Labor-lite. So Labor can’t allow them to steal their thunder and need to keep reminding everyone where the ideas that the Coalition keep nicking actually come from. I think it’s their only path to success.
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
Greensborough Growler @ #33 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 8:00 am
GG,
I think the problem is that the Borrowers, ie my son and his mate, are both Single Men and banks seem to prefer to lend to dual income borrowers. What you correctly characterise as ‘ongoing servicing of the loan’. 🙂
Cleaning out the study I found an old iPod Classic, complete with all the original packaging, instructions etc. Googling what I could charge if I sold it, I found that they can sell for thousands of dollars, and one sold a few years ago for $90,000! WTF?!
Morrison and his cronies are still going to refuse to offer help for those who are 35 and over to find jobs, these people seem to continue to be thrown into the scrap heap
Confessions @ #39 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 8:14 am
How to make your fortune in the new economy. 😀
I have a mint condition Oz #1 comic (the famous Australian publication of the 1960s, think Martin Sharp et al) but I don’t know who to take it to in order to get a decent price for it. So it sits in my cupboard gathering dust along with the hand-illustrated art deco Australian Fungi book. 🙂
C@t:
Same with me only antique furniture that OH has inherited. Harder to sell so it just sits in the house taking up space. I’d love to be able to get rid of it all, but have no idea where to start with valuing, and valuer options are limited here.
‘fess,
And I see conflicting opinions about their worth when I go on the internet to try and research about them. So I end up going around in circles and giving up!
Chuckle. It’s so hard to get excited about Budget Day.
Josh’s monotonic reading of his “how good is the budget?” cue cards this morning was anything but exciting.
lizzie @ #46 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 8:28 am
As I said a media blackout is the only way!
Could someone watch A Current Affair for me please.
They’re doing a story on the ‘NBN Shambles’
Love to know who carries the can.
Bet it won’t be Malcolm or Tony.
Bluebottle @ #47 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 8:33 am
And they said Wayne was dull.
Still everything bad is now good.
And everything good is now bad.
It’s a topsy turvy mixed up Liberal Party world we’re living in.
Lewis Carrol eat your heart out.